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Modified Revised-Marshal Score
1. Anne Saputra
Mahadewa TG, Golden N
Department of Surgery, Faculty of Medicine Udayana University
Sanglah General Hospital, Bali
2. Traumatic Brain
Injury (TBI)
Severe TBI mortality 50%
(Bullock 2011)
Indonesia: (RSCM, PERDOSSI
2009)
Severe 35-50%
Moderate 5-10%
RSUP Sanglah, Bali:
• > 2000 cases a year
• 30% severe TBI
DECISION OF SURGERY ?
• Do I need to operate?
• When should to operate?
Prognostic score model
ANATOMICAL &
PHYSIOLOGICAL
5. Statistic
RTSc = 0.9368 GCSc + 0.7326 SBPc + 0.2908 RRc
Chawda, M.N. 2004. Predicting Outcome After Multiple Trauma: Which Scoring System? The International Journal of The Care of The
Injured; 35: 347-358.
6. Statistic
Winn, R. 2017. Youmans & Winn Neurological Surgery (7th ed) in Clinical pathophysiology of traumatic brain injury
8. Prognosis TBI
PHYSIOLOGY:
• GCS
• Hypotension
• Hypoxia
ANATOMY:
Imaging Brain CT scan
RTS Marshall
Both have correlation with outcome
1. COMBINATION???
2. Improved Outcome???
9. Prospective observational approved by Committee
of ethical study on 181 patients at ER dept in
2017
• Eligible patients of Moderate/Severe TBI
• Both Marshall & RTS were recorded in the first
60 min
• Exclude: Respiratory, cardiogenic, neoplasma
and multiple trauma
• Outcome: GOS 6 months
Analyzed using SPSS 16.0, p<0.05
18. END POINT:
1. Combination results in higher sensitivity
and proved to increase validity in predicting
outcomes
2. Combination has a correlation
NEW modified score prognostic
19. Used for early detection of
unfavourable outcomes
RTS 10 dan CT Scan Marshall 2
An easy-to-use modified trauma score
on triage setting (accurate, simple,
applicable and reliable)
TBI is major global public health problem, with high mortality and morbidity incidence a year.
TBI associated with long-term physical, cognitive, and psychological disturbances as quality of life.
Trauma is a time-sensitive condition
Easy-to-use trauma scoring systems inform physicians of the severity of the trauma in patients and help them to decide
There is prognostic analysis, the modifiedable factors to prevent secondary brain injury.
Those are: Physiological factors (SBP, Hipoxia and Hipotermia).
Anatomical
Revised Trauma Score (RTS). It uses three specific physiologic parameters: Glasgow Coma Scale (GCS), blood pressure, and respiration rate.
RTS telah banyak digunakan pada trauma center, dan diyakini mampu meramalkan probability of survival pada kasus trauma.
Dengan semakin tinggi nilai RTS, makan semakin besar probability of survival
Neuroimaging is essential in defining the anatomical extent and structural damage of intracranial injury and managing patients with acute brain injury.
Marshall used as International guidelines on prognosis include this classification as a major predictor of outcome
A single predictor has been widely used in trauma and provides an overview of the patient’s prognosis.
There is no single score is perfect, each has its own limitation.
Combination is expected to minimize it.
Based on this ROC (Receiver Operating Characteristic) analysis to assess the ability of the prediction of RTS in predicting outcomes, assessed based on the Area Under the Curve (AUC).
a curve is formed below the diagonal line, which means that the lower the value of the parameter then the chances of getting a higher unfavourable outcomes Interpretation of the ROC curve,
Formed diagonal line on these curves in the get AUC amounting to 02542, This means that a low RTS has a good ability to predict unfavourable outcomes.
The best cut point is determined based on the coordinates of the line furthest from the diagonal and in the get RTS <=10, Marshall <=2
Hasil Penggabungan:
Kemampuan menunjukan secara akurat dicerminkan dengan sensitive-spesif
Skrining ideal memiliki sensi – spesi tinggi: VALIDITAS tinggi
SENsitifitas: Kemampuan menunjukkan, berapakah yang benar memiliki unfavorable outcome dari seluruh populasi yang unfavourable outcome
Spesif : Kemampuan menunjukan FAV pada populasi FAVourable
NPP : kemampuan meramalkan , benar2 unfavorable
NPN: kemampuan meramalkan, benar2 FAV
Suatu skoring memiliki kelebihan dan kekurangan masing-masing
Penggabungan akan lebih meningkatkan kemampuan dan memperkecil kekurangan dari sebuah skoring
Terbukti pada penelitian ini!
Pearson’s correlation formula proved that RTS has a positive correlation to Marshall.
logistic regression model of RTS and MCTC, a formula can be generated by combining both scores
kemampuan prediksi penggabungan memberikan hasil prediksi yang telah terbukti baik,
dilanjutkan dengan mencari korelasi atau kekuatan hubungan
Arah korelasi dikatakan searah apabila nilai r positif.
Korelasi dikatakan bermakna antara kedua variabel yang diuji apabila nilai p<0,05
Koefisien beta menunjukkan seberapa besar outcome bila MODIF meningkat
koefisien determinasi menunjukkan seberapa UNFAV dapat diprediksi oleh MODIF
y = a + (b1.x1) + (b2.x2)
Berdasar kedua hasil Analisa tersebut di dapatkan nilai koefisien determinasi (R2) 0.3345
dirumuskan PROGNOSTIK SKORING BARU
modified RTS-Marshall skor sebagai berikut.
Skrining awal/deteksi dini -> dapat memprediksi hasil akhir, sebelum muncul tanda dan gejala komplikasi.
Treatment lebih awal
outcome lebih baik.
Salah satu syarat tes skrining : Akurat dan Reabilitas
Akurat -> menunjukkan sejauh mana hasil skrining sesuai dengan kenyataan
Reabilitas -> standarisasi pengujian, jika pengukuran dilakukan berulang kali hasil yang diperoleh tidak jauh berbeda : Sensitif-Spesifi-NPP-NPN
Syarat skrining baik: akurat, Simple, applicable, reliable