The ability to create deepfakes has evolved rapidly, which brings both opportunities and threats. Here we look at the good, the bad, and the ugly of deepfakes in today's and tomorrow's world.

1. DEEPFAKES – THE GOOD, THE BAD,
AND THE UGLY

2. © 2021 Bernard Marr, Bernard Marr & Co. All rights reserved
DEEPFAKES – THE GOOD, THE BAD, AND THE UGLY
The ability to create deepfakes has evolved rapidly, which brings both
opportunities and threats. Here we look at the good, the bad, and the ugly
of deepfakes in today's and tomorrow's world.

3. © 2021 Bernard Marr, Bernard Marr & Co. All rights reserved
Over the holidays, millions of us saw The Beatles miraculously restored to living color in the Disney+
documentary Get Back. But how many of them realized that the technology used to bring John, Paul,
George, and Ringo to our screens is also being used for much more sinister purposes?
The algorithms used to create “deepfakes” – as artificial intelligence (AI)-generated imitations are
known – are widely considered by cyber security experts to be a major challenge society will face in
coming years.
Websites already exist that can create pornographic images of real people from any regular images of
videos – clearly an invasion of privacy that has the potential to cause huge embarrassment. And in the
political sphere, we have seen (and heard) fakers put words into the mouth of Barack Obama. While this
was done for educational purposes – and other famous examples like TikTok Tom Cruise are clearly
made for entertainment – there’s certainly a potential for misuse.

4. © 2021 Bernard Marr, Bernard Marr & Co. All rights reserved
At the same time, the technology also has the potential to create value. And, much like Pandora’s
box of Greek mythology, now that it’s been opened, it can’t be closed again – over 80 open
source deepfake applications exist on Github. As I discussed during a recent conversation with
Experian’s Eric Haller, I’ve even used it myself via a service called Overdub created by Descript
that lets me put words in the moth of my own virtual avatar.
Haller – who, among other roles, heads up Experian's identity services – told me that in many
ways, the creation of deepfakes can be thought of as the latest development in the ever-ongoing
war between business and counterfeiting.
“You can think back to old spy movies – and spies trying to figure out if the video they are
watching is real or not – all those things still happen today – it’s not a new notion,” he told me.

5. © 2021 Bernard Marr, Bernard Marr & Co. All rights reserved
What is real, however, is that – unlike the Beatles documentary, where AI was just used to touch
up and restore missing detail, like color – today’s fraud investigators may need to investigate
material that is 100% created by computers.
With technology where it is today, there’s a fairly limited chance that deepfake technology would
be successful enough to fool someone who knew the subject of the fake. For example, my own
AI-voiced avatar might do a good enough job of putting words in my mouth for the purposes of
creating a virtual presentation or webinar. However, someone who knows me well might be able
to pick up small differences in intonation and delivery that give away the fact the content is
computer-generated.

6. © 2021 Bernard Marr, Bernard Marr & Co. All rights reserved
Haller points out that even the Tom Cruise deepfakes – perhaps the most widely shared viral
examples of the phenomena – involved the work of a skilled actor or impersonator, able to
mimic Cruise’s mannerisms to an impressive extent. The AI – using algorithms known as
generative adversarial networks (GANs) – then simply “blurs” the audio and visual data to align it
even more closely with the Hollywood star. Even after all of this, I would say the result is a piece
of work that is very nearly good enough, though not quite good enough, to fool most people.
Indeed, anecdotally, I would say the most common reaction on viewing the footage is "that's a
very convincing fake," rather than "That's Tom Cruise!"
The danger, of course, comes from the fact that we are clearly only getting started in terms of
what is achievable with AI. In five or ten years' time, it’s highly plausible that technology like this
will create fakes that are indistinguishable from reality.

7. © 2021 Bernard Marr, Bernard Marr & Co. All rights reserved
There have already been instances of criminals creating faked voices in order to fool banking
systems and transfer money between accounts – in one case, to the tune of $35 million. Creating
technological defenses against these attacks is one of the responsibilities of Haller and others in
his role.
“It could be someone who’s completely fictitious,” he tells me – “It’s probably a lower bar to
create someone who does not exist than to simulate someone that does exist and have an
interactive dialogue with them.
“My greatest fear … is the interaction that actually fools somebody that knows the individual they
are interacting with – I think we’re a long way from there … that requires a confluence of
technologies that all need to develop further from where they are right now. But the lower bar.
That’s very credible today.”

8. © 2021 Bernard Marr, Bernard Marr & Co. All rights reserved
As with other forms of AI-driven fraud detection employed by financial services organizations,
those developing the technology have found it more fruitful to focus on examining incidental
and circumstantial details of the interaction rather than the interaction itself. So, rather than
attempting to determine whether a voice on the phone is computer-generated, an investigation
may center on how the communication is being made, where it is coming from, what time it is
taking place, and whether the parties involved are at risk of being targets of fraud. In this
respect, the technology can be thought of as similar to that used by mobile carriers to flag up
potential spam phone calls or phishing texts when they arrive at customers’ phones.
The dangers only become more apparent when we consider the fast pace at which we are
moving our lives online and the impending arrival of even deeper integration between our lives
and the digital universe heralded by concepts such as the metaverse.

9. © 2021 Bernard Marr, Bernard Marr & Co. All rights reserved
“I’ve heard colleagues saying we’ve probably seen a 10-year acceleration into digital in the
last 18 months because of the pandemic – my 95-year-old father-in-law orders his
groceries online now, a year and a half ago that would never have happened”, Haller says.
With more interactions taking place via Zoom call – from business meetings to
consultations with doctors – the scope for impersonation will clearly only grow, which is
why the work of identity professionals like Haller will be increasingly important to society.

10. © 2021 Bernard Marr, Bernard Marr & Co. All rights reserved
At the same time, we shouldn’t overlook the positive benefits that this technology will enable.
Beyond bringing beloved movie stars back from the grave, or allowing us to enjoy older stars as
they were in their younger days, creative (or generative) AI has the potential to cut down on the
amount of boring and repetitive work humans have to do. It’s also very useful for creating
“synthetic data," allowing us to train AI and robots to become more accurate using data that may
otherwise be difficult or dangerous to come by. This could include training autonomous driving
algorithms without the risk involved with real road journeys or conducting medical trials without
putting patients or animals in danger.
The potential for AI to simulate (or fake) elements of the real world is clearly one of the most
powerful aspects of the transformative impact it can have on society. Ensuring this potential is
realized in a safe way, without causing harm, is an important task for those who are developing
and deploying this technology.

11. © 2021 Bernard Marr , Bernard Marr & Co. All rights reserved
Bernard Marr is an internationally best-selling author, popular keynote speaker,
futurist, and a strategic business & technology advisor to governments and
companies. He helps organisations improve their business performance, use data
more intelligently, and understand the implications of new technologies such as
artificial intelligence, big data, blockchains, and the Internet of Things.
LinkedIn has ranked Bernard as one of the world’s top 5 business influencers. He is
a frequent contributor to the World Economic Forum and writes a regular column for
Forbes. Every day Bernard actively engages his 1.5 million social media followers
and shares content that reaches millions of readers.

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