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Financial Stability Review 2/2013


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Financial Stability Review 2/2013

  1. 1. Financial Stability Review 23/10/2013 1
  2. 2. Key points 2 2
  3. 3. Increased economic activity has reduced uncertainty in the international financial environment Economies are recovering more slowly in some euro area countries and the risks are compounded by high debt levels and weak banking sectors Source: EcoWin 3
  4. 4. Money market rates have remained low in the current monetary policy environment Source: EcoWin 4
  5. 5. The strong confidence shown by the markets thus far has given Nordic bank groups good access to financing and stable prices The large share of funding coming from the markets creates a vulnerability in the financing of Swedish banks Source: Bloomberg 5
  6. 6. A high debt burden among households and rapid growth in real estate prices have emerged as the major risks to financial stability in Sweden and Norway A fall in real estate prices could cause a recession and hinder banks in accessing funding from financial markets Sources: Valueguard, Norwegian Association of Real Estate Agents, Eesti Pank calculations 6
  7. 7. The slowdown in the economy has not affected the solvency of Estonian companies Sources: Krediidiinfo, Eesti Pank 7
  8. 8. The risks to the solvency of households have been reduced by the low level of EURIBOR and by favourable developments in the labour market Sources: Statistics Estonia, Eesti Pank 8
  9. 9. Real estate prices have risen faster than nominal GDP Sources: Statistics Estonia, Estonian Land Board 9
  10. 10. Growth in housing loans has remained modest Bank lending standards have not changed 10
  11. 11. The margins on housing loans have not changed 11
  12. 12. Growth in deposits has made the financing of the loan portfolio more balanced The loans-to-deposit ratio fell to 109% 12
  13. 13. Capitalisation of banks has improved as profitability is good The quality of capital is high and leverage low 13
  14. 14. Main risks and consequences 14
  15. 15. Most of the risks to financial stability in Estonia are small 15
  16. 16. The recession in the euro area weakened the asset quality of euro area banks significantly 16
  17. 17. The Nordic financial sector is considered secure but risks have increased in the real estate market 17
  18. 18. The banks operating in Estonia need to continue to be careful in issuing real estate loans 18
  19. 19. Main risks affecting Estonian financial stability Weak economies in Europe damaging the quality of bank assets A sharp fall in Nordic real estate prices following on from the rapid growth that could pose a threat to economies and bank groups in the area A spiral effect created by rapid rises in real estate prices and wages, in which banks, borrowers and savers start to act ever more riskily Small risk Large risk 19
  20. 20. For the Estonian banking sector to maintain its resilience it is important to keep the minimum capital requirement at 10% 20
  21. 21. Planned changes to the capital requirements from 2014 Until 31/12/2013 From 2014 10% 8% Systemic risk buffer - 2%* Counter-cyclical buffer - 0%* 10% 10%* Minimum capital adequacy requirement Total capital requirements * Proposed requirement 21