B-Focus — 5 ประเด็นเด่นเศรษฐกิจประจำสัปดาห์ 9 สิงหาคม 2564
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B-Focus — 5 ประเด็นเด่นเศรษฐกิจประจำสัปดาห์ 9 สิงหาคม 2564
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B-Focus — 5 ประเด็นเด่นเศรษฐกิจประจำสัปดาห์ 9 สิงหาคม 2564
- 1. Economic Outlook Burin Adulwattana Chief Economist 1
- 2. ประเด็นที่ 5 : COVID-19 Update
- 3. 30% of the world population has received at least one dose of a COVID-19 vaccine, and 15.5% is fully vaccinated. 74.51% 69.29% 67.13% 58.36% 45.94% 36.44% 21.75%
- 4. France Protests against COVID-19 health pass held for 4th consecutive week • Marches took place in 150 cities with the Interior Ministry estimated in the late afternoon that about 237,000 people had taken part in protests. • More than 79% of French adults have received at least one dose of the vaccine and 68% are fully inoculated. • The health pass (Pass Sanitaire)— attesting that the holder has either been • vaccinated, • tested negative over the previous 48 hours or • has recovered from the disease during the previous six months • Require when going to • the cinema or other cultural places, • dining out, • drinking in a bar, • visiting a hospital (not for emergencies), • traveling on long distance trains, • From September, it will be legally required by employers
- 6. Source: CDC
- 8. ประเด็นที่ 4 :Thai Economy
- 9. Source:OurWorld in Data, Macrobond
- 10. คนไทยมีเงินเก็บในบัญชีเท่าไหร่ Source: BOT 95,258,138 (87.1%) 4,249,390 (3.9%) 3,415,253 (3.1%) 3,124,037 (2.9%) 1,478,892 (1.4%) 1,642,115 (1.5%) 149,787 (0.1%) 0 20,000,000 40,000,000 60,000,000 80,000,000 100,000,000 ≤ 50,000 บาท 50,000 บาท <, ≤100,000 บาท 100,000 บาท <, ≤ 200,000 บาท 200,000 บาท <, ≤ 500,000 บาท 500,000 บาท <, ≤ 1,000,000 บาท 1,000,000 บาท <, ≤ 10,000,000 บาท ตั้งแต่ 10,000,000 บาทขึ้นไป จานวนบัญชีเงินฝากของประชาชนไทย
- 11. Source:OurWorld in Data, University of Oxford,Google, Apple, Bloomberg High Frequency Dashboard Signals forThailand’s Economic Activity 4-Mar 11-Mar 18-Mar 25-Mar 1-Apr 8-Apr 15-Apr 22-Apr 29-Apr 6-May 13-May 20-May 27-May 3-Jun 10-Jun 17-Jun 24-Jun 1-Jul 8-Jul 15-Jul 22-Jul 29-Jul 5-Aug New Covid-19 Deaths (1) 2 0 4 3 2 1 2 20 71 148 182 185 217 226 229 180 220 305 382 570 665 865 1,101 New Covid-19 Cases (1) 398 436 896 949 446 1421 7143 10660 15457 13241 16983 25791 21632 28131 18190 20186 24923 32187 43396 63985 80917 107898 132275 Covid-19 Vaccines (2) 0.01 0.05 0.08 0.14 0.24 0.58 0.73 1.19 1.54 1.72 2.03 2.47 3.32 3.91 5.94 7.53 8.89 10.55 12.61 14.93 16.91 18.95 21.75 Lockdown Intensity(3) 46.88 46.88 46.88 46.88 46.88 46.88 46.88 52.08 56.77 59.27 60.83 60.83 60.83 60.83 58.33 57.71 57.71 57.71 57.71 57.71 57.71 57.71 - Retail & Recreation (4) 5 3 3 5 10 4 -10 -18 -24 -26 -28 -24 -13 -5 -10 -12 -13 -15 -11 -19 -22 -27 -27 Transit (4) -32 -30 -30 -28 -24 -27 -45 -49 -54 -58 -57 -56 -53 -49 -49 -49 -50 -51 -50 -56 -59 -64 -61 Work (4) -9 -2 -1 -1 -2 -10 -41 -22 -19 -29 -21 -19 -18 -14 -11 -11 -13 -14 -12 -15 -18 -31 -21 Driving (5) 84 82 79 86 91 96 98 59 48 45 46 48 53 59 60 60 64 60 55 42 39 39 39 Walking (5) 56 57 56 61 63 65 54 41 37 35 35 36 40 44 45 46 47 45 43 35 32 32 31 Travel Web Search (6) 27 31 31 30 32 30 29 33 36 35 37 31 41 38 42 37 39 49 36 44 44 45 39 Equities (7) 2.88 2.06 -0.27 0.27 1.55 -1.79 -0.99 1.76 0.66 -0.31 -0.07 -1.10 1.33 3.12 0.48 -0.53 -2.40 0.10 -2.78 -0.29 -1.10 -0.20 -0.65 Foregin Bond Flows (8) 0.03 -0.13 -0.11 -0.06 0.07 0.09 -0.09 0.02 -0.08 0.25 -0.13 -0.30 0.07 -0.05 0.08 -0.32 -0.15 0.05 -0.05 -0.12 0.34 -0.03 0.06 Baht (9) -1.11 -1.15 0.05 -0.93 -0.82 -0.31 -0.74 0.68 0.18 0.70 -0.40 -0.63 0.45 0.54 0.05 -0.53 -2.25 -0.69 -1.18 -1.01 -0.57 -0.10 -0.74 Note: (1) Seven day sum (Starting 1st Jan 2021), (2) Share of people who received at least one dose of COVID-19 vaccine, (3) Oxford COVID-19 Government Response Tracker, (4) Goolge Mobility compared to baseline, (5) Apple's Mobility Index, seven day average, (6) Google Trends web searches related to travel, (7)Seven day percent change in Thailand's SET index in Thai baht, (8) Seven day change in net foreign bond flows in billion of USD,Thai baht versus USD (9) Seven day percent change in the Thai baht versus USD
- 15. Source: BIS, BOT, Macrobond
- 18. Source: BOT ความคืบหน้าโครงการพักทรัพย์พัก หนี้ ความคืบหน้าโครงการสินเชื่อฟื้นฟู มูลค่าสินทรัพย์ที่รับโอน 1855.09 ล้านบาท จานวนผู้ได้รับความช่วยเหลือ 21 ราย สินเชื่อฟื้นฟูที่อนุมัติแล้ว 85,872 ล้านบาท จานวนผู้ได้รับความช่วยเหลือ 28,224 ราย วงเงินอนุมัติเฉลี่ย 3.0 ล้านบาท/ราย ข้อมูล ณ วันที่ 2 ส.ค. 2564 ข้อมูล ณ วันที่ 2 ส.ค. 2564
- 19. ประเด็นที่ 3: US Job Report
- 20. Source: US Bureau of Labor Statistics
- 21. Source: US Bureau of Labor Statistics US 10Y GovernmentYield rose
- 22. Source: US Bureau of Labor Statistics Dollar Index rose
- 23. Source: US Bureau of Labor Statistics Gold Price tumbled
- 24. ประเด็นที่ 2: Bank of England (Recovery)
- 25. Bank of England MPC
- 26. ประเด็นที่ 1: Olympics and GDP
- 27. Source: DroneDJ Tokyo Olympics Closing Ceremony
- 28. Source: Tokyo Olympics Closing Ceremony
- 31. Thank You 31
Editor's Notes
- 30% of the world population has received at least one dose of a COVID-19 vaccine, and 15.5% is fully vaccinated. 4.46 billion doses have been administered globally, and 38.2 million are now administered each day. Only 1.1% of people in low-income countries have received at least one dose. Now the challenge is to make these vaccines available to people around the world. It will be key that people in all countries — not just in rich countries — receive the required protection.
- https://www.euronews.com/2021/08/07/protests-against-covid-19-health-pass-held-across-france-for-4th-consecutive-week https://www.euronews.com/2021/07/24/tens-of-thousands-protest-against-health-pass-in-France https://www.forbes.com/sites/alexledsom/2021/08/08/france-protests-but-vaccine-passport-enforcement-is-working/?sh=5d30b06e103a
- https://www.npr.org/2021/06/09/1004430257/theres-a-stark-red-blue-divide-when-it-comes-to-states-vaccination-rates Percentage of state’s population age 18 and older that has received at least one dose of a COVID-19 vaccine as of June 7. Size of circle represents the state’s overall population. The key issue is that demand has dropped off. After an initial crush, the number of doses being administered daily is on a steep decline from the early April peak. So what's going on? A few things to note: There's a huge political divide. Speaking over the weekend, former President Donald Trump took credit for the vaccine rollout and told a North Carolina crowd of supporters that "most of you" have likely been vaccinated. But surveys have shown Trump supporters are the least likely to say they have been vaccinated or plan to be. The top 22 states (including D.C.) with the highest adult vaccination rates all went to Joe Biden in the 2020 presidential election. Some of the least vaccinated states are the most pro-Trump. Trump won 17 of the 18 states with the lowest adult vaccination rates. Many of these states have high proportions of whites without college degrees.
- https://data.cdc.gov/Vaccinations/COVID-19-Vaccinations-in-the-United-States-Jurisdi/unsk-b7fc
- (Bloomberg) -- U.S. employers added the most jobs in nearly a year and the unemployment rate declined faster than forecast, showing the labor market is making greater progress toward a full recovery. Payrolls climbed by 943,000 last month after an upwardly revised 938,000 increase in June, a Labor Department report showed Friday. The median estimate in a Bloomberg survey of economists called for a 870,000 advance. The unemployment rate dropped by a half percentage point to 5.4%. The dollar and 10-year Treasury yields advanced as traders bet a strengthening labor market will lead Federal Reserve officials to begin pulling back their bond buying program. Stocks were mixed in early trading. The figures mark a big step toward the Fed’s goal of “substantial” further progress in the labor market recovery. Officials including Chair Jerome Powell and Governor Lael Brainard have indicated the labor-market recovery had some way to go before the central bank could begin tapering asset purchases. Fed Governor Christopher Waller said this week that if the next two monthly employment reports show continued gains, he could back such a move.
- CERTAIN COUNTRIES seem to have a knack for success at particular sports. Australia excels at swimming, Brazil at beach volleyball, Cuba at boxing and Britain at sailing. The Olympic games, with its hundreds of medal events across myriad sporting disciplines, is a test of countries’ all-round sporting prowess. The 32nd Olympic games in Tokyo ended on August 8th with American athletes taking home more medals than any other country. Team USA has topped the Olympic medals table in 16 of the past 24 games, and in every year since 1992 (we prefer medal points won as the metric of success, which gives three points for a gold medal, two for silver and one for a bronze). This dominance of the Olympic games may appear unassailable, but during the cold war America vied with the Soviet Union for supremacy. Between 1952 and 1992 the Soviet Union beat America in six of the nine games in which the two countries went head-to-head (newly-independent Soviet states competed as a single team in 1992). On paper, it should not have been much of a match: although the USSR’s population was a sixth larger than America’s, estimates of its economic output put its GDP at one-quarter that of its rival. But athletes from the USSR and other Eastern bloc countries benefited from a vast allocation of resources to sports and state-sponsored doping programmes. An analysis by The Economist finds that economics determines much of Olympic glory. We tested the relationship between a battery of variables—population, health, education and economic output—and the share of Olympic medals won in each Olympic games. We found that share of world GDP was the single biggest factor in determining success. GDP alone explains 55% of the variation in Olympic medals won since 1960
- U.S. Olympians who reach the podium receive payments of $37,500 for every gold medal won, $22,500 for silver and $15,000 for bronze. Which country gives the biggest medal bonus? Singapore offers what could be the biggest prize for an individual gold medal: 1 million in Singaporean dollars, or roughly $750,000 USD. Silver medal winners get about $369,000 and $184,000 for bronze, CNBC reports. Medalists from the next highest two countries, Kazakhstan and Malaysia, earn about $250,000 for gold medal. The 2020 Tokyo Olympics host country Japan gives athletes finishing at the podium $45,000 for gold, $18,000 for silver and $9,000 for bronze. In 2013, Reuters reported that now-retired Jamaican sprinter Usain Bolt signed a roughly $10 million a year deal with Puma during the years he continued to compete. Forbes in 2016 estimated Bolt made nearly $33 million during a 12-month period.