1. Avoid the Unmanageable, Manage the Unavoidable
What can we expect from the climate in the coming decades, and what can we do?
J. H. Plumb Auditorium, Christ’s College, Thursdays, 5:30 to 7 pm
Jan 16: Introduction
Brief history of climate research, focusing on the relationship between atmospheric abundance
of CO2 and global temperature over time, and fundamental truths about the long-term future
Jan 23: Impacts of Climate Change
Can we infer from today’s changes and climate models what tomorrow’s world might look like?
Regional weather patterns, water availability, floods, drought, wildfires
Impacts on agriculture, ecology, human disease, regional technical systems
Jan 30: What we can do right away and what we still will have to adapt to
The failure of the climate negotiations, the inertia of the of the global energy system; slowing the rate of climate
change by working with short-lived climate pollutants; why we cannot avoid 2 degC warming at mid-century
Feb 13: Sea Level Rise, Coastal Cities, and Wetlands
Factors affecting rates of global and local sea level rise
How advanced regions are preparing-Venice, the Netherlands, Sacramento Bay-Delta
Vulnerable cities, agricultural river deltas, low-lying island nations
Feb 20: California and the Arctic
The first and most advanced regional assessments
Impacts on regional natural systems, regional technical systems, and populations
Assessments-the first step in adaptive management
Feb 27: Adaptive Management of Climate Change
The essential role of assessment in the adaptive management of complex systems; the regional specificity of
climate change impacts; the critical role of local communities; the complexity of knowledge assembly for regional
and local decision‐support; the need to encourage timely decisions; and the capacity problem. “Knowledge Action
Networks” comprising international experts and local decision‐makers can inform and motivate good decisions