Axa Assurance Maroc - Insurer Innovation Award 2024
NETFLIX Business Analysis & Valuation
1. Analysis & Valuation
For MGMT E-2620, Prof. Dalko
TEAM - 10
Brian Schoenherr, Anirudh Udayashankar, Junyao Zhao, Alegra N Horne & Larry Montello
2. Netflix Company Profile
• Pioneer and leader of the on-line TV market.
• 75M subscribers in over 190 countries.
• 125 million hours of viewing per day.
• Affordable no-commitment monthly fee.
• Personalized recommendations based on
sophisticated user monitoring.
• DVD rental is very profitable but an ever smaller
contributor to their business.
3. First Mover Advantage
Very Competitive Landscape
(Source: “Premium Prospects for OTT in the USA” study from MTM, Ooyala and Vindicia)
4. Threat of New Entrants
Hybrid Services
Niche offerings
MEDIUM
Threat of Substitutes
Cable Live streaming
Opting outside
Free alternatives
HIGH
Bargaining Power of Buyers
Low cost alternatives
Low switching cost
HIGH
Bargaining Power of
Suppliers
Supplier-Competitors
Strategic Alliances
HIGH
Degree of Rivalry among
Competitors
Amazon & Hulu
HBO, CBS, Fox
Apple, Google, Roku
HIGH
Industry Analysis -
Porter’s Five Forces
5. Netflix Competitive Strategy
• 48% share, more than twice as big as the next
competitor (Amazon 20% and Hulu 10%).
• Differentiation Strategy: offering superior
content to the global video streaming market.
• Sophisticated monitoring capability to
understand their customers preferences and
select winning content.
7. Netflix Corporate Strategy Analysis
• Three reportable segments: domestic streaming,
International streaming and Domestic DVD.
• Started with DVD rentals and built its knowledge of
(and tools to measure) winning content.
• Planned growth of customer base from 75M today to
150M by 2020.
• Primary investments:
– Global Expansion: Serving 190 countries world-wide
– $5B investment is developing their own content.
8. Strategy Analysis Conclusions
• Netflix is number 1 in video streaming and are
making investments to maintain their market
leadership.
• NFLX stock is trading at a very high premium over
what might be predicted with fundamental analysis.
This is typical of a market leader in a new emerging
high tech market.
• We predict Netflix will regress to the market growth
rate of 20% and face higher content and delivery
costs as they expand internationally.
9. Netflix – Accounting Analysis
• Revenue stream: Subscription fees only
– No advertising revenue
• Asset Recognition
– Library of DVD and streaming content
– Global network
– Mostly straight line amortization - discretionary
10. Netflix – Accounting Analysis
• Liabilities recognition: Subscription fees only
– Fixed costs for content licensing v/s variable subscription
fees; gross margin liabilities
– Future contracts of $6.1 billion – currently discussed, but
unaccounted for
– Growing international business – exchange rate volatility
• -$331 million impact in 2015
17. Other Ratios
Year Ended Dec-10, (MM USD) 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
EBITDA Margin 28.7% 38.0% 48.6% 55.8% 57.8% 56.4%
Sustainable Growth Rate 53.3% 35.2% 2.3% 8.4% 14.4% 5.5%
Dividend policy: Netflix has not declared or paid any cash dividends, and has no
intention of paying cash dividends in the foreseeable future.
On July 14, 2015, Netflix exercised a 7:1 stock split in the form of a stock dividend
to all shareholders.
Financial Analysis – Other Ratios
19. Statement of Cash Flows
Year Ended Dec-10, (MM USD) 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Net Income 160.85 226.13 17.15 112.40 266.80 122.64
After-tax net interest expense (income) 11.61 12.60 11.24 19.15 38.35 114.72
Non-operating losses (gains) -10.50 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Long-term operating accruals -101.32 -1,487.96 -782.48 -808.22 -980.54 -2,207.38
Depreciation and amortization 340.07 839.62 1,702.08 2,241.68 2,781.80 3,547.05
Content expenses -441.39 -2,327.58 -2,484.56 -3,049.90 -3,762.34 -5,754.43
Operating cash flow before working capital investments $60.64 -$1,249.23 -$754.09 -$676.67 -$675.39 -$1,970.02
Net (investments in) or liquidation of operating working capital 227.37 1,579.55 788.09 793.65 730.22 1,335.30
Operating cash flow before investment in long-term assets $288.01 $330.32 $34.00 $116.98 $54.83 -$634.72
Net (investment in) or liquidation of operating long-term assets -116.09 -265.82 -245.91 -255.97 -42.87 -179.19
Free cash flow available to debt and equity $171.92 $64.50 -$211.91 -$138.99 $11.96 -$813.91
After-tax net interest expense (income) 11.61 12.60 11.24 19.15 38.35 114.72
Net debt (repayment) or issuance -1.78 195.98 -2.62 270.05 398.91 1,499.45
Free cash flow available to equity $158.53 $247.88 -$225.77 $111.91 $372.52 $570.82
Dividend (payments) 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Net stock (repurchase), issuance, or other equity changes 49.78 219.56 3.66 124.56 67.62 95.61
Net increase (decrease) in cash balance $208.31 $467.44 -$222.11 $236.47 $440.14 $666.43
20. Baseline forecast –
Assumptions for current stock price $95.50
• Maintain sales growth > 25% per annum
• NOPAT Margin > 7.4% per annum
• Increase from 5.5 million subscribers (2015) to 15 million new
subscribers each year for 5 years.
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Assumptions suggests Netflix can maintain its competitive
advantage in a very competitive industry.
We think the current set of assumptions are unrealistic..
Netflix – Prospective Analysis
21. Netflix – Scenario Analysis
Best case scenario $95
Most likely scenario $ 65
Worst case scenario $30
22. Valuation using Price Multiples
Time Warner Cable
Price/Earnings: 28.7
Price/Book ratio: 5.85
Comcast
Price/Earnings: 17.4
Price/Book ratio: 2.64
Netflix, Inc.
Price /Earnings ratio: 398
Price /Book ratio: 18.3
23. Overall Recommendation
We assign a Sell rating to Netflix stock.
Netflix current stock price: $95 a share
Macro factors: Increased competition
Company factors: low margins, increasing
debt, negative cash flows
Fair value at $65 a share
Netflix offers content on a subscription basis only, and does not derive any advertising revenue (as does most of the industry).
One key measure of Netflix’s success is its vast library of streaming and DVD content, which can currently be accessed globally.
This is represented as current and non-current content assets on the balance sheet – and we agree with this practice – as the content earns future cash flows for the company.
While the individual contracts for titles is impossible to determine, Netflix amortizes the content assets (licensed and produced) in “Cost of Revenues” on the Consolidated Statements of Operations.
The amortization period typically ranges from six months to five years.
The rate of amortization is discretionary to management, and a potential red flag with future growth in content assets.
While Netflix’s revenues are variable per the number of user subscriptions, the contracts for streaming licenses are fixed – which gives rise to gross margin liabilities which we should be watchful for.
Currently about $6.1 billion of future streaming assets and corresponding liabilities are not included on the balance sheet, as viewers cannot access them as yet. We believe this is correct, as it would have otherwise artifitially inflated the size of the balance sheet, with no gain to net operating assets.
With a growing international business segment, we should also account for Forex volatility, as all revenues net are translated into USD for accounting purposes.
In analyzing the financial statements we found that Management discussions are extremely detailed regarding all inherent risks to the future growth of the company - both in terms of customer acquisition and technological advancements - and has proven to be reliable in representing the business in the correct light, allowing investors to make calculated assumptions about opportunities on hand.
We concur with Netflix’s claims to manage balance sheet to lower blended cost of capital over time, while maintaining financial flexibility.
Netflix’s sales growth has been more than 20% each year except 2012. The high growth is due to the rapid growth of new subscribers globally, but the company’s ROE is significantly decreased.
The declined in ROE is due to the decline of operating ROA.
Netflix significantly increased their assets in the form of building and content library, and the growth rate of asset outpaced the growth rate of sales, result in the low asset turnover. IN the meantime, The NOPAT margin is also decreased because of the increased operating and content expenses.
The dupont also shows that Netflix has negative gains from its financial activities, but the trend is increasing shows that they become more efficient with the use of debt.
Using the top-down analysis to evaluate Netflix’s operating management, we see that Netflix increased their efficiency in procurement of contents and production process represented by decreasing rate of COGS, but the profits are offset by the high operating costs mainly from SG&A, amortization and depreciation expenses.
The high SG&A expenses on the other hand shows that Netflix is competing on a differentiation strategy.
For the investment analysis, the working capital management has improved in the form of longer Days Payable.
But the net Long-term Asset turnover is decreased because of increase in contents assets as well as infrastructures.
Netflix has increased the use of debt to support their business expansion. By the end of 2015, the company has the debt over equity ratio of 1.1,but shows good liquidity and interest coverage ratio.
by adding back depreciation and amortization, the EBITA Margin indicates the high profitability of Netflix’s business, and a sustainable growth rate of 5.5% at the end of 2015.