The Covid19 outbreak and the epidemic situations prevailing thereafter are completely unforeseen and anticipated for. With use of high frequency Macroeconomic Indicators, we can attempt to assess the economic impact of Covid-19. Feel free to go though and give your feedback.

1. Using High-Frequency Data to
Monitor the Economic Impact of COVID-19
Alexander Ivanov, Head of Macroeconomic Research
Mingfang Kan, China Macroeconomic Researcher

2. COVID-19 Latest Snapshot
1.3 million
Confirmed Cases
72,614
Deaths
80%
of confirmed cases
from 10 countries

3. Epidemic Frequency Indicators
1.5 1.8
2.7
4.0
5.6
6.2
9.5
11.6
12.3
Germany Korea USA China World Iran Spain France Italy
Case Fatality Rate, %
0.001 0.058 0.156 0.198
0.693
1.032
1.154
2.140
2.799
USA China World Korea Iran France Germany Italy Spain
Morbidity Rate, per mile
Source: CEIC Insights

4. Epidemic Dispersion
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
Deaths(log)
Confirmed Cases (log)
China
Italy
Source: CEIC Data, World Health Organization

5. Epidemic Dispersion
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
Deaths(log)
Confirmed Cases (log)
Italy
China
USA
Source: CEIC Data, World Health Organization

6. Epidemic Dispersion
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
Deaths(log)
Confirmed Cases (log)
Italy
USA
China
Germany
Source: CEIC Data, World Health Organization

7. COVID-2019: Mortality and Risk Factors
China
France
Germany
Iran
Italy
South Korea
Spain
United States
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20
AgedPopulation
Pre-Existing Conditions
Aged Population and Pre-Existing Conditions
Source: CEIC Insights, World Bank

8. COVID-2019: Mortality and Risk Factors
China
France
Germany
Iran
Italy
South Korea
Spain
United States
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
AgedPopulation
Diabetes Prevalence
Aged Population and Diabetes Prevalence
Source: CEIC Insights, World Bank

9. COVID-19 vs Previous Disease Outbreaks
SARS
Slope Coefficient: 0.0394
Ebola
Slope Coefficient: 0.0493
Influenza A1
Slope Coefficient: 0.0835
COVID-19
Slope Coefficient: 0.0773
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
1 4 7 10 13 16 19 22 25 28 31 34 37 40 43 46 49 52 55 58 61 64 67 70 73 76
ConfirmedCasesTrend(log)
Number of Days
Source: CEIC Insights

10. COVID-19 vs Previous Disease Outbreaks
5.6%
0.8%
9.4%
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
1 4 7 10 13 16 19 22 25 28 31 34 37 40 43 46 49 52 55 58 61 64 67 70
CaseFatalityRate,%
Number of Days
SARS
COVID-19
Influenza A
Source: CEIC Insights

11. Economic Impact: Stock Market (COVID-19)
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
2,125
2,325
2,525
2,725
2,925
3,125
3,325
3,525
01/20/2020 02/03/2020 02/17/2020 03/02/2020 03/16/2020 03/30/2020
Person
1941-1943=10
Epidemic Curve (Italy) Epidemic Curve (China) S&P 500
Source: CEIC Data, WHO, Standard & Poor’s

12. Economic Impact: Stock Market (SARS-2003)
8,000
8,500
9,000
9,500
10,000
10,500
11,000
11,500
12,000
12,500
13,000
Hang Seng Index (Hong Kong, SAR)
SARS HKEX: Index: Hang Seng
750
800
850
900
950
1,000
1,050
1,100
1,150
1,200
S&P 500
SARS Standard & Poors: Index: S&P 500
Source: CEIC Data, Stock Exchanges

13. S&P 500 Sub-Indices
2/18 2/19 2/20 2/21 2/24 2/25 2/26 2/27 2/28 3/2 3/3 3/4 3/5 3/6 3/9 3/10 3/11 3/12 3/13 3/16 3/17 3/18 3/19 3/20 3/23 3/24 3/25 3/26 3/27 3/30 3/31 4/1 4/2 4/3 4/6
HealthCare
ConsumerStaples
Utilities
ConsumerDiscretionary
CommunicationServices
Financials
Energy
IndustrialsSector
InformationTechnology
Materials
Source: CEIC Data, Standard & Poor’s

14. Economic Impact: US Treasury Bond Yields
0
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
50,000
60,000
70,000
80,000
90,000
0.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1.0
1.2
1.4
1.6
1.8
2.0
02/01/2020 02/08/2020 02/15/2020 02/22/2020 02/29/2020 03/07/2020 03/14/2020 03/21/2020 03/28/2020 04/04/2020
Person
%pa
Global Epidemic Curve 10-Year 1-Year 3-Month
Source: CEIC Data, Federal Reserve Board

15. Economic Impact: US Initial Jobless Claims
Source: CEIC Data, US Department of Labor
655
6,648
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
7,000 03/02/07
03/05/07
03/08/07
03/11/07
03/02/08
03/05/08
03/08/08
03/11/08
03/02/09
03/05/09
03/08/09
03/11/09
03/02/10
03/05/10
03/08/10
03/11/10
03/02/11
03/05/11
03/08/11
03/11/11
03/02/12
03/05/12
03/08/12
03/11/12
03/02/13
03/05/13
03/08/13
03/11/13
03/02/14
03/05/14
03/08/14
03/11/14
03/02/15
03/05/15
03/08/15
03/11/15
03/02/16
03/05/16
03/08/16
03/11/16
03/02/17
03/05/17
03/08/17
03/11/17
03/02/18
03/05/18
03/08/18
03/11/18
03/02/19
03/05/19
03/08/19
03/11/19
03/02/20
Personthou

16. Economic Impact: Emerging Markets
0
20,000
40,000
60,000
80,000
100,000
60,391
70,391
80,391
90,391
100,391
110,391
120,391
01/02/2020 01/23/2020 02/13/2020 03/05/2020 03/26/2020
Person
02Jan1968=100
Brazil
Global Epidemic Curve B3 S.A.: Index: BOVESPA
0.00
20000.00
40000.00
60000.00
80000.00
100000.00
24,682
29,682
34,682
39,682
01/01/2020 02/01/2020 03/01/2020 04/01/2020
Person
1978-1979=100
India
Global Epidemic Curve Bombay Stock Exchange: Index: SENSEX
0
20,000
40,000
60,000
80,000
100,000
36,064
41,064
46,064
51,064
56,064
61,064
01/02/2020 01/23/2020 02/13/2020 03/05/2020 03/26/2020
Person
02Jan2002=100
South Africa
Global Epidemic Curve FTSE/JSE: Index: All Share
0
20,000
40,000
60,000
80,000
100,000
80033
90033
100033
110033
120033
01/02/2020 01/23/2020 02/13/2020 03/05/2020 03/26/2020
Person
Jan1986=1
Turkey
Global Epidemic Curve BIST: National Price Index (NPI): 100
Source: CEIC Data, Stock Exchanges

17. Emerging Market Currencies: Asia
27 Feb
17 Mar
27 Mar
70
71
72
73
74
75
76
77
09/08/19
09/22/19
10/06/19
10/20/19
11/03/19
11/17/19
12/01/19
12/15/19
12/29/19
01/12/20
01/26/20
02/09/20
02/23/20
03/08/20
03/22/20
04/05/20
USD/INR
India
21 Jan
10 Mar
27 Mar
30
31
31
32
32
33
33
34
09/09/19
09/23/19
10/07/19
10/21/19
11/04/19
11/18/19
12/02/19
12/16/19
12/30/19
01/13/20
01/27/20
02/10/20
02/24/20
03/09/20
03/23/20
04/06/20
USD/THB
Thailand
24 Feb
04 Mar
27 Mar
13366
13866
14366
14866
15366
15866
16366
16866
17366
09/08/19
09/22/19
10/06/19
10/20/19
11/03/19
11/17/19
12/01/19
12/15/19
12/29/19
01/12/20
01/26/20
02/09/20
02/23/20
03/08/20
03/22/20
04/05/20
USD/IDR
Indonesia
29 Jan
05 Mar
27 Mar
4.00
4.05
4.10
4.15
4.20
4.25
4.30
4.35
4.40
4.45
4.50
09/08/19
09/22/19
10/06/19
10/20/19
11/03/19
11/17/19
12/01/19
12/15/19
12/29/19
01/12/20
01/26/20
02/09/20
02/23/20
03/08/20
03/22/20
04/05/20
MYR/USD
Malaysia
Source: CEIC Data, Central Banks

18. Emerging Market Currencies: Latin America
22 Jan
05 Mar
27 Mar
4.00
4.05
4.10
4.15
4.20
4.25
4.30
4.35
4.40
4.45
4.50
09/08/19
09/22/19
10/06/19
10/20/19
11/03/19
11/17/19
12/01/19
12/15/19
12/29/19
01/12/20
01/26/20
02/09/20
02/23/20
03/08/20
03/22/20
04/05/20
USD/BRL
Brazil
22 Jan
58.00
59.00
60.00
61.00
62.00
63.00
64.00
65.00
66.00
10/22/19
10/29/19
11/05/19
11/12/19
11/19/19
11/26/19
12/03/19
12/10/19
12/17/19
12/24/19
12/31/19
01/07/20
01/14/20
01/21/20
01/28/20
02/04/20
02/11/20
02/18/20
02/25/20
03/03/20
03/10/20
03/17/20
03/24/20
03/31/20
USD/ARS
Argentina
06 Feb
27 Mar
700.00
750.00
800.00
850.00
900.00
09/08/19
09/22/19
10/06/19
10/20/19
11/03/19
11/17/19
12/01/19
12/15/19
12/29/19
01/12/20
01/26/20
02/09/20
02/23/20
03/08/20
03/22/20
04/05/20
USD/CLP
Chile
04 Mar
3,150
3,350
3,550
3,750
3,950
4,150
4,350
09/07/19
09/21/19
10/05/19
10/19/19
11/02/19
11/16/19
11/30/19
12/14/19
12/28/19
01/11/20
01/25/20
02/08/20
02/22/20
03/07/20
03/21/20
04/04/20
USD/COP
Colombia
Source: CEIC Data, Central Banks

19. High Frequency Data to Monitor Economic Impact of Covid-19 on China
 Real Economy
1) Transportation
2) Industrial Activity
3) Prices
 Financial Market
1) Financial Condition
2) Stock Market

20. Real Economy: Transportation
Source: CEIC, WHO, Ministry of Transport
03/02/2020, -87
10/02/2020, -85
11/03/2020, -66
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
-100
-90
-80
-70
-60
-50
-40
-30
-20
-10
0
01/20/2020
01/22/2020
01/24/2020
01/26/2020
01/28/2020
01/30/2020
02/01/2020
02/03/2020
02/05/2020
02/07/2020
02/09/2020
02/11/2020
02/13/2020
02/15/2020
02/17/2020
02/19/2020
02/21/2020
02/23/2020
02/25/2020
02/27/2020
02/29/2020
03/02/2020
03/04/2020
03/06/2020
03/08/2020
03/10/2020
03/12/2020
03/14/2020
03/16/2020
03/18/2020
03/20/2020
person
%y/ychange
Passenger Traffic
China Epidemic Curve (Right Axis) Passenger Traffic
Most of Provinces ( except Hubei and
Beijing) started to resume work
Hubei excluding Wuhan started to
resume work
.

21. Real Economy: Industrial Activity
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
1,500
1,550
1,600
1,650
1,700
1,750
1,800
1,850
1,900
1,950
2,000
2,050
12/01/2019
12/08/2019
12/15/2019
12/22/2019
12/29/2019
01/05/2020
01/12/2020
01/19/2020
01/26/2020
02/02/2020
02/09/2020
02/16/2020
02/23/2020
03/01/2020
03/08/2020
03/15/2020
03/22/2020
03/29/2020
thoutonnes
China Steel Production
China Epidemic Curve (Right Axis) Crude Steel: Large & Medium Enterprise Steel Product: Large & Medium Enterprise
person
Source: CEIC, WHO, China Iron and Steel Association

22. Real Economy: Prices
Source: CEIC, WHO, National Development and Reform Commission
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
5000
5500
6000
6500
7000
7500
8000
8500
12/31/2019
01/02/2020
01/04/2020
01/06/2020
01/08/2020
01/10/2020
01/12/2020
01/14/2020
01/16/2020
01/18/2020
01/20/2020
01/22/2020
01/24/2020
01/26/2020
01/28/2020
01/30/2020
02/01/2020
02/03/2020
02/05/2020
02/07/2020
02/09/2020
02/11/2020
02/13/2020
02/15/2020
02/17/2020
02/19/2020
02/21/2020
02/23/2020
02/25/2020
02/27/2020
02/29/2020
03/02/2020
03/04/2020
03/06/2020
03/08/2020
03/10/2020
03/12/2020
03/14/2020
03/16/2020
03/18/2020
03/20/2020
03/22/2020
03/24/2020
03/26/2020
03/28/2020
03/30/2020
04/01/2020
04/03/2020
person
RMB/t
China Oil Price
China Epidemic Curve( Right Axis) Supply Price: Gasoline, Standard Supply Price: Diesel, Standard

23. Real Economy: Prices
Source: CEIC, WHO, Caixin Insight and Gresham Investment Management LLC
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
155
160
165
170
175
180
185
190
195
200
12/23/2019
12/25/2019
12/27/2019
12/29/2019
12/31/2019
01/02/2020
01/04/2020
01/06/2020
01/08/2020
01/10/2020
01/12/2020
01/14/2020
01/16/2020
01/18/2020
01/20/2020
01/22/2020
01/24/2020
01/26/2020
01/28/2020
01/30/2020
02/01/2020
02/03/2020
02/05/2020
02/07/2020
02/09/2020
02/11/2020
02/13/2020
02/15/2020
02/17/2020
02/19/2020
02/21/2020
02/23/2020
02/25/2020
02/27/2020
02/29/2020
03/02/2020
03/04/2020
03/06/2020
03/08/2020
03/10/2020
03/12/2020
03/14/2020
03/16/2020
03/18/2020
03/20/2020
03/22/2020
03/24/2020
03/26/2020
03/28/2020
03/30/2020
04/01/2020
04/03/2020
person
09Jan2009=100
China Commodity Index
China Epidemic Curve(Right Axis) China Commodity Index

24. Real Economy: Prices
Source: CEIC, WHO, Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs, Price Monitoring Center, NDRC
23/01/2020, 15%
20/02/2020, 22%
30/03/2020, 8%
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
12/25/2019
01/01/2020
01/08/2020
01/15/2020
01/22/2020
01/29/2020
02/05/2020
02/12/2020
02/19/2020
02/26/2020
03/04/2020
03/11/2020
03/18/2020
03/25/2020
04/01/2020
Person
y/y,change
Agriculture Product Price Growth Rates, seasonal adjusted
China Epidemic Curve (Right Axis) Overall Food Basket
31/12/2019, 94%
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
90%
95%
100%
105%
110%
115%
120%
125%
130%
12/25/2019
01/01/2020
01/08/2020
01/15/2020
01/22/2020
01/29/2020
02/05/2020
02/12/2020
02/19/2020
02/26/2020
03/04/2020
03/11/2020
03/18/2020
03/25/2020
04/01/2020
Person
y/y,change
Pork Price Growth Rate, seasonal adjusted
China Epidemic Curve (Right Axis) Pork

25. Financial Market : Financial Condition
Source: CEIC, WHO, Yicai Research Institute, People’s Bank of China
03/02/2020, -1.10
17/02/2020, -1.27
12/03/2020, -1.64
16/03/2020, -1.52
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
-1.80
-1.60
-1.40
-1.20
-1.00
-0.80
-0.60
-0.40
-0.20
0.00
01/23/2020
01/30/2020
02/06/2020
02/13/2020
02/20/2020
02/27/2020
03/05/2020
03/12/2020
03/19/2020
03/26/2020
04/02/2020
person
average=0
China Financial Condition Index
China Epidemic Curve (Right Axis) China Financial Condition Index
Date Monetary Policy Estimated Impacts
2/3/2020 Reverse Repo Rate Cut 30 bp
2/3/2020-2/10/2020 Inject Net Liquidity up to RMB 1.6 tn
3/16/2020
Targeted Cut on Reserve
Requirement Ratio(RRR)
50 bp- 100 bp to release
long term liquidity of RMB
550 bn
2/17/2020 Loan Prime Rates Cut on 1 year Loan 10 bp
2/17/2020
Loan Prime Rates Cut on 5 years
loan
5 bp
4/3/2020
Second Round of Targeted Cut on
RRR
100 bp to release long
term liquidity of RMB 400
bn
4/3/2020
Excess Reserve Requirement Rate
Cut
37 bp

26. Financial Market : Stock Market
03/02/2020
Source: CEIC, Shanghai Stock Exchange, PBC
23/01/2020, 4,004
03/02/2020, 3,688
21/02/2020, 4,149
11/03/2020, 4,028
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
3,400
3,500
3,600
3,700
3,800
3,900
4,000
4,100
4,200
4,300
01/01/2020
01/08/2020
01/15/2020
01/22/2020
01/29/2020
02/05/2020
02/12/2020
02/19/2020
02/26/2020
03/04/2020
03/11/2020
03/18/2020
03/25/2020
04/01/2020
person
31Dec2004=1000
China's Stock Market and China Epidemic Curve
China Epidemic Curve (Right Axis) Shanghai Shenzhen 300 Index
23/03/2020, 3,530
0
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
50,000
60,000
70,000
80,000
90,000
3,400
3,500
3,600
3,700
3,800
3,900
4,000
4,100
4,200
4,300
01/01/2020
01/08/2020
01/15/2020
01/22/2020
01/29/2020
02/05/2020
02/12/2020
02/19/2020
02/26/2020
03/04/2020
03/11/2020
03/18/2020
03/25/2020
04/01/2020
person
31Dec2004=1000
China's Stock Market and Pandemic Curve
Pandemic Curve(Right Axis) Shanghai Shenzhen 300 Index

27. Q&A