The document provides an overview of the activities of AECM (Association of European Guarantee Institutions) from June 2018 to June 2019. It summarizes that AECM focused on future EU financial instruments, digitization, communication, impact measurement, statistics, and strengthening membership. It also discusses AECM's engagement in international relations and the exchange of best practices. Upcoming priorities include further political representation, digitization, impact assessment, statistics, and international collaboration.

1. REPRESENTATIVE
OF GUARANTEE
INSTITUTIONS IN EUROPE
- fostering SMEs’ growth

2. PRESENTATION OF THE
ACTIVITIES OF AECM 2018 - 2019
Bernhard Sagmeister, Chairman of AECM

3. Overview of the activities 06/2018 to
06/2019 (-1-)
3
Since the last General Assembly in Warsaw (= 14 June 2018), AECM focused its activities on:
13/06/2019MEETING OF THE GENERAL ASSEMBLY
Future EU financial instruments / MFF: financial instruments under direct and indirect management
Digitization: external dimension, internal dimension, of AECM itself
Communication: member area of website, social media, webinars, publication of several reports
Impact / Evidence of impact: exchange with EIF, EBRD; AECM REGAR Task Force; WG meetings; OTS 09/2019

4. Overview of the activities 06/2018 to
06/2019 (-2-)
4
Since the last General Assembly in Warsaw (= 14 June 2018), AECM focused its activities on:
13/06/2019MEETING OF THE GENERAL ASSEMBLY
Statistics: one streamlined publication “The statistical yearbook”, provision of data to EIF and EU Commission
Strengthening of the association: 2 new members; partnership criteria revised; strategic preamble
International relations: visits of several delegations, collaboration with OECD and The SME Finance Forum, with
REGAR, ACSIC, MENA and many more
Exchange of best practices: 1 annual event, 2 OTS with follow-up report, working group meetings, workshops,
many surveys

5. Guarantees are even more important,
as financing for SMEs gets more challenging
513/06/2019MEETING OF THE GENERAL ASSEMBLY
Demand-side:
Speed of innovation
and international competition
increase exponentially
Supply-side:
Stringent Financial Market Regulation
leads to „collateral squeeze“
and „shortage in venture capital“
Innovative Enterprises
Federal budgets face comprehensive
budget restrictions
In consequence: Loss of
innovation speed and
international competitiveness
Hypothesis:

6. ’’The way forward’’
613/06/2019MEETING OF THE GENERAL ASSEMBLY
Evidence of impact is crucial
’’Data is our gold’’
Digitization – development of guarantee
business
Digitization will increase
availability of data, we have to
convince important stakeholder
(i.e. governments, banks) of the
high-impact of guarantees (job
creation, growth, innovation)
New distribution channels, e.g.
cooperation with Fintechs &
improvement of internal
processes of guarantee
institutions

7. Upcoming priorities of AECM (-1-)
7
Till next General Assembly AECM will focus its activities on:
13/06/2019MEETING OF THE GENERAL ASSEMBLY
Further successful political representation and lobbying activities: esp. as to MFF / financial instruments
Digitization: external dimension, internal dimension, of AECM itself
Impact / Evidence of impact: OTS 09/2019, working group meeting 10/2019, AECM REGAR Task Force
Statistics: next edition of “The statistical yearbook”, provision of data to EIF and EU Commission, surveys

8. Upcoming priorities of AECM (-2-)
8
Till next General Assembly AECM will focus its activities on:
13/06/2019MEETING OF THE GENERAL ASSEMBLY
International relations: collaboration with OECD and The SME Finance Forum, with REGAR, ACSIC, MENA…
Exchange of best practices of its members: OTS, with follow-up report, working group meetings, workshops…
Continuation of excellent collaboration with other associations / networks: joint event with SMEunited 11/2019
Broadening AECM’s membership basis

9. Guarantee Activity Survey
9
INTRODUCTION
Guarantee Activity Survey undertaken for the fourth time
Collection of qualitative statements on
o the assessment of the current situation
o on the expectations of members for the future development
Comparative analyses on survey results over the past four years
This year : 36 out of 48 members replied (response rate of 75%)
13/06/2019MEETING OF THE GENERAL ASSEMBLY

10. Guarantee Activity Survey
10
Observed demand for guarantees in the
year…
61,0% 62,1%
78,8%
69,4%
24,4%
13,8% 6,1%
16,7%
14,6%
24,1%
15,2%
13,9%
2015/2016 2016/2017 2017/2018 2018/2019
Increased Decreased Remained stable
63,4% 62,1% 63,6% 69,4%
9,8% 13,8% 0,0% 5,6%
26,8% 24,1%
36,4%
25,0%
2015/2016 2016/2017 2017/2018 2018/2019
Increase Decrease Remain stable
• Large majority observed demand increase, but positive observations are nearly ten points less important than
last year
• The expectations for 2019 show a similar, albeit slightly more optimistic picture
Demand for guarantees in the current year
is/was expected to…
2015 2016 2017 2018 2016 2017 2018 2019
13/06/2019MEETING OF THE GENERAL ASSEMBLY

11. Guarantee Activity Survey
11
Comparison of observations and expectations for guarantee demand
-1,3%
16,7%
5,8%4,0%
-7,7%
16,7%
-2,7%
-9,0%
-22,5%
2016 2017 2018
Increase
Decrease
Stabilisation
lower than
expected
higher than
expected
• 2016 : Predictions for the demand are very close to the effective observations
• 2018 : More members than expected experienced a decrease in the demand for their guarantees
Explanatory note: % is difference in share of observed and expected increases/decreases/stabilisations

12. Guarantee Activity Survey
12
The observed guarantee activity in the year…
• Results quite similar to those for guarantee demand
• Expectations for 2019 are widely positive, but negative expectations are growing
The guarantee activity in the current year
is/was expected to…
56,1%
69,0%
75,8%
66,7%
29,3%
17,2% 19,4%
14,6%
13,8%
12,1%
13,9%
2015/2016 2016/2017 2017/2018 2018/2019
Increased Decreased Remained stable
61,0%
69,0%
63,6%
63,9%
14,6% 6,9% 0,0% 5,6%
24,4% 24,1%
36,4%
30,6%
2015/2016 2016/2017 2017/2018 2018/2019
Increase Decrease Remain stable
2015 2016 2017 2018 2016 2017 2018 2019
13/06/2019MEETING OF THE GENERAL ASSEMBLY

13. Guarantee Activity Survey
13
The observed bank financing for SMEs in the
year…
• The observed improvement of the access to finance is more widespread in 2018 than in 2017
• Past four years: the expectation of a stabilisation has continuously grown as the expectation for an improvement
has decreased
The bank financing for SMEs in the current
year is/was expected to…
39,0%
48,3%
27,3%
41,7%
24,4% 10,3% 9,1%
8,3%
36,6%
41,4%
63,6%
50,0%
2015/2016 2016/2017 2017/2018 2018/2019
Improved Declined Remained stable
56,1%
48,3%
39,4%
27,8%
7,3% 3,4%
9,1%
2,8%
36,6%
51,5%
69,4%
2015/2016 2016/2017 2017/2018 2018/2019
Improve Worsen Remain stable
2016 2017 2018 20192015 2016 2017 2018
13/06/2019MEETING OF THE GENERAL ASSEMBLY

14. Guarantee Activity Survey
14
Alternative financing instruments in the
previous year were observed to become…
• Stabilisation in alternative financing instruments was strong in 2017 and 2018
• In 2015 and 2016 more members saw a more important role for alternative financing instruments
• Similarly, expectations for a stabilisation is continuously growing whereas expectations for an increasing role for
alternative financing instruments become rarer
Alternative financing instruments in the
previous year are/were expected to become…
50,0% 53,8%
21,9%
26,5%
7,9% 3,8%
9,4%
5,9%
42,1% 42,3%
68,8% 67,6%
2015/2016 2016/2017 2017/2018 2018/2019
More important Less important Remained stable
73,7%
60,0%
33,3%
40,0%
5,3%
4,0%
13,3%
5,7%
21,1%
36,0%
53,3% 54,3%
2015/2016 2016/2017 2017/2018 2018/2019
More important Less important Remain stable
2015 2016 2017 2018 2016 2017 2018 2019
13/06/2019MEETING OF THE GENERAL ASSEMBLY

15. Guarantee Activity Survey
15
The use of EIF counter-guarantees by your
organisation in the year… was observed to
be…
• Since 2015 : 40-50% of members observed a stabilisation of the use of EIF counter-guarantees
• Since 2017 : much less members observed that EIF counter-guarantees became more important
• A majority of AECM members expect EIF counter-guarantees to become more important
The use of EIF counter-guarantees by your
organisation for the current year is/was
expected to become…
43,8% 46,2%
28,6% 36,7%
15,6% 11,5% 21,4% 16,7%
40,6% 42,3%
50,0%
46,7%
2015/2016 2016/2017 2017/2018 2018/2019
More important Less important Remained stable
60,0%
48,0% 48,3% 51,6%
11,4% 4,0% 17,2% 9,7%
28,6%
34,5% 38,7%
2015/2016 2016/2017 2017/2018 2018/2019
More important Less important Remain stable
2016 2017 2018 20192015 2016 2017 2018
13/06/2019MEETING OF THE GENERAL ASSEMBLY

16. Guarantee Activity Survey
16
The use of direct EIF guarantees by banks in
the year… was observed to become…
• 2016 to 2018 : Expectations of a more important use of direct EIF guarantees by banks halved
• 2019 : 10% more AECM members expect an increased use of EIF direct guarantees
• These expectations largely reflect the observation of respondents
The use of direct EIF guarantees by banks for
the current year is/was expected to become…
41,2%
48,1%
34,5% 41,9%
11,8% 7,4% 17,2%
6,5%
47,1%
44,4%
48,3% 51,6%
2015/2016 2016/2017 2017/2018 2018/2019
More important Less important Remained stable
51,5%
44,4% 27,6% 37,5%
9,1% 7,4% 17,2%
9,4%
39,4%
48,1%
55,2%
53,1%
2015/2016 2016/2017 2017/2018 2018/2019
More important Less important Remain stable
2015 2016 2017 2018 2016 2017 2018 2019
13/06/2019MEETING OF THE GENERAL ASSEMBLY

17. Guarantee Activity Survey
17
What is AECM members’ focus for the year 2019 compared to their focus in 2018
8,3%
19,4%
22,2%
22,2%
22,2%
30,6%
33,3%
41,7%
44,4%
75,0%
91,7%
0,0% 20,0% 40,0% 60,0% 80,0% 100,0%
Conduct evaluative study on additionality/impact of guarantees
Changing the current business model
New tarification/fee-models
Propose legislative/regulatory/supervisory reforms
Implementation/modification of risk control and management…
New other financing products
New channelling of products
New guarantee procedures
New clients/target groups
New guarantee products
Continuing current business
13/06/2019MEETING OF THE GENERAL ASSEMBLY

18. Guarantee Activity Survey
18
Evaluation of business prospects for SMEs
• Most AECM members evaluate the development of general business prospects for SMEs as positive
• However, the trend is negative and the evaluation in 2019 is the most negative since we undertake this survey
61,5% 64,3% 67,7%
58,3%
2,6% 0,0%
3,2% 5,6%
35,9% 35,7% 29,0%
36,1%
0,0%
10,0%
20,0%
30,0%
40,0%
50,0%
60,0%
70,0%
80,0%
2015/2016 2016/2017 2017/2018 2018/2019
Improving Declining Remaining stable
2016 2017 2018 2019
13/06/2019MEETING OF THE GENERAL ASSEMBLY

19. Guarantee Activity Survey
19
Comparison AECM-REGAR – general business prospects for SMEs
• Business prospects for SMEs are slightly better in AECM-Europe
58,3%
5,6%
36,1%
AECM
Improving Declining Remaining stable
46%
8%
46%
REGAR
Improving Declining Remaining stable
13/06/2019MEETING OF THE GENERAL ASSEMBLY

20. Guarantee Activity Survey
20
Comparison AECM-REGAR – observed guarantee activity 2018
• A higher share of increases was observed for AECM members, but also a higher share of decreases
• Stabilisation was experienced by 38 % of REGAR members
66,7%
19,4%
13,9%
AECM
Increased Decreased Remained stable
50%
12%
38%
REGAR
Increased Decreased Remained stable
13/06/2019MEETING OF THE GENERAL ASSEMBLY

21. Guarantee Activity Survey
21
Comparison AECM-REGAR – expected guarantee activity 2019
• Expectations of AECM and REGAR members are very similar
• AECM members are slightly more optimistic
63,9%
5,6%
30,6%
AECM
Increase Decrease Remain stable
61%
12%
27%
REGAR
Increased Decreased Remained stable
13/06/2019MEETING OF THE GENERAL ASSEMBLY

22. THANK YOU FOR YOUR ATTENTION &
FOR YOUR SUPPORT TO AECM
Special thanks to Bernard Jehin and André Douette,
It is a great pleasure having you with us today!
The same to Pablo Pombo and José Fernando Figueiredo for their constant
and hopefully never-ending support!
European Association of Guarantee Institutions
Avenue d‘Auderghem 22-28
B-1040 Brussels
Phone: +32 2 640 51 77
Mail: info@aecm.eu