This document provides an overview of key concepts in Agile software development using the Scrum framework. It defines terms like product backlog, sprint planning, daily standup meetings, and velocity. It describes estimation techniques like planning poker and relative estimation in story points. It also outlines ceremonies like sprint planning, daily standups, sprint reviews and retrospectives which are used to manage the development process in Scrum.

1. AGILE SOFTWARE
DEVELOPMENT SCRUM
AHMED BADR
24 MAY 2022

2. AGENDA
• SCRUM
• AGILE RULES
• PRODUCT BACKLOG
• BACKLOG GROOMING
• PLANNING POKER
• RELATIVE ESTIMATION
• POINTS (ESTIMATES IN)
• WHAT IS THE DEFINITION OF
READY?
• USER STORY TEMPLATE
• Task Board
• Team Velocity
• Burn down Chart
• Daily meeting
• Iteration
• Timebox
• Sprint Planning
• Sprint Review
• Sprint Retrospective

3. SCRUM
• SCRUM IS A PROCESS FRAMEWORK USED TO MANAGE PRODUCT DEVELOPMENT
AND OTHER KNOWLEDGE WORK. SCRUM IS EMPIRICAL IN THAT IT PROVIDES A
MEANS FOR TEAMS TO ESTABLISH A HYPOTHESIS OF HOW THEY THINK
SOMETHING WORKS, TRY IT OUT, REFLECT ON THE EXPERIENCE, AND MAKE THE
APPROPRIATE ADJUSTMENTS. THAT IS, WHEN THE FRAMEWORK IS USED
PROPERLY. SCRUM IS STRUCTURED IN A WAY THAT ALLOWS TEAMS TO
INCORPORATE PRACTICES FROM OTHER FRAMEWORKS WHERE THEY MAKE SENSE
FOR THE TEAM’S CONTEXT.

4. AGILE RULES
• PRODUCT OWNER : THE PRODUCT OWNER IS A ROLE ON A PRODUCT DEVELOPMENT TEAM RESPONSIBLE FOR MANAGING
THE PRODUCT BACKLOG IN ORDER TO ACHIEVE THE DESIRED OUTCOME THAT A PRODUCT DEVELOPMENT TEAM SEEKS TO
ACCOMPLISH. KEY ACTIVITIES TO ACCOMPLISH THIS INCLUDE
• TEAM: A “TEAM” IN THE AGILE SENSE IS A SMALL GROUP OF PEOPLE, ASSIGNED TO THE SAME PROJECT OR EFFORT, NEARLY
ALL OF THEM ON A FULL-TIME BASIS. A SMALL MINORITY OF TEAM MEMBERS MAY BE PART-TIME CONTRIBUTORS, OR MAY
HAVE COMPETING RESPONSIBILITIES.
• SCRUM MASTER: THE SCRUM MASTER IS THE TEAM ROLE RESPONSIBLE FOR ENSURING THE TEAM LIVES AGILE VALUES AND
PRINCIPLES AND FOLLOWS THE PROCESSES AND PRACTICES THAT THE TEAM AGREED THEY WOULD USE. THE
RESPONSIBILITIES OF THIS ROLE INCLUDE:
• CLEARING OBSTACLES
• ESTABLISHING AN ENVIRONMENT WHERE THE TEAM CAN BE EFFECTIVE
• ADDRESSING TEAM DYNAMICS
• ENSURING A GOOD RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN THE TEAM AND PRODUCT OWNER AS WELL AS OTHERS OUTSIDE THE TEAM
• PROTECTING THE TEAM FROM OUTSIDE INTERRUPTIONS AND DISTRACTIONS.

5. PRODUCT BACKLOG
• A PRODUCT BACKLOG IS A LIST OF THE NEW FEATURES, CHANGES TO EXISTING FEATURES, BUG FIXES, INFRASTRUCTURE CHANGES OR OTHER
ACTIVITIES THAT A TEAM MAY DELIVER IN ORDER TO ACHIEVE A SPECIFIC OUTCOME.
• THE PRODUCT BACKLOG IS THE SINGLE AUTHORITATIVE SOURCE FOR THINGS THAT A TEAM WORKS ON. THAT MEANS THAT NOTHING GETS DONE
THAT ISN’T ON THE PRODUCT BACKLOG. CONVERSELY, THE PRESENCE OF A PRODUCT BACKLOG ITEM ON A PRODUCT BACKLOG DOES NOT
GUARANTEE THAT IT WILL BE DELIVERED. IT REPRESENTS AN OPTION THE TEAM HAS FOR DELIVERING A SPECIFIC OUTCOME RATHER THAN A
COMMITMENT.
• IT SHOULD BE CHEAP AND FAST TO ADD A PRODUCT BACKLOG ITEM TO THE PRODUCT BACKLOG, AND IT SHOULD BE EQUALLY AS EASY TO
REMOVE A PRODUCT BACKLOG ITEM THAT DOES NOT RESULT IN DIRECT PROGRESS TO ACHIEVING THE DESIRED OUTCOME OR ENABLE PROGRESS
TOWARD THE OUTCOME.
• PRODUCT BACKLOG ITEMS TAKE A VARIETY OF FORMATS, WITH USER STORIES BEING THE MOST COMMON. THE TEAM USING THE PRODUCT
BACKLOG DETERMINES THE FORMAT THEY CHOSE TO USE AND LOOK TO THE BACKLOG ITEMS AS REMINDERS OF THE ASPECTS OF A SOLUTION
THEY MAY WORK ON.
• PRODUCT BACKLOG ITEMS VARY IN SIZE AND EXTENT OF DETAIL BASED IN LARGE PART IN HOW SOON A TEAM WILL WORK ON THEM. THOSE THAT
A TEAM WILL WORK ON SOON SHOULD BE SMALL IN SIZE AND CONTAIN SUFFICIENT DETAIL FOR THE TEAM TO START WORK. THE TEAM MAY
ESTABLISH A DEFINITION OF READY TO INDICATE THEIR AGREEMENT ON THE INFORMATION THEY’D LIKE TO HAVE AVAILABLE IN ORDER TO
START WORKING ON A PRODUCT BACKLOG ITEM. PRODUCT BACKLOG ITEMS THAT ARE NOT SLATED FOR WORK MAY BE FAIRLY BROAD AND HAVE
LITTLE DETAIL.

7. BACKLOG GROOMING
• BACKLOG REFINEMENT (FORMERLY KNOWN AS BACKLOG GROOMING) IS WHEN THE PRODUCT OWNER AND SOME,
OR ALL, OF THE REST OF THE TEAM REVIEW ITEMS ON THE BACKLOG TO ENSURE THE BACKLOG CONTAINS THE
APPROPRIATE ITEMS, THAT THEY ARE PRIORITIZED, AND THAT THE ITEMS AT THE TOP OF THE BACKLOG ARE
READY FOR DELIVERY. THIS ACTIVITY OCCURS ON A REGULAR BASIS AND MAY BE AN OFFICIALLY SCHEDULED
MEETING OR AN ONGOING ACTIVITY. SOME OF THE ACTIVITIES THAT OCCUR DURING THIS REFINEMENT OF THE
BACKLOG INCLUDE:
• REMOVING USER STORIES THAT NO LONGER APPEAR RELEVANT
• CREATING NEW USER STORIES IN RESPONSE TO NEWLY DISCOVERED NEEDS
• RE-ASSESSING THE RELATIVE PRIORITY OF STORIES
• ASSIGNING ESTIMATES TO STORIES WHICH HAVE YET TO RECEIVE ONE
• CORRECTING ESTIMATES IN LIGHT OF NEWLY DISCOVERED INFORMATION
• SPLITTING USER STORIES WHICH ARE HIGH PRIORITY BUT TOO COARSE GRAINED TO FIT IN AN
UPCOMING ITERATION

8. PLANNING POKER
• A PLAYFUL APPROACH TO ESTIMATION, USED BY MANY AGILE TEAMS.
• THE TEAM MEETS IN PRESENCE OF THE CUSTOMER OR PRODUCT
OWNER. AROUND THE TABLE, EACH TEAM MEMBER HOLDS A SET OF
PLAYING CARDS, BEARING NUMERICAL VALUES APPROPRIATE
FOR POINTS ESTIMATION OF A USER STORY.
• THE PRODUCT OWNER BRIEFLY STATES THE INTENT AND VALUE OF A
STORY. EACH MEMBER OF THE DEVELOPMENT TEAM SILENTLY PICKS AN
ESTIMATE AND READIES THE CORRESPONDING CARD, FACE DOWN.
WHEN EVERYONE HAS TAKEN THEIR PICK, THE CARDS ARE TURNED FACE
UP AND THE ESTIMATES ARE READ ALOUD.
• THE TWO (OR MORE) TEAM MEMBERS WHO GAVE THE HIGH AND LOW
ESTIMATE JUSTIFY THEIR REASONING. AFTER BRIEF DISCUSSION, THE
TEAM MAY SEEK CONVERGENCE TOWARD A CONSENSUS ESTIMATE BY
PLAYING ONE OR MORE FURTHER ROUNDS.

9. RELATIVE ESTIMATION
• RELATIVE ESTIMATION IS ONE OF THE SEVERAL DISTINCT FLAVORS
OF ESTIMATION USED IN AGILE TEAMS, AND CONSISTS OF ESTIMATING TASKS
OR USER STORIES, NOT SEPARATELY AND IN ABSOLUTE UNITS OF TIME, BUT BY
COMPARISON OR BY GROUPING OF ITEMS OF EQUIVALENT DIFFICULTY.
• AGILE ESTIMATION – YOUTUBE
• AGILE ESTIMATING AND PLANNING - YOUTUBE

10. POINTS (ESTIMATES IN)
• AGILE TEAMS GENERALLY PREFER TO EXPRESS ESTIMATES IN UNITS OTHER THAN THE TIME-
HONORED “MAN-DAY” OR “MAN-HOUR.” POSSIBLY THE MOST WIDESPREAD UNIT IS “STORY
POINTS.”
• ONE OF THE CHIEF REASONS IS THE USE OF VELOCITY FOR PLANNING PURPOSES. “VELOCITY,”
IN THE SENSE AGILE TEAMS USE THE TERM, HAS NO PREFERRED UNIT OF MEASUREMENT, IT IS
A DIMENSIONLESS QUANTITY. VELOCITY ALLOWS TEAMS TO COMPUTE THE EXPECTED
REMAINING DURATION OF THE PROJECT, AS A NUMBER OF ITERATIONS, EACH ITERATION
DELIVERING SOME AMOUNT OF FEATURES.
• ANOTHER IMPORTANT REASON HAS TO DO WITH THE SOCIAL AND PSYCHOLOGICAL ASPECTS
OF ESTIMATION: USING UNITS SUCH AS STORY POINTS, EMPHASIZING RELATIVE DIFFICULTY
OVER ABSOLUTE DURATION, RELIEVES SOME OF THE TENSIONS THAT OFTEN ARISE BETWEEN
DEVELOPERS AND MANAGERS AROUND ESTIMATION: FOR INSTANCE, ASKING DEVELOPERS FOR
AN ESTIMATE THEN HOLDING THEM ACCOUNTABLE AS IF IT HAD BEEN A FIRM COMMITMENT.

11. WHAT IS THE DEFINITION OF READY?
• AS IN THE “DEFINITION OF DONE”, IN THE DEFINITION OF READY, THE TEAM
MAKES EXPLICIT AND VISIBLE THE CRITERIA (GENERALLY BASED ON
THE INVEST MATRIX) THAT A USER STORY MUST MEET PRIOR TO BEING ACCEPTED
INTO THE UPCOMING ITERATION.

12. USER STORY TEMPLATE
• A USER STORY TEMPLATE IS A COMMON FORMAT USED TO WRITE USER STORIES THAT HELPS YOU INCLUDE KEY
PIECES OF INFORMATION ABOUT THAT USER STORY.
• ONE PARTICULAR TEMPLATE, OFTEN REFERRED TO AS “AS A… I WANT TO… SO THAT…” IS THE MOST COMMONLY
RECOMMENDED AIDS (OFTEN OUTGROWN ONCE PAST THE NOVICE STAGE) FOR TEAMS AND PRODUCT OWNERS
STARTING TO WORK WITH USER STORIES AND PRODUCT BACKLOG ITEMS IN GENERAL:
• AS A (WHO WANTS TO ACCOMPLISH SOMETHING)
• I WANT TO (WHAT THEY WANT TO ACCOMPLISH)
• SO THAT (WHY THEY WANT TO ACCOMPLISH THAT THING)
• AN EXAMPLE:
• AS A BANK CUSTOMER
• I WANT TO WITHDRAW MONEY FROM AN ATM
• SO THAT I’M NOT CONSTRAINED BY OPENING HOURS OR LINES AT THE TELLER’S

14. TASK BOARD
• IN ITS MOST BASIC FORM, A TASK
BOARD CAN BE DRAWN ON A
WHITEBOARD OR EVEN A SECTION
OF WALL. USING ELECTRICAL TAPE
OR A DRY ERASE PEN, THE BOARD
IS DIVIDED INTO THREE COLUMNS
LABELED “TO DO”, “IN PROGRESS”
AND “DONE”. STICKY NOTES OR
INDEX CARDS, ONE FOR EACH
TASK THE TEAM IS WORKING ON,
ARE PLACED IN THE COLUMNS
REFLECTING THE CURRENT STATUS
OF THE TASKS.

15. TEAM VELOCITY
• VELOCITY IS A MEASURE OF THE AMOUNT OF WORK A TEAM CAN TACKLE
DURING A SINGLE SPRINT AND IS THE KEY METRIC IN SCRUM. VELOCITY IS
CALCULATED AT THE END OF THE SPRINT BY TOTALLING THE POINTS FOR ALL
FULLY COMPLETED USER STORIES. - SCRUMINC
• TYPICALLY, VELOCITY IS CALCULATED BASED ON THE WORK THAT HAS
PREVIOUSLY BEEN DONE. IF A TEAM IS NEW, THE VELOCITY FOR THE
FIRST SPRINT IS ROUGHLY CALCULATED DURING THE FIRST SPRINT AND IS FINE-
TUNED AND RENDERED MORE ACCURATE DURING SUBSEQUENT SPRINTS. A
GOOD AVERAGE WOULD REQUIRE A REVIEW OF AT LEAST THREE SPRINTS.

16. BURNDOWN CHART
• THE TEAM DISPLAYS, SOMEWHERE ON
A WALL OF THE PROJECT ROOM, A
LARGE GRAPH RELATING THE
QUANTITY OF WORK REMAINING (ON
THE VERTICAL AXIS) AND THE TIME
ELAPSED SINCE THE START OF THE
PROJECT (ON THE HORIZONTAL,
SHOWING FUTURE AS WELL AS PAST).
THIS CONSTITUTES AN “INFORMATION
RADIATOR“, PROVIDED IT IS UPDATED
REGULARLY. TWO VARIANTS EXIST,
DEPENDING ON WHETHER THE
AMOUNT GRAPHED IS FOR THE WORK
REMAINING IN THE ITERATION
(“SPRINT BURNDOWN”) OR MORE
COMMONLY THE ENTIRE PROJECT
(“PRODUCT BURNDOWN”).

17. DAILY MEETING (THREE QUESTIONS)
THE DAILY MEETING IS STRUCTURED AROUND
SOME VARIANT OF THE FOLLOWING THREE
QUESTIONS:
• WHAT HAVE YOU COMPLETED SINCE THE LAST
MEETING?
• WHAT DO YOU PLAN TO COMPLETE BY THE NEXT
MEETING?
• WHAT IS GETTING IN YOUR WAY?

18. ITERATION
• AN ITERATION, IN THE CONTEXT OF AN AGILE PROJECT, IS A TIMEBOX DURING WHICH DEVELOPMENT TAKES PLACE,
THE DURATION OF WHICH:
• MAY VARY FROM PROJECT TO PROJECT, USUALLY BETWEEN 1 AND 4 WEEKS
• IS IN MOST CASES FIXED FOR THE DURATION OF A GIVEN PROJECT
• A KEY FEATURE OF AGILE APPROACHES IS THE UNDERLYING ASSUMPTION THAT A PROJECT CONSISTS EXCUSIVELY
OF A SEQUENCE OF ITERATIONS, POSSIBLY WITH THE EXCEPTION OF A VERY BRIEF “VISION AND PLANNING” PHASE
PRIOR TO DEVELOPMENT, AND A SIMILARLY BRIEF “CLOSURE” PHASE AFTER IT.
• IN GENERAL ITERATIONS ARE ALIGNED WITH CALENDAR WEEKS, OFTEN STARTING ON MONDAYS AND ENDING ON
FRIDAYS; THIS IS MORE A MATTER OF CONVENIENCE THAN AN EXPLICIT RECOMMENDATION AND MANY TEAMS
ADOPT DIFFERENT CONVENTIONS.
• THE FIXED LENGTH OF ITERATIONS GIVES TEAMS A SIMPLE WAY TO OBTAIN, BASED ON VELOCITY AND THE
AMOUNT OF WORK REMAINING, A USUALLY ACCURATE (THOUGH NOT VERY PRECISE) ESTIMATION OF THE
PROJECT’S REMAINING DURATION.

19. TIMEBOX
• A TIMEBOX IS A PREVIOUSLY AGREED PERIOD OF TIME DURING WHICH A PERSON OR A TEAM
WORKS STEADILY TOWARDS COMPLETION OF SOME GOAL. RATHER THAN ALLOW WORK TO
CONTINUE UNTIL THE GOAL IS REACHED, AND EVALUATING THE TIME TAKEN, THE TIMEBOX
APPROACH CONSISTS OF STOPPING WORK WHEN THE TIME LIMIT IS REACHED AND
EVALUATING WHAT WAS ACCOMPLISHED.
• TIMEBOXES CAN BE USED AT VARYING TIME SCALES. THE “POMODORO
TECHNIQUE” ORGANIZES PERSONAL WORK AROUND 25-MINUTE TIMEBOXES. IN A COMPLETELY
DIFFERENT DOMAIN “SPEED DATING” IS KNOWN FOR ITS SEVEN-MINUTE TIMEBOXES. TIME
SCALES RANGING FROM ONE DAY TO SEVERAL MONTHS HAVE BEEN USED.
• THE CRITICAL RULE OF TIMEBOXED WORK IS THAT WORK SHOULD STOP AT THE END OF THE
TIMEBOX, AND REVIEW PROGRESS: HAS THE GOAL BEEN MET, OR PARTIALLY MET IF IT
INCLUDED MULTIPLE TASKS?

20. SPRINT PLANNING

21. SPRINT
• THE SPRINT IS A TIMEBOX OF ONE MONTH OR LESS DURING WHICH THE TEAM
PRODUCES A POTENTIALLY SHIPPABLE PRODUCT INCREMENT. TYPICAL
CHARACTERISTICS OF SPRINTS:
• MAINTAIN A CONSISTENT DURATION THROUGHOUT A DEVELOPMENT EFFORT
• A NEW SPRINT IMMEDIATELY FOLLOWS THE CONCLUSION OF THE PREVIOUS
SPRINT
• START DATE AND END DATE OF SPRINT ARE FIXED

22. SPRINT PLANNING
• SPRINT PLANNING IS AN EVENT IN THE SCRUM FRAMEWORK WHERE THE TEAM
DETERMINES THE PRODUCT BACKLOG ITEMS THEY WILL WORK ON DURING
THAT SPRINT AND DISCUSSES THEIR INITIAL PLAN FOR COMPLETING
THOSE PRODUCT BACKLOG ITEMS.
• TEAMS MAY FIND IT HELPFUL TO ESTABLISH A SPRINT GOAL AND USE THAT AS
THE BASIS BY WHICH THEY DETERMINE WHICH PRODUCT BACKLOG ITEMS THEY
WORK ON DURING THAT SPRINT.
• WHEN DOES SPRINT PLANNING TAKE PLACE?
• SPRINT PLANNING OCCURS ON THE FIRST DAY OF A NEW SPRINT.

23. HOW IS SPRINT PLANNING STRUCTURED?
• SPRINT PLANNING IS TYPICALLY SPLIT INTO TWO PARTS:
• PART 1 – SCOPE
• THE TEAM SELECTS WHICH ITEMS FROM A PRIORITIZED LIST OF READY PRODUCT BACKLOG
ITEMS (USUALLY EXPRESSED AS USER STORIES) THEY FORECAST THEY WILL BE ABLE
• PART 2 – PLAN
• THE TEAM DISCUSSES IN MORE DETAIL HOW THEY WILL DELIVER THE SELECTED PRODUCT
BACKLOG ITEMS. THIS MAY (BUT DOES NOT HAVE TO) INCLUDE IDENTIFYING TASKS FOR THE
PRODUCT BACKLOG ITEMS, WHETHER THERE ARE ANY DEPENDENCIES BETWEEN THE ITEMS,
AND SIGNING UP FOR THE INITIAL PRODUCT BACKLOG ITEMS THAT EACH TEAM MEMBER
WORKS ON .
• TO COMPLETE DURING THE SPRINT.

25. SPRINT 0
• SPRINT 0 CAN BE A GREAT MECHANISM IN AGILE TRANSFORMATIONS NOT TO ONLY ESTABLISH NEW TEAMS, BUT ALSO TO RESET EXISTING ONES UNDERGOING A
SIGNIFICANT TEAM ALTERING EVENT. YOU MAY HAVE ASSUMED THAT THE KEY FOCUS OF A SPRINT 0 IS TO GENERATE A DETAILED INITIAL BACKLOG, PLAN FOR
THE FIRST COUPLE OF SPRINTS AND DECIDE WHEN YOUR CEREMONIES OCCUR. I HAVE COME TO REALIZE THAT IN FACT SPRINT 0 SHOULD BE DEFINED AS A
SMALL SEGMENT WHERE TEAMS COLLABORATE TO PREPARE THEMSELVES FOR THE UPCOMING DELIVERY JOURNEY. IN ADDITION TO THE BACKLOG AND
ROADMAP, ANY ITEMS THAT GET YOU READY TO START WORKING TOGETHER COHESIVELY SHOULD BE INCLUDED. FOR THOSE LOOKING TO EMBARK ON THEIR
OWN SPRINT 0, I WOULD RECOMMEND COVERING THE FOLLOWING TOPICS:
• 1. PRODUCT ROADMAP AND INITIAL BACKLOG.
• 2. DELIVERY METRICS AND KEY PERFORMANCE INDICATORS THAT CONNECT TO BUSINESS OBJECTIVES.
• 3. STAKEHOLDER IDENTIFICATION.
• 4. TEAM BONDING.
• 5. WORKING AGREEMENTS.
• 6. DEFINITIONS OF READY AND DONE.
• 7. CEREMONY CALENDAR.
• 8. AGREEMENT OF COMMUNICATION AND COLLABORATION MECHANISMS, INCLUDING WORK STATE MANAGEMENT TOOLING, CHAT FORUMS, CONFLICT
RESOLUTION METHODS AND E-MAIL USAGE.

26. SPRINT REVIEW
• AT THE END OF THE SPRINT, THE ENTIRE TEAM (INCLUDING PRODUCT OWNER)
REVIEWS THE RESULTS OF THE SPRINT WITH STAKEHOLDERS OF THE PRODUCT.
THE PURPOSE OF THIS DISCUSSION IS TO DISCUSS, DEMONSTRATE, AND
POTENTIALLY GIVE THE STAKEHOLDERS A CHANCE TO USE, THE INCREMENT IN
ORDER TO GET FEEDBACK. THE SPRINT REVIEW IS NOT INTENDED TO PROVIDE A
STATUS REPORT. FEEDBACK FROM THE SPRINT REVIEW GETS PLACED INTO THE
PRODUCT BACKLOG FOR FUTURE

27. SPRINT RETROSPECTIVE
• AT THE END OF THE SPRINT FOLLOWING THE SPRINT REVIEW THE TEAM
(INCLUDING PRODUCT OWNER) SHOULD REFLECT UPON HOW THINGS WENT
DURING THE PREVIOUS SPRINT AND IDENTIFY ADJUSTMENTS THEY COULD MAKE
GOING FORWARD. THE RESULT OF THIS RETROSPECTIVE IS AT LEAST ONE
ACTION ITEM INCLUDED ON THE FOLLOWING SPRINT’S SPRINT BACKLOG.

29. BACKUP SLIDES

30. VELOCITY
• AT THE END OF EACH ITERATION, THE TEAM ADDS UP
EFFORT ESTIMATES ASSOCIATED WITH USER STORIES THAT
WERE COMPLETED DURING THAT ITERATION. THIS TOTAL IS CALLED VELOCITY.
• KNOWING VELOCITY, THE TEAM CAN COMPUTE (OR REVISE) AN ESTIMATE OF
HOW LONG THE PROJECT WILL TAKE TO COMPLETE, BASED ON THE ESTIMATES
ASSOCIATED WITH REMAINING USER STORIES AND ASSUMING THAT VELOCITY
OVER THE REMAINING ITERATIONS WILL REMAIN APPROXIMATELY THE SAME.
THIS IS GENERALLY AN ACCURATE PREDICTION, EVEN THOUGH RARELY A
PRECISE ONE.