Vivek Tulpule Analyst Roundtable April 2010


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Vivek Tulpule Analyst roundtable, London, April 2010

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  • In the OECD Industrial production recovered sharply in 4Q09. The Latest PMI indices indicate output is still strong in the new year. But the issue is whether the recovery reflects and improvement in underlyiing demand, or the eventually end of the prolonged stocking cycle that characterised last year, and the return of some re-stocking. Initial data warns that it could be the latter. In the US car sales fell m/m in January and Home sales also crashed. The Unemployment figure also suffered a major transition upwards.
  • Some figures are only available as combined Jan & Feb data in the column named as Jan-Feb 2009 , other figures are available as monthly data in this column are written in a separate way.
  • Exit might be gradual Loan growth moderated FAI holds up at high level
  • Ample liquidity still in place To be supportive for growth At same time, inflation pressure is piling up M1 growth outpacing M2 growth
  • Vivek Tulpule Analyst Roundtable April 2010

    1. 1. Vivek Tulpule Chief economist April 2010
    2. 2. Cautionary statement <ul><li>This presentation has been prepared by Rio Tinto plc and Rio Tinto Limited (“Rio Tinto”) and consisting of the slides for a presentation concerning Rio Tinto. By reviewing/attending this presentation you agree to be bound by the following conditions. </li></ul><ul><li>Forward-looking statements </li></ul><ul><li>This presentation includes forward-looking statements. All statements other than statements of historical facts included in this presentation, including, without limitation, those regarding Rio Tinto’s financial position, business strategy, plans and objectives of management for future operations (including development plans and objectives relating to Rio Tinto’s products, production forecasts and reserve and resource positions), are forward-looking statements. Such forward-looking statements involve known and unknown risks, uncertainties and other factors which may cause the actual results, performance or achievements of Rio Tinto, or industry results, to be materially different from any future results, performance or achievements expressed or implied by such forward-looking statements. </li></ul><ul><li>Such forward-looking statements are based on numerous assumptions regarding Rio Tinto’s present and future business strategies and the environment in which Rio Tinto will operate in the future. Among the important factors that could cause Rio Tinto’s actual results, performance or achievements to differ materially from those in the forward-looking statements include, among others, levels of actual production during any period, levels of demand and market prices, the ability to produce and transport products profitably, the impact of foreign currency exchange rates on market prices and operating costs, operational problems, political uncertainty and economic conditions in relevant areas of the world, the actions of competitors, activities by governmental authorities such as changes in taxation or regulation and such other risk factors identified in Rio Tinto's most recent Annual Report on Form 20-F filed with the United States Securities and Exchange Commission (the &quot;SEC&quot;) or Form 6-Ks furnished to the SEC. Forward-looking statements should, therefore, be construed in light of such risk factors and undue reliance should not be placed on forward-looking statements. These forward-looking statements speak only as of the date of this presentation. </li></ul><ul><li>Nothing in this presentation should be interpreted to mean that future earnings per share of Rio Tinto plc or Rio Tinto Limited will necessarily match or exceed its historical published earnings per share. </li></ul>1 March 2010
    3. 3. Spot price indices (1 January 2005 = 100) Market size changes in 2009 (%chg y-o-y) Chinese demand key to H2 2009 price recovery Ex-China global China
    4. 4. Global economy <ul><li>Consensus projects global growth to accelerate from -0.9 per cent in 2009 to near 4 per cent increase in 2010. </li></ul><ul><li>OECD recovery driven by inventory rebuilding, stimulus and in some cases net trade. </li></ul><ul><li>Stronger growth in developing economies led by China. Impetus from public infrastructure spending and loans growth. </li></ul><ul><li>Potential global upside if the path out of recession follows past recoveries. </li></ul><ul><li>But jury still out on whether a sustainable recovery in private sector confidence and activity will emerge as fiscal and monetary stimuli wane or are removed over time. </li></ul>Real GDP Growth Consumer Prices 2010 2011 2010 2011 China 9.9 9.1 3.2 3.3 India 8.2 7.9 8.0 5.9 Russia* 2.6 3.7 6.7 7.2 Indonesia 5.7 6.1 5.1 5.9 Australia 3.1 3.4 2.5 2.7 Brazil 5.5 4.4 4.8 4.7 South Korea 4.9 4.3 3.0 3.0 5.0 4.5 1.2 1.7 Saudi Arabia 3.9 4.6 4.9 4.9 Germany 1.7 1.6 0.8 1.3 France 1.4 1.6 1.2 1.5 UK 1.4 2.3 2.6 1.7 US 3.1 3.0 2.2 1.9 Canada 2.9 3.2 1.8 2.2 Japan 1.9 1.6 -1.1 -0.3 Source: Consensus forecasts (March 2010), *Global Insight (March 2010)
    5. 5. Stronger macro forecasts, but from very low base IP Indices (Q1 2008 = 100) Consensus IP Growth Forecast (y-o-y %chg) Metal-weighted world IP World OECD 2008 2009 2010 2011 Non-OECD world OECD 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
    6. 6. Source: National bureau statistics of China Overview of Chinese economy   2008 2009 Dec-09 Jan-10 Feb-10 GDP % 9.6 8.7 /   / / Industrial value added (IVA) % 12.9 11 18.5 20.7 (Jan&Feb) Urban FAI % -YTD 26.1 30.5 30.5 26.6 (Jan&Feb) M2 % 17.8 27.7 / 26.0 25.5 Exports % 17.2 -16 17.7 21.1 45.7 Imports % 18.5 -11.2 55.9 85.5 44.7 FDI (USD Bn) 92.4 90 90 8.1 14.0 CPI % 5.9 -0.7 1.9 1.5 2.7 Total retail sales % 19 .0 15.5 17.5 13.7 22.1 Total retail sales (Real) % 17.4 16.9 / 11.7 19.1 FX reserves (USD trn) 1.946 / 2.39 / /
    7. 7. China near term outlook: Key drivers and dynamics <ul><li>The slow down and recovery in OECD economies and global demand for Chinese goods. </li></ul><ul><li>The China’s fiscal stimulus and its unwinding. </li></ul><ul><li>The China’s monetary stimulus and its unwinding. </li></ul><ul><li>Direction of State Owned Enterprises (SOE) investment. </li></ul><ul><li>Exchange rate fluctuations (driven in turn by official policy and the change in the US dollar against other countries). </li></ul><ul><li>The endogenous response of the economy to these changes (propagation of the shocks) such as contributions to growth from inventories, and from stock adjustment in business investment and dwelling investment. </li></ul>
    8. 8. Source: National bureau statistics of China, PBoC Policy continuity and gradual exit
    9. 9. Abundant liquidity still in place Source: National bureau statistics of China
    10. 10. Housing demand jumps but supply lags Sourc e: National Bureau of Statistics of China, CEIC
    11. 11. Chinese steel production and consumption
    12. 12. The steepness of the cost curve affects price volatility 6 Apr 2010
    13. 13. A very significant flow of funds into commodities 0 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 -10 -20 Inflows into Commodities $bn ETPs + MTNs Index Swaps Base ($6.9bn) Softs ($14.5bn) Precious ($20.1bn) Energy ($27.6bn) 500 7,500 14,500 21,500 28,500 Inflows into different commodity sectors, by different modes of investment 2009 ETP Index MTN Source: BarCap Source: BarCap 2001 2000 2002 2004 2003 2005 2007 2006 2008 2009
    14. 14. Metals demand expected to double over the next fifteen to twenty years Global consumption of leading Rio Tinto commodities Indexed, 2000=100 Note: cf trend of 3-6 percent growth per annum for most other metals. Aluminium Iron Ore Copper <ul><ul><li>Growth in non-OECD markets will support higher prices over the longer term </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>China is key </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>But India is set to follow </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>15 years behind China </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>Less commodity intensive </li></ul></ul></ul>1 March 2010 Brook Hunt Estimates CRU Estimates
    15. 15. China’s urban-rural income gap widens Source: National bureau statistics of China
    16. 16. China’s “semi” urbanization