Presented by Christopher Martius, Martin Herold, Viola Heinrich and Camilo Ernesto Zamora Ospina at COP28 side event "Is the looking glass half full or half empty? Transparency for climate discussions and reporting", 4 December 2023, Dubai, United Arab Emirates

1. Is the looking glass half full or
half empty?
Transparency for climate discussions and
reporting
The data perspective: Challenges and
Opportunities for the Enhanced
Transparency Framework Implementation
Christopher Martius, Martin Herold, Viola Heinrich,
Camilo Ernesto Zamora Ospina
4 December 2023 - COP28 Side Event, Dubai

2. Is the looking glass
half full or half empty?
Transparency for climate
discussions and reporting
4 December 2023 - COP28 Side Event, Dubai

3. https://www.transparentmonitoring.org/elements.html
IPCC Synthesis report March 2023
All global modelled pathways that limit warming to 1.5°C (>50%)
with no or limited overshoot, and those that limit warming to 2°C
(>67%), involve rapid and deep and, in most cases, immediate
greenhouse gas emissions reductions in all sectors this decade.
https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/syr/
Every fraction of a degree matters.
https://eia-international.org
Universal participation is needed.
https://unfccc.int/Together4Transparency?gclid=Cj0KCQiA67Cr
BhC1ARIsACKAa8RQzx_usaUm7YCB8wYGOd4ReJ1oFysEoGpAD
1D44U0zQYzLiDTXPF8aAkLdEALw_wcB

4. https://unfccc.int/sites/default/files/resource/ETF%20Technical
%20Handbook%20First%20Edition%20June_2020.pdf

5. https://unfccc.int/sites/default/files/resource/ETF%20Technical
%20Handbook%20First%20Edition%20June_2020.pdf

6. https://www.transparentmonitoring.org/elements.html
Accuracy and
uncertainty
Consistency and
completeness
Comparability and
interoperability
Complementarity
and scale
Reproducibility
and adaptability
Access and
distribution
Participation and
equity
Responsibility and
accountability
Transparency and
clarity
8 elements pairs of
transparent monitoring

7. https://www.transparentmonitoring.org/elements.html
Accuracy and
uncertainty
Consistency and
completeness
Comparability and
interoperability
Complementarity
and scale
Reproducibility
and adaptability
Access and
distribution
Participation and
equity
Responsibility and
accountability
Transparency and
clarity
8 elements pairs of
transparent monitoring
5 UNFCCC principles for
reporting NGHGIs

9. Large differences on a global scale:
Globally averaged net LULUCF CO2 emissions
???
Differences due to
• 80% of the discrepancy due to
how each method defines the
forest sink as “managed”
• incomplete NGHGis
• simplified representation of
forest management in global
models
IPCC, WG3, Ch7
DGVM = Dynamic Global
Vegetation Models
viola.heinrich@gfz-potsdam.de
WRI Forest flux (period mean)

10. Mind the Gap – reconciling tropical forest carbon flux
estimates from Global Earth Observation and National
reporting requires transparency
Brazil’s Managed Land Proxy
~7% difference
~50% difference
Average forest-related flux (2001 to 2020)
• Removals difference:
• Removals in SF remaining SF not considered in NGHGI
• Different removal factors used
• Different extent of forest type Heinrich et al., 2023

11. Can we apply our approach elsewhere?
Indonesia and Malaysia analysis
Excluded
National GHG
Inventory
National GHG
Inventory
Splitting up flux to sub-
components, can see
considerable differences in
associated fluxes in Indonesia,
potential to understand these
differences further. Need for
further explanation in NGHGI on
how fluxes are calculated.
Heinrich et al., 2023

12. Evolving policy context
Compliance check:
Requiring the plot of land or farm where the
commodity has been produced to be
identified
use of satellite images and positioning –
widely available and free-to-use digital tools –
to check whether a product or commodity is
compliant or not
EU deforestation regulation (EUDR)
UK Environment Act
US Executive Order

13. • Data acquired over 50 countries
• Global datasets: 16 // National datasets: 11
• Land cover products from 2016 to 2020
• Up to 18 different crop types classes
• Photointerpretation of high spatial resolution
satellite images
• “Palm oil”, “soy” and “forest plantations” are the
most represented crop types classes in these
datasets, although occasionally duplicated
Crop type dataset overview
Mitigate+ focal countries

14. Crop-type dataset distribution per region - density of input features
• crop types cultivated at industrial scale (e.g. palm oil, soy) are
well represented
• crop type reference datasets for small-scale complex
agricultural systems (e.g. subsistence agriculture) are very
limited in developing and emerging countries

15. Food system emissions
- All emissions are per year
- Inside the boxes, percentages are shown
- China shown as half of real size
Global food
system
emissions:
16,138 Mt
CO2eq/year
= 31% of all
emissions

16. Total national GHG emissions, food system
emissions, and pre- and post-production emissions
national total emission = 100 per cent
country
total FS
emissions of
total national
em. (%)
total PP of total
food system
(%)
total PP of
total national
(%)
China 14 59 8,26
Colombia 62 13 8,06
Kenya 72 13 9,36
Viet Nam 27 24 6,48
China Colombia Kenya Vietnam
total GHG emissions
food system emissions
pre- and post-production emissions
- direct data collection
- supporting and improving NDCs
- increasing ambition globally

17. https://www.transparentmonitoring.org/elements.html
Accuracy and
uncertainty
Consistency and
completeness
Comparability and
interoperability
Complementarity
and scale
Reproducibility
and adaptability
Access and
distribution
Participation and
equity
Responsibility and
accountability
Transparency and
clarity
8 elements pairs of
transparent monitoring
5 UNFCCC principles for
reporting NGHGIs
Perceived deficits

18. Conclusions
• Urgent climate action is needed, and reducing every
fraction of a degree matters.
• It therefore makes sense to search for ‘low hanging fruit’:
where can emissions be reduced the fastest?
• Forests play an important role in this regard preserving
the biodiversity that underpins the global land and climate
system
• Forests are centrally important for livelihoods and nutrition
of 2.4 billion people globally
• To speed things up, transparency issues must be resolved:
better data coherence can increase trust and
accountability. Data access and participation must be
improved
• Research including Earth Observation to produce data and
evidence therefore continues to be important to underpin
sectoral approaches to reduce emissions

19. Cited references
Heinrich, V. et al. (2023). Mind the gap: Reconciling tropical forest carbon flux estimates from earth observation
and national reporting requires transparency. Carbon Balance and Management, 18(1), 22.
https://doi.org/10.1186/s13021-023-00240-2
IPCC (2023): AR6 Synthesis Report Climate Change 2023. https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/syr/
Land Gap Report (2023): Lamd Gap Report Briefing Note 2023 Update. 5 pp. https://landgap.org/2023/update
Martius, C. et al. (2023). Food systems emissions in Kenya and their reduction potential: A country profile.
CIFOR-ICRAF Occasional Paper 7. https://doi.org/10.17528/cifor-icraf/008997
Martius, C. et al. (2023). Food systems emissions in Colombia and their reduction potential: A country profile.
CIFOR-ICRAF Occasional Paper 4, 28 pp. https://doi.org/10.17528/cifor-icraf/008864
Song, Z. et al. (2023). Towards a low-emission agrifood sector in the People’s Republic of China: A country
profile. CIFOR-ICRAF Occasional Paper 5. 28pp. CIFOR-ICRAF. https://www.cifor-
icraf.org/knowledge/publication/8865/
Zamora Ospina, C.E., unpublished PhD in progress at University of Potsdam, Germany

20. cifor-icraf.org | globallandscapesforum.org | resilient-landscapes.org
The Center for International Forestry Research (CIFOR) and World Agroforestry (ICRAF) envision a more equitable world
where trees in all landscapes, from drylands to the humid tropics, enhance the environment and well-being for all.
CIFOR and ICRAF are CGIAR Research Centers.
Thank you