Forecast of the exchange rate crisis in business planning, Ukraine

2. • I saw the future big problems with exchange rate UAH$ in Feb13, as
result the future falling of customers purchasing capacity and sales
• Regarding this my strategy suggestions to General Manager for FY
2013-2014 were:
• Avoiding big investment in business expansion
• Focus on efficiency of the current business
8 SIMPLE STEPS
The way to forecast the currency crisis in Ukraine

3. Україна
Source:NBUreporthttp://www.bank.gov.ua/doccatalog/document?id=127941
Step 1
The
National
Budget
deficit is on
the same
level (10-20
billion uah
per year)

4. Source:NBUreporthttp://www.bank.gov.ua/doccatalog/document?id=127941
Step 2
Decreasing
the GDP
growth

5. Source:NBUreporthttp://www.bank.gov.ua/doccatalog/document?id=127941
Step 3
Increasing the
Government &
Guaranteed
Debt
As result
increasing the
interest
payments

6. Step 4
Large increasing
the External Debt

7. External Debt and GDP, million $
Step 5
High ratio of the
External Debt
and GDP

8. 10 000
15 000
5 000
0
01.03.2015
5,624
Step 6
Decreasing
the NBU
reserves

9. Step 7
Increasing
balance of
payments
deficit
Source: http://www.kuchma.org.ua/ico/monitoring/10397/

10. GDP, mln UAH
Step 8
The weak Ukrainian
economy (Steps 1-6),
big deficit of
balance of payments
(Step 7) and exchange
rate changing

11. Step 1 The National Budget deficit is on the same level (+-)
Step 2 Decreasing the GDP growth
Step 3 Increasing the Government & Guaranteed Debt. As result
increasing the interest payments
Step 4 Large increasing the External Debt
Step 5 High ratio of the External Debt and GDP
Step 6 Decreasing the NBU reserves
Step 7 Increasing balance of payments deficit
Step 8 The weak Ukrainian economy, big deficit of balance of
payments and EXCHANGE RATE CHANGING
The EuroMaidan, Russian aggression, financial speculations and
currency panic are the additional factors that affect the UAH collapse,
but THE MAIN 2 FACTORS ARE……

12. Why do we have bad financial
performance in Ukraine?
1. Low efficiency of economy
2. Huge corruption level
What should we do?
1. Stimulate Business
Growth
2. Use the Georgia
experience on corruption

13. Thank you for
attention!
lynnyk.o(at)gmail.com