With the beginning of the millennium, Most of the world countries started to turn toward the natural gas as an alternative energy resource instead of crude oil and harmless resource for the environment. Global conflict signs started to shape because of the countries’ interests encounter - specially, in the near and middle east regions. In this presentation, I will try to explain these signs by dividing the related countries to three categories: 1- Consuming Countries. 2- Producing Countries. 3- Transit Countries.

1. The Global Natural Gas Pre-Conflict
Overview
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2. With the beginning of the millennium,
Most of the world countries started to turn
toward the natural gas as an alternative
energy resource instead of crude oil and
harmless resource for the environment.
Global conflict signs started to shape
because of the countries’ interests
encounter - specially, in the near and
middle east regions.
In this presentation, I will try to explain
these signs by dividing the related
countries to three categories:
1- Consuming Countries.
2- Producing Countries.
3- Transit Countries.
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3. European Union (Consumer):
- In 2015, EU’s natural gas consumption
estimated about 16 Trillion Cubic Feet*.
About 40% of its consumption is imported
from non-EU countries.
- By increasing dependency on imports from
Russia, along with the high costs of LNG**
imports, promoted EU to seek for alternative
sources of natural gas and without secure the
sources of energy, EU’s future is limited.
- In 2020, the contribution of renewable
energy in EU estimated 20% of EU’s future
energy resources, which cannot make EU a
self-sufficient.
* 1 Cubic Meter = 35.32 Cubic Feet
** Liquefied Natural Gas
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4. To meet EU demand supply gap, there were three main pipelines projects:
TAP, TANAP & Nabucco pipelines to import the natural gas from Caspian sea countries and
middle east countries. These projects are not implemented yet because of lack of financing and
uncertainty situation in the transit countries.
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5. Significant discoveries in the Eastern Mediterranean Sea could make the six costal
countries as a new suppliers to EU.
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6. Russia (Producer):
The second biggest reserve holder &
producer, number one exporter of natural gas
worldwide.
160 bcm out of 190 bcm of Russian natural
gas exports go to EU in 2015 according a
study by Bank of Finland – 2017.
which means 80% of natural gas revenues
come from EU.
- According to Russian Federal Treasury
(2014), the oil and gas revenues contribute
51.28% of Russian federal revenues.
- According these numbers, we can realize
how much Russia will affected if EU stops
importing Russian natural gas, and explain
what Russia will do to prevent any efforts to
deliver natural gas to EU from other
providers.
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7. Qatar (producer):
The second exporter and third producer & reserve holder of the world, but 90% of its
exports as LNG, which is less attractive because of high costs of production and
shipping.
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8. - EU is a very attractive market among
Qatar, so it has planned to deliver its
natural gas to Europe by pipelines since
2002 in coordination with Turkey.
- Since 2002, Qatar has fostered many
pipelines constructing agreements between
the transit countries in the Near and middle
East region to construct natural gas pipeline
links Qatar cross Saudia Arabia, Jordan,
Syria and Turkey toward European Union.
- But within the end of 2010 the
construction agreements had not
implemented completely because of
inconsistency interests with Russia and
Saudia Arabia.
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9. Iran (Producer):
The biggest reserve holder of the world, but
these reserves are not invested efficiently
because of the international economic
sanctions against it.
- Now Iran exports most of its production
toward China as LNG .
- Iran has short term plan to construct
pipeline toward China cross Pakistan and -
Long term plan to construct gas pipeline
toward the Mediterranean sea cross Iraq and
Syria to sit itself free of the pressures of
foreign community , that is why Iran involved
directly inside the war in Syria and Iraq.
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10. Turkmenistan (Producer):
The fourth biggest reserve holder of the world, but
these reserves are not invested sufficiently because
of the limitation of efficient markets:
1- China is not enough attractive market because
of the competition with cheap Russian natural gas
to China.
2- India is not recent possible market because of
the insecurity situation in Afghanistan.
3- EU cross Iran is not an attractive solution for
Europeans because Iran’s alliance with Russia and
the sanctions.
4- EU cross Azerbaijan, that is the preferable route
for the Europeans but Russia can stop this pipeline
anytime by revive Karabakh conflict between
Armenia (Russian ally) & Azerbaijan (Transit
country).
5- Russia as clearinghouse of natural gas between
central Asia and Europe (That what is existing
now).
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11. Turkey (Transit Country):
- Turkey tries to be the clearinghouse of
central Asia and Near & Middle East
countries’ natural gas that will pass to EU.
- Being the clearinghouse of Europeans’
natural gas supplies will give Turkey a great
negotiation advantage to join the European
Union.
- As a result of this image, Turkey involved
in the Syrian conflict and will always
influence political happenings in the
surrounded region, as long as the possibility
on the table to be the natural gas
clearinghouse.
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12. Egypt (Transit Country):
- Egypt also want to be the clearinghouse
of east Mediterranean sea discoveries to
supply its’ dormant liquefied natural gas
plants and export natural gas to EU as
LNG (Egypt has already signed
agreements with Cyprus & Israel to
import their natural gas production – ME
News service@2017).
- This plan puts Egypt encounter with
Turkey.
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13. Saudia Arabia (Affected
&Transit Country):
- As the biggest producer of oil worldwide
(8 to 10 million barrels per day), and as
the rapid growing of natural gas market
that will effect on the global oil market
and already oil prices, which threatens
Saudia Arabia.
- This scenario put Saudia Arabia’s
interests encounter Qatar & Turkey’s
interests, that pushed Saudia to prevent
any natural gas pipeline constructing
cross its’ land and its’ allies‘ lands.
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14. Syria (Transit Country):
Syria is the victim of natural gas
destroyed by two projects:
1- The Iranian project to link itself with
the Mediterranean sea by pipeline cross
Iraq & Syria to export its’ natural gas
reserves toward EU.
2- Qatar project to export its’ natural gas
reserves toward EU by pipeline cross the
middle east.
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15. “
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Final notes:
 HOLDING ALL THE CONFLICT ASPECTS NEEDS MORE THAN A
PRESENTATION.
 THERE ARE OTHER AFFECTED COUNTRIES ARE NOT MENTIONED IN THIS
PRESENTATION LIKE: UKRAINE (CIVIL WAR), GEORGIA (SOUTH AUSETIA),
AZERBAIJAN (KARABAKH CONFLICT), IRAQ, JORDAN AND CYPRUS… ETC
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