Buyographics: Demographic trends impacting Housing Trends
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The document discusses demographic trends in the United States, focusing on baby boomers and millennials. It notes that America is aging as more baby boomers reach retirement age, while millennials are delaying traditional life milestones like marriage and home ownership. The document also presents statistics on generations, examines lifestyle and economic differences between boomers and millennials, and suggests these demographic shifts should influence how companies market and advertise to different age groups.
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Buyographics: Demographic trends impacting Housing Trends
- 5. America is an aging nation Many Boomers have $ Sell to customers with $
- 14. Location: Teton County, Mt. Generation: Boomer Race/Ethnicity: White, non-Hispanic Household: Married, 3 kids Location: Los Angeles County Generation: Boomer Race/Ethnicity: White, Hispanic Household: Married, 2 kids Location: New York County Generation: Millennial Race/Ethnicity: Black Household: Boyfriend + roommate
- 16. Boomer White Man College-Educated Non-Hispanic Urban Home-owner unmarried Father White-collar Full-time worker middle-class Drives to work Location: Las Vegas County Generation: Boomer Race/Ethnicity: White, non-Hispanic Household: Single (weekend custody) Divorced Part-time custody Single-person household Underwater-mortgage
- 17. Profound changes in just 40 years.
- 19. TREND
- 20. Mobile tech Married later Woman Living at home Helicopter parents Urban Renter Driving less twenty-something Bi-racial couple Full-time worker middle-class Entitled “The Monocle Returns” “In a New Trend in Hair Removal, Women Prefer the Natural Look” “Baby Boomers Are Drawn to Green and Eco-Friendly Funerals” We have reached Peak___ Auto/Beard/Oil _______ is the future “Online Merchants Home In on Imbibing Consumers” “It’s Hip to Be Round – Potbellies are in”
- 29. What’s Next?
- 31. #amiright?!?
- 33. #letsdance
- 41. The middle class today The freedom to make some choices without the pressure to make others.
- 42. 10,000 turning 65 each day • More active • Likely to retire in place due to economy, lifestyle • Some wish to be less car- dependent • Working longer, retiring later • Some have prepared, but not all • Increased demand for healthcare services Baby Boomers
- 43. 12,000 turning 30 each day Trend Report Millennials Urban Driving less Pressed economically Delayed life stages including marriage, kids, etc. ‘Delayed’ is key word there. How will needs change in next 10 years?
- 44. Dumpsters: The new sign of prosperity
- 45. Millennials are buying fewer homes than previous generations
- 46. Home ownership rates have dropped
- 47. Home ownership changes: largely demographic
- 49. Delayed household formation: The student loan equation
- 50. Credit is harder to get. So who’s buying?
- 55. Biggest changes since 2000
- 56. Biggest changes since the recession
- 61. Advertising used to be easy
- 62. Agency execs worked hard
- 67. Sometimes it is Just Re-Packaging
- 68. …or Just the Right Message
- 69. Location: Champaign, IL Generation: Millennial Race/Ethnicity: White, non-Hispanic Household: Unmarried partner
Editor's Notes
- I hope you enjoyed your meat and potatoes. Because now we’re going to have desert. I love being able to come to places like this and talk demographics.
- I used to have a really borning job takign pictures of rock stars and famous people.
- I thought I was learning about f-stops and f-sharps, about tempo and shutter speed. But turns out I was learning about demographics and marketing.
- Also: talk aobut controlling the media message and letting people do their jobs
- That other guy I photographed taught me something, too. We are also a changing nation. Set your product to appeal to growing demographics If your marketshare in a demographic isn’t as large, or growing as fast as the demographic itself, you have problems and potential for growth Use marketing to activate your audience. So on one hand, even as a photographer I was learning about demographics. But really, I though demographics were like this.
- David taught me the importance of packaging in marketing. Sometimes you just have to alter your look or your message, and even if the product isn’t ch-ch-changing you can reach new audiences. I actually tried to get him named as one of Ad Age’s marketers of the year once but his people weren’t interested in the honor.
- But I was still scratching the surface. I used to think demographics were kind of boring. I know, right? How could anyone think that. But maybe its’ because my demogrpahics were boring. While I was an interesting guy in a lot of ways, demographically speaking I was average and typical. I am a white middle class midwestern male. I grew up in the burbs of a major americna city with one . At least I’m left handed. Being that normal, why would I get into demographics? I was a pretty average american. Or so I thought. https://training.measureevaluation.org/non-certficate-courses/pap/lesson-8
- Then I read this book called the average american. He used a ton of measures traveled the country in search of the average american and without revealing too much. He found someone who matched his profile. It was kind of a cool book. I was working for Crain’s at the time. I tried to do the same thing in Chicago, sort of. Not an average person, but an average census tract. And I couldn’t. Know why? Segregation. Racial and economic. There is no typical. I realized that the tracts in Chicago were either 85% black, or less than 10. There was no middle ground.
- I produced a bunch of maps kind of like this one. (but not this one). I was off to the demographic races. Or maybe the demographic ethnicities. Ha. Demographer humor. It’s the best. Source: http://www.radicalcartography.net/index.html?chicagodots
- A couple of years later, I was now working at Ad Age. I underwent a massive shift in my demographics. And now, with the new job I was thinking about how this impacted my consumer behavior. The answer: profoundly. I was thinking about demogrpahics and the impact on consumer trends. It’s fertile ground for reporting, you might say.
- Standing at the car dealer I realized the only option I had is which trim level I wanted. Transition into book stuff.
- Because it was clear there already was no more average american. ? It took me 10 households just to scratch the surface. One question I get a lot is how did I find the families. How did I find the familes in the bookI was doubling up on some and was basically playing demographic bingo.
- So when a Hispanic Millennial started telling me about his white, slightly older, slightly better educated girlfriend that he was cohabitating with I was like SCORE! Or when my somewhat affluent New Yorker turned out to be a black man living with his Hispanic partner and an extra roomate in Harlem.
- Just one guy can fill out an entire demographic bingo card himself. That’s part of what’s changed. We all wear a lot more lables than we used to, because as a nation we’ve become more segmented. Why is that hard to get our heads around. I think there are two reasons.
- It’s hard to grow up in on eMaerican and find yoruself living in a different one. First, looking around the room I’d say most of us were around in 1970 or so. The average fortune 500 ceo is in his sixties – and it’s ok to say ‘his’ here because that’s what the overwhelming majority of fortune 500 ceos are. So just in our lifetime, look what’s happened. Highlight relevant stats Next. It’s my fault. Or at least my profession. We’re bad at math. We can’t count.
- Monocles! My profession does a horible job of helping you understand this. Include new york times trend headlines. We use many, many lables. And we wear more and more of them. There is no one america. There are many. And this shit’s complicated.
- Journalists make ti seem easy, but in fairness it’s not just the media. We all want to think nothing’s changed. Because change is often hard to see.
- It looks like the same picture, just newer. But there’s something different here. Because in the first picture they were all driving home to a bathroom that looked like this.
- They used to all be going home to a bathroom like this one. http://www.pinterest.com/hansgrohe/historic-bathrooms/
- Now it’s this
- Or more likely this http://www.pinterest.com/pin/508554982892846766/ -- seattle
- http://pascackvalleyhome.com/wp-content/uploads/2011/01/HarvestGold.jpg They used to all drive home to a kitchen like this one.
- Now they drive home to a ktichen like this one.
- Or more to the point, like this one. It’s hard to see tucked in there behind the dining room and living room. Bec. only one person lives here. http://www.thekitchn.com/kitchen-before-after-a-cramped-shoebox-kitchen-gets-gorgeously-gray-professional-kitchen-remodel-202771
- Which brings us to three big questions. As I’ve said, this stuff is complicated. But let’s start by looking at our largest generational cohort, our friends, the Millennials. Why? What’s changed? How can we predict what’s next?
- Some of you problably have millennial kids. Or coworkers. Self aborbed. Self-centereted selfie snappers. They’re all. And you’re all. Miss yellow here.
- Not so fast. Bee Gees. Chains. Bruce Lee Moves http://www.tcm.com/mediaroom/video/294765/Saturday-Night-Fever-Movie-Clip-Watch-The-Hair-.html
- So you see, this could all be thought as a cultural difference, but maybe it’s just a technological one. If you look at one of these trends, each of them can and often do have components that are based on location. Or technollgy. Or cultural or economic. And many are largely, you guessed it, demographic in nature. All of this is context for what we’re going to talk about next. So let’s spin the trend wheel and talk about one that is important to all of us in this room: Housing. Bur first, we can’t talk about anything until we talk about income. Because if you’re talking about income changes and housing changes with the recession as your starting point, you’re missing something important: The previous four decades. We have a vision where the trends are simple, becaue the NYT wants us to think that way. The most obvious is stock market reports.
- http://qz.com/260269/painfully-american-families-are-learning-the-difference-between-median-and-mean/ I really believe that the changes to the middle class are the trend driving all the other trends. The headline on this was median vs mean the hardway
- Take your pick. These are depressing and you’d better believe they’ll impact how people biy your product, who they are where they are. Where will amazon build its next facility and will it need more heating or more cooling? As we try to understand what’s growing, what’ shrinking and finally how we market it and sell it here are some things to keep in mind. Everything is bifurcating.
- All the appliances and the counters to put them on. As long as Ward worked hard a job, work hard, you’ll be taken care of. To talk about middle class in the book, I turned to Rosemary and John
- Talk about Rosemary and John. Chocies. Can afford to beocme single income. Based on whim instagram. Talk about her “allowance.” Things MC can’t afford. Including savings. New cars: shares help. But life of a car is increasing. Dental http://www.usatoday.com/story/money/personalfinance/2014/10/25/cheat-sheet-middle-class-cant-afford/17730223/
- 10K a day. Marketesr used to have a luxury cities didn’t. Put them out to pasture. AARP Quote remake the world. 60% have less than $100,000 in retirement savings 43% have saved less than $25,000 36% have saved less than $10,000 Workers aged 55+ http://www.schwab.com/public/schwab/nn/articles/Baby-Boomer-Reality-Check
- They’re aging too. They will be undergoing key demographic shifts that are drivers of relocation, but where and why they relocate is also changing. In the interest of time, let’s keep the focus on them for now. Not
- Great new sabout boobmers being stuck. Some are upgrading instead of moving. Someone told me that dumpsters are the new sign of prosperity – not for sale signs. Not all housing trends are so happy though. Source: http://info.aia.org/aiarchitect/2014/charts/mar2014/0321_hdts_slideshow.htm
- Home ownership rates by age: https://twitter.com/planmaestro/status/503264436019544064
- http://www.newgeography.com/content/00640-one-fundamental-problem-too-many-people-own-homes http://www.theatlantic.com/business/archive/2014/10/homeownership-is-historically-weakdont-blame-millennials/382010/
- Homeownership rates have been declining among 20somethings for decades. Let me say that again. While it’s sloped off considerably since 2005 – the indications are that the recession exacerbated/accelerated a long-existing trend. However, when you consider the changes in household structure, this seems more related to overall demographic changes than to “preference” changes.
- Where will it be built. How are these lifestyles impacting not only household formation rates, but the lifestyles of the boomer parents? Talk about the have an have nots here. Places that are adding millennials are often high-end tech markets. Those who can’t afford them aren’t going to lowend markets, they’re going to the no-end market: the basement.
- Trulia says we’ve come up short about 2.5 million housing units. That’s two full years of typical household formation gone. Again, complicate dreason that are economic and social. People are getting married later. Delayed life stages. Congress isn’t helping much. Interest rates could be much lower and the Feds could expand loan programs. WSJ last week said this was the big reason behind our previous slide about people living at home.
- With people having a hard time getting a loan, the financing market has changed. How are investor-owners – groups like Blackstone – going to, well, invest in properties. What’s that going to look like in terms of maintenance? In markets like Portland or Vancouver, part of the housing affordability problem is wealth investors from overseas buying properties and essentially landbanking them. http://www.urban.org/UploadedPDF/413052-Where-Have-All-the-Loans-Gone.pdf
- And what kind of housing stock are people buying? In many markets, the shift to mutli-family construction is driving growth. This is not likely to change and reflects growing demand, especially for walkable urban areas.
- I know I mocked the NYT trend pieces earlier, but sometimes they use actual Census data and draw a reasonable conclustion.
- But keep in mind, this is what’s happening now. Some of that is sure to continue. But we also know that for the most part, millennials do actually desire to get married have kids and buy homes. That might happen later. They might have fewer kids. They might buy smaller homes, but if you look at trends like “micro living’ ask yourself is fucntional but is having your bed and dining room be the same thing aspirational? I think the answer is no, and that soemtime – and soon the millennials will begin having kids, those kids will need schools and the ballgame will change again. http://archpaper.com/news/articles.asp?id=6438
- One reason I think that’s true is because the discussions of Millennials aren’t really living in the urban cores to the same extent that we’ve heard. Although these numbers have probably skewed slightly more since 2010. http://www.newgeography.com/content/004410-dispersing-millennials
- And people aren’ tjust moving to the big, hip cities. People are moving to Texas. Since 2000 what does all of this mean for heating and cooling? Or for water consumption.
- Note: not midwest. Since recession ended Why are they moving to these places. Often, jobs. We’re less about manufacturing and more about knowledge and energy. Fracking is driving population trends – that’s an environmental thing, too. What are the climates like? More heating or more cooling? How will climate change factor in?
- And heck, even politics come into play. Democrats are all about cities and republicans are all about sprawl and rural. Now remember, which party has the growing demographics? Not being political, just stating some facts.
- So coming back to our friend the trend wheel, We’ve just talked about a small sliver of things, housing trends. And to talk about housing, I’ve talked about fertility, driving and commuting, social norms (marriage), the sharing economy, government regulations, finance and economics (wealth, income, debt), education (loans), climate change, energy policy (fracking). But to sum it all up, we just need to realize one thing. The game has changed.
- Marketing in the age of Mad Men was a piece of cake. They read one paper and watched three chanells and as we’ve seen all the households looked alike. It was so easy, they didn’t have to do anthing but take naps and drink. ow we’ve got some ideas for how to think like a marketer in the product stage. It’s time to start thinking like a marketer in the advertising stage
- http://picc.it/c/people/pictures/album/humans_36513/page/33/?style=blog Here again, it looks like nothing has changed. Except They’re not all reading one of two papers. They’re reading whatever the hell they want to written by anyone and produced in audio, video, photo and more. Now the commuteres are soemitesm women. How has the middle class stayed afloat in the last generation desptie no real wage/income gains? By adding a 2nd income. But more improtantly, what’s changed isthat each of these people on each of their devices is having a totally different screen experience. The game has changed. But remember David Bowie. Not all changes have to be drastic.
- Changes in product promotion don’t require huge dramatic or catalytic events. They can be much more normal, even slower in evolution.
- Looked at the demographics. Looked at the trends. Changed its image.
- Revenues up more than 50% since 2010. Profits up 75%.
- Changed services, how they promoted them in response to market demands. Increase in revenue with little change to product line itself. Who needs a dining table all the time? Answer: no one. Right? So it’s not a dining table all the time.
- But if you do have a dingint table, this ad is briliant. Because it shows how the use of that table is diffretn for different people in a household at differetn times of day. In 1970 you would have seen a family gathered aroudn this either for an everyday dinner or a speicial occasion dinnner. And interestingly, that’s exactly what you’d see today in IKEAs hispanic-targeted ads.
- And back to choices. Wedding industrial complex. As a marketer, your competition
- Is now the entire universe. It’s not a handful of companies or even a complimentary industry or two. It’s everything. Jay, whom I also talk about in the book had to choose between the gas bill and the electric. Most folks aren’t that bad off. It’s ok. Tho. You market and your product can be fine. You just have to make the right choices on your end. About yoru products. About your marketing.
- I hope you enjoyed your meat and potatoes. Because now we’re going to have desert. I love being able to come to places like this and talk demographics.