15 ron wells debt sale

© Copyright 2015 T3P LIMITED
“Essentially, all models are
wrong, but some are useful.”
George Edward Pelham Box
(1919.10.18–2013.03.28) was
a British mathematician and
Professor of Statistics at the
University of Wisconsin. He
was a pioneer in the areas of
quality control, time series
analysis, design of
experiments and Bayesian
inference.
2

There is a naïve belief that
mathematical models can
foretell future risks…
…but they ignore ‘outliers’,
include too few variables and
use simplified assumptions
3

RISK MANAGEMENT
IS ABOUT
MANAGING THE FUTURE
Assessing and managing the risk of:
• not being paid in the future for
goods delivered, or
• not being compensated for
transactions repudiated in the future.
4

THE FUTURE
DOES NOT EXIST
5

Only the Present Exists
One moment at a time
THE FUTURE
Past Decisions Constrained
Brave Decisions Shaped
Major Impact Events Jolted
Embraces a New Present
One Moment at a Time

CHANGE HAS CHANGED
8
LEADING THE REVOLUTION © 2000 GARY HAMEL
No longer is it additive.
No longer does it move in a
straight line.
In the twenty-first century,
change is discontinuous, abrupt, seditious.

Acknowledging Change
“The world is transforming around you. The truth
is, the thing(s) you did to get (where you are) will
no longer work to keep you there.”
This is something they call ‘The Big Shift’ which
is already affecting every aspect of society
MARK STEVENSON: AN OPTIMIST’S TOUR OF THE FUTURE
9

Mark Stevenson’s New Philosophy
• Embrace the exponential
• Adopt a questing disposition
• Measure my value by what I create,
not what I own
• Evolution isn’t over
• Institutions that don’t innovate will die
10

• Embrace the exponential
11

The Speed & Quantum of Change
“If you look at progress in genome sequencing for
example — itself an interplay of infotech,
nanotech and biotech — it’s outstripping
Moore’s Law* by a factor of four.
(Therefore) What I think is more important to pay
attention to is how all these disciplines are
blurring together sometimes creating
hyper-exponential growth.”
MARK STEVENSON: INTERVIEW BY R U SIRIUS IN JULY 2011
*The number of transistors in an integrated circuit doubles +/- every two years
12

The Speed & Quantum of Change
‘… interplay of infotech, nanotech
and biotech…’
‘… how all these disciplines are
blurring together sometimes creating
hyper-exponential growth.’
MARK STEVENSON: INTERVIEW BY R U SIRIUS IN JULY 2011
13

• Institutions that don’t
innovate will die
14

NADYA ZHEXEMBAYEVA IN HER TED TALK TITLED
TO HOLD ON, LET GO, IN APRIL 2015 - VIEW THE TALK AT:
https://youtu.be/f4kySpcdvFg
To Hold On, Let Go
Forget ‘built to last’. Build to reinvent
“The business you are in today (will) not be the business
you’ll be in three and a half years from now.”
15
“We must remake who we are,
what we offer, and how we
deliver our offerings to the world.
Take the essence of what you
are, and let go of everything
else.”
NADYA
ZHEXEMBAYEVA

THE DEMANDS OF CHANGE
“… (in) running the business, old
processes were focussed on.
We needed new processes that
were focussed on changing the
business.”
Vineet Nayar CEO of HCL Technologies.
GARY HAMEL: WHAT MATTERS NOW - HOW TO WIN
IN A WORLD OF RELENTLESS CHANGE, FEROCIOUS
COMPETITION AND UNSTOPPABLE INNOVATION 16

IGNORED EXTERNAL CHANGE
“In the face of rapid change and
globalisation, data driven
risk management methods
alone are no longer
adequate.”
RON WELLS: THE CHAMELEON IN THE ROOM
EMBRACE BUSINESS RISK – ENSURE SURVIVAL & GROWTH 17

UNKNOWN
UNKNOWNS
18

UNQUANTIFIABLE
UNCERTAINTY
Risk from unquantifiable uncertainty
cannot be modelled, therefore cannot
be covered by traditional risk
management practices or insurance.
THE CHAMELEON IN THE ROOM BY RON WELLS
19

UNQUANTIFIABLE
UNCERTAINTY
Risk from unquantifiable uncertainty
cannot be modelled, therefore cannot
be covered by revenues generated.
MANAGING EXTREME FINANCIAL RISK BY KARAMJEET PAUL
20

‘If it seems too good to be true, then it probably is’ used
to be the old mantra.
Now, something too good to be true is often
mistakenly assumed to be the result of a
super-intelligent, complex quant analyses.
Despite all the complexities, shouldn’t sound human
judgement have said something about AIGFP raking in
so much money that they didn’t know what to do with it?
MANAGING EXTREME FINANCIAL RISK BY KARAMJEET PAUL
21

It takes Courage to take
a Risk – Not Numbers
LIFE'S A PITCH BY STEPHEN BAYLEY & ROGER MAVITY
22

If you can’t hide behind
numbers, how can you find
the courage to make a
decision?
23

How do you defend your
decisions?
24

Anticipate
Alternative Futures
25

THE FUTURE
26
Past Decisions shaped the Foundation
Brave Decisions taken by 7 billion people
interacting with Nature
and Major Impact Events shape
The Future

MEANS, MOTIVE AND
OPPORTUNITY TO PAY = M2O
The means to pay when the invoice is due
The motivation to pay when the invoice is due
The opportunity to pay when the invoice is due

OPPORTUNITY, MOTIVE
& MEANS TO PERFORM
Opportunity: Sufficiently hedged to tolerate any
Potential Future Exposure
Motive: Motivated to meet its commitments
Means: The financial means to pay ‘performance
failure compensation’

“The future is already here — it's just
not very evenly distributed.”
William Gibson - 1993
29

“The future is already here — it's just
not very evenly distributed.”
“The future is not Google-able.”
30

“Scenarios are learning stories ...
the process of working through them
(and) experiencing them, is as
important as the conclusions.”
Quotation from Russia 2010 and what it means for the World
by Daniel Yergin & Thane Gustafson © 1993, 1995 Cambridge Energy Research Associates.
31
MORE INFORMATION IS AVAILABLE ON Barrettwells.co.uk see webpage:
http://www.barrettwells.co.uk/credit_2010.html#SCENARIO%20PLANNING

“You can’t outrun the Future
if you don’t see it coming.”
GARY HAMEL: WHAT MATTERS NOW - HOW
TO WIN IN A WORLD OF RELENTLESS
CHANGE, FEROCIOUS COMPETITION AND
UNSTOPPABLE INNOVATION
32

THE CHAMELEON IN THE ROOM
PUBLISHED ON JULY 8 2015
This book presents
alternative ways to cope with
the diabolical array of risks
that threaten non-financial
businesses; including some
seldom written about to date;
e.g. Black Swan Events.
Look inside using this link:
http://www.book2look.de/book/X
DU8RVItrX
33
In the face of rapid change and globalisation, data driven
risk management methods alone are no longer adequate.

Disclaimer:
The information provided in this document and the associated live presentation has been derived from sources
believed to be accurate and reliable. Such information is provided "as is" without warranty of any kind and T3P
LIMITED and/or its Associate(s) make no representation or warranty, express or implied, as to the accuracy,
timeliness, completeness, merchantability or fitness for any particular purpose of the information. Under no
circumstances do T3P LIMITED and/or its Associate(s) have any liability to any person or entity for (a) any loss or
damage in whole or in part caused by, resulting from, or relating to, any error or other circumstance or contingency
within or outside the control of T3P LIMITED and/or its Associate(s) in connection with the procurement, collection,
compilation, analysis, interpretation, editing, transcription, transmission, communication, publication or delivery of any
such information, or (b) any direct, indirect, special, consequential, compensatory, or incidental damages whatsoever
(including without limitation, lost profits).
T3P LIMITED
Company Number: 04344371
Registered in England & Wales
1st Floor MIDAS House
62 Goldsworth Road
Woking Surrey GU21 6LQ
United Kingdom
Email: info@t3plimited.com
URL: www.t3plimited.com
34

15 ron wells debt sale

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