Financial and Economic Update: The Secular Bull Market

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BPAS

Business Economy & Finance

The Anatomy
Of A Secular Bull Market
Ralph Acampora, CMT
Altaira Ltd

The Early 1960 Bull Market And Today's Market
Environment
• Low Interest Rates
• Low Inflation

Source: “The Fourth Mega Market”, Ralph J. Acampora, CMT
Structural Investor Sentiment

Five Years Of Problems
• 2009/2011 - The Fear of A World Depression
• 2010/2011 - The European Crisis - "The PIIGS"
• 2011 - US Downgrade By S&P
• 2012 - "The Arab Spring"
• 2012/2013 - Global Slowdown
• 2013 - US Fiscal Cliff
• 2013 - Sequester
• 2013 - Syrian Chemical Weapons
• 2014 - Russia/Crimea/Ukraine

S&P 500 Annual Performance During The First
Five Years Of This Secular Bull Market
March 2009 Low To The Year End of 2009 +53.81%
2010 +14.23%
2011 + 2.20%
2012 +14.53%
2013 +29.67%
Source: Thomson-Reuters in US$

"Melt-Up" Versus "A Bubble"
Performance from December 2013 to their respective peaks in early 2014*
% Peak
Dow Jones Industrial Average +3.46 14 Apr 14
S&P 500 Index +4.94 2 Apr 14
NASDAQ Composite +7.57 5 Mar 14
PHLX Semiconductor Sector Index (SOX) +17.98 3 Apr 14
S&P Mid-Cap Index +7.02 2 Apr 14
Russell 2000 Index +6.15 4 Mar 14
* Based on intraday highs and intraday lows, Source: Thomson-Reuters

Stealth Bear Market
Recent High Fliers Being Liquidated In The First & Second Quarter
Peak % Decline
Facebook 10 Mar 14 -24.21
Amazon 21 Jan 14 -28.23
Twitter 26 Dec 13 -58.95
Yelp 4 Mar 14 -49.06
Tesla 4 Mar 14 -29.23
Netflix 4 Mar 14 -30.76
Zinga 12 Mar 14 -39.82
Source: Thomson-Reuters

"Rotation Is The Life-Line
Of Every Secular Bull Market"

Market Performance | Midterm Election Years: The Four-Year Cycle
Source: Piper Jaffray Technical Research
Positive Q1
Weak Q2 & Q3
Strong Q4

Market Performance | Midterm Election Years: The Four-Year Cycle
Source: Piper Jaffray Technical Research
85
95
105
115
1/4/2010
2/4/2010
3/4/2010
4/4/2010
5/4/2010
6/4/2010
7/4/2010
8/4/2010
9/4/2010
10/4/2010
11/4/2010
12/4/2010
2010
2010 2014 YTD
90
100
110
120
1/3/2006
2/3/2006
3/3/2006
4/3/2006
5/3/2006
6/3/2006
7/3/2006
8/3/2006
9/3/2006
10/3/2006
11/3/2006
12/3/2006
2006
2006 2014 YTD
50
60
70
80
90
100
110
1/2/2002
2/2/2002
3/2/2002
4/2/2002
5/2/2002
6/2/2002
7/2/2002
8/2/2002
9/2/2002
10/2/2002
11/2/2002
12/2/2002
2002
2002 2014 YTD
85
95
105
115
125
135
1/2/1998
2/2/1998
3/2/1998
4/2/1998
5/2/1998
6/2/1998
7/2/1998
8/2/1998
9/2/1998
10/2/1998
11/2/1998
12/2/1998
1998
1998 2014 YTD

Sectors Making New Highs
Source: Bloomberg
Consumer Staples XLP

Sectors In Neutral Trends
Consumer Discretionary XLY
Source: Bloomberg

The Engine of Europe
DAX Index
Source: Bloomberg

The Strong Middle East
Gulf States Index (MES)
Source: Bloomberg

All That Glitters…
Gold (XAU)
Source: Bloomberg

Disclaimer
FOR USE WITH PROFESSIONAL INVESTORS ONLY.
This document contains general information only and is not to be acted
upon without obtaining specific legal, tax and investment advice from a
licensed professional. It is not an offer or solicitation to invest with Altaira
Limited. Past performance is not an indication of future returns. Unless
stated otherwise, the source of data is Bloomberg.

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Financial and Economic Update: The Secular Bull Market

1. The Anatomy Of A Secular Bull Market Ralph Acampora, CMT Altaira Ltd

2. March 2009: " A Generational Low"

3. The Early 1960 Bull Market And Today's Market Environment • Low Interest Rates • Low Inflation

4. Source: “The Fourth Mega Market”, Ralph J. Acampora, CMT Structural Investor Sentiment

5. Five Years Of Problems • 2009/2011 - The Fear of A World Depression • 2010/2011 - The European Crisis - "The PIIGS" • 2011 - US Downgrade By S&P • 2012 - "The Arab Spring" • 2012/2013 - Global Slowdown • 2013 - US Fiscal Cliff • 2013 - Sequester • 2013 - Syrian Chemical Weapons • 2014 - Russia/Crimea/Ukraine

6. S&P 500 Annual Performance During The First Five Years Of This Secular Bull Market March 2009 Low To The Year End of 2009 +53.81% 2010 +14.23% 2011 + 2.20% 2012 +14.53% 2013 +29.67% Source: Thomson-Reuters in US$

7. "Melt-Up" Versus "A Bubble" Performance from December 2013 to their respective peaks in early 2014* % Peak Dow Jones Industrial Average +3.46 14 Apr 14 S&P 500 Index +4.94 2 Apr 14 NASDAQ Composite +7.57 5 Mar 14 PHLX Semiconductor Sector Index (SOX) +17.98 3 Apr 14 S&P Mid-Cap Index +7.02 2 Apr 14 Russell 2000 Index +6.15 4 Mar 14 * Based on intraday highs and intraday lows, Source: Thomson-Reuters

8. Stealth Bear Market Recent High Fliers Being Liquidated In The First & Second Quarter Peak % Decline Facebook 10 Mar 14 -24.21 Amazon 21 Jan 14 -28.23 Twitter 26 Dec 13 -58.95 Yelp 4 Mar 14 -49.06 Tesla 4 Mar 14 -29.23 Netflix 4 Mar 14 -30.76 Zinga 12 Mar 14 -39.82 Source: Thomson-Reuters

9. "Rotation Is The Life-Line Of Every Secular Bull Market"

10. Market Performance | Midterm Election Years: The Four-Year Cycle Source: Piper Jaffray Technical Research Positive Q1 Weak Q2 & Q3 Strong Q4

11. Market Performance | Midterm Election Years: The Four-Year Cycle Source: Piper Jaffray Technical Research 85 95 105 115 1/4/2010 2/4/2010 3/4/2010 4/4/2010 5/4/2010 6/4/2010 7/4/2010 8/4/2010 9/4/2010 10/4/2010 11/4/2010 12/4/2010 2010 2010 2014 YTD 90 100 110 120 1/3/2006 2/3/2006 3/3/2006 4/3/2006 5/3/2006 6/3/2006 7/3/2006 8/3/2006 9/3/2006 10/3/2006 11/3/2006 12/3/2006 2006 2006 2014 YTD 50 60 70 80 90 100 110 1/2/2002 2/2/2002 3/2/2002 4/2/2002 5/2/2002 6/2/2002 7/2/2002 8/2/2002 9/2/2002 10/2/2002 11/2/2002 12/2/2002 2002 2002 2014 YTD 85 95 105 115 125 135 1/2/1998 2/2/1998 3/2/1998 4/2/1998 5/2/1998 6/2/1998 7/2/1998 8/2/1998 9/2/1998 10/2/1998 11/2/1998 12/2/1998 1998 1998 2014 YTD

12. Sectors Making New Highs Source: Bloomberg Consumer Staples XLP

13. Sectors In Neutral Trends Consumer Discretionary XLY Source: Bloomberg

14. The Engine of Europe DAX Index Source: Bloomberg

15. The Strong Middle East Gulf States Index (MES) Source: Bloomberg

16. All That Glitters… Gold (XAU) Source: Bloomberg

17. Disclaimer FOR USE WITH PROFESSIONAL INVESTORS ONLY. This document contains general information only and is not to be acted upon without obtaining specific legal, tax and investment advice from a licensed professional. It is not an offer or solicitation to invest with Altaira Limited. Past performance is not an indication of future returns. Unless stated otherwise, the source of data is Bloomberg.

Financial and Economic Update: The Secular Bull Market

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Financial and Economic Update: The Secular Bull Market