A comparison of recent employment and business trends in Illinois and surrounding state.. Presented by Dr. Norman Walzer to the "Creating a Common Voice Downstate Summit" in Decatur, Illinois on September 20, 2012.

1. Illinois and Contiguous States
Employment and Business Climate
Presented by
Norman Walzer
Senior Research Scholar
to
2nd Creating a Common Voice Downstate Summit
Decatur, IL
September 20, 2012

2. Industry Employment Trends
2000‐2010
Surrounding States: Indiana, Iowa,
Kentucky, Missouri, and Wisconsin
Illinois
Industry
Non‐metro
Total Employment
Numeric Change
Percent Change
Metro
State
Non‐metro
Metro*
Region
‐60,251
‐6.7
‐52,080
‐0.8
‐112,331
‐1.5
‐103,180
‐2.5
58,700
0.6
‐44,480
‐0.3
‐15,793
‐25.1
‐1.4
‐8,487
‐22.5
‐0.1
‐24,280
‐24.1
‐0.3
‐67,096
‐19.7
‐1.5
‐35,475
‐19.1
‐0.3
‐102,571
‐19.5
‐0.7
‐44,377
‐35.3
‐4.3
‐266,620
‐35.4
‐4.1
‐310,997
‐35.4
‐4.1
‐223,570
‐30.0
‐5.1
‐448,540
‐30.4
‐4.3
‐673,622
‐30.3
‐4.5
‐8,570
‐6.4
0.1
‐102,658
‐10.6
‐1.5
‐111,228
‐10.1
‐1.3
‐34,297
‐5.6
‐0.5
‐134,800
‐8.1
‐1.3
‐169,097
‐7.4
‐1.1
7,739
2.9
3.1
322,515
12.7
5.4
330,254
11.8
5.2
166,093
14.4
4.8
580,342
15.2
5.2
746,435
15.0
5.2
Farming
Numeric Change
Percent Change
Change in Share of Total Employment
Manufacturing
Numeric Change
Percent Change
Change in Share of Total Employment
Wholesale and Retail Trade
Numeric Change
Percent Change
Change in Share of Total Employment
Services
Numeric Change
Percent Change
Change in Share of Total Employment
Data Source: Woods & Poole Economics, Inc., 2012.
2

3. Population Change by Age Group
2000‐2010
Surrounding States: Indiana, Iowa,
Kentucky, Missouri, and Wisconsin
Illinois
Population
Nonmetro
Metro*
State
Nonmetro
Metro*
Region
Under 17 years of age
‐11.5%
‐2.5%
‐3.6%
‐4.8%
2.8%
0.4%
18 to 44 years of age
‐12.5%
‐1.8%
‐3.2%
‐6.7%
1.1%
‐1.2%
45 to 64 years of age
11.6%
23.0%
21.2%
20.8%
27.4%
25.2%
65 to 84 years of age
‐0.9%
5.9%
4.7%
5.4%
8.6%
7.4%
85 years of age and older
4.9%
24.9%
20.4%
7.9%
22.2%
16.7%
Total Population
‐4.5%
4.4%
3.2%
2.1%
8.4%
6.4%
Data Source: U.S. Census Bureau; EASI Analytics, Inc., 2011.
3

4. Projected Population Trends
Downstate Non‐Metropolitan Counties Illinois (2010 to 2020)
40%
30.3%
31.0%
30%
20.1%
19.9%
Percent Change 2010 - 2020
20%
Generation Z
10.1%
10%
Baby Bust
7.4%
5.6%
3.9%
2.6%
1.7%
0%
-0.9%
-10%
-1.8%
-4.7%
Generation
Alpha
Baby Boomers
-7.7%
Silent
Generation
Millennials
-20%
-20.5%
-6.0%
-18.8%
-21.1%
-30%
Population Age Cohort
Data Source: Woods & Poole Economics, Inc., 2012.
4

5. Industry Earnings per Employee
2000‐2010
Surrounding States: Indiana, Iowa,
Kentucky, Missouri, and Wisconsin
Illinois
Industry
Nonmetro
Metro*
State
Nonmetro
Metro*
Region
2000
2010
$19,465
$46,917
141.0
$20,538
$55,916
172.3
$19,868
$50,368
153.5
$13,657
$26,732
95.7
$13,592
$21,787
60.3
$13,634
$24,983
83.2
2000
2010
$39,470
$41,776
5.8
$42,877
$45,016
5.0
$43,108
$46,078
6.9
$43,517
$46,149
6.0
$58,607
$64,606
10.2
$53,506
$58,387
9.1
$22,574
$26,393
16.9
$24,536
$25,840
5.3
$24,690
$27,924
13.1
$24,443
$25,380
3.8
$33,610
$34,882
3.8
$31,145
$32,277
3.6
$20,807
$22,587
8.6
$23,195
$24,312
4.8
$22,771
$24,720
8.6
$23,297
$24,966
7.2
$34,029
$36,362
6.9
$31,543
$33,736
7.0
Farming
Percent Change
Manufacturing
Percent Change
Wholesale and Retail Trade
2000
2010
Percent Change
Services
2000
2010
Percent Change
Data Source: Woods & Poole Economics, Inc., 2012.
5

6. Shift‐Share Employment Comparisons
• National Share
– Changes resulting from national economic trends.
• Industry Mix
– Changes because of concentrations of fast or slow growing industries
nationally.
• Competitive Share
– Remaining changes that result mainly from local conditions.
– Does the industry grow faster in the region or in the nation?
6

7. Manufacturing Employment Trends
2000‐2011
State
Total
Change
Percent
Change
National
Share
Illinois
Indiana
‐274,748
‐31%
42,717
‐52,846
‐8,507
‐0.97%
‐229,863
‐34%
32,719
‐40,477
‐25,940
‐3.85%
‐41,810
‐16%
12,415
‐15,359
35,569
13.91%
Kentucky
‐111,373
‐35%
15,284
‐18,908
‐16,112
‐5.12%
Missouri
‐111,858
‐30%
18,110
‐22,403
1,012
0.27%
Wisconsin
‐137,324
‐23%
29,335
‐36,291
45,513
7.53%
Iowa
Industry
Mix
Competitive
Competitive
Share
Share (Percent)
7

8. Manufacturing Competitive Share
2000‐2011
Percent change in
manufacturing employment
-52.12% - 10.87%
-10.86 - 3.18
3.19 - 20.5
20.51- 111.54
Data Source: Woods & Poole Economics Inc., 2012.
8

9. Summary of State Rankings*
Lowest Number is Highest Rank
CNBC
Forbes
Tax Foundation
Info Tech &
Innov Fndn
Beacon Hill Institute
Kauffman
Foundation
Chief Executive
Magazine
Iowa
12
10
41
38
8
37
22
Illinois
26
41
28
15
44
46
48
Indiana
14
34
11
35
43
47
5
Kentucky
36
25
22
44
46
11
25
Michigan
33
47
18
17
25
41
46
Minnesota
11
15
45
13
4
38
36
Missouri
27
31
15
33
33
6
24
Ohio
25
38
39
25
45
31
35
Wisconsin
17
40
43
29
22
43
20
State
*Compiled by the Center for Governmental Studies.
9

10. Summary of Ranks
Average
ranking
(1‐50)
Highest
Rank
Iowa
24
8
41
Illinois
35
15
48
Indiana
27
5
47
Kentucky
30
11
46
Michigan
32
17
47
Minnesota
23
4
45
Missouri
24
6
33
Ohio
34
25
45
Wisconsin
31
17
43
State
Lowest
Rank
• Ranks vary wildly.
• “Thirty‐four of the 50 states
can brag that they are in the
top 10 …; they just have to
pick which of the five
indices they want to point
to.” (Fisher, 2005, 71).
• Differences in states’
average rankings not
statistically significant.
10

11. Questions to Pose
• For What Industries is Illinois Most Suited?
– Downstate Rural, Downstate Metro, and Metro
• What Assets Can It Offer?
– Market Access, Transportation, Natural Resources, Capital
– Higher Education, Broadband
• Availability of Adequate Skilled Work Force?
• Business Operating Environment and Tools
– Taxes, Services, Incentives
• How to Best Market Illinois and the Midwest?
– Positive, Unified Message
– Collaboration Among Partners

12. For Further Information
Norman Walzer
Senior Research Scholar
Center for Governmental Studies
Northern Illinois University
148 North Third Street
DeKalb, IL 60115
815‐753‐0933
nwalzer@niu.edu