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Affintus
So remind me again…why did we hire this guy?
October 3, 2012 | Deborah L. Kerr, Ph.D.




               ©2012 Affintus Scientific Hiring, LLC
Affintus Scientific Hiring




                     Optimizing Human Capital
                                Streamline decision making
                                Enhance productivity through people
                                Match job and company to people
                                Better people data, better business
                                 results
Agenda
     Hiring success results
     Resume challenge
     Science and hiring
     Three small changes
     Measures + Value
Hiring Results

   48% of new hires fail to meet performance
    targets within 18 months
   19% will become high performers
   4 in 10 promotions underperform or fail
FACT         FEW NEW HIRES BECOME HIGH
             PERFORMERS




       19%



                               Everyone Else
                               High Performers



                   81%
FACT



48%    OF NEW HIRES FAIL TO MEET
       TARGETS WITHIN
       18 MONTHS
FACT         MANY RESUMES CONTAIN
             ERRONEOUS INFORMATION




       44%
                                     accurate
                                     inaccurate
                         56%
Challenges
     Finding the right candidate takes too long.
     Employers settle for “good enough”.
     Hiring = HR + managers.
     Job seekers are unhappy, too.
Hiring is hard…
Resumes
                               Information is self reported.
                               …and hard to verify.
                               Information error rate is high.
                               Experience ≠ Success




https://www.smartrecruiters.com/news/survey-shows-hiring-is-broken-smartrecruiters-releases-new-hiring-platform-for-the-social-enterprise/
DECISIONS BASED ON INTERVIEWS HAVE ABOUT THE
FACT   SAME SUCCESS RATE AS
       FLIPPING A COIN

             Validity      Source of candidate information


                 1.0

                 0.9

                 0.8

                 0.7           Cognitive Ability + Behavioral / Personality .67
                               Cognitive Ability + Structured Interview .63
                 0.6           Cognitive Ability + Work Sample .60
                               Work Sample Tests .54
                 0.5
                               Cognitive tests .51
                               Structured Interviews .51
                               Job Knowledge .48
                 0.4
                               Personality Test .40
                 0.3           References .26
                               Unstructured Interviews .18
                 0.2
                               Years of Job Experience .18
                 0.1           Years of Education .10
                               Interests .10
Better (and Faster) Hiring in 3 Steps
   Reduce reliance on the resume
   Analyze your top performers
   Structure the interview
Resume
  Figure out what is important in the job.
  Collect just the information you want and
   need.
  Remember: the resume is self-reported
   information.
Analyze Your Top Performers
   Use a valid assessment to identify key
    success characteristics.
   Focus on strengths of high performers.
Structure the Interview
   Use behavioral interview questions.
   Rate each answer using a scale.
   Train interviewers to take notes.
   Remember the limits of an interview.
Your company will thank you.


                         50%




        10%
Internal Process: Time to Hire


Formulas              TF = RR – OD              Time to acceptance
                      TS = RR – SD              Time to start

      TF =   Time until offer acceptance
      TS =   Time until new hire starts work
      RR =   Date requisition received
      OD =   Date offer accepted
      SD =   Date new hire starts
Mission: Productive Workforce


Formula                               PW = HC – (%pNH)


   PW =     Productive Workforce
   HC =     Head Count
   %pNH =   New Hire Productivity Estimate
Affintus
Great people data. Great business results.
Deborah L. Kerr, Ph.D. | +1 866 429 4351 | info@affintus.com

       https://www.facebook.com/Affintus

       https://twitter.com/affintus
       #affintus
       http://www.youtube.com/user/affintus

       Visit Our Blog!
       http://affintus.com/blog-affintus/


                ©2012 Affintus Scientific Hiring, LLC

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Affintus why did we hire this guy v 2

  • 1. Affintus So remind me again…why did we hire this guy? October 3, 2012 | Deborah L. Kerr, Ph.D. ©2012 Affintus Scientific Hiring, LLC
  • 2. Affintus Scientific Hiring Optimizing Human Capital  Streamline decision making  Enhance productivity through people  Match job and company to people  Better people data, better business results
  • 3. Agenda  Hiring success results  Resume challenge  Science and hiring  Three small changes  Measures + Value
  • 4. Hiring Results  48% of new hires fail to meet performance targets within 18 months  19% will become high performers  4 in 10 promotions underperform or fail
  • 5. FACT FEW NEW HIRES BECOME HIGH PERFORMERS 19% Everyone Else High Performers 81%
  • 6. FACT 48% OF NEW HIRES FAIL TO MEET TARGETS WITHIN 18 MONTHS
  • 7. FACT MANY RESUMES CONTAIN ERRONEOUS INFORMATION 44% accurate inaccurate 56%
  • 8. Challenges  Finding the right candidate takes too long.  Employers settle for “good enough”.  Hiring = HR + managers.  Job seekers are unhappy, too.
  • 10. Resumes  Information is self reported.  …and hard to verify.  Information error rate is high.  Experience ≠ Success https://www.smartrecruiters.com/news/survey-shows-hiring-is-broken-smartrecruiters-releases-new-hiring-platform-for-the-social-enterprise/
  • 11. DECISIONS BASED ON INTERVIEWS HAVE ABOUT THE FACT SAME SUCCESS RATE AS FLIPPING A COIN Validity Source of candidate information 1.0 0.9 0.8 0.7 Cognitive Ability + Behavioral / Personality .67 Cognitive Ability + Structured Interview .63 0.6 Cognitive Ability + Work Sample .60 Work Sample Tests .54 0.5 Cognitive tests .51 Structured Interviews .51 Job Knowledge .48 0.4 Personality Test .40 0.3 References .26 Unstructured Interviews .18 0.2 Years of Job Experience .18 0.1 Years of Education .10 Interests .10
  • 12. Better (and Faster) Hiring in 3 Steps  Reduce reliance on the resume  Analyze your top performers  Structure the interview
  • 13. Resume  Figure out what is important in the job.  Collect just the information you want and need.  Remember: the resume is self-reported information.
  • 14. Analyze Your Top Performers  Use a valid assessment to identify key success characteristics.  Focus on strengths of high performers.
  • 15. Structure the Interview  Use behavioral interview questions.  Rate each answer using a scale.  Train interviewers to take notes.  Remember the limits of an interview.
  • 16. Your company will thank you. 50% 10%
  • 17. Internal Process: Time to Hire Formulas TF = RR – OD Time to acceptance TS = RR – SD Time to start  TF = Time until offer acceptance  TS = Time until new hire starts work  RR = Date requisition received  OD = Date offer accepted  SD = Date new hire starts
  • 18. Mission: Productive Workforce Formula PW = HC – (%pNH)  PW = Productive Workforce  HC = Head Count  %pNH = New Hire Productivity Estimate
  • 19. Affintus Great people data. Great business results. Deborah L. Kerr, Ph.D. | +1 866 429 4351 | info@affintus.com https://www.facebook.com/Affintus https://twitter.com/affintus #affintus http://www.youtube.com/user/affintus Visit Our Blog! http://affintus.com/blog-affintus/ ©2012 Affintus Scientific Hiring, LLC

Editor's Notes

  1. Thank you, Andy and thank you to everyone – all of us at Affintus are excited that you joined us to talk about talent selection – what works, what doesn’t, and what you can do to help hiring managers make the best talent decisions.
  2. With all the upheaval of the last five years, organizations want to make sure they are doing all they can to optimize their human capital. Despite the unemployment figures, most executives report they are having a hard time finding the right employees and there is more interest from managers who want to make more accurate people decisions.You know the drill – post a job, recruit in all the right places, and get a stack of 100 resumes. Hiring managers tell us they want to speed up decision making so they do not lose top candidates to competitors and they want to have more confidence in the data they use to make their hiring decisions.They want to know which people in their applicant pool is most likely to be a star performer and improve their teams business results. Think about your employees in your organization – are there a few you would like to clone because they are so successful in their jobs? That’s what managers say they want – more people like their top performers.
  3. Hiring success means selecting employees who will be high performers in your organization. POLL QUESTION #1
  4. Over the last 60 years, there has been a lot of research into how to figure out who in your applicant pool will make the best employee.When we measure results over time we find that our results are not what we want them to be.
  5. Over the last 60 years, there has been a lot of research into how to figure out who in your applicant pool will make the best employee.When we measure results over time we find that our results are not what we want them to be. Not very many new hires become high performers – the ones who consistently meet or surpass their targets. The ones you want to clone.And we know that 4 out of 10 promotions underperform or fail in their new positions. 
  6. Average Resume accuracyThe resume is a good marketing piece for the candidate – it tells you where they have worked (which you can check) and it gives you some idea of the work they have been responsible for.The resume does not tell you if the work they have done in the past relates to the work at your company and it does not indicate the quality of the workA 2012 survey of 2,028 LinkedIn users found that 22% of respondents have or have previously had a profile on the networking site, of which 34% said their LinkedIn page was up to date, 46% said it was out of date and 20% no longer used it. - http://www.personneltoday.com/Articles/03/09/2012/58766/Report-questions-reliability-of-LinkedIn-profiles-as-recruitment.htm
  7. And it is not that HR and hiring managers aren’t working hard. And it’s not that job seekers aren’t doing their best to connect with employers and market their abilities. Finding the right candidate takes too long: 55% of respondents involved in hiring at their company reported that filling a vacant position typically takes longer than 60 days, and 43% reported that open positions aren’t filled within their required timeframeEmployers settle for good enough: almost half of respondents involved in hiring report settling for a candidate that was just “good enough” because finding the right candidate took too longmore than 60% of respondents, job-seekers and employers said that their experience with the hiring process has been less than positiveInefficient hiring financially impacts more than HR: 70% of people surveyed indicated that their company includes at least three employees in each hiring decisionOrganizations haven’t prioritized the hiring process as a “must fix.” Leveraging technology to match supply and demand is a no-brainer.
  8. The impact of a hiring mistake is harder on small and medium business.Three out of four business owners report they have made a hiring mistake that cost them thousands of dollars (and many hours) to fix. Some have even made the mistake more than once, like the exec who hired and fired his best friend - twice. True story... When so many resumes contain erroneous information and and hiring based on interviews has about the same success rate as flipping a coin, it is hard for managers to learn what they need to know to make a good decision. We have known for more than 30 years that selecting someone who matches your culture and has the right personality and natural attitude for the work is the best way to make a talent decision. You know companies who hire this way - think Southwest Airlines - They figured out what skills and abilities make their star performers shine. They have designed ways to identify which people have the qualities, then they teach them job duties after hire.”POLL QUESTION # 2
  9. The practice of hiring people based on experience has been studied and the results show that a candidate’s experience is not predictive of success in your position. One 2002 study of 38,000 new employees in high turnover jobs found that, at the end of the first year, 57 percent of those hired who had experience were gone from their jobs. Only 28 percent of those who were hired without prior experience but who received training had left the job.
  10. When we look at what really predicts success on the job, it isn’t a skill set… it is the match between the candidate and your company and job.Validity is a measure of how accurately the source “predicts” or relates to future success on the job. 0 – at the bottom – means there is no relationship between that information and future success; 1 – at the top- means there is a perfect correlation between the information and future success.MIKE MICHALOWICZ wrote a column last years in the Wall St Journal about what he has learned that has improved his hiring success.My best employee of all time was nicknamed Shaq. While his genetic gifts would have never landed him a spot on the New Jersey Nets, he worked for my company as a computer forensic examiner. When I hired him, Shaq was barely qualified to use a computer, let alone conduct detailed forensic examinations on hard drives that later had to stand up in court and pass the rigors of cross examination. So why did I take him on? I hired Shaq because during his interview he clearly demonstrated that he was intelligentand seemed to come out on the "glass half full" side of things during stressful situations. Because of these qualities, within three months of joining my company he was out in the field, conducting examinations on his own. Shaq had absorbed the training so fast that within a year of his hire he was testifying in court and handling our most complicated cases.One of Affintus clients, a small software company, needed to hire top technical support staff quickly – their software is used by small businesses around the world and they wanted to keep the customers they have by providing them good service. The manager of tech support started using Affintus to hire and for one of the jobs, he found that his “top” candidate had almost no technical skill… in fact, he had a biology background. Richard’s boss said they couldn’t possibly hire someone with no experience. Richard talked him into letting him hire the guy…who turned out to be their top service rep for the next three quarters – he learned the job fast and they quickly got the benefit of a good hire. Later, Richard found that his employees were getting promoted and poached by other departments who saw their successes.
  11. With all of the challenges facing HR and hiring managers when it comes to identifying the right employees, there are some immediate steps that will help.
  12. Identify the requirements of the job – look at top performers as a guide. If people need to be outgoing, select out-going people – if not, then a bubbly personality is not important – we all respond better to people who are like us, so the looking at your top performers can be a big help to managersAnalyze the basic elements of your organizational culture, such as whether the organization values innovation or has a formal decision making structure and chain of command. What results do you want the employee to achieve in the job? Be specific. For example, a accounting job requires strict procedures to be followed - this wouldn’t be a good fit for an individual who thrives in an atmosphere of ambiguity and loves to figure out the unknown.Use the resume as just a starting pointPOLL QUESTION # 3
  13. Using a valid assessment designed to identify accurately the learning and personality match can help you save money and time… and helps you select employees who will be high performers and your best producers with more confidence.Assessments provide information that is so accurate, you can even skip the initial resume review.Using current technology and science, you can more accurately identify people who already have the qualities you need, but can’t train for… like decisiveness or calmness or creativity.An assessment can provide key information to hiring managers, helping them to be more successful in their decision making. Managers who use Affintus have told us that the information makes them feel like they have known the candidate for a month before they even meet for the interview
  14. Most interviews tend to be more focused on conversation and exchanging ideas than data collection.Structured interviews simply deliver better information.Most managers benefit from interview guidance - give managers the questions and a rating scale for each question – that helps them focus on what is important (you have identified that during your analysis of the job)It is a good idea to use more than one interviewer if possible. Bias of the interviewer(s). No two interviewers assess the candidate’s responses the same way. That's why research tells us to have two or more interviewers.The candidate's responses to interview questions are affected by the environment in which they are interviewed and by the rapport established with the interviewer. Conducted the interview in a "business environment" with no interruptions. Many questions don't accurately measure what you want them to measure. Most questions seek opinions, not evidence of past behaviour. Interview questions must be behaviourally based and be aligned to the core group of performance factors related to the role.The responses sound and feel good, but they are not predictive of job success. Managers continue to assess on gut feel. Just because a person dresses well, looks attractive, talks and acts confidently doesn't mean they can do the job. With the minimum outlay of $7500 to hire an employee, you want to make sure you get it right!You have identified the key aspects of the job, now create questions that will invite the candidate to tell you about how they solve problems, they kind of work environment they like, and how they learn new skills and work with others. 
  15. Finding people who are a good match for your job results in significant impact to the bottom line – employees who are a good match for the job are between 10 and 50% more productive than other employees.POLL QUESTION # 4
  16. One way to demonstrate the importance of talent decision making is to translate results into numbers – that is language that execs and managers can relate to. For example, if you have a sales position open for 60 days, what does that mean for the company? Or customer service positions or data entry positions that have high turnover? With information about how long it is actually taking to fill positions you can do two things:If the time to fill is too long, then you know to analyze the process to pinpoint the bottleneck – is it lack of information? A manager whose calendar is too full and can’t fit in interviews?You can calculate how much it costs to have the unfilled, too.For a sales position you would consider lost revenue and customer retention.For customer service job, you can estimate the value lost by multiplying the salary by the number of open days – this assumes that the salary reflects the value delivered to the company and its customers or clients.Measure: Time to Fill and Time to StartFormulas:TF = RR – SDValue of Measures:Helps identify the value of lost time due to vacancy, especially if you know staff and management cost factors (TF x MT or ST where MT = Management time and ST = Staff time) Can be the beginning of a process improvement effort, especially if you choose to break down the component steps of the recruitment process to further analyze the cycle time
  17. think about the last time you started a new job – how long did it take you to do the new tasks? How long now? How long did it take to master the new position? Even when someone has experience in the job, it still takes several months to learn how to do it in a new company.Tracking the number of “productive” employees (trained and able to do the job with minimal supervision), helps managers and executives understand the impact of turnover.New employees are a drain on internal resources until they are up to speed on their jobs. typically takes from 2 – 18 months, depending on the position.This number takes into account the learning curve that all new employees have. On average new employees are producing at about 70% during the first 6 months.HC = 100 20 hired in the first 6 months of the year – and they are producing at about 70 % (You will have to estimate this for your org, and for each position)PW = about 86( new hires are producing like 14 people, not 20)HC = a number and it is important to track this numberPW = what you really have re: productivity and resultsThis measure supports the understanding, esp at the mgr / exec level, the impact of being fully staffed as well as the impact of new employees on productivity. When people are new, there is a learning curve that draws on internal resources.Real impact = $$$ and productivity – just because you are fully staffed doesn’t mean you are getting the work done…the more complicated the job the longer the learning curve…etc.