5. Global Financial Crisis (2) Current Account Balance (per cent to GDP) Country 1990-94 1995-99 2000-04 2005 2006 2007 2008 China 1.4 1.9 2.4 7.2 9.5 11.0 10.0 India -1.3 -1.3 0.5 -1.3 -1.1 -1.0 -2.8 Russia 0.9 3.5 11.2 11.0 9.5 5.9 6.1 Saudi Arabia -11.7 -2.4 10.6 28.7 27.9 25.1 28.9 United Arab Emirates 8.3 4.6 9.9 18.0 22.6 16.1 15.8 United States -1.0 -2.1 -4.5 -5.9 -6.0 -5.3 -4.7 Memo: Euro area n.a. 0.9 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.2 -0.7 Middle East -5.1 1.0 8.4 19.7 21.0 18.2 18.8 Source: World Economic Outlook Database, April 2009, International Monetary Fund. Note: (-) indicates deficit.
6.
7.
8.
9.
10. Global Financial Crisis (7) Worsening Global Economic Outlook Growth Forecast of IMF (per cent) Region April 2008 July 2008 October 2008 April 2009 Â 2008 2009 2008 2009 2008 2009 2008 2009 Advanced countries 1.3 1.3 1.7 1.4 1.5 0.5 0.9 (-)3.8 EMEs 6.7 6.6 6.9 6.7 6.9 6.1 6.1 1.6 World 3.7 3.8 4.1 3.9 3.9 3.0 3.2 (-)1.3 Global Trade Volume (Goods and Services) World 3.7 3.8 4.1 3.9 3.9 3.0 3.3 -11.0
11.
12. Impact on India (1) Trends in Capital Flows Component Period 2007-08 Â 2008-09 Foreign Direct Investment to India April-February 27.6 31.7 FIIs (net) April-March 20.3 -15.0 External Commercial Borrowings (net) April- December 17.5 6.0 Short-term Trade Credits (net) April- December 10.7 0.5 Total capital flows (net) April- December 82.0 15.3 Memo : Current Account Balance April- December -15.5 -36.5 Valuation Gains (+)/Losses (-) on Foreign Exchange Reserves April- December 9.0 -33.4 Foreign Exchange Reserves (variation) April-December 76.1 -53.8 April-March 110.5 Â -57.7
13. Impact on India (2) Key Macro Indicators Indicator Period 2007-08 2008-09 Growth, per cent Real GDP Growth April-December 9.0 6.9 Industrial production April-February 8.8 2.8 Services April-December 10.5 9.7 Exports April-March 28.4 6.4 Imports April-March 40.2 17.9 GFD/GDP April-March 2.7 6.0 Stock Market (BSE Sensex) April-March 16,569 12,366 Rs.per US$ April-March 40.24 45.92
14.
15.
16.
17.
18.
19.
20.
21.
22.
23.
24.
25. Measures since Mid-September, 2008 (5) Impact of Measures (2) Item March 2008 September 2008 October 2008 March 2009 Turnover (Rupees crore, average daily) 1 Call market 11,182 11,690 14,497 11,909 2 All money markets @ 63,395 42,891 40,906 81,821 Key Interest Rates (per cent) 3 Call market 7.37 10.52 9.90 4.17 4 All money markets @ 6.55 9.26 8.66 3.76 5 BSE Sensex 15946 13943 10550 8995 6 Rs. Per US $ 40.36 45.56 48.64 51.23 7 10-year G-sec yield 7.69 8.45 7.85 6.56 8 Certificate of Deposits 10.0 11.6 10.0 7.0 9 Commercial Paper 10.4 12.3 14.7 8.9 10 Deposit rate (1-3 yrs)# 8.25-9.25 8.75-10.25 8.75-10.25 8.00-9.25 11 BPLR# 12.25-13.50 13.75-14.75 13.75-14.75 11.50-14.00 @: Call money, CBLO and market repo; #: Data pertain to PSBs.
26. Measures since Mid-September, 2008 (6) Total Resource Flow from Banks and Non-banks Rupees crore Item 2007-08 2008-09 1 Non-food Bank credit 4,44,807 4,14,902 2 Non-banks 3,35,698 2,64,138 3 Total flow of resources (1+2) 7,80,505 6,79,040
27. Measures since Mid-September, 2008 (7) Inflation in India (per cent) Item March 2008 June 2008 September 2008 December 2008 March 2009 Wholesale price inflation All commodities 7.8 12.0 12.1 5.9 0.3 Of which: Primary articles 9.7 11.0 12.0 11.6 3.5 Fuel 6.8 16.3 16.5 -0.7 -6.1 Manufactured products 7.3 10.9 10.5 6.2 1.4 Consumer price inflation Agricultural labourers 7.9 8.8 11.0 11.4 10.8 (Feb) Rural labourers 7.6 8.7 11.0 11.4 10.8 (Feb) Urban non-manual employees 6.0 7.3 9.5 9.8 9.9 (Feb) Industrial workers 7.9 7.7 9.8 9.7 9.6 (Feb)