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McKinsey & Company
Taco Bell Expansion Strategy
Fall 2015
2
Travel Team
Colin Lillibridge
▪ Junior
▪ Finance and
Economics
▪ Duncan Hall
Nathaniel Marti
▪ Junior
▪ Finance and
Med. Studies
▪ The Manor
Timothy Machasio
▪ Sophomore
▪ Finance and
ACMS
▪ O’Neil Hall
Maria Marquez
▪ Freshman
▪ Mechanical
Engineering
▪ Lewis Hall
Jens Munthe-Kaas
▪ Sophomore
▪ Political
Science
▪ Off-Campus
Helen Sheng
▪ Junior
▪ IT Management
▪ Badin Hall
Dan Murphy
▪ Sophomore
▪ Mech. Eng. and
ACMS
▪ Dillon Hall
Rachel Oberst
▪ Sophomore
▪ Finance and
Spanish
▪ Ryan Hall
Chang Woo Jung
▪ Sophomore
▪ ITM and
Chinese
▪ Off-Campus
Edward Murphy
▪ Freshman
▪ Finance and
Economics
▪ Duncan Hall
3
Executive Summary
• Taco Bell is the leading Mexican style fast food
provider in the United States, and a major division
of Yum! Brands
Client
• The company occupies a strong position in the
$220B U.S. fast food market
• “Fast casual” represents a growth concept for Taco
Bell to consider in its short- and long-term business
strategy
Situation
• Taco Bell should enter fast casual as a strategically
aligned opportunity with high profit potential
• It should do so by acquiring a separate brand, to
mitigate against current customer perceptions and
execution risk
Recommendation
4
OBJECTIVE:
TACO BELL GROWTH STRATEGY
Fast Food Industry
Performance & Outlook
Taco Bell Overview and
Position
Fast Casual Industry
Performance & Outlook
RECOMMENDATION:
FAST CASUAL MARKET ENTRY
Feasibility Strategy
Moving Forward
Fast Food Investment
Potential
Fast Casual Investment
Potential
5Source: IBIS World – Fast food market
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019 2021
%change
Revenue Employment
• Key drivers: increased costs and expenses, healthy
eating index, and consumer confidence
• Growth will remain flat into the future – the industry
is a matured market
• Stagnant domestic profits will lead to further
expansion into foreign markets
• In response, traditional market players attempt to
shift appeal towards millennials:
• Healthier and more customizable products
• Digitization, including mobile apps
Industry Outlook
McDonalds
16%
Yum
9%
Subway
6%
Wendys
4%
Burger King
4%
Chick-fil-a
2%
Other
59%
• Average profit margin of 5.1% - expected to remain
about the same over the next 5 years
• Purchases expected to become more expensive as
global demand forces produce prices upward
• Industry wage costs consume 25% of revenue,
expected to increase into the future
• Marketing expenses increase as companies attempt to
engage consumers on new platforms like mobile apps
and music streaming websites
• Tough competition in monopolistic competition
environment
Cost Structure Benchmarks
Fast Food: A Stagnant and Fragmented Industry
YOY Revenue and Employment Growth
Competitive Landscape
6
OBJECTIVE:
TACO BELL GROWTH STRATEGY
Fast Food Industry
Performance & Outlook
Taco Bell Overview and
Position
Fast Casual Industry
Performance & Outlook
RECOMMENDATION:
FAST CASUAL MARKET ENTRY
Feasibility Strategy
Moving Forward
Fast Food Investment
Potential
Fast Casual Investment
Potential
7Source: Business Insights; http://www.yum.com/investors/addl_info.asp
Taco Bell occupies a strong strategic position
within the fast food market
1946
Glen opens the
first Taco Bell in
Downey,
California.
1965
1st International
Expansion into
Japan
2007
Re-enters the Mexican
market by positioning
its restaurants as
American fast food
2013
International and U.S.
divisions are
combined; China and
India remain separate
1978
PepsiCo
purchases Taco
Bell
2003
Company opens
its first unit in
China
Timeline
Key Executives
▪ Brian R. Niccol, CEO
▪ Liz Williams, CFO
▪ Melissa Lora, President of Taco Bell International
Current Position
▪ Total Revenue (Franchisee and Corporate): $8.2B
▪ Revenue as a percent of total fast food market:
▪ At the end of 2014, there were 6199 store
worldwide (5921 US & 278 international)
Management Objectives
▪ Become the largest fast food provide of Mexican
style cuisine in emerging markets
▪ Become the most recognizable Mexican food brand
in the world
Mission Statement
“We take pride in making the best Mexican style fast
food providing fast, friendly, & accurate service.”
SWOT Analysis
Management & Current Position & Goals
Strengths
• Cheap and value meal
• Americanized taste
• Fast and convenient
service
Opportunities
• Emerging Markets: Latin
America, Continental
Europe, Russia
Weaknesses
• Obtains nearly all sales
in US – little
international exposure
Threats
• Change in consumer
preferences
• Stagnation in fast food
market growth
Taco Bell leads the U.S. Mexican style fast food segment, with a roughly 3.6% share of the
$221 billion U.S. fast food market
8
Taco Bell is a key part of YUM! Brands, and was
its only profitable division in 2014
$0 B
$1 B
$2 B
$3 B
$4 B
$5 B
$6 B
$7 B
$8 B
2014 2013 2012 2011 2010
Company sales Franchisee sales
CAGR: (6%)
CAGR: 7%
Source: Business Insights; http://www.yum.com/investors/addl_info.asp
One of Three YUM! Divisions
Divisional Restaurant Per Store ProfitTaco Bell – US Sales
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
 Taco Bell has highest profit margin per location,
but its performance is falling due to changing
market trends
 It is the smallest division in YUM! by store count,
and has the smallest growth domestically and
internationally
 Recently, diminishing margins in Chinese segments
contributed to decreasing operating profit
 KFC continues to be the cash cow of YUM!, both
domestically and internationally
$-
$200
$400
$600
$800
$1,000
$1,200
$1,400
$1,600
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Taco Bell KFC Pizza Hut
Stores CAGR Margins
Taco Bell 6,199 1% 18.90%
KFC 14,197 1% 8.20%
Pizza Hut 13,602 2% 8.20%
9Sources: Business Insights Essentials, Forbes, YUM! Brands Investor Relations, Wall Street Journal, IBIS World
Overall trend line points downward for Taco
Bell, but profit margins increase
 Operating profit increased by 5 % in 2014
 Sales increased by 7% - driven by 3% unit growth
and 4% same-store sales growth
 62 new restaurants; 81% of these new units were
opened by franchisees
 Restaurant margin improvement – leverage of G&A
cost
 Stabilizing factor in YUM! Brands
 Increased capital expenditures as Taco Bell
continues to expand
 Positive outlook for 2015
 Spin-off from YUM! discussed by analysts
 At the end of 2014, of the 6,314 stores worldwide:
 5921 in the United States
 278 internationally
Key Developments
(in $ mm) 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
REVENUE $2,119 $2,109 $1,869 $1,863 $1,923
OPERATING PROFIT $384 $435 $456 $480 $520
PROFIT MARGIN 15.3% 18.2% 19.5% 18.9% 21.4%
$0
$500
$1,000
$1,500
$2,000
$2,500
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
REVENUES OPERATING EXPENSES
Taco Bell Five Year Summary ($m)
10Source: Huffington Post, Mobile Commerce Daily, National Restaurant News, Wall Street Journal
Current efforts for brand modernization
include tech and menu initiatives
While serious concerns still exist about the quality of Taco Bell, the restaurant has taken significant steps to evolve its
brand. Integration of mobile and online ordering, a move to healthier and more humane egg supplies, and increased
transparency about beef recipes have begun the process of brand transformation
 In November 2015, Taco Bell announced a switch to
cage free eggs by the end of 2016
 Taco Bell now leads the race for cage free eggs
 Burger King end of 2017
 McDonald’s within the next decade
 Starbucks and Panera Bread by 2020
Cage Free EggsMobile and Online Ordering
 In late 2014, released mobile app for online ordering
 Upon release, customers using the app spent
$10+ per visit – 20% more than they spent in
store
 With 3.7 million app downloads, users now
spend 30% more than they do in store on
average
 In late 2015, Taco Bell launched its new website:
Ta.co
 Estimated 5mm unique visits per month
 Integration of a loyalty program and DoorDash
delivery
 Enhanced customization and menu accessibility
 70% of Taco Bell customers customize their
order
 Cost in increased ordering time, personalized
suggestions; $0.30+ charged per each add on
Brand Modernization
Integration of
Technology
Use of Higher
Quality
Ingredients
Ingredient
Transparency
Improved
Brand
Perception
 In 2011, a lawsuit against Taco Bell brought the
restaurant’s beef under scrutiny
 In response, Taco Bell released information on the
content of its beef
 88% beef; 12% seasoning, spices, water, and
other ingredients (Called “Signature Recipe”)
 In 2014, Taco Bell launched a new beef transparency
module detailing the contents of Taco Bell’s beef
Beef Transparency
11Sources: QSR Web, Mobile Commerce Daily
Breakfast presents an attractive current
investment opportunity for Taco Bell
Breakfast Menu Release
• Breakfast launched on March 27, 2014
• Expansion of customer engagement and brand
loyalty
• Expanding beyond signature Fourth Meal
• Accessing the McDonald’s-dominated QSR breakfast
market
Taco Bell Same-Store Sales Growth
The successful rollout of Taco Bell breakfast menu indicates strong brand loyalty, healthy profit margins, and potential for
future expansion. Given this success, breakfast represents an especially promising current opportunity for the company
• The successful launch of the Taco-Bell breakfast menu
contributed to same-store sales growth
• Strong margins central to initiative profitability
• Notably, gains in same-store sales have declined since
the post-rollout spike
Quick Statistics
• Approximate Margins on
Breakfast
21%
• Breakfast Share of Total
Sales
6%
Sunday, Monday and Tuesday breakfast sales
exceed late-night Fourth Meal -2%
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
Q1
2013
Q2
2013
Q3
2013
Q4
2013
Q1
2014
Q2
2014
Q3
2014
Q4
2014
Q1
2015
Q2
2015
Q3
2015
Breakfast
rollout –
March 2014
Outcomes
12
OBJECTIVE:
TACO BELL GROWTH STRATEGY
Fast Food Industry
Performance & Outlook
Taco Bell Overview and
Position
Fast Casual Industry
Performance & Outlook
RECOMMENDATION:
FAST CASUAL MARKET ENTRY
Feasibility Strategy
Moving Forward
Fast Food Investment
Potential
Fast Casual Investment
Potential
13Taco Bell Franchise, LA Times, The Motley Fool, Yum! Brands Investor Relations, QSR Web, Mobile Commerce Daily
Expanding breakfast as a best option displays some growth
potential within an already crowded segment
5.5% Franchise Royalty
Income
CURRENT RELEVANT MARKET SIZE:
$34.5B FF Breakfast
Market
4.9M Taco Bell
Breakfast Sales
TACO BELL BREAKFAST EXPANSION
ASSUMPTIONS:
Capture 2% of FF
Breakfast Market in next
year
$38M NET PROFIT OPPORTUNITY IN
THE NEXT YEAR
FINANCIAL DATA
• $8.2B in U.S. system wide sales for Taco Bell in 2014
• Breakfast items comprise 6% of Taco Bell sales
• ~$490M in annual breakfast sales
• $34.5B FF breakfast market
• ~1.4% current FF breakfast market share
• 5.5% franchise royalty fee
• 21% margins on breakfast items
FRANCHISING
Although 14.5% of Taco Bell stores are company owned,
the model assumes all stores are owned by franchisees.
Franchisees pay a 5.5% royalty on all sales
SENSITIVITY
Within one year, we assume Taco Bell can expand its
share of the FF breakfast market to X%.
• 1.4% of market would yield $27M in annual profits
• 2.0% of market would yield $38M in annual profits
• 2.6% of market would yield $49M in annual profits
KEY ASSUMPTIONS IN BREAKFAST
EXPANSION MODEL
1.4% FF Breakfast Market Share
PROFIT POTENTIAL OF TACO BELL
BREAKFAST EXPANSION
14
OBJECTIVE:
TACO BELL GROWTH STRATEGY
Fast Food Industry
Performance & Outlook
Taco Bell Overview and
Position
Fast Casual Industry
Performance & Outlook
RECOMMENDATION:
FAST CASUAL MARKET ENTRY
Feasibility Strategy
Moving Forward
Fast Food Investment
Potential
Fast Casual Investment
Potential
15
While comparatively small, fast casual industry is
characterized by quick expansion
QSR Magazine; National Restaurant Association
0
10
20
30
40
50
Sales($bn)
Best Case Base Case Worst Case
Fast Casual
$30bn market size (revenue)
 Delivering fresh food
 Provide a high level of customization
 Balance price and experience
 Cultivate high level of customization
• 550 % growth since 1999; 10x the growth of
fast food
YOY Change in Consumer Traffic Forecasted Industry Sales for Fast Casual
-4%
-2%
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Quick Service Restaurants (Excluding Retail and Casual)
Retail
Fast Casual
Consumer preference for Mexican FC:
 Mexican 28 %
 Hamburger 25 %
 Other sandwich 23 %
 Chicken 13 %
 Pizza 10 %
 Bakery and café 1 %
Segmentation of fast casual by concept
16Statista; Washinton Post; Wall Street Journal; Scarborough Research
Millennials are “perceptionists”—and fast casual
is characterized by image and experience
Perception & image are two of the most important
factors in the establishment of fast casual chains.
Existing fast casual customers are more likely to
refer to fast food as “gross” or “unappealing.”
Related to status
Overall Trends:
- Generational shift in consumer trends
has opened up market for increased
quality proposition
- Fast casual chains are running out of
white space; overseas expansion
imminent?
- Average check between $8-9; fast
food chains average $5.3
- Concerns about impact of increasing
meat prices and labor costs
- Answer from the fast food industry
has been increased customization;
McDonalds build-your-own-burger •Fast food chains
pride themselves
on efficiency;
fast casual is an
experience
•High level of
customization;
are you expected
to customize?
•Fresh and
healthy options;
i.e. can you see
the process?
•Locally sourced
foods; related to
perception
Local Healthy
ExperienceVaried
Educated
Urban
lifestyle
Health
conscious
Aged 20-40
Infrequent
fast food
consumers
Shifting perceptions translate to restaurant
segment growth differentials
Source: IBIS World
Overall, today’s restaurant industry is in a
mature market stage. Total revenue
remains about the same, while profit
generation requires extra investment on
non-price factors like new customer
trends
U.S RESTAURANT INDUSTRY
Segment Avg. Operating
Profit (’14)
Market Share
Fast food 11 - 13 % 31 %
Fast casual 6 – 7 % 9 %
Casual dining 4 – 5.5 % 24 %
Family dining 6.5 – 8.1 % 21 %
Casual
Dining
Segment
•1.8 %
Fast-food
segment
•3.5 %
Fast-casual
segment
•9.5 %
Increased costs of ingredients add industry pressure
Consumer trend of preferring healthier options
Purchase not rooted in calories, but brand perception
Increased labor costs add pressure to franchises
Distress levels are at record low
17
Segment GrowthKey Industry Comparisons
18Business Insights, Yum! Brands Investor Relations, QSR Magazine
Among all quick service restaurants, fast casual presents
an increasing threat to fast food industry health
McDonald's
32%
Subway
11%
Panera Bread
Starbucks
1%
Burger King
8%
Dunkin' Donuts
6%
Chipotle
3%
Wendy's
8%
Taco Bell
7%
Pizza Hut
5%
KFC
4%
Carl's Jr./
Hardee's
Sonic Drive-In
3%
Domno's Pizza
3%
Chick-fil-A
5%
QSR Magazine Rankings
• QSR 50 Ranking#6
• Mexican Segment
Rank#1
Taco Bell has a strong position within the Fast Food industry, specifically the Mexican segment. Chipotle, however, has
made gains in the Mexican QSR space. Increase in healthy eating habits threatens the fast-food industry as a whole
Quick Service Restaurant Market Breakdown:
• Revenues have declined and remained
relatively flat in the past four years.
• With increasing margins, and strong sales
growth, Taco Bell remains a major player in the
QSR restaurant.
• Taco Bell still dominates the Quick Service
Restaurant Mexican Segment.
• Chipotle (QSR 50 Ranking #15) is showing
strong growth in the Mexican Segment with a
#2 Ranking
19
OBJECTIVE:
TACO BELL GROWTH STRATEGY
Fast Food Industry
Performance & Outlook
Taco Bell Overview and
Position
Fast Casual Industry
Performance & Outlook
RECOMMENDATION:
FAST CASUAL MARKET ENTRY
Feasibility Strategy
Moving Forward
Fast Food Investment
Potential
Fast Casual Investment
Potential
20
FC option shows significant profit potential, but financial
and customer experience cost factors are key
Achieve ~7% margin
based on industry
standard
CURRENT RELEVANT MARKET SIZE:
$30B in total FC sales 23% Mexican Concept
TACO BELL FC ENTRY SCENARIO
ASSUMPTIONS:
Capture ~10% of FC
Mexican Concept
$48.3M NET PROFIT OPPORTUNITY
RE-BRANDING & ADVERTISEMENT
Studies on millennial generation’s spending habits and
restaurant preferences indicate that a thorough process
of changing brand perception is necessary in order to
penetrate the market. Such rebranding could require
additional expenditure on advertisement and promotion.
NEW STORE vs. REMODELING
U.S. Taco Co was a $500,000 investment during its year
in business. Wendy’s previously launched incentive-
program for existing franchise owners to remodel their
stores as estimates indicated a potential increase of 5-
10 % in restaurant sales.
CANNIBALIZATION
Although fast-casual restaurant customers spend about
40 % more per visit, the adjusted amount of money
spent is difficult to assess as there are no companies
that have recorded the full effect of a switch. There is
a danger of cannibalization.
ADDITIONAL COST FACTORS IN FAST
CASUAL SWITCH
$6.9B Potential Market Share
ESTIMATED PROFIT POTENTIAL OF TACO
BELL FAST CASUAL
Sources: QSR Web, Mobile Commerce Daily, Business Insights
21
OBJECTIVE:
TACO BELL GROWTH STRATEGY
Fast Food Industry
Performance & Outlook
Taco Bell Overview and
Position
Fast Casual Industry
Performance & Outlook
RECOMMENDATION:
FAST CASUAL MARKET ENTRY
Feasibility Strategy
Moving Forward
Fast Food Investment
Potential
Fast Casual Investment
Potential
22Source: Mintel
Market
Penetration
1
Product
Penetration
2
Market
Development
3
Diversification
4
New ProductSame Product
New
Customers
Same
Customers
Why an acquisition
• Growth of 26.7% is predicted from 2013-
18, reaching $38 billion in 2018
• US social trend toward eating healthy
• Taco Bell’s current image will detract
from its effectiveness in the fast casual
market
• Entering fast casual under a different
name gives substantial risk mitigation;
core brand will not suffer negative
externalities
Alternative ways of entering fast casual
1. Develop FC internally and launch a new
brand
2. Develop FC internally and introduce
under current brand
3. Expand in untapped markets to target
new customer segments
4. Inorganic entry, through acquisition
Counterarguments to address
• Competitors and case studies include
failures
• Barrier perceptions surrounding Taco Bell
are too strong and negative
• Strong competitors in Mexican fast casual
• Lower profit margins; increasing costs
• Fast food market is still much larger than
fast casual
• Execution/startup risk (will Taco Bell
deliver a good product?)
CONCLUSION:
Taco Bell should enter fast casual market through
an acquisition
Recommendation: Taco Bell should enter the
fast casual industry through acquisition
23
OBJECTIVE:
TACO BELL GROWTH STRATEGY
Fast Food Industry
Performance & Outlook
Taco Bell Overview and
Position
Fast Casual Industry
Performance & Outlook
RECOMMENDATION:
FAST CASUAL MARKET ENTRY
Feasibility Strategy
Moving Forward
Fast Food Investment
Potential
Fast Casual Investment
Potential
24
Negative brand perceptions are barrier to be
addressed in fast casual entry
CHEAP VALUE MEAL
AMERICANIZED TASTE
FAST & CONVENIENT
UNHEALTHY & LOW QUALITY
Positive Reaction Negative Reaction
Sources: Armitage, Brand Audit for Taco Bell
NO ATHENTICITY
• Traditional “Quick Service Restaurant” (QSR)
• Offers “Fourth meal,” enables order after
midnight
• Drive thru, Taco Bell mobile application
• Majority of sales based on take-out
• Relatively low investment into store interior
• Minimum or no in-store dining service and
workforce
CHEAP & BAD DINE-IN
• Menu variety includes tacos, burritos, etc.
• “Americanized,” or “Tex-Mex-Style” food
• American adoption of popular Mexican foods
like the Cantina Bowl
• Bad choice for authentic Mexican food
• Relatively small amount of vegetables
• Ingredients substituted according to price
and Taco Bell’s own recipe
• Nationwide restaurant distribution
• Relatively low prices
• Promotional value meal deals like Big Box
• Cheap price and quick service imply low
quality food, fail to attract older customers
• Growing concerns about healthy eating
damage Taco Bell’s brand image
NBC News
25Business Insider
Comparable cases present compelling argument for brand
departure when entering the fast casual market
Super Chix Company Overview
• An exploratory venture by YUM! Brands; started in
2014
• Company Slogan:
“The Last True Chicken Sandwich”
Menu
Outcome
• Scored 4 out of 5 stars on Yelp.
• Opened 3 locations within 1 year
• Recognized as top competitor with Chick Fil-A
• Sold company to Christophe P., Nick O. & Jeff. S.
• Straightforward food options: nuggets, salads,
sandwiches
• Emphasis on high quality ingredients prepared with
integrity
• “We only use the highest quality potatoes”
• In accordance with growing trend against genetically
modified ingredients.
• Madagascar Bourbon Vanilla Beans
KFC 11 Company Overview
Menu
• KFC’s Fast Casual Counterpart, opened August 2013
in Louisville, Kentucky
• Encourages slow paced
dining that is convenient.
• Global Cuisine- flavors like Sweet Orange Ginger,
Caribbean Tango and Southwestern Baja
• Salad, Flatbreads, “Crispy Bites”, Rice Bowls
• Emphasis on fresh, healthy, and sophisticated
options
• Mashed potatoes: “Now they're "smashed"
and infused with garlic”
• Items not available: fried chicken bucket and KFC
signature biscuits
• Entrée Prices: $4.99-$6.99
Outcome
• Closed after a year
• Scored 3 out of 5 stars on Yelp
26
OBJECTIVE:
TACO BELL GROWTH STRATEGY
Fast Food Industry
Performance & Outlook
Taco Bell Overview and
Position
Fast Casual Industry
Performance & Outlook
RECOMMENDATION:
FAST CASUAL MARKET ENTRY
Feasibility Strategy
Moving Forward
Fast Food Investment
Potential
Fast Casual Investment
Potential
Important factors to consider in acquisition
• Scalability –
e.g., from
regional to
national
• Expertise in fast
casual
• Cultural alignment
• Product quality
• Customer
loyalty
• Fair multiple
• Cost,
distribution, or
sourcing
synergies
Attractive
Price
Brand
Strength
Expansion
Potential
Effective
Management
27
CONCLUSION
Conclusion: Taco Bell should look to enter the fast
casual market through acquisition
Given these findings, and taking into account the company’s current
investment opportunities and management objectives within fast food, we
believe a fast casual market entry presents high upside potential and makes
long-term strategic sense for Taco Bell
Ultimately
Strategic Rationale
Feasibility and Execution
 Overall market saturation of Fast Food industry
 Continuing market growth of Fast Casual industry
 Growth story and consumer trends drive compelling profit potential
 Strategic alignment demonstrated in past attempts to introduce fast
casual concepts
 Inorganic entry represents a feasible option in response to barrier
perceptions concern and execution risk
APPENDIX
31Sources: Taco Bell, Business Insider, Nation’s Restaurant News
A Case Study: Taco Bell Cantina demonstrates
management’s interest in a fast casual entry
 Taco Bell Cantina opened in Chicago’s Wicker Park
neighborhood on Tuesday September 22, 2015
 San Francisco location will open later this month
 Taco Bell Cantina serves alcoholic beverages
 Alcoholic beverages retain Taco Bell branding
 Twisted Freezes (Similar to Baja Blast)
 Twisted Freezes range from $6.19 to $7.19
depending on the choice of alcohol
 Large increase in price point
Taco Bell is currently experimenting with a fast casual restaurant concept that places itself in direct competition with the
likes of Chipotle and Qdoba. This initiative reflects its plans to expand, as well as the stresses put on the brand by new
initiatives such as the Taco Bell Cantina restaurant. The success of Taco Bell Cantina depends on its ability to adapt its brand.
Urbanization Localization
Green Transparency
Digitization
5 Consumer TrendsNew Taco Bell Fast Casual Restaurant
▪ Taco Bell’s new Cantina restaurant integrates the
preceding five consumer trends into the existing
brand
▪ Drive thru window replaced by walkup window
▪ New Taco Bell units have lower costs
▪ Reduced square footage
▪ Recycled materials
▪ Open kitchen design increases transparency
▪ Fresher ingredients are used in food
▪ Base menu stays same with Taco Bell classics
32Mobile Commerce Daily, National Restaurant News
In Absence of Fast Casual: Alternative investment
options for Taco Bell
Taco Bell has already made efforts at menu expansion and improvement, digitization, delivery and customization, and brand
redevelopment. These initiatives have improved Taco Bell’s performance. However, costs of these initiatives, potential for
limited impact, and possible loss of customers lead us to recommend an entry into Fast Casual through acquisition.
Menu
Expansion and
Upscaling
Delivery and
Customization
Digitization
Marketing and
Brand
Redevelopment
Entry into Fast
Casual
Menu Expansion and Upgrade
 Expansion of successful offerings
 Further capitalization on breakfast menu success
 Continued development and release of new products
 Potentially high costs of development
 Diminishing impact of continued menu development
 Marketing expenditures on new product lines
Digitization
 Release of mobile app and website (Ta.co)
 3.7 million app downloads and 5 million monthly
visitors to website
 Mobile and web customers spend more than average
in-store customer
 Digitization already in process
Delivery and Customization
 Integration of DoorDash delivery with website and app
 Online ordering enhances customization options
 70% of Taco Bell customers customize their order
 Higher labor and ingredient costs associated with less
uniform orders
 Limited impact on the business with small investment
Marketing and Brand Redevelopment
 Taco Bell is currently improving brand image with
quality ingredient initiatives
 Upscale brand showcased in Taco Bell Cantina
 Deeply ingrained negative perceptions and stream of
undesirable publicity surrounding Taco Bell
 Risk of alienating loyal customers and losing sales in
lower quality fast-food segment

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McK_SIBC Taco Bell Final

  • 1. McKinsey & Company Taco Bell Expansion Strategy Fall 2015
  • 2. 2 Travel Team Colin Lillibridge ▪ Junior ▪ Finance and Economics ▪ Duncan Hall Nathaniel Marti ▪ Junior ▪ Finance and Med. Studies ▪ The Manor Timothy Machasio ▪ Sophomore ▪ Finance and ACMS ▪ O’Neil Hall Maria Marquez ▪ Freshman ▪ Mechanical Engineering ▪ Lewis Hall Jens Munthe-Kaas ▪ Sophomore ▪ Political Science ▪ Off-Campus Helen Sheng ▪ Junior ▪ IT Management ▪ Badin Hall Dan Murphy ▪ Sophomore ▪ Mech. Eng. and ACMS ▪ Dillon Hall Rachel Oberst ▪ Sophomore ▪ Finance and Spanish ▪ Ryan Hall Chang Woo Jung ▪ Sophomore ▪ ITM and Chinese ▪ Off-Campus Edward Murphy ▪ Freshman ▪ Finance and Economics ▪ Duncan Hall
  • 3. 3 Executive Summary • Taco Bell is the leading Mexican style fast food provider in the United States, and a major division of Yum! Brands Client • The company occupies a strong position in the $220B U.S. fast food market • “Fast casual” represents a growth concept for Taco Bell to consider in its short- and long-term business strategy Situation • Taco Bell should enter fast casual as a strategically aligned opportunity with high profit potential • It should do so by acquiring a separate brand, to mitigate against current customer perceptions and execution risk Recommendation
  • 4. 4 OBJECTIVE: TACO BELL GROWTH STRATEGY Fast Food Industry Performance & Outlook Taco Bell Overview and Position Fast Casual Industry Performance & Outlook RECOMMENDATION: FAST CASUAL MARKET ENTRY Feasibility Strategy Moving Forward Fast Food Investment Potential Fast Casual Investment Potential
  • 5. 5Source: IBIS World – Fast food market -4 -2 0 2 4 6 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019 2021 %change Revenue Employment • Key drivers: increased costs and expenses, healthy eating index, and consumer confidence • Growth will remain flat into the future – the industry is a matured market • Stagnant domestic profits will lead to further expansion into foreign markets • In response, traditional market players attempt to shift appeal towards millennials: • Healthier and more customizable products • Digitization, including mobile apps Industry Outlook McDonalds 16% Yum 9% Subway 6% Wendys 4% Burger King 4% Chick-fil-a 2% Other 59% • Average profit margin of 5.1% - expected to remain about the same over the next 5 years • Purchases expected to become more expensive as global demand forces produce prices upward • Industry wage costs consume 25% of revenue, expected to increase into the future • Marketing expenses increase as companies attempt to engage consumers on new platforms like mobile apps and music streaming websites • Tough competition in monopolistic competition environment Cost Structure Benchmarks Fast Food: A Stagnant and Fragmented Industry YOY Revenue and Employment Growth Competitive Landscape
  • 6. 6 OBJECTIVE: TACO BELL GROWTH STRATEGY Fast Food Industry Performance & Outlook Taco Bell Overview and Position Fast Casual Industry Performance & Outlook RECOMMENDATION: FAST CASUAL MARKET ENTRY Feasibility Strategy Moving Forward Fast Food Investment Potential Fast Casual Investment Potential
  • 7. 7Source: Business Insights; http://www.yum.com/investors/addl_info.asp Taco Bell occupies a strong strategic position within the fast food market 1946 Glen opens the first Taco Bell in Downey, California. 1965 1st International Expansion into Japan 2007 Re-enters the Mexican market by positioning its restaurants as American fast food 2013 International and U.S. divisions are combined; China and India remain separate 1978 PepsiCo purchases Taco Bell 2003 Company opens its first unit in China Timeline Key Executives ▪ Brian R. Niccol, CEO ▪ Liz Williams, CFO ▪ Melissa Lora, President of Taco Bell International Current Position ▪ Total Revenue (Franchisee and Corporate): $8.2B ▪ Revenue as a percent of total fast food market: ▪ At the end of 2014, there were 6199 store worldwide (5921 US & 278 international) Management Objectives ▪ Become the largest fast food provide of Mexican style cuisine in emerging markets ▪ Become the most recognizable Mexican food brand in the world Mission Statement “We take pride in making the best Mexican style fast food providing fast, friendly, & accurate service.” SWOT Analysis Management & Current Position & Goals Strengths • Cheap and value meal • Americanized taste • Fast and convenient service Opportunities • Emerging Markets: Latin America, Continental Europe, Russia Weaknesses • Obtains nearly all sales in US – little international exposure Threats • Change in consumer preferences • Stagnation in fast food market growth Taco Bell leads the U.S. Mexican style fast food segment, with a roughly 3.6% share of the $221 billion U.S. fast food market
  • 8. 8 Taco Bell is a key part of YUM! Brands, and was its only profitable division in 2014 $0 B $1 B $2 B $3 B $4 B $5 B $6 B $7 B $8 B 2014 2013 2012 2011 2010 Company sales Franchisee sales CAGR: (6%) CAGR: 7% Source: Business Insights; http://www.yum.com/investors/addl_info.asp One of Three YUM! Divisions Divisional Restaurant Per Store ProfitTaco Bell – US Sales 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014  Taco Bell has highest profit margin per location, but its performance is falling due to changing market trends  It is the smallest division in YUM! by store count, and has the smallest growth domestically and internationally  Recently, diminishing margins in Chinese segments contributed to decreasing operating profit  KFC continues to be the cash cow of YUM!, both domestically and internationally $- $200 $400 $600 $800 $1,000 $1,200 $1,400 $1,600 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Taco Bell KFC Pizza Hut Stores CAGR Margins Taco Bell 6,199 1% 18.90% KFC 14,197 1% 8.20% Pizza Hut 13,602 2% 8.20%
  • 9. 9Sources: Business Insights Essentials, Forbes, YUM! Brands Investor Relations, Wall Street Journal, IBIS World Overall trend line points downward for Taco Bell, but profit margins increase  Operating profit increased by 5 % in 2014  Sales increased by 7% - driven by 3% unit growth and 4% same-store sales growth  62 new restaurants; 81% of these new units were opened by franchisees  Restaurant margin improvement – leverage of G&A cost  Stabilizing factor in YUM! Brands  Increased capital expenditures as Taco Bell continues to expand  Positive outlook for 2015  Spin-off from YUM! discussed by analysts  At the end of 2014, of the 6,314 stores worldwide:  5921 in the United States  278 internationally Key Developments (in $ mm) 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 REVENUE $2,119 $2,109 $1,869 $1,863 $1,923 OPERATING PROFIT $384 $435 $456 $480 $520 PROFIT MARGIN 15.3% 18.2% 19.5% 18.9% 21.4% $0 $500 $1,000 $1,500 $2,000 $2,500 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 REVENUES OPERATING EXPENSES Taco Bell Five Year Summary ($m)
  • 10. 10Source: Huffington Post, Mobile Commerce Daily, National Restaurant News, Wall Street Journal Current efforts for brand modernization include tech and menu initiatives While serious concerns still exist about the quality of Taco Bell, the restaurant has taken significant steps to evolve its brand. Integration of mobile and online ordering, a move to healthier and more humane egg supplies, and increased transparency about beef recipes have begun the process of brand transformation  In November 2015, Taco Bell announced a switch to cage free eggs by the end of 2016  Taco Bell now leads the race for cage free eggs  Burger King end of 2017  McDonald’s within the next decade  Starbucks and Panera Bread by 2020 Cage Free EggsMobile and Online Ordering  In late 2014, released mobile app for online ordering  Upon release, customers using the app spent $10+ per visit – 20% more than they spent in store  With 3.7 million app downloads, users now spend 30% more than they do in store on average  In late 2015, Taco Bell launched its new website: Ta.co  Estimated 5mm unique visits per month  Integration of a loyalty program and DoorDash delivery  Enhanced customization and menu accessibility  70% of Taco Bell customers customize their order  Cost in increased ordering time, personalized suggestions; $0.30+ charged per each add on Brand Modernization Integration of Technology Use of Higher Quality Ingredients Ingredient Transparency Improved Brand Perception  In 2011, a lawsuit against Taco Bell brought the restaurant’s beef under scrutiny  In response, Taco Bell released information on the content of its beef  88% beef; 12% seasoning, spices, water, and other ingredients (Called “Signature Recipe”)  In 2014, Taco Bell launched a new beef transparency module detailing the contents of Taco Bell’s beef Beef Transparency
  • 11. 11Sources: QSR Web, Mobile Commerce Daily Breakfast presents an attractive current investment opportunity for Taco Bell Breakfast Menu Release • Breakfast launched on March 27, 2014 • Expansion of customer engagement and brand loyalty • Expanding beyond signature Fourth Meal • Accessing the McDonald’s-dominated QSR breakfast market Taco Bell Same-Store Sales Growth The successful rollout of Taco Bell breakfast menu indicates strong brand loyalty, healthy profit margins, and potential for future expansion. Given this success, breakfast represents an especially promising current opportunity for the company • The successful launch of the Taco-Bell breakfast menu contributed to same-store sales growth • Strong margins central to initiative profitability • Notably, gains in same-store sales have declined since the post-rollout spike Quick Statistics • Approximate Margins on Breakfast 21% • Breakfast Share of Total Sales 6% Sunday, Monday and Tuesday breakfast sales exceed late-night Fourth Meal -2% 0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 10% Q1 2013 Q2 2013 Q3 2013 Q4 2013 Q1 2014 Q2 2014 Q3 2014 Q4 2014 Q1 2015 Q2 2015 Q3 2015 Breakfast rollout – March 2014 Outcomes
  • 12. 12 OBJECTIVE: TACO BELL GROWTH STRATEGY Fast Food Industry Performance & Outlook Taco Bell Overview and Position Fast Casual Industry Performance & Outlook RECOMMENDATION: FAST CASUAL MARKET ENTRY Feasibility Strategy Moving Forward Fast Food Investment Potential Fast Casual Investment Potential
  • 13. 13Taco Bell Franchise, LA Times, The Motley Fool, Yum! Brands Investor Relations, QSR Web, Mobile Commerce Daily Expanding breakfast as a best option displays some growth potential within an already crowded segment 5.5% Franchise Royalty Income CURRENT RELEVANT MARKET SIZE: $34.5B FF Breakfast Market 4.9M Taco Bell Breakfast Sales TACO BELL BREAKFAST EXPANSION ASSUMPTIONS: Capture 2% of FF Breakfast Market in next year $38M NET PROFIT OPPORTUNITY IN THE NEXT YEAR FINANCIAL DATA • $8.2B in U.S. system wide sales for Taco Bell in 2014 • Breakfast items comprise 6% of Taco Bell sales • ~$490M in annual breakfast sales • $34.5B FF breakfast market • ~1.4% current FF breakfast market share • 5.5% franchise royalty fee • 21% margins on breakfast items FRANCHISING Although 14.5% of Taco Bell stores are company owned, the model assumes all stores are owned by franchisees. Franchisees pay a 5.5% royalty on all sales SENSITIVITY Within one year, we assume Taco Bell can expand its share of the FF breakfast market to X%. • 1.4% of market would yield $27M in annual profits • 2.0% of market would yield $38M in annual profits • 2.6% of market would yield $49M in annual profits KEY ASSUMPTIONS IN BREAKFAST EXPANSION MODEL 1.4% FF Breakfast Market Share PROFIT POTENTIAL OF TACO BELL BREAKFAST EXPANSION
  • 14. 14 OBJECTIVE: TACO BELL GROWTH STRATEGY Fast Food Industry Performance & Outlook Taco Bell Overview and Position Fast Casual Industry Performance & Outlook RECOMMENDATION: FAST CASUAL MARKET ENTRY Feasibility Strategy Moving Forward Fast Food Investment Potential Fast Casual Investment Potential
  • 15. 15 While comparatively small, fast casual industry is characterized by quick expansion QSR Magazine; National Restaurant Association 0 10 20 30 40 50 Sales($bn) Best Case Base Case Worst Case Fast Casual $30bn market size (revenue)  Delivering fresh food  Provide a high level of customization  Balance price and experience  Cultivate high level of customization • 550 % growth since 1999; 10x the growth of fast food YOY Change in Consumer Traffic Forecasted Industry Sales for Fast Casual -4% -2% 0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 10% 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 Quick Service Restaurants (Excluding Retail and Casual) Retail Fast Casual Consumer preference for Mexican FC:  Mexican 28 %  Hamburger 25 %  Other sandwich 23 %  Chicken 13 %  Pizza 10 %  Bakery and café 1 % Segmentation of fast casual by concept
  • 16. 16Statista; Washinton Post; Wall Street Journal; Scarborough Research Millennials are “perceptionists”—and fast casual is characterized by image and experience Perception & image are two of the most important factors in the establishment of fast casual chains. Existing fast casual customers are more likely to refer to fast food as “gross” or “unappealing.” Related to status Overall Trends: - Generational shift in consumer trends has opened up market for increased quality proposition - Fast casual chains are running out of white space; overseas expansion imminent? - Average check between $8-9; fast food chains average $5.3 - Concerns about impact of increasing meat prices and labor costs - Answer from the fast food industry has been increased customization; McDonalds build-your-own-burger •Fast food chains pride themselves on efficiency; fast casual is an experience •High level of customization; are you expected to customize? •Fresh and healthy options; i.e. can you see the process? •Locally sourced foods; related to perception Local Healthy ExperienceVaried Educated Urban lifestyle Health conscious Aged 20-40 Infrequent fast food consumers
  • 17. Shifting perceptions translate to restaurant segment growth differentials Source: IBIS World Overall, today’s restaurant industry is in a mature market stage. Total revenue remains about the same, while profit generation requires extra investment on non-price factors like new customer trends U.S RESTAURANT INDUSTRY Segment Avg. Operating Profit (’14) Market Share Fast food 11 - 13 % 31 % Fast casual 6 – 7 % 9 % Casual dining 4 – 5.5 % 24 % Family dining 6.5 – 8.1 % 21 % Casual Dining Segment •1.8 % Fast-food segment •3.5 % Fast-casual segment •9.5 % Increased costs of ingredients add industry pressure Consumer trend of preferring healthier options Purchase not rooted in calories, but brand perception Increased labor costs add pressure to franchises Distress levels are at record low 17 Segment GrowthKey Industry Comparisons
  • 18. 18Business Insights, Yum! Brands Investor Relations, QSR Magazine Among all quick service restaurants, fast casual presents an increasing threat to fast food industry health McDonald's 32% Subway 11% Panera Bread Starbucks 1% Burger King 8% Dunkin' Donuts 6% Chipotle 3% Wendy's 8% Taco Bell 7% Pizza Hut 5% KFC 4% Carl's Jr./ Hardee's Sonic Drive-In 3% Domno's Pizza 3% Chick-fil-A 5% QSR Magazine Rankings • QSR 50 Ranking#6 • Mexican Segment Rank#1 Taco Bell has a strong position within the Fast Food industry, specifically the Mexican segment. Chipotle, however, has made gains in the Mexican QSR space. Increase in healthy eating habits threatens the fast-food industry as a whole Quick Service Restaurant Market Breakdown: • Revenues have declined and remained relatively flat in the past four years. • With increasing margins, and strong sales growth, Taco Bell remains a major player in the QSR restaurant. • Taco Bell still dominates the Quick Service Restaurant Mexican Segment. • Chipotle (QSR 50 Ranking #15) is showing strong growth in the Mexican Segment with a #2 Ranking
  • 19. 19 OBJECTIVE: TACO BELL GROWTH STRATEGY Fast Food Industry Performance & Outlook Taco Bell Overview and Position Fast Casual Industry Performance & Outlook RECOMMENDATION: FAST CASUAL MARKET ENTRY Feasibility Strategy Moving Forward Fast Food Investment Potential Fast Casual Investment Potential
  • 20. 20 FC option shows significant profit potential, but financial and customer experience cost factors are key Achieve ~7% margin based on industry standard CURRENT RELEVANT MARKET SIZE: $30B in total FC sales 23% Mexican Concept TACO BELL FC ENTRY SCENARIO ASSUMPTIONS: Capture ~10% of FC Mexican Concept $48.3M NET PROFIT OPPORTUNITY RE-BRANDING & ADVERTISEMENT Studies on millennial generation’s spending habits and restaurant preferences indicate that a thorough process of changing brand perception is necessary in order to penetrate the market. Such rebranding could require additional expenditure on advertisement and promotion. NEW STORE vs. REMODELING U.S. Taco Co was a $500,000 investment during its year in business. Wendy’s previously launched incentive- program for existing franchise owners to remodel their stores as estimates indicated a potential increase of 5- 10 % in restaurant sales. CANNIBALIZATION Although fast-casual restaurant customers spend about 40 % more per visit, the adjusted amount of money spent is difficult to assess as there are no companies that have recorded the full effect of a switch. There is a danger of cannibalization. ADDITIONAL COST FACTORS IN FAST CASUAL SWITCH $6.9B Potential Market Share ESTIMATED PROFIT POTENTIAL OF TACO BELL FAST CASUAL Sources: QSR Web, Mobile Commerce Daily, Business Insights
  • 21. 21 OBJECTIVE: TACO BELL GROWTH STRATEGY Fast Food Industry Performance & Outlook Taco Bell Overview and Position Fast Casual Industry Performance & Outlook RECOMMENDATION: FAST CASUAL MARKET ENTRY Feasibility Strategy Moving Forward Fast Food Investment Potential Fast Casual Investment Potential
  • 22. 22Source: Mintel Market Penetration 1 Product Penetration 2 Market Development 3 Diversification 4 New ProductSame Product New Customers Same Customers Why an acquisition • Growth of 26.7% is predicted from 2013- 18, reaching $38 billion in 2018 • US social trend toward eating healthy • Taco Bell’s current image will detract from its effectiveness in the fast casual market • Entering fast casual under a different name gives substantial risk mitigation; core brand will not suffer negative externalities Alternative ways of entering fast casual 1. Develop FC internally and launch a new brand 2. Develop FC internally and introduce under current brand 3. Expand in untapped markets to target new customer segments 4. Inorganic entry, through acquisition Counterarguments to address • Competitors and case studies include failures • Barrier perceptions surrounding Taco Bell are too strong and negative • Strong competitors in Mexican fast casual • Lower profit margins; increasing costs • Fast food market is still much larger than fast casual • Execution/startup risk (will Taco Bell deliver a good product?) CONCLUSION: Taco Bell should enter fast casual market through an acquisition Recommendation: Taco Bell should enter the fast casual industry through acquisition
  • 23. 23 OBJECTIVE: TACO BELL GROWTH STRATEGY Fast Food Industry Performance & Outlook Taco Bell Overview and Position Fast Casual Industry Performance & Outlook RECOMMENDATION: FAST CASUAL MARKET ENTRY Feasibility Strategy Moving Forward Fast Food Investment Potential Fast Casual Investment Potential
  • 24. 24 Negative brand perceptions are barrier to be addressed in fast casual entry CHEAP VALUE MEAL AMERICANIZED TASTE FAST & CONVENIENT UNHEALTHY & LOW QUALITY Positive Reaction Negative Reaction Sources: Armitage, Brand Audit for Taco Bell NO ATHENTICITY • Traditional “Quick Service Restaurant” (QSR) • Offers “Fourth meal,” enables order after midnight • Drive thru, Taco Bell mobile application • Majority of sales based on take-out • Relatively low investment into store interior • Minimum or no in-store dining service and workforce CHEAP & BAD DINE-IN • Menu variety includes tacos, burritos, etc. • “Americanized,” or “Tex-Mex-Style” food • American adoption of popular Mexican foods like the Cantina Bowl • Bad choice for authentic Mexican food • Relatively small amount of vegetables • Ingredients substituted according to price and Taco Bell’s own recipe • Nationwide restaurant distribution • Relatively low prices • Promotional value meal deals like Big Box • Cheap price and quick service imply low quality food, fail to attract older customers • Growing concerns about healthy eating damage Taco Bell’s brand image NBC News
  • 25. 25Business Insider Comparable cases present compelling argument for brand departure when entering the fast casual market Super Chix Company Overview • An exploratory venture by YUM! Brands; started in 2014 • Company Slogan: “The Last True Chicken Sandwich” Menu Outcome • Scored 4 out of 5 stars on Yelp. • Opened 3 locations within 1 year • Recognized as top competitor with Chick Fil-A • Sold company to Christophe P., Nick O. & Jeff. S. • Straightforward food options: nuggets, salads, sandwiches • Emphasis on high quality ingredients prepared with integrity • “We only use the highest quality potatoes” • In accordance with growing trend against genetically modified ingredients. • Madagascar Bourbon Vanilla Beans KFC 11 Company Overview Menu • KFC’s Fast Casual Counterpart, opened August 2013 in Louisville, Kentucky • Encourages slow paced dining that is convenient. • Global Cuisine- flavors like Sweet Orange Ginger, Caribbean Tango and Southwestern Baja • Salad, Flatbreads, “Crispy Bites”, Rice Bowls • Emphasis on fresh, healthy, and sophisticated options • Mashed potatoes: “Now they're "smashed" and infused with garlic” • Items not available: fried chicken bucket and KFC signature biscuits • Entrée Prices: $4.99-$6.99 Outcome • Closed after a year • Scored 3 out of 5 stars on Yelp
  • 26. 26 OBJECTIVE: TACO BELL GROWTH STRATEGY Fast Food Industry Performance & Outlook Taco Bell Overview and Position Fast Casual Industry Performance & Outlook RECOMMENDATION: FAST CASUAL MARKET ENTRY Feasibility Strategy Moving Forward Fast Food Investment Potential Fast Casual Investment Potential
  • 27. Important factors to consider in acquisition • Scalability – e.g., from regional to national • Expertise in fast casual • Cultural alignment • Product quality • Customer loyalty • Fair multiple • Cost, distribution, or sourcing synergies Attractive Price Brand Strength Expansion Potential Effective Management 27
  • 29. Conclusion: Taco Bell should look to enter the fast casual market through acquisition Given these findings, and taking into account the company’s current investment opportunities and management objectives within fast food, we believe a fast casual market entry presents high upside potential and makes long-term strategic sense for Taco Bell Ultimately Strategic Rationale Feasibility and Execution  Overall market saturation of Fast Food industry  Continuing market growth of Fast Casual industry  Growth story and consumer trends drive compelling profit potential  Strategic alignment demonstrated in past attempts to introduce fast casual concepts  Inorganic entry represents a feasible option in response to barrier perceptions concern and execution risk
  • 31. 31Sources: Taco Bell, Business Insider, Nation’s Restaurant News A Case Study: Taco Bell Cantina demonstrates management’s interest in a fast casual entry  Taco Bell Cantina opened in Chicago’s Wicker Park neighborhood on Tuesday September 22, 2015  San Francisco location will open later this month  Taco Bell Cantina serves alcoholic beverages  Alcoholic beverages retain Taco Bell branding  Twisted Freezes (Similar to Baja Blast)  Twisted Freezes range from $6.19 to $7.19 depending on the choice of alcohol  Large increase in price point Taco Bell is currently experimenting with a fast casual restaurant concept that places itself in direct competition with the likes of Chipotle and Qdoba. This initiative reflects its plans to expand, as well as the stresses put on the brand by new initiatives such as the Taco Bell Cantina restaurant. The success of Taco Bell Cantina depends on its ability to adapt its brand. Urbanization Localization Green Transparency Digitization 5 Consumer TrendsNew Taco Bell Fast Casual Restaurant ▪ Taco Bell’s new Cantina restaurant integrates the preceding five consumer trends into the existing brand ▪ Drive thru window replaced by walkup window ▪ New Taco Bell units have lower costs ▪ Reduced square footage ▪ Recycled materials ▪ Open kitchen design increases transparency ▪ Fresher ingredients are used in food ▪ Base menu stays same with Taco Bell classics
  • 32. 32Mobile Commerce Daily, National Restaurant News In Absence of Fast Casual: Alternative investment options for Taco Bell Taco Bell has already made efforts at menu expansion and improvement, digitization, delivery and customization, and brand redevelopment. These initiatives have improved Taco Bell’s performance. However, costs of these initiatives, potential for limited impact, and possible loss of customers lead us to recommend an entry into Fast Casual through acquisition. Menu Expansion and Upscaling Delivery and Customization Digitization Marketing and Brand Redevelopment Entry into Fast Casual Menu Expansion and Upgrade  Expansion of successful offerings  Further capitalization on breakfast menu success  Continued development and release of new products  Potentially high costs of development  Diminishing impact of continued menu development  Marketing expenditures on new product lines Digitization  Release of mobile app and website (Ta.co)  3.7 million app downloads and 5 million monthly visitors to website  Mobile and web customers spend more than average in-store customer  Digitization already in process Delivery and Customization  Integration of DoorDash delivery with website and app  Online ordering enhances customization options  70% of Taco Bell customers customize their order  Higher labor and ingredient costs associated with less uniform orders  Limited impact on the business with small investment Marketing and Brand Redevelopment  Taco Bell is currently improving brand image with quality ingredient initiatives  Upscale brand showcased in Taco Bell Cantina  Deeply ingrained negative perceptions and stream of undesirable publicity surrounding Taco Bell  Risk of alienating loyal customers and losing sales in lower quality fast-food segment