วิเคราะห์ GDP จีน Q3 กระทบเศรษฐกิจอย่างไร? (Edited)
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B-Focus — 5 ประเด็นเด่นเศรษฐกิจประจำสัปดาห์ 18 ตุลาคม 2021 หัวข้อ : วิเคราะห์ GDP จีน Q3 กระทบเศรษฐกิจอย่างไร? (อัพเดทใหม่วันที่ 20 ต.ค.)
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วิเคราะห์ GDP จีน Q3 กระทบเศรษฐกิจอย่างไร? (Edited)
- 1. 1 Economic Outlook Burin Adulwattana Chief Economist 1
- 2. 2 ประเด็นที่ 5: COVID-19 Update
- 3. 3 Global Source: Bloomberg, Our world in data, MOH Singapore, หมอพร้อม Only 2.7% of people in low-income countries have received at least one dose
- 4. 4 Australia Source: Reuters From Nov. 1 , the Australian city of Sydney will allow the entry of fully vaccinated travelers from overseas without quaranti ne
- 5. 5 United States Source: Reuters U.S. to lift restrictions Nov 8 for fully vaccinated foreign travelers
- 6. 6 Bali, Indonesia Source: Thairath บาหลีเปิดเกาะวันแรก 14 ตุลาคม แต่บรรยากาศยังเงียบเหงา
- 7. 7 Thailand Source: Thaipost 1 พ.ย. 15 จังหวัดพร้อมเปิดประเทศรับนักท่องเที่ยว 100%
- 9. 9 Climate action at COP26 could save millions of lives Source: Statista, BBC, gizbot More than 120 world leaders will gather in the conference during 31 Oct – 12 Nov 2021 in Glasgow
- 10. 10 Billionaire space race Source: The conversation What does it mean for climate change and the environment?
- 11. 11 ประเด็นที่ 3: Russia (Natural Gas)
- 12. 12 Gas prices have spiked around the world Source: Bloomberg, BBC, Eurostat European spot gas prices have surged by 800% this year
- 13. 13 Russia is not using gas as a weapon Source: CNBC
- 14. 14 Japanese Yen is at three year low against the US dollar
- 16. 16 World Economic Outlook Source: IMF Thailand 2020 -6.1 2021F 1.0 2022F 4.5
- 17. 17 44.2 67.8 50.4 8.2 32.4 57.9 35.7 4.3 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 World Advanced economies Emerging market economies Low-income developing countries Percent At least one dose Fully vaccinated The Great Vaccination Divide Source: Our World in Data, IMF staff calculations. (Data as of September 22, 2021) Progress in vaccinations against COVID-198 remains highly unequal across the world
- 18. 18 Global Activity Indicators Source: IHS Markit, Macrobond 54.1 53.4 53.0 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55 60 Oct-18 Nov-18 Dec-18 Jan-19 Feb-19 Mar-19 Apr-19 May-19 Jun-19 Jul-19 Aug-19 Sep-19 Oct-19 Nov-19 Dec-19 Jan-20 Feb-20 Mar-20 Apr-20 May-20 Jun-20 Jul-20 Aug-20 Sep-20 Oct-20 Nov-20 Dec-20 Jan-21 Feb-21 Mar-21 Apr-21 May-21 Jun-21 Jul-21 Aug-21 Sep-21 Index Manufacturing PMI Services PMI
- 19. 19 ประเด็นที่ 1: China GDP
- 20. 20 Recovery Slows Source: FT China’s on-quarter growth momentum weakens to 0.2%
- 21. 21 Retail Sales Pick Up Slightly Source: Bloomberg But retail and industrial growth are both sluggish
- 22. 22 Thank You
Editor's Notes
- 47.5% of the world population has received at least one dose of a COVID-19 vaccine. 6.65 billion doses have been administered globally, and 20.44 million are now administered each day. Only 2.7% of people in low-income countries have received at least one dose.
- The Australian city of Sydney will allow the entry of fully vaccinated travelers from overseas from Nov. 1 without the need for quarantine The decision comes as New South Wales state, of which Sydney is capital, is expected to reach an 80% first-vaccination dose rate on Saturday, well ahead of the rest of Australia, which will enable it to bring forward the entry of overseas arrivals by several weeks But Prime Minister Scott Morrison who said the government would stick with plans to first open the border to citizens and permanent residents. "This is about Australian residents and citizens first," Morrison told reporters in Sydney. https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/covid-19-infections-linger-near-record-levels-australias-victoria-2021-10-14/
- The White House on Friday will lift COVID-19 travel restrictions for fully vaccinated international visitors starting Nov. 8, ending historic restrictions that had barred much of the world from entering the United States for as long as 21 months. Starting Nov. 8, the United States will admit fully vaccinated foreign air travelers from the 26 so-called Schengen countries in Europe, including France, Germany, Italy, Spain, Switzerland and Greece, as well as Britain, Ireland, China, India, South Africa, Iran and Brazil. โดยหน่วยงานสาธารณสุขสหรัฐฯ ระบุว่า ผู้เดินทางจะต้องฉีดวัคซีนที่ได้รับการรับรองจากองค์การอาหารและยาสหรัฐฯ และองค์การอนามัยโลก รวมถึงได้รับการตรวจโรคภายใน 3 วันก่อนออกเดินทาง ขณะที่สายการบินจะต้องมีมาตรการการติดตามสอบสวนโรคที่รัดกุม ขณะนี้วัคซีนที่ได้รับรองสามารถเดินทางเข้าสหรัฐฯ ได้ ได้แก่ แอสตราเซเนกา, จอห์นสัน แอนด์ จอห์นสัน, โมเดอร์นา, ไฟเซอร์, ซิโนฟาร์ม และซิโนแวค https://www.reuters.com/world/us/exclusive-us-partly-lift-international-travel-curbs-nov-8-official-2021-10-15/ https://www.thairath.co.th/news/foreign/2221255
- เมื่อวันพฤหัสบดีที่ 14 ตุลาคม เกาะบาหลีแหล่งท่องเที่ยวชื่อดังของอินโดนีเซีย กลับมาเปิดรับนักท่องเที่ยวเป็นครั้งแรกในรอบเกือบ 2 ปี อย่างไรก็ตามขณะนี้ยังไม่มีเที่ยวบินจากต่างประเทศที่จะเดินทางมาถึงบาหลีในวันนี้ โดยเจ้าหน้าที่การท่องเที่ยวเกาะชวาและบาหลี ระบุว่า ตอนนี้ยังมีข้อกำหนดที่เข้มงวด (ต้องมีใบรับรองการฉีดวัคซีนและต้องยังกักตัวถึง 5 วัน) และนักท่องเที่ยวจะต้องเสียค่าใช้จ่ายเพิ่มขึ้นเมื่อมาถึง ซึ่งอาจเป็นอุปสรรคต่อการตัดสินใจของนักท่องเที่ยว แต่เชื่อว่านักท่องเที่ยวน่าจะกลับมาในช่วงเดือนพฤศจิกายน นักท่องเที่ยวจาก 19 ประเทศ ได้แก่ เกาหลีใต้, จีน, อินเดีย, ญี่ปุ่น, นิวซีแลนด์, สหรัฐอาหรับเอมิเรตส์, ซาอุดีอาระเบีย, คูเวต, บาห์เรน, กาตาร์, ลิกเตนสไตน์, อิตาลี, ฝรั่งเศส, โปรตุเกส, สเปน, สวีเดน, โปแลนด์, ฮังการีและนอร์เวย์ โดยพิจารณาจากข้อมูลขององค์การอนามัยโลกที่ระบุถึงประเทศที่มีความเสี่ยงน้อยและเป็นประเทศที่พบผู้ติดเชื้อรายใหม่ไม่มาก https://www.thaipost.net/main/detail/119758?fbclid=IwAR0a4jii8tcpnOIx-Pmk3vVfzV4Zj2I0UK-McFpEOrctRys6HHn23lkvVbE https://edition.cnn.com/travel/article/bali-riau-indonesia-tourism-reopening-intl-hnk/index.html?fbclid=IwAR37UtxEVPbjcFuZ6sM-0HAGhZzCAjwZ5MK2GuYXmaOBP0G8Wn2uYX9S2D8
- 18 ต.ค. 2564 นายพิพัฒน์ รัชกิจประการ รัฐมนตรีว่าการกระทรวงการท่องเที่ยวและกีฬา เปิดเผยว่าตามที่พลเอกประยุทธ์ จันทร์โอชา นายกรัฐมนตรี ได้มีการประกาศออกมาว่าวันที่ 1 พ.ย.นี้ มีความพร้อม 100%ประเทศไทยจะเปิดประเทศโดยไม่ต้องกักตัว โดยเงื่อนไขคือต้องได้รับการฉีดวัคซีนครบ 2 เข็ม หรือครบโดส และต้องมีหลักฐานผลการตรวจหาเชื้อโควิด-19 ด้วยวิธี RT-PCR ที่รับรองผลด้วยประเทศต้นทางไม่เกิน 72 ชั่วโมง(ชม) และมีการตรวจหาเชื้ออีกครั้ง เมื่อเดินทางมาถึงประเทศไทยเมื่อผลเป็นลบ (negative) จะสามารถเดินทางท่องเที่ยวโดยไม่ต้องกักตัว 14วัน หรือ 7 วัน เหมือนในอดีต สำหรับการเปิดประเทศเพื่อรับนักท่องเที่ยววันที่ 1 พ.ย.นั้น มี 15จังหวัด ได้แก่ กรุงเทพมหานคร จังหวัดระนอง(เกาะพยาม) จังหวัดประจวบคีรีขันธ์ (อ.หัวหิน) จังหวัดเพชรบุรี (อ.ชะอำ) และเข้ามาสู้กรุงเทพมหานคร ส่วนภาคตะวันออกจังหวัดชลบุรี (เมืองพัทยา อ.บางละมุง อ.สัตหีบ) ภาคเหนือจังหวัดเชียงใหม่ (อ.เมือง อ.แม่ริม อ.แม่แตง อ.ดอยเต่า) ภาคอีสาน จังหวัดเลย(อ.เชียงคาน) ส่วนจะมีเพิ่มเติมจังหวัดไหนอีกนั้นต้องรอประกาศเพิ่มเติม สำหรับนักท่องเที่ยวจากทั่วโลกที่จะเดินทางเข้ามานั้น ต้องเป็นประเทศที่มีความเสี่ยงด้านโควิด-19 ตํ่าสุด ซึ่งเร็วๆนี้ ศบค.จะประเทศอย่างเป็นทางการอีกครั้ง ซึ่งชัดเจนว่าประเทศใหญ่ๆ เช่น สหรัฐอเมริกา อังกฤษ เยอรมัน จีน และสิงคโปร์ ประเทศเหล่านี้อยู่ในจำนวนประเทศที่ ศบค.จะประกาศออกมาเพื่อรับนักท่องเที่ยว https://www.thaipost.net/main/detail/120049
- https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2021/oct/11/what-is-cop26-and-why-does-it-matter-the-complete-guide What is Cop26 and why does it matter? The complete guide | Cop26 | The Guardian What is Cop26? For almost three decades, world governments have met nearly every year to forge a global response to the climate emergency. “avoid dangerous climate change”, and find ways to reduce greenhouse gas emissions globally in an equitable way. Cop stands for conference of the parties under the UNFCCC, and the annual meetings have swung between fractious and soporific, interspersed with moments of high drama and the occasional triumph (the Paris agreement in 2015) and disaster (Copenhagen in 2009). This year is the 26th iteration, postponed by a year because of the Covid-19 pandemic, and to be hosted by the UK in Glasgow. When? The conference will officially open on 31 October, The talks are scheduled to end at 6pm on Friday 12 November more than 120 world leaders will gather About 25,000 people are expected to attend the conference in total. https://www.planetark.org/newsroom/news/making-the-connection-between-circular-economy-and-cop26 The four goals of COP26 are: Secure global net zero by mid-century and keep 1.5 degrees within reach. Countries are being asked to set ambitious 2030 emissions reduction targets that put them on a path to net zero by 2050. Adapt to protect communities and natural habitats. Countries are encouraged to protect and restore ecosystems and build defences, warning systems and resilient infrastructure and agriculture to mitigate impacts of climate change. Mobilise finance. Countries will need to mobilise at least $100 billion in climate finance per year by 2020 to deliver on goals 1 and 2. Work together to deliver. At COP26 countries must finalise the Paris Rulebook and accelerate action to tackle the climate crisis through collaboration between governments, businesses and civil society. https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-58923924 Queen 'irritated' by climate change inaction in COP26 build-up - BBC News The Queen has appeared to suggest she is irritated by people who "talk" but "don't do", ahead of next month's climate change summit. Her reported remarks were overheard during the opening of the Welsh parliament on Thursday. The monarch, who is due to attend the UN's COP26 climate conference in Glasgow, Prince Charles and Prince William have also spoken of their climate concerns. Prince William spoke to the BBC's Newscast on Thursday, and suggested entrepreneurs should focus on saving Earth rather than engaging in space tourism. William urged a more grounded approach. It is "crucial to be focusing on this [planet] rather than giving up and heading out into space to try and think of solutions for the future," he told the BBC. He also warned the COP26 summit against "clever speak, clever words but not enough action", saying it was "critical" for the world leaders to "communicate very clearly and very honestly what the problems are and what the solutions are going to be". In an interview with the BBC's climate editor Justin Rowlatt, the Prince of Wales said he was worried that world leaders would "just talk" when they meet, saying: "The problem is to get action on the ground". • Chart: Who Will Suffer Economically From Climate Change? | Statista Who Will Suffer Economically From Climate Change? From a standpoint that only takes into account the increased danger of floods, droughts, the loss of ecosystems and viable environments for human habitation, people in developing countries are most vulnerable to climate change destroying their homes and livelihoods. GDP losses vary to a high degree across countries and also affect some developed countries severely. Canada, the U.S., Japan and South Korea are among those expected to be suffering the biggest GDP losses if climate change is not stopped or severely slowed down, together with developing nations like Bhutan, Nepal, Kazakhstan and India. The developed nations mentioned above would already suffer losses under to the 2° C warming goal of the Paris Agreement, something that is opposite in European nations. What is COP26 and why does the fate of Earth, and Australia's prosperity, depend on it? (theconversation.com) https://theconversation.com/what-is-cop26-and-why-does-the-fate-of-earth-and-australias-prosperity-depend-on-it-169648 What is COP26 and why does the fate of Earth, and Australia’s prosperity, depend on it? With the right policy settings, Australia could grow a clean export mix worth A$333 billion annually, almost triple the value of existing fossil fuel exports. Getting to net-zero could also create 672,000 jobs, and generate A$2.1 trillion in economic activity by mid-century.
- Billionaire space race: What does it mean for the environment? - BBC Science Focus Magazine https://www.sciencefocus.com/news/billionaire-space-race-what-does-it-mean-for-climate-change-and-the-environment/ Commercial space travel is clearly firing up, and is predicted to become big business. Branson’s Virgin Galactic plans to begin regular commercial services in 2022, and already has 600 reservations at around $250,000 to $500,000 a ticket. For NASA astronauts, McAlister says, orbital trips can have a $58 million price tag, based on averages calculated from commercial contracts with SpaceX and Boeing. According to a recent analysis from Swiss finance firm UBS, the space tourism industry will be worth $4bn by 2030. Rockets burn through huge amounts of propellants to take off. But there are a variety of ways to launch rockets into space, so understanding the exact impacts of each craft is not always straightforward. “With all space travel, including space tourism, the environmental impacts depend on a variety of factors that are specific to the mission,” said Dr Simit Raval, a senior lecturer at the University of New South Wales and co-author of a recent analysis on space launch emissions. Arguably, the two most important environmental impacts of space travel are its contribution to global warming and stratospheric ozone loss, says Raval. According to one estimate by Dr Eloise Marais at University College London, carbon dioxide emissions for the four or so tourists on a space flight will be up to 100 times more than the emissions per passenger of a long-haul flight — already an extremely carbon intensive activity. (A rocket launch costs about 200 to 300 tons of CO2, shared by four passengers or so. So basically it’s 20 to 60 times as much carbon per individual.”) “Launches into space each have significant ecological footprints per launch,” When it comes to climate change, much depends on the propellant, says Peeters. For example, hybrid rocket engines, a relatively new addition to the space industry which was used on Virgin Galactic’s SpaceShipTwo, run on both solid and liquid fuel and release far more black carbon than kerosene fuel. “If hybrid rockets, which are assumed to be relatively cheap to operate, become popular, a climate disaster is looming,” says Peeters. The best decision, he says, would be to agree internationally that commercial space travel is “not a wise development” due to the current ongoing environmental and health crises. Additional carbon emissions could also come from building the Earth spaceports and the space tourists flying to launch sites, possibly using private jets, says Annette Toivonen, tourism lecturer at Haaga-Helia University of Applied Sciences in Finland. In the first quarter of 2021, global sustainable funds attracted $185.3 billion, up 17% from the prior quarter according to Morningstar – with the EU and the US accounting for 79.2% and 11.5% of that, respectively. Amazon CEO Jeff Bezos plans to spend the $10 billion he invested in the Bezos Earth Fund by 2030
- Europe's energy crisis: Five charts to explain why your bills might go up this winter | Euronews https://www.euronews.com/2021/10/13/europe-s-energy-crisis-five-charts-to-explain-why-your-bills-might-go-up-this-winter Natural gas prices have surged in Europe as countries exit COVID-19 lockdown, fuelling a crisis that is likely to impact consumers' bills this winter. The cost is now six times higher than what it was last year in Europe and is continuing to increase, with the crisis unlikely to abate before the spring. Natural gas prices rising steadily The price of natural gas is six times higher than last year and about four times higher than this past spring. It's due to an increase in demand globally as countries restart their economies and come out of lockdown. A longer winter last year and competition from East Asian countries for gas has influenced rising prices. Natural gas imports The EU is heavily reliant on natural gas imports that come from outside the bloc, as domestic production decreases. The EU had to import nearly 90% of its natural gas from outside the bloc Russia is the largest exporter of natural gas into the bloc, representing 43.4% of imports from outside the European Union in 2020, followed by Norway. Natural gas storage One of the concerns in the European Union this year is natural gas storage which is lower than what it was at this time last year. While it was at around 95% last October, it is currently at around 75% after stocks decreased following a long winter. Euro-area inflation The surge in natural gas prices has driven up inflation across the 19 countries that make up the eurozone as well, according to newly released Eurostat data. Inflation is at a 13-year high of 3.4% in eurozone countries due to the 17.4% inflation in the energy sector. That was up from -8.2% inflation in the same sector last September. Importance of natural gas in EU consumption Natural gas is the second-most consumed fuel in the 27 EU member states after oil and petroleum products. Although consumption has decreased compared to 2008, it remains a large source of energy. The EU’s electricity market and why soaring gas prices are driving bills higher | Financial Times (ft.com) https://www.ft.com/content/f37d2a36-4609-4b3e-9795-064b6d459676 Why is the price of electricity rising? Generally gas is the fuel that is needed to make sure enough energy is supplied to meet demand. So even in countries such as France — where cheaper nuclear power provides about 70 per cent of electricity — gas is still driving the wholesale electric price. And as the gas price has soared, so has the price of electricity.
- https://www.cnbc.com/2021/10/13/putin-says-russia-is-not-using-gas-as-a-weapon-is-ready-to-help-europe.html Putin says Russia is not using gas as a weapon, is ready to help Europe (cnbc.com) Russian President Vladimir Putin said Russia stands ready to help Europe as its energy crisis continues. He denied that Russia was using energy as a “weapon” against its neighbor. Putin laid the blame for Europe’s gas shortages at its own door, as well as blaming a lack of renewable energy generation this summer and reduced supplies from other partners, including the U.S. Experts believe Russia has been restricting gas supplies to Europe in an attempt to put pressure on Germany to speed up the certification of the now-completed Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline, which will boost gas supplies to Europe via the Baltic Sea. The pipeline has a number of prominent critics, including the U.S. as well as Eastern European countries Poland and Ukraine, who say the pipeline increases Europe’s dependence on Russian energy supplies and weakens the region in terms of energy security. Russia is the third-largest producer of fossil fuels globally and it accounts for just more than 40% of the EU’s gas imports every year, according to the latest data from Eurostat. Nord Stream 2 fills first line with gas ready for export | Reuters https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/nord-stream-2-says-first-line-is-filled-with-technical-gas-2021-10-18/ MOSCOW, Oct 18 (Reuters) - The operator of the Russia-led Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline on the bed of the Baltic Sea said the first of the project's two lines has been filled with so-called technical gas, while still awaiting clearance to start sales to Europe. The pipeline, funded by Kremlin-owned energy giant Gazprom (GAZP.MM) and its European partners, is expected to gain certification from a German regulator to begin commercial sales of natural gas, though the approval process could take several months. Russia has said Nord Stream 2, which is set to double Moscow's annual gas export capacity in the Baltic to 110 billion cubic metres, could provide relief to the European gas market, which has been grappling with tight supplies and soaring prices. Russia seeing record gas demand but still ready to boost EU supplies, Novak says | Reuters https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/russia-seeing-record-gas-demand-still-ready-boost-eu-supplies-novak-says-2021-10-16/ Russian gas consumption is running at a record high but Moscow is still ready to increase supplies to Europe should it receive such requests, Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak said on Saturday. European spot gas prices have surged by 800% this year as demand has recovered after the coronavirus pandemic. Prices eased earlier this month after Russia, Europe's key gas supplier, said it could deliver more, but these supplies have yet to materialise. Russia, whose gas production and exports to EU are already near record highs, has said it needs to finish filling its own gas storage reserves before it increases supplies to Europe's spot market. It plans to complete this by end-October. Novak did not say how large Russia's gas reserves were but estimated that European underground facilities were short of around 25 billion cubic metres of gas.
- IMF cuts its global growth forecast, citing supply disruptions and the pandemic The International Monetary Fund is now less optimistic about the global economy for 2021, but still sees reasonable growth over the medium term. In its World Economic Outlook, published Tuesday, the Fund said it expects global gross domestic product to grow by 5.9% this year — 0.1 percentage point lower than its July estimate. For next year, the IMF has kept its global growth projection at 4.9%. The revised outlook for this year comes amid supply chain issues in advanced economies and a worsening health situation in emerging countries. “This modest headline revision masks large downgrades for some countries,” Gita Gopinath, chief economist at the IMF, said in an accompanying blogpost. “The outlook for the low-income developing country group has darkened considerably due to worsening pandemic dynamics. The downgrade also reflects more difficult near-term prospects for the advanced economy group, in part due to supply disruptions.”
- A recovery gap The IMF said it was particularly concerned about the different paces of recovery in advanced and emerging economies. Its estimates show that while advanced economies could exceed their pre-pandemic levels in 2024, developing countries, excluding China, could remain 5.5% below their pre-pandemic forecast. “These divergences are a consequence of the ‘great vaccine divide’ and large disparities in policy support,” Gopinath said. “While over 60% of the population in advanced economies are fully vaccinated and some are now receiving booster shots, about 96% of the population in low-income countries remain unvaccinated.” Inflation Consumer prices have risen substantially over the last couple of months on the back of supply chain disruptions and higher commodity prices, notably gas. In the U.S., consumer prices rose 5.4% in July from a year earlier — matching the largest jump since August 2008 — before easing slightly in August. Meanwhile, in the euro zone, inflation reached a 13-year high in September. This rising inflation has ramped up the pressure on central banks to ease off their monetary stimulus programs quicker than anticipated. “Inflation risks are skewed to the upside and could materialize if pandemic-induced supply-demand mismatches continue longer than expected,” the Fund warned in its report. As a result, the IMF warned that, “although central banks can generally look through transitory inflation pressures and avoid tightening until there is more clarity on underlying price dynamics, they should be prepared to act quickly if the recovery strengthens faster than expected or risks of rising inflation expectations become tangible.” Source: https://www.cnbc.com/2021/10/12/imf-cuts-growth-forecast-as-supply-disruptions-covid-pandemic-weighs.html
- Global manufacturing upturn remains constrained by supply chain disruptions and input shortages The global manufacturing upturn was subdued by supply chain disruptions and material shortages in September. Although output growth accelerated for the first time in five months, it remained among the slowest during the current 15-month sequence of expansion. The pace of expansion in new orders also ticked higher from a recent low. Supply constraints fed through to prices, leading to marked inflation of both input costs and factory gate selling prices. The J.P.Morgan Global Manufacturing PMI™ – a composite index produced by J.P.Morgan and IHS Markit in association with ISM and IFPSM – posted 54.1 in September, unchanged from August's six-month low. The PMI has now signalled expansion for 15 successive months. Data broken down by sector showed that growth continued across the consumer, intermediate and investment goods industries. PMI readings ticked higher for the intermediate goods sector, was unchanged for consumer goods and edged lower in the investment goods category. The latter retained its position at the top of the growth rankings, however. Of the 31 nations for which September data were available, 24 registered PMI readings above the 50.0 no change mark signalling expansion. European manufacturing dominated the top of the growth rankings, with nine out of the 10 best readings (Austria, the Netherlands, Ireland, Italy, Germany, Greece, Spain, Czech Republic and the UK). US manufacturing also performed strongly (third place overall). The weaker performances were generally seen in Asia. Of the 12 lowest PMI readings in September, ten were from nations located wholly on the continent, including four of the six countries to register sub-50.0 readings (Thailand, Malaysia, Myanmar and Vietnam). Mexico and Russia also registered sub-50.0 readings. Source: https://www.markiteconomics.com/Public/Home/PressRelease/cf6b160c3cbc4d6baee52eefc85fec24
- China Property and Energy Crises Deliver Blow to GDP Growth (Bloomberg) -- China’s economy weakened in the third quarter, weighed by multiple headwinds from a property slump to an energy crisis. Gross domestic product expanded 4.9% from a year earlier, the National Bureau of Statistics said Monday, down from a previously reported 7.9% in the preceding quarter and compared with a median forecast of 5% in a Bloomberg survey of economists. Beijing’s tighter restrictions on the property market have curbed construction activity and squeezed financing to the sector. Meantime, a worsening debt crisis at China Evergrande Group is now spilling over to other developers and contributing to a slump in land sales. On top of that, electricity shortages in September forced factories to curb output or shut completely, while strict measures to contain sporadic coronavirus outbreaks continued to weigh on consumer spending. “The investment side of demand is pretty weak, and the power crunch impact on the supply side is also pretty severe,” Helen Qiao, chief Greater China economist at Bank of America Corp, said in an interview on Bloomberg TV. Fourth-quarter growth is likely to drop to 3% to 4%, she said. Growth was always expected to slow in the third quarter given the higher base of comparison from a year ago, however the severity of the energy crisis and property slowdown has surprised economists, prompting many to downgrade their full-year GDP forecasts. People’s Bank of China Governor Yi Gang said Sunday the recovery remains intact even though growth momentum has “moderated somewhat.” He forecast the economy would expand about 8% this year. That’s higher than Beijing’s modest target of above 6% for the year, which suggests authorities may not be in any rush to pump in significant stimulus to arrest the slowdown. Economists expect targeted fiscal and monetary support, with a smaller chance of another cut in the reserve requirement ratio for banks.
- Industrial Production Industrial production expanded incrementally (+0.05%) in September from August on a seasonally-adjusted basis, down August’s 0.3% rise. That was the slowest month-on-month pace since 1Q 2020 during the Covid-induced lockdown. The average growth rate over a two-year period also decelerated to 5.0%, down significantly from 5.5% in August. Manufacturing production was the main drag, with the pace of increase slowing to 2.4% year on year from August’s 5.5%. Going the other way, mining production growth strengthened 3.2% year on year, up from 2.5% in August. The slowdown in production growth was broad-based across company type. Output by private firms slowed further to 2.8% year on year from 5.2% in August. Production by state-owned enterprises eased to 4.5% year on year from 4.6% in the previous month. High-tech manufacturing maintained double-digit growth, though it moderated to 14.0% year on year from 18.3% in August. On the non-manufacturing side, services production growth rebounded to 5.2% year on year from August’s 4.8%. That reflected the recovery in services as the delta outbreak was brought under control. The average two-year growth of services production jumped to 5.3% from 4.4% in August, near July’s pace of 5.6% before the regional outbreaks. Retail Sales Looking at two-year average growth in retail sales, the pace rebounded to 3.8% in September from 1.5% in August. That was also up from July’s 3.6% -- before the regional delta outbreak. Services consumption recovered more visibly, with catering jumping to 3.1% year-on-year growth, reserving August’s fall of 4.5%. On a two-year average basis, catering sales bounced to 0.1% growth from a fall of 5.8% in August, though that was still weaker than July’s rise of 0.9%. Retail sales of goods rose 4.3% over a two-year period, up from a 2.4% increase in August. But auto sales turned weaker, falling by 1.0% on a two-year average basis after a 1.8% rise in August. Online goods sales remained robust, keeping up double-digit two-year growth of 11.2% after August’s 12.3% expansion.