Green power markets global trends, 2022 - Presentation by GIZ Sino-German Energy Transition Project Director Anders Hove to EU-China Energy Cooperation Platform, from 15 September 2022 workshop

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Green power market global trends, 2022
绿色电力市场全球趋势，2022
Anders Hove
Project Director, Sino-German Energy Transition Project
侯安德，项目主任，中德能源转型研究项目

2. Presentation outline
主要内容
Slide 2
1. Why do we need green power trading?
为什么我们需要绿电交易？
2. How large is the voluntary green power trading market?
绿电自愿交易市场有多大？
3. How to allocate green certificate revenues?
如何分配绿证收入？
4. Should hydro, nuclear, or other generation be included?
应该包括水电、核电或者其他发电方式吗？
5. Who should manage, monitor, and issue green certificates?
谁应该管理、监督和颁发绿色证书？
2. How are green power markets changing as RE proportion rises?
随着可再生能源占比的上升，绿电市场应当如何变化？

3. 1. PURPOSE OF GREEN POWER TRADING 绿电交易的目的
Several elements form the foundation of green power markets
构成绿电市场的基本要素
Slide 3
Purpose目的:
Innovation? Extra ambition? Risk management? Government revenue?
创新？野心？风险管理？政府收入？
Participants参与者:
Individuals, private corporations, domestic and international companies?
个人，私营企业，国内和国际企业？
Path to carbon neutrality实现碳中和的途径:
Mandatory or voluntary?
强制还是自愿？
Monitoring, reporting, verification (MRV)监督、报告、核验（MRV）:
Tracking system, independent regulator, market and public trust
跟踪体系、独立监管、市场和公众信任

4. Falling wind and solar costs have shifted purpose of green power
风能和太阳能成本下降改变了绿电的用途
Slide 4
光伏板 集中式太阳能 陆上风电 海上风电
拍卖数据库 平准化成本数据库

5. Purpose of green power trading has shifted several times
绿电交易的目的已经发生多次变化
Source: Gregory Miller, “Beyond 100 % renewable: Policy and practical pathways to
24/7 renewable energy procurement,” The Electricity Journal, 33(2), 2020, at
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.tej.2019.106695..
绿证 购电协议 价格下降 可再生能源
激励
促进
绿色形象
保值
降低成本
维持影响力和降低风险
图：企业可再生能源采购趋势的演变

6. 2. GREEN POWER MARKET TREND: SIZE 绿电市场趋势：规模
How large is the green power market? (U.S.)
绿电市场有多大？（美国）
Slide 6
这代表了：
每20个美国零售电力客户中
有1个占美国零售电力销售的5%
绿电交易总量2010-2020（百万MWh）

7. Voluntary green power purchases, TWh
Several forms of green power trading are all growing
绿电交易的几种形式都在增长
Source: NREL 2021
Voluntary and mandatory green power purchases, TWh
绿电自愿交易，TWh 绿电自愿和强制交易，TWh

8. Not all companies are buying green power
不是所有的公司都采购绿电
技术
通讯
消费品
食品饮料
燃油天然气
财团
制造业
汽车
房地产
MUSH
其他
金融

9. Some large corporations
are even leaving the grid
一些大企业甚至正在离网
Source: Daniel Rothberg, “MGM Resorts, Wynn to stop
purchasing NV Energy power Saturday,” Las Vegas Sun,
30 September 2016, at
https://lasvegassun.com/news/2016/sep/30/mgm-resorts-
wynn-stop-purchasing-nv-energy-power/.

10. Unbundled REC pricing has risen recently, generally very low cost
未捆绑的可再生能源认证价格最近有所上升，一般来说成本很低
 National unbundled REC pricing
typically tracks pricing in ERCOT
 国家非捆绑的REC定价通常追随
ERCOT的定价
 Pricing has been under $1/MWh for
more than 5 years until an upshoot
in summer 2020
 5年多来，定价一直低于1美元/MWh，
直到2020年夏季开始上升
 The increase in pricing in summer
2020 correlated with increased
demand, but the cause of the
increase is not clear
 2020年夏季定价的增长与需求的增
加相关，但增加的原因并不明确
 Will pricing impact purchases in
2020?
 定价会影响2020年的购买吗？
ERCOT电力需求 V 国家绿电历史价格

11. Europe: GO demand has risen due to increased corporate buying
由于企业购买量的增加，电力来源担保需求（GO）有所增长
Adapted from Yan Qin, Refinitiv, 2021

12. Germany is the largest importer, Norway the largest exporter
德国是最大的进口国，挪威是最大的出口国
Adapted from Yan Qin, Refinitiv, 2021

13. EU Guarantee of Origin policy largely supports existing RE
欧盟电力来源担保（GO）最大程度地支持了现有可再生能源
Adapted from Yan Qin, Refinitiv, 2021

14. In Europe, GO prices have remained too low to offer much incentive
电力来源担保价格一直较低，无法提供足够的激励
Source: AIB 2020; adapted from Yan Qin, Refinitiv, 2021
AIB当年可再生能源——欧元

15. 3. ALLOCATING GREEN POWER REVENUES 绿色电力收入的分配
How to allocate green certificate revenue?
如何分配绿色证书收入？
Slide 15
• In general, revenues from voluntary green certificates purchased by corporations and
individuals are given to generation companies, and not shared to other entities like the grid
or other consumers.
• 一般来说，企业和个人自愿购买的绿色证书的收入都给了发电公司，而没有分享给其他实体，
如电网或其他消费者。
• Transmission and distribution costs and other costs are taken care of by regulated charges
or by wheeling charges, in the case of physical PPAs.
• 输电和配电成本以及其他成本由监管费用或间接输送费（在实际PPA的情况下）来解决。
• If the renewable generator faces connection costs or integration costs, these may be
bundled into the cost of renewable PPAs.
• 如果可再生能源发电机面临连接成本或整合成本，这些可能被捆绑在可再生能源PPA的成本
中。
• There may be a (very small) fee for generators registering on a tracking platform to pay the
cost of tracking systems.
• 对于在跟踪平台上注册的生产商，可能会有一个（非常小的）费用，以支付跟踪系统的费用。

16. 4. TECHNOLOGIES 技术
What technologies should green power market support?
绿电市场应当支持哪些技术
Slide 16
Because purchasers of voluntary green certificates have different requirements, tracking
systems increasingly incorporate more attributes to enable the market to deliver the green
products that consumers want.
由于自愿绿色证书的购买者有不同需求，跟踪系统越来越多的纳入更多的属性，使市场能够
提供消费者想要的绿色产品。
Currently, most customers mainly interested in renewable energy, and specifically in
additional (newly-built) renewables.
目前，大多数消费者主要对可再生能源感兴趣，尤其是对新增的（新建）可再生能源
- Companies strongly favour additionality企业强烈的需要新增
- Companies view wind and solar as more sustainable企业认为风能和太阳能更可持续
- Hydro has no need for additional revenue水电不需要额外的收益
- Nuclear is too expensive compared to wind and solar与风能和太阳能相比，核电太贵

17. 5. RESPONSIBILITIES 责任
Who should manage and issue green certificates?
谁应当管理和核发绿证？
Slide 17
• A variety of systems exist. In some cases, the government maintains the registry at the national level or at the
regional/province level.
• 存在各种不同的系统，在某些情况下，政府在国家或地区/省层面注册。
• In the U.S., which has no national system, 23 of 31 states with mandatory renewable obligations maintain
state registries. Regional and international TSO/RTOs sometimes manage and implement certificate registries.
• 在美国，没有全国性的系统，在31个强制性可再生能源义务的州中，有23个州有州级注册；区域和国际
TSO/RTO有时会管理和实施证书注册。
• Examples of regional or international platforms include GATS in PJM (U.S. Midwest RTO) and M-RETS in the
MISO region (U.S. Plains and Central Canada RTO). Regional registries enable the RTOs to ensure certificate
trading does not double-count certificates that have already been used to comply with state mandates.
• 区域或国际平台的实例包括PJM（美国中西部RTO）的GATS和MISO地区（美国平原和加拿大中部RTO）的M-
RET；区域注册使区域贸易组织能够确保证书交易不会重复计算已经用于遵守国家规定的证书。
• The existence of multiple platforms is a result of the fragmented market in the U.S., not a positive feature. But
it does have some benefits, in that these markets can move quickly to adopt new systems to attract
customers.
• 多个平台的存在是美国市场分散的结果，不是一个积极的特征，但确实有一些好处，因为这些市场可以迅速采
取行动，采用新系统来吸引客户。

18. 6. CHANGING VIEWS OF GREEN POWER MARKETS 绿电市场认知的改变
Parts of the public and climate community consider purchase
of green certificates as a form of greenwashing
部分公众和气候界认为绿证购买是洗绿的一种形式

19. Some U.S. experts have written that voluntary RECs no longer
represent clean power in California unless matched to load
一些美国专家认为在加利福尼亚的自愿绿证交易不再代表清洁电力，除
非其与负荷相匹配
Source: Jacques A. de Chalendar and Sally M. Benson, “Why 100% Renewable Energy
Is Not Enough,” Joule 3, 19 June 2019, at https://doi.org/10.1016/j.joule.2019.05.002.

20. Companies that rely on RECs may be overestimating their benefit
可能高估了依赖可再生能源认证的企业效益
Source: Anders Bjørn et al., “Renewable energy certificates threaten the
integrity of corporate science-based targets,” Nature Climate Change, June 2022, at
https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-022-01379-5.

21. Google has set a 2030 target to achieve 100% 24/7 renewables
谷歌已经设定了2030年实现每周24小时100%可再生能源的目标

22. Hourly data on Google’s 24/7 data center RE matching
谷歌24/7数据中心可再生能源匹配小时数据
Netherlands
荷兰
Iowa, U.S.
美国lowa

23. • Google announced in January 2021 that it will acquire RECs based on hourly attributes
• 谷歌在2021年1月宣布将根据每小时的属性来获取RECs
 Reflects public perception that merely acquiring wind or solar MWh doesn’t reflect real cost or value of RE
 公众的看法是：仅仅获得风能和太阳能并不能反映可再生能源的真实成本或价值
 Brings RECs closer in line with virtual PPA
 使RECs和虚拟PPA更加接近
• M-RETS, an NGO tracking REC attributes in the U.S. Midwest, has tracked and assigned REC
hourly attributes since 2019
• M-RETS是跟踪美国中西部地区REC属性的NGO，自2019年开始追踪分配REC
• M-Rets has developed a timeline to track other attributes in the future such as avoided emissions,
fuel mix on local grids, and even employment
• M-Rets已经制定了一个时间表用以跟踪未来的属性，例如减排、地方电网的混合燃料和就业
 Companies are beginning to seek clean energy projects in regions with higher levels of dirty power sources. These projects will
have the largest potential impact of displacing fossil fuel use or GHG emissions reductions.
 企业正在开始在污染性电力来源较多的地区寻求清洁能源项目，这将对化石燃料的替代使用或减少排放产生影响
• M-RETS is used mainly for voluntary RECs, but some states also use it to track state Renewable
Portfolio Standards requirements
• M-RETS主要用于自愿性RECs，部分州也用来跟踪州可再生能源组合的标准要求
Both PJM and MISO provide more hourly tracking of REC data
PJM和MISO均提供了更多以小时跟踪的绿证数据

24. Pros优点
 Less strain on grid, lower emissions
 减少电网压力，降低排放
 Sends more efficient market signal, avoids artificial shortages and
negative pricing
 发出更有效的市场信号，避免人为的短缺和负面定价
 Helps with grid planning
 有助于电网规划
 Promotes procurement of lowest-carbon resource mix instead of
lowest levelized-cost of electricity
 促进采购最低碳的资源组合，而不是最低平准成本的电力
 Could be easier to integrate with Demand Response
 可以更容易地与需求响应相结合
M-RETS summarizes the pros and cons of 24/7 RE procurement
M-RETS 总结了24/7可再生能源采购的利弊

25. Cons缺点
 More complex for everyone: grid, RTO/ISO, customer
 对所有参与方都更复杂：电网、RTO/ISO、客户
 May require modifications to existing contracts such as PPAs
 可能需要修改现有的合同，如PPAs
 Requires buyers to procure from multiple sources or to coordinate
buying with other entities—some buyers may want to just procure
wind and solar
 要求买方从多个来源采购或与其他实体协调购买，一些买方可能只
想采购风能和太阳能
M-RETS summarizes the pros and cons of 24/7 RE procurement
M-RETS 总结了24/7可再生能源采购的利弊

26. ENTSO-E advocates 24/7 time matching and location matching
ENTSO-E 提倡24/7时间匹配和位置匹配

27. Summary总结
Slide 27
1. Green power trading is evolving to support new goals
绿色电力交易正在演变以支持新的目标
2. Green power trading began as a way to promote additional revenue for
RE, now shifting to integrate with ambitious RE plans
绿色电力交易一开始是作为促进可再生能源额外收入的一种方式，现在
转向与雄心勃勃的可再生能源计划相结合
3. 24/7 RE requires consideration of storage, requires new forms of
tracking
24/7可再生能源需要考虑储能，需要新的跟踪形式

28. www.giz.de @derznovich
9/28/2022 Sino-German Energy Transition Project
Page 28
Contact 联系人
anders.hove@giz.de
Anders Hove 侯安德
Project Director, Sino-German Energy Transition, GIZ China
德国国际合作机构（驻华） 中德能源转型研究项目 项目主任