Caroline Manning CV

1. Curriculum Vitae
Caroline Manning (PhD, MSc, BA hons)
CM Water Economics Ltd (Director)
Caroline is an applied economist specialising in water and the environment. She has an extensive track
record in the water industry spanning almost thirty years and a broad range of clients both in the UK and
abroad. Caroline offers a unique blend of technical knowledge, extensive project delivery experience, and
wide-ranging research skills in the fields of applied microeconomics, econometrics, impact valuation and
cost benefit assessment. Caroline’s approach is underpinned by excellent communication skills and an
analytical rigour gained from working in a university setting early in her career.
Working both independently and collaboratively, Caroline provides consultancy services to UK water and
sewage companies, UK government and industry regulators, industry research bodies and third sector
organisations. She has developed and informed UK industry and regulatory guidance across a range of
technical areas over the past three decades, and for several years has developed and supported the
implementation of a loss control strategy for a water company in Melbourne, Australia.
Caroline’s focus has been in the fields of (i) leakage economics and losses control and (ii) cost benefit
appraisal, including non-market valuation and benefits assessment. Key areas of expertise include:
 Water balance calculation, leakage reporting, and strategic approaches to losses control;
 Economic optimisation of both distribution leakage and upstream losses (SELL) within the broader
framework of water resources planning;
 Methodologies for assessing technical components of SELL (such as supply pipe leakage,
background leakage, natural rate of rise in leakage) and empirical leakage-cost relationships for a
diverse range of leakage management policies (such as smart metering, enhanced leakage
detection activities, customer-side leakage reduction, pressure management, and asset renewal);
 Comparative leakage efficiency analyses at individual-, team-, policy-, DMA- and operational area-
level, including development of cost-based leakage performance indicators and frontier modelling
(stochastic econometric modelling and data envelopment analysis);
 Non-household night use assessment: survey design, econometric modelling and robust solution
methods for eliminating bias and reducing uncertainty;
 Customer meter under-registration assessment: survey design, error curve reconstruction,
generation of consumption profiles, and development of economically optimal meter
replacement strategies;
 Economic valuation of environmental and social costs of leakage and leakage management
activities;
 Assessment of non-market benefits for service improvements relating to drinking and bathing
water quality, sewage disposal and environmental protection, and application of benefits
assessments for business planning, including economic support for stated preference surveys
(willingness to pay);
 Cost benefit analysis and economic appraisal across a variety of policy areas, including strategies
for the reduction of lead in water supplies, adoption of private sewers, regional fisheries
development, farm management practices for the control of diffuse pollution; farm waste
management alternatives, land-use impacts of river restoration and wetland regeneration.

2. Leakage economics and losses control
 For City West Water (Australia): four-year collaboration with AAMS and Detection Services Ltd to
develop and implement a comprehensive roadmap for reducing non-revenue water and real loss
control. The work entailed generation of the annual water balance calculation and scoping, peer
review, and delivery or supporting analysis for a large number of component-level projects such as
bulk meter verification, billed consumption audits, customer meter under-registration, reservoir
losses, DMA establishment and maintenance, and MNF leakage assessment.
 For Dwr Cymru Welsh Water:
 Assessment of sustainable economic leakage levels (SELL) for water resource and business plans at
PR09, PR14 and PR19 (ongoing). Collaboration with RPS Water to develop the SALT++ modeling
approach for leakage optimisation, calculation of policy minimum, background leakage and natural
rates of rise, and generation of leakage-cost relationships - including social and environmental costs
- for leakage reduction policies such as standard and enhanced active leakage control, asset
renewal, pressure management, smart metering, and customer side leakage reduction.
 Methodology for optimising zone-level trunk mains leakage reduction, comprising an innovative
probabilistic approach for the assessment of costs and leakage savings arising from TM repair and
renewal across different sections of the network. Caroline’s work has allowed DCWW to generate
zone-specific TM leakage reduction targets at PR14 and PR19.
 Guidance on compliance with government and regulatory guidelines for leakage reporting, SELL
assessment and leakage target-setting, including technical support on leakage strategy, regulatory
audit and implementation of recent guidelines on leakage reporting consistency (ongoing).
 Leakage performance and efficiency: development of simple and more complex efficiency 'frontier'
models of leakage performance using deterministic and stochastic econometric analysis and data
envelopment analysis (DEA). Since 2005 Caroline has led the industry in developing comparative
efficiency models at the inspector-, team-, DMA- and operational area-level. The work has allowed
refinements in the way DCWW measures detection performance and work is in progress to develop
an inspector-level work-planning app for optimizing DMA-level leakage interventions. In 2015
Caroline delivered to the UKWIR annual leakage conference a collaborative paper on measuring,
predicting, and improving efficiency in leakage detection activity. Caroline presented her initial
findings to Ofwat in 2011.
 Non-household night use assessment (ongoing): since 2000 Caroline has designed six consecutive
non-household logging surveys. Applying progressive econometric modelling techniques to analyse
the results, she has advanced on current good practice methods for assessing non-household night
use allowances. Amongst other things, she has led the industry in identifying methods for
eliminating the re-transformation bias associated with the industry’s current assessment
methodology, and most recently has commenced a study to explore the use of two-part models to
deal more appropriately with inactive night use. Related work includes optimised stratification of
the non-household meter population, development of weekly and monthly seasonal night use
adjustment factors, attaining leakage reporting consistency, and progressing DCWW towards ‘real-
time’ reporting of non-household night use.
 Customer supply pipe leakage assessment and economic modelling (ongoing): development of a
components-based methodology, used by DCWW since 2012 to produce annual assessments for
SPL. Caroline has undertaken detailed cost-benefit assessments for alternative SPL reduction
policies, and has used the model to predict the potential leakage savings associated with each of
these.

3.  For Northumbrian Water: non-household night use assessment (ongoing): review and refinement of UKWIR
methodology for assessing NHNU, including large-scale survey design, and development of alternative
functional specifications aimed at eliminating retransformation bias and dealing appropriately with inactive
night use. Modelling approaches include 2-stage GLM and double hurdle and zero-inflated models
 For Yorkshire Water: guidance on non-household night use assessment, including technical support on
sample design and stratification, model solution methods, outlier removal and bias elimination, and guidance
on compliance with recent regulatory reporting guidelines and industry best practice
 For various UK water companies: design of non-household night use surveys and analysed the results to
produce night use allowance assessments. She has also provided guidance on continuous logging policy and
ongoing survey maintenance
 For Ofwat, Defra and the Environment Agency: in collaboration with RPS Water, co-author of ‘Provision of
best practice guidance on the inclusion of social and environmental externalities in the ELL calculation’.
Comprised development of a comprehensive methodology for the appropriate assessment and inclusion of
environmental, social and carbon-related impacts of leakage and leakage management practices in the
determination of socially efficient (sustainable) levels of leakage. The Guidance has been widely used by the
UK water industry for PR09 and PR14
 For UKWIR: Caroline has collaborated with other consultants to develop best practice guidance across a
number of leakage-related areas:
 ‘Efficiency of Active leakage control’ – with Servelec Technologies, technical advisor on the measurement of
water companies’ ALC performance and efficiency using frontier modelling (ongoing);
 ‘Natural Rate of rise in Leakage’ – with RPS Water, project lead on development of a best practice method
for assessing NRR, which since 2005 has been widely used across the UK water industry;
 ‘Factors affecting the Natural Rate of Rise in Leakage’ – with RPS Water, technical support on
determination of the physical factors affecting NRR, supervision of companies’ data processing and
quantification of a functional specification linking natural growth in leakage to key determinants;
 ‘A Survey of Practices for the Detection and Location of Leaks’ – with RPS Water, project team member
exploring the efficiency of alternative leakage detection technologies;
 ‘Estimating legitimate non-household night use allowances’ – with RPS Water, project lead on the design of
a methodology for estimating non-household night use, involved collection and statistical/econometric
analysis of companies’ data, optimal survey design, supervision of data processing, and preparation of the
final report. Since 1999 the methodology has been widely used across the UK water industry.
 For South West Water (pre-2000):
 Development of the now widely used modelling framework for SELL determination, including
econometrics-based methodologies for functional specification and estimation of marginal (unit) costs of
leak detection and repair, NRR, and background leakage levels.
 Cost-benefit appraisal of increased supply capacity (headroom): involved application of a financial benefit
function to derive incremental benefits (i.e. averted emergency supply-related expenditures) associated
with additional headroom and the estimation of the incremental costs associated with bringing forward
capital expenditures on new resources.
 Environmental valuation of water resource planning alternatives and demand management options,
including leakage. Included application of EA valuation guidelines to various water resource schemes, and
involved estimation of the relation between leakage levels, river flow levels and associated environmental
impacts translated into monetary terms. Also included guidance on alternative valuation methodologies for
business planning purposes.

4. Cost Benefit Appraisal, non-market valuation and benefits assessment
 For Defra: Lead economist with WRc project on the cost benefit appraisal of a range of options for
reducing lead in drinking water in England and Wales (ongoing)
 For Defra: Peer reviewer for WRc project to provide an evidence base to support the Government in
making a decision on whether to adopt section 42 of the FWMA 2010 (ongoing)
 For Dwr Cymru Welsh Water: Economic advisor, assessing the benefits of service improvements in
drinking water quality, sewage disposal and environmental protection for PR09 and PR14. Specialist
guidance across a wide range of methods for assessing benefits, including the elicitation of customers'
willingness-to-pay through the use of Stated Preference (choice experiment) techniques. Caroline
provided economic guidance on methodology and approach, assistance with the development of benefits
assessments, interface between the client and survey contractors, guidance on the application of
resulting valuations for strategic business planning, and support for regulatory audit
 For Scottish Water: guidance on the assessment of the ‘true value’ of water in Scotland, in collaboration
with RPS Water. Caroline liaised with SEPA and Scottish Water and provided guidance on appropriate and
up-to-date techniques and data sources for valuing the range of environmental externalities associated
with water abstraction
 For the Westcountry Rivers Trust: assessment of the socio-economic benefits and regional economic
impacts of the Westcountry Angling Passport Scheme, in collaboration with Alex Inman Consulting.
Involved assessment and financial valuation of the range of economic, social and environmental impacts
on Passport Scheme stakeholders and the regional economy, arising from funding provided by Country
Sports South West. The analysis involved application of the ‘social return on investment’ framework and
includes assessment of the Passport as an effective ‘Payments for Ecosystems Services’ (PES) Scheme
 For East Devon District Council: development of the economic case for the Axe Wetlands Project, in
collaboration with Alex Inman Consulting. Involved assessment of the range of potential economic and
non-market benefits associated with a number of development scenarios relating to the Axe Wetlands
 For the Westcountry Rivers' Trust: Taw/Torridge project (DEFRA / EU-funded) to encourage best farm
management practices for reducing diffuse pollution and enhancing tourism and the natural environment
in the Taw/Torridge catchment, in collaboration with BDB Associates. Caroline's contribution involved the
economic valuation of direct (farmer) and indirect (social and environmental) costs and benefits
 For the Environment Agency:
 Integrated basin management: assessment of the feasibility of an integrated basin management
approach to flood alleviation on the River Allen catchment at Sladesbridge, Cornwall, in collaboration
with Halcrow. Caroline provided specialised economic input in the form of a discussion paper outlining
an economic framework for integrated catchment management, related funding issues and a review of
related environmental and agricultural and costs and benefits
 Diffuse pollution: analysis of farm-level costs and benefits of best management practices designed to
limit the negative environmental and farm management impacts of run-off and diffuse pollution, in
collaboration with BDB Associates. Involved detailed assessments and financial evaluation of the on-
farm costs and benefits associated with diffuse pollution and farm management practices aimed at its
alleviation
 River restoration: feasibility of the River Brue restoration on the Somerset Levels and Moors, in
collaboration with Halcrow. Involved evaluation of agricultural and environmental impacts of
restoration and associated cost/benefit appraisal, assessments of the potential levels of farmer
compensation, and appraisal of the potential value of environmental benefits.

5.  For Biffaward: development of a framework for a sustainable agricultural waste management strategy,
funded by the Landfill Tax Scheme, in collaboration with Marcus Hodge. Involved assessing the options
for managing agricultural waste arisings to determine the best (most sustainable) options and
developing proposals for a waste strategy. Caroline’s role as a project team member involved
developing financial and environmental cost/benefit assessments for different arisings and associated
management options
 For South West Water:
 Cost-benefit appraisal of increased supply capacity (headroom): involved application of a financial
benefit function to derive incremental benefits (i.e. averted emergency supply-related
expenditures) associated with additional headroom and the estimation of the incremental costs
associated with bringing forward capital expenditures on new resources.
 Environmental valuation of water resource planning alternatives and demand management
options, including leakage. Included application of EA valuation guidelines to various water
resource schemes, and involved estimation of the relation between leakage levels, river flow levels
and associated environmental impacts translated into monetary terms. Also included guidance on
alternative valuation methodologies for business planning purposes.
Previous experience (pre-1995)
 For ‘The Valley Trust’ NGO, KwaZulu-Natal, South Africa: pilot study for economic appraisal of
community agricultural enterprises.
 External examination marker (University of London): overseas undergraduate students' papers in
microeconomics.
 Postgraduate MBA lecturing (University of Exeter): modules on economics of natural resources and the
environment in relation to business management, and economics of international trade in primary
commodities and associated economic development issues. Included theoretical economics, modern
theories of environmental economics, international trade theory, price determination, analysis of
national and international policies with respect to environmental issues, agricultural trade and
economic development, and the use of developing country and commodity case studies e.g. the
international wheat, oil and tin markets.
 Lectureship in Economics and Agricultural Economics (University of Exeter):
 PhD. research into the valuation of the environmental and agricultural trade-offs involved in rural
land use planning, and included analysis and application of multi-criteria optimisation techniques
such as goal programming and compromise programming.
 Econometric analysis of food demand and the impact of advertising (MSc)
 Second and final year BA courses in environmental economics, rural development, microeconomics,
agricultural economics and policy, industrial organisation of the food sector, economics of
international commodity markets.
CM Water Economics Limited
Business address: 2 Rose Cottages, Exminster, Exeter, Devon EX6 8BX
T: 01392 832847 M: 07866 466303 E: cv.manning1@btconnect.com
Incorporated in England No. 8000699
Registered Office: Lime Court, Pathfields Business Park, South Molton, Devon EX36 3LH