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Student Identification Number: 68
ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT | SPRING 2014
Update to the Economic Development Strategy, Jordan Downs Housing Redevelopment
Client: HACLA, Master Developer
Los Angeles, CA
Re:Working Jordan Downs
PLANNING ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT FOR A COMMUNITY MOVING FORWARD
“LOCAL ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT IS ACHIEVED
WHEN A COMMUNITY’S STANDARD OF LIVING
CAN BE PRESERVED AND INCREASED THROUGH A
PROCESS OF HUMAN AND PHYSICAL
DEVELOPMENT THAT IS BASED ON PRINCIPLES OF
EQUITY AND SUSTAINABILITY.”
- BLAKELY & LEIGH, PLANNING LOCAL ECONOMIC
DEVELOPMENT (2010)
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
Jordan Downs resides in an area with the largest
concentration of public housing west of the Mississippi. As
part of an ambitious effort to improve the affordable housing
dynamics for families across Los Angeles, the Jordan Downs
redevelopment seeks to catalyze change in Watts through this
four-phased development that includes a mix of residential
and commercial functions in a sustainable and healthy
environment.
This experimental, mix-income development has a number of
obstacles that it must overcome for success; many of these
obstacles relate to the economic and social fabric of the area,
which has been impacted by significant disinvestment over
the years. By surveying the community’s assets and critically
analyzing the state of the Community Master Plan, it becomes
clear that the plan fails to map the pathway for economic
redevelopment of the area, revealing challenges currently left
unaddressed and opportunities that may not be realized.
Jordan Downs possesses distinctions from other public
housing redevelopments across the country, but a historical
review of public housing and mix-income conversion in the
United States highlight the importance of planning for
economic development and growth. Previous case studies
reveal that while the provision of improved housing will surely
ignite a wider redevelopment effort in the neighborhood of
Watts, it is important to recognize that conditions must be
created to facilitate the successful transition of this
community from a socio-economically and geographically
isolated cluster of poverty into a thriving mix-income
community. Like many past projects of its type, although the
Master Plan has a clear vision and development objectives, it
is less obvious how this sustainable housing development will
be accompanied by sustainable economic development.
This report seeks to suggest a number of ways that the
community of Jordan Downs can seize the moment of
opportunity that results from new development while
promoting long-term economic independence of its residents.
Focusing on institutional capacity building, human capital
development, small business development and
entrepreneurship, and the creative mobilization of local and
regional assets, the recommendations in this report are
intended to facilitate the fulfillment of a core set of economic
development objectives:
 Stimulate private investment while promoting
community ownership.
 Build institutional capacity for community-based
economic change
 Create revenue and employment generating
opportunities on the Jordan Downs site
PART I: Introductionand
Problem Framing
The Jordan Downs Redevelopment
Increasing densification across Los Angeles is presenting new
opportunities for dense, mix-use, mix-income, and livable
communities. The Jordan Downs Redevelopment Initiative is
at the forefront of this opportunity, with a Master Plan that
seeks to catalyze change in the Watts area by reinvisioning
affordable housing and community improvement.
Part of a larger effort initiated by former Mayor Antonio
Villaraigosa to solve the affordable housing crisis in Los
Angeles, the project is symbolic of revitalized efforts in Los
Angeles and around the country to replace old public housing
stock with bustling mix-income communities.
Project Site
The project at Jordan Downs is an ambitious, mix-use, mix-
income development. In addition to the one-to-one
replacement of the current 700 public housing units, 700units
will be added to the site, featuring a mix of architectural styles
and designs. Due to the creative phasing process the
developer is utilizing, all current residents will be remain on
site and will be redistributed around the development as it is
being built. At 106.4 acres, the development also includes the
designation of 100,000 square feet of retail/commercial
space, or otherwise designated “employment land”.
Contextualizing Redevelopment at Jordan Downs:
Local and Regional Trends
Local Trends: Jordan Downs Redevelopment and Master Plan
Jordan Downs is located in a site that has been plagued by its
notoriety and infamy for crime, gang activity, and low
educational and economic opportunity. However, recent
efforts to improve the schooling system and law enforcement
system is yielding positive progress for the residents of this
community. Given the right attention and commitment, a
number of regional trends poise this development forsuccess.
Regional Trends: Los Angeles County and its Economy
This project comes after a period of steep decline for the Los
Angeles region, as evidenced by the relatively high poverty
rates. A number of contracting industries, notably
manufacturing and aerospace/defense, directly impacted the
Jordan Downs area, which was originally conceived as an
industrial enclave to support manufacturing defenseactivities.
Despite the recent and pro-longed decline, there are a
number of trends that coincide neatly with the development
of Jordan Downs. A renewed interest in inner city living has
brought the children of baby boomers (and boomers and
empty nesters themselves) out of the suburbs and back into
the inner city, as people increasingly seek proximity to transit
lines and the “buzz” that inner city amenities offer. The sub-
prime mortgage crisis, it appears, has chipped away at the
American fixation with single family homes, and demand for
apartments in the region are increasing markedly (Multi-
Family Market Forecast, 2013). And, more importantly, there
seems to be a shortage of supply with the last few years
characterized by very little new development throughout Los
Angeles County. The shortage of available housing is evident
in the high cost of living and high rents in the County, where
some spend upwards of 50% of annual income on rent. In the
area surrounding Jordan Downs, this number approaches49%,
so the addition of units to the area will be welcomed. These
are all positive indicators for the Jordan Downs
redevelopment initiative.
The County has also begun aggressively pursuing the
development of a number of critical sectors for future
employment, which are of particular importance to the
employment aspirations for residents. Notably industries in
the area include Fashion, Entertainment/Emerging Media
Technology, Analytical Instruments, Aerospace, Information
Technology, Business Services, Food Manufacturing, and a
variety of Green industries. As a traditional site for
manufacturing production, Los Angeles County is poised to
take advantage of a number of new technologies that are
transforming the aforementioned industries, such as additive,
advanced and green manufacturing. The new emphasis not
only on product innovation but process innovation offers
important opportunities for new job creation and industrial
revitalization in Los Angeles County—and thus important
opportunities for the residents of Jordan Downs given its
proximity to large industrial areas.
Jordan Downs will also be well positioned to take advantage
of LA’s transit revolution. A number of new lines are being
constructed around the city and larger region, giving residents
of Jordan Down direct access to the new economic and
employment developments in the surrounding areas through
their connection to the Blue Line.
Report Methodology
This report is comprised of two parts. Part I features a critical
analysis of the Master Plan and site location from a variety of
perspectives in planning, included land use, transportation
and economic development, and seeks to identify some key
trends that may be impacting the development. The majority
of this analysis is anchored in site visits, client interviews,
demographic and socio-economic census data, as well other
informing documents and market studies that have been
conducted about the Jordan Downsdevelopment.
Building off of this analysis, Part II contains the proposed
solutions and recommendations for enhancing the economic
development aspect of the Master Plan. Part II begins with an
overview of public housing and mix income housing in the
United States in order to better understand what some of the
general challenges have been associated with these
developments. Using this analysis to inform the SWOT
conducted in Part I, Part II will also feature the proposed
vision, strategy and implementation plan for improving
economic development outcomes at Jordan Downs.
Summary of Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities andThreats
Demographic
Strengths Weaknesses Opportunities Threats
-High density area
-Concentration of youth
-Racial tension resulting from
diversity
-High poverty
-Burgeoning workforce
because of school-age
population
-Very low educational
attainment for adult
population
Land Use -Opportunity to create
vibrant live-work
community
-Limited availability of non-
residential property for economic
development
-Surrounding
commercial/industrial
zoned properties
-Potential live/work
-Presence of non-
contributing industrial parcels
-High surrounding vacancy
Transportation -Located near major
freeways for business
-Nearby Metro station
-Poor circulation
-Safety inhibits pedestrian/cycling
transportation
-Create a walkable/bikeable
community
-High public transit usage
-Safety concerns
-Pollution from proximity to
major thoroughfares/
freeways
Cultural -Rich cultural
institutions and vibrant
social atmosphere
-Proximity to Watts
Towers
-Negative cultural capital associated
with the Watts area
-Difficult cultural and ethnic tensions
within the community
-Re-Brand Watts and public
housing in Jordan Downs
-Perpetuation of cultural
baggage associated with the
area
Economic
Development
-Proximity to many
markets
-Access to industrial
clusters in region
-Entrepreneurship
-Welfare dependent population
-Few employment generators
(disinvestment)
-Weak retail, especially in food
-Unrecognized informal economy
-Creative re-use/upgrading
of non-contributing
industrial parcels
-Take advantage of
proximity to industrial
activities
-Designated land area for
“employment” uses
-Inability to create long term
economic self sufficiency
-Create opportunities that
cater to a range of skills
-Newly developed retail
district nearby
Demographics
Figure 1 gives an aerial view of the census tracts that were
selected for analysis. The U-shaped lot represents the site
area, and the communities to the north-west and south
represent the direct neighborhood. The tract that represents
the eastern border of the site area was not selected as part of
the demographic analysis, as this tract primarily contains
industrially zoned parcels that feature commercialenterprises.
As such, it did not prove helpful in better contextualizing the
demographics of the Jordan Downs population surrounding
community.
FIGURE 1 - CENSUS TRACTS 2420, 2421, 2430 (SOURCE: SOCIAL EXPLORER)
FIGURE 2 – AGE DISTRIBUTION OF TRACTS VS LOS ANGELES COUNTY (SOURCE: SOCIAL
EXPLORER)
The primary strength and opportunity in terms of the
demographics of Jordan Downs lies in the age distribution of
the community, which features a much younger population
than the average in the County of Los Angeles. This
represents an important opportunity from an economic
development perspective, as the availability of human capital
increasingly determines locational attractiveness to industry
and employers (Blakely & Leigh, 2010).
Undoubtedly the primary weaknesses and threats of this
community pertain to the low educational attainment, as
demonstrated by Figure 3, and the high concentration of
poverty in the area, which boasts a population where 48.5% of
individuals are living below the poverty line, compared to just
over 24% in the County of Los Angeles (ACS, 2012). The
AGE DISTRIBUTION
All Tracts LA County
16.0%
14.0%
12.0%
10.0%
8.0%
6.0%
4.0%
2.0%
0.0%
Under 5 to 9 10 to 15 to 18 to 25 to 35 to 45 to 55 to 65 to 75 to 85
5
Years
Years 14 17 24 34 44 54 64 74 84 Years
Years Years Years Years Years Years Years Years Years and
2 demonstrates, one of the largest age groups are people
under 18, making this an ideal time to implement a robust
school to work program at Jordan High School.
Land Use
The Master Plan has been constructed to take place in a space
with a particularly unique combination of zoning, which
includes residences, a school, an urban garden, and
commercial and industrial land.
FIGURE 3 – EDUCATIONAL ATTAINMENT IN TRACTS VS LA COUNTY (SOURCE: SOCIAL
EXPLORER )
median annual income is just over $10,000, signifying the
gravity of the situation. Moreover, while there is a young
population in the Jordan Downs area which represents a rich
potential workforce, without the right educational and
employment interventions this population risks reflecting
current trends of workforce underutilized, as the current labor
force participation in the area is only around 50%, compared
to the County of Los Angeles at just over 61% (ACS, 2012).
In order to take advantage of this burgeoning workforce,
rigorous strategies must be implemented that incorporate job
training and readiness. These programs must integrate the
local high school students and community colleges. As Figure
While this combination of
land uses may initially be
considered a weakness for
the project, the mix of
uses is rare in dense
urban communities now,
and can be exploited to
turn the site into a
vibrant live-work
community. If, for
example, the currently
non-participating
industrial/commercially
zoned parcels can be
incorporated into the
overall development
plans, there is
tremendous opportunity
to create sources of
employment directly next
to residents, in addition
FIGURE 4 – LAND USE MAP (SOURCE: JORDAN DOWNS
MASTER PLAN)
EDUCATIONAL ATTAINMENT
LA County All Tracts
Doctorate degree
Professional school degree or more
Master's degree or more
Bachelor's degree or more
Some college or more
High School Graduate or more…
Less Than High School
0.0%10.0%20.0%30.0%40.0%50.0%60.0%70.0%80.0%90.0%
to providing a site for on the site training and learning
activities for the neighboring high school. From this
perspective, there is great capacity to turn the Jordan Downs
area into a high quality, middle class, work-live area. Figure 4
demonstrates this unique pairing of uses and reveals the
potential for use that has already been considered by the
Master Plan.
Transportation
Another strength of the Master Plan is its aspiration to take
advantage of the potential to transform Jordan Downs into a
transit oriented development, due to its connection to the
Blue Line and the relatively high public transit ridership rates
for Watts residents vis-à-vis their Los Angeles County
counterparts (Watts Community Studio, 2014). Moreover, the
City and County of Los Angeles are currently planning to
expand the Metro system around Los Angeles, which will
increase the relative value of Watts being connected to the
transit system as the region develops over the next 10 years.
Going forward, the transportation plan could be more strongly
connected to the economic development and retail
aspirations for the area.
Cultural
The Jordan Downs redevelopment is located in an area that
possesses unique cultural resources in the form of civic, social
and religious institutions and organizations; however, it also
possesses unique cultural baggage, mostly stemming from
Watts’ reputation as a poverty stricken and unsafe
neighborhood. Despite this reputation, there are a number of
rich socio-cultural institutions in the area, such as the Watts
Towers, which serve as an attraction for people around the
world who visit Los Angeles. And while the area boasts a fairly
long African American history, an influx of foreign born
residents since the 1990’s has contributed to diversifying the
cultural influences in the area, creating a rich atmosphere for
residents and visitors. It is critical that in the process of
“rebranding” the neighborhood that these cultural assets are
routinely mapped and continuously updated so that cultural
contributions can be maximized.
Economic Development
Watts has been confronted with obstacles in stimulating
economic development in this area. The high concentration of
public housing, chronic disinvestment, and lack of
employment opportunities has rendered the Jordan Downs
community and the surrounding area largely welfare
dependent. This may prove a challenge for encouraging
private investment in the area, in addition to providing
obstacles in attracting renters for the market-rate units that
will be part of the new development. One oversight of the
Master Plan is that it does not account for a long-term
strategy for initiating economic transformation in the area,
and it does not address how the development plans to attract
a range of skill levels and incomes to the property. While the
housing development will undoubtedly be attractive and will
ensure a high quality of amenities, its success is dependent on
its ability to attract the right mix of tenants.
FIGURE 5 - OCCUPANCY STATUS AT CENSUS TRACTS (SOURCE: SOCIAL EXPLORER)
As it is, Figure 5 demonstrates the already elevated vacancy
rates, and while the occupancy rates at Jordan Downs are
high, the high vacancy rate of the surrounding neighborhood
is a negative indicator for strong market demand in this area.
At the same time, however, gross rents as a percentage of
income are relatively high in the area (ACS 2012), which would
indicate a pressure on supply that this development complex
would relieve.
A ULI technical assistance study conducted for the site focused
heavily on the lack of attention paid in the Master Plan to
economic sustainability and the creation of long-term fiscal
independence for the area itself. Indeed, while there is
extensive discussion of job training and “employment land”,
there is very little detail about what kinds of economic
development projects will accompany the development to
ensure that the development of the area can keep up with the
level of development being taken on by the Jordan Downs
redevelopment initiative. There is no identification of a
partnering economic development institution, signaling an
institutional capacity problem, and this results in a lack of
long-term consideration for the industrial and commercial
development for the area. Despite the ambiguity associated
with its use, however, the designated employment land offers
some of the most promising opportunities for catalytic
economic development projects.
While the Watts area generally suffers from low institutional
capacity in the area of economic development, there are a
number of opportunities to unleash economic potential and a
home-grown entrepreneurial spirit that characterizes the
Jordan Downs population and its neighbors in the surrounding
census tracts (Urban Land Institute, 2009). Moreover, as
previously discussed in land use, there is tremendous
opportunity to take advantage of the mix of land use zones in
the area and to incorporate the industrial/commercial parcels
located on the site area, but that are not currently
participating in the development. There is also opportunity to
help expand and grow the existing commercial and retail
enterprises in the surrounding area, thereby incorporating
more of the areas pre-existing economic assets into the
strategy for long-term success in the area.
The following section will build on this analysis by further
detailing the state of economic development at JordanDowns,
discussing the economic vision for the area, and suggesting a
number of recommendations and implementation projects
that comprise the strategic economic development plan for
the Jordan Downs Redevelopment Initiative.
OCCUPANCY STATUS
Occupied Vacant
105.0%
100.0%
95.0%
90.0%
85.0%
80.0%
All Tracts LA County
PART II: Economic
Development at Jordan
Downs
Primary Challenges
Creative Phasing- There are a number of reasons why this
development project may suffer unique obstacles, but also
offer unique opportunities relative to other development
projects throughout US history. While it shares a
commonality with many new mix-income affordable housing
projects in that it is being redeveloped, not built from scratch,
the residents will be relocated on site during construction,
which creates unique opportunities and challenges from an
economic development perspective. Disruption to community
members from construction will be prolonged because of the
phasing; however, the retail and commercial space can be
developed immediately in part because there will be residents
to service from inception of Phase 1. From this perspective,
the project has unique revenue and employment generating
capacity even before completion.
Experimental Locational Choice- Additionally, while mix-
income projects are not entirely new, they are a relatively new
experiment for the region, especially in the area selected. A
very difficult past has resulted in negative associations with
the communities’ level of economic opportunity and general
safety, so incentivizing individuals to move into the market
rate apartments may be more difficult given the recent
historical development of Jordan Downs. And, while the
community has identified some potential employers, there is
little incentivizing high skill individuals to move to this
community because the jobs do not correspond with theirskill
level. Moreover, there is extremely low employment on site,
and the current strategy to transition a financially dependent
population into long-term economic self-sufficiency is
underdeveloped.
WATTS TOWERS (PHOTO CREDIT: STUDENT 68)
Community Disinvestment and Regional Decline-
Stimulating meaningful employment will also be difficult, as
the area must combat chronic disinvestment over the years,
and more generally the Los Angeles region has lost manyjobs
that directly impact the skill level/demographic in the
Watts/Jordan Downs area. Fewer large employer
opportunities in the area also have consequences forstrategic
economic development planning, in that most economic
growth must come from small to medium sized businesses.
Furthermore, the development will be situated in a largely
developed, dense, mostly residential area of Los Angeles. This
means that there is little available undeveloped land, so
intensive cataloguing of vacant properties will be important
for identifying local commercial/industrial redevelopment
opportunities.
Diversity- Finally, this community has a diverse
population and a mix of foreign and native born residents.
The high volume of undocumented individuals (and their
informal businesses) on site, however, has made it difficultto
estimate the true economic power of the area, further eluding
investors (Urban Land Institute, 2009). Unique racial tensions
in this community between African Americans and Latinos,
which have arisen in part because of conflict over an
increasingly limited supply of low-mid skill jobs, will
undoubtedly need to be accounted for in this redevelopment
initiative.
Primary Opportunities
A Community on the Rise- Generally speaking, there are
some strong indicators that put this community potentially at
the forefront of opportunity. Crime rates are decreasing for
Watts and notably in the Jordan Downs community, the
schools are showing remarkable improvement after being
taken over by PLAS, and a lack of quality amenities in the area
signifies good opportunity and ensures little duplication of
services. A general dirth of quality services in thesurrounding
area will also make this redevelopment attractive, as willthe
provision of increased affordable housing.
SITE PLAN (SOURCE: MASTER PLAN)
Retail/Commercial Development Center- One very positive
opportunity for this development is the retail and commercial
development, which will provide much needed services to the
community and take advantage of the over 350 million dollar
unmet service demand in the area (Primestor, 2011). As
demonstrated by the image on page 16 from the Primestor
Retail Market Analysis, the location of the new retail in the
northeast corner of the development will provide much
needed amenities to Jordan Downs residents, and their north-
ward neighbors. The population and traffic density of this
neighborhood should also prove attractive to national
retailers, despite the limiting bounds of the primary tradearea
Retail/Employment
and low income of residents (Primestor, 2011). Additionally,
the Jobs Resources Center and generally designated
“Employment Land” offers valuable opportunities for
community-owned ventures, as well as a site for coordinating
employment training and job placements.
Culture of Entrepreneurship- Extensive opportunity
also lies in what is currently under regulated economic
activity, or the “gray economy” in the form of unrealized
entrepreneurship and economic potential for small businesses
that need legitimization. One of the primary reasons this
investment is not being currently made is that there is a large
under-ground economy in the area, probably stemming from
(1) ) illegal transactions (2) unregulated enterprises (3)
undocumented workers running enterprises. As noted in the
ULI panel, there is a very strong entrepreneurial spirit in the
community of Jordan Downs; however, these activities are not
being directed or coached in a way that makes their
enterprises more official (read: tax-paying and recognized by
outside investors).
Resurgence of the Inner City- Michael Porter highlights
the economic opportunity of the inner city in his work, “The
Competitive Advantage of the Inner City” (1995). The issue of
unrealized purchasing power in the inner city has long been
discussed, often in tandem with new trends of the resurgence
of the inner city. In Jordan Downs, one of the biggest
economic opportunities lies in this resurgence. Around the
country we are seeing reversing suburban, “white flight”
trends, as people seek to be located closer to downtown and
seek to live on transit connections. Moreover, recent and
steadily growing demand for multifamily housing, mix use
housing, and the decline of prominence of the single family
house positions this development as contemporary andfitting
current trends of urbanization. These opportunities are not
being realized because this area has not yet been a target of
new interest, in part because of the history of crime and
poverty that plagues the Watts area.
LOCAL BUSINESSES (PHOTO CREDIT: STUDENT 68)
Neighboring Businesses- Another major economic
opportunity for the Jordan Downs community lies in the pre-
existing businesses on and around the site, (which include
former industrial manufacturing site and a recycling center). If
the owners of these parcels can be incentivized to participate
in the development there is opportunity to create jobs and
economic opportunity in expanded recycling or manufacturing
facilities, which can be complemented by a green design
program at the high school. The opportunity has not been
realized yet because until now, the project has failed to
incentivize these non-contributing structures and their owners
to participate in the development.
Community Assets
In crafting an economic development strategy for the Jordan
Downs Redevelopment Initiative it is important to consider
the relevant community assets. This recognition of assets is
the first step to mobilizing community resources around the
objective of improved economic outcomes for residents. The
assets of the Jordan Downs community include:
 Geographical and Locational Advantages: The Jordan
Downs development is located in the center of one of
the United States’ most important economies, with
transportation connections to the region’s commercial
and industrial center of downtown and the trade
center of the LA/Long Beach ports.
 Designated Employment Lands: While the use of these
properties has not been officially determined, the
presence of these parcels provides the potential for a
vibrant live-work community on the Jordan Downs site.
 Non-participating Parcels: The currently non-
contributing parcels to the project contain a recycling
center and a manufacturing facility. These pre-existing
businesses offer valuable tax revenue and opportunity
for employment and training collaboration.
 Proximity to Thriving Workforce and Business
Development Agencies: While the direct area ofWatts
does not have particularly strong economic leadership,
there are some neighboring employment training
agencies, and the County of Los Angeles features 7
Workforce Investment Boards, which may prove
critical for financing a larger workforce development
strategy in Watts.
 Young, Entrepreneurial Population: Around 50% of
the Jordan Downs community is under the age of 18,
providing a potentially rich source of labor for
economic development and growth. More
importantly, the area reports a high level of natural
entrepreneurship among residents, which is promising
for new business development.
 Cultural, Social and Religious Institutions: Jordan
Downs has a thriving public life that includes many
families and is facilitated by a wide, diverse rangeof
neighborhood institutions.
Economic Development in the Master Plan
The Master Plan gives an important view into how the various
aspects of the plan, such as land use and transportation, will
function independently and also together. From the
perspective of an economic development planner, the Master
Plan is successful at integrating revenue generating property
into the development. There are various parcels that have
been designated for employment uses of various types,which
will complement the housing development well.
At times, however, a major weakness of the Master Plan is
economic development and its disconnection from some
aspects of the plan. While there was continuous mention of
workforce development programs in the “Human Capital”
section, and the plan did indeed cite a number of local and
regional potential employers, it seems insufficient to fill the
need of the residents, especially given the poor employment
prospects in nearby areas. There are two potentially revenue
and job creating parcels that do not seem to beconsidered,
and these non-participating parcels are rarely addressed inthe
Plans in a meaningful way, which is not positive given their
potential to disrupt the project and the environment the
project seeks to create. The plan also tends to promote the
concept of sustainability as it relates to health and
environment, but does not extend principles of sustainability
to the economic plans for the area.
Community Outcomes: Rebuilding Jordan Downs
It is critical that any economic development strategy for
Jordan Downs emphasize job creation and pathways to
economic independence for residents. Currently, the
economic development strategy set forth by the plan
emphasizes job readiness—but it is unclear where thesejobs
does not stratify residents by their occupation. Additionally,
an economic development strategy can guide industrial and
commercial development in the area, so that all new or infill
development projects maximize the potential for useful
industrial clusters and exploit economies of scope and scale.
From Past to Present:
Lessons from Public and
Mix-Income Housing
will be. To ensure long term economic self-sufficiency and
retention of current residents, it is critical to think about
immediate job creators for the community. In drafting a
strategy around job creation, and by thinking ahead about job
creation, the community can plan for an industry/sector
opportunity that will match the employment needs of the
community, that it is feasible, and that it can eventually grow
to offer a range of employment opportunities that will fit the
needs of a multi-income community.
Additionally, there is always the well-known risk of
gentrification when new development projects are introduced
into an area. In order to avoid this problem, an economic
development strategic plan can account for community
ownership, and can advocate for planning for industries that
will service the range of job skills available in the area. This is
especially critical for a mix-income project to succeed that
Public housing is an obstacle confronted by local,regional,
state and federal governments around the world. Before
proposing a more detailed economic development strategy for
the community at Jordan Downs, it is important to first review
the history of public and mix-income housing developments in
the United States. The following historical overview serves to
inform the site-specific analysis as to the challengesassociated
with this type of redevelopment, and provides some
analogous examples to draw lessons from.
Public Housing in the United States
Public housing projects have had a history of difficulty in
facilitating residents achieving prosperity and economic self-
sufficiency; this is largely a result of the fact that most public
housing projects have generated social and economic network
isolation for their residents, thereby limiting financial self-
sufficiency and increasing the concentration ofpoverty.
There is another large, but somewhat hidden problem in the
dynamics of public housing and long-term economic welfare,
which lies in the issue of the “cycle of poverty”, or inter-
generational poverty. While originally conceived as
temporary, most public housing became permanent for
certain key demographics and families, notably African
Americans and more recently Latinos. In particular, African
Americans were often placed in public housing post-WWII, at
the same time that many predominantly white veterans were
returning and taking advantage of generous GI bills and
national housing policies, leading to the accumulation of
assets for one group and the loss of assets to another. This
(LEFT TO RIGHT) - AERIAL VIEW OF
ROBERT TAYLOR HOMES, CHICAGO
(PHOTO CREDIT:
SKYSCRAPECITY.COM); JORDAN
DOWNS AERIAL VIEW (SOURCE:
MASTER PLAN)
analyzed above. Segregated and
away from the city, the Robert Taylor
homes were built in a similar fashion
to the Jordan Downs project, but on a
much larger scale. The apartment
buildings were isolated in the south
side of the city in block style
formation, leading to similar issues
shared by Jordan Downs residents
was in turn exacerbated by the issue of red-lining. Because
public housing never functioned in the temporary manner in
which it was originally conceived, these projects contributed
enormously to the cycle of inter-generational poverty through
the issue of inter-generational asset inequality (Conley, 1999),
which characterizes the phenomenon of differences in asset
accumulation dictating the relative and unjust economic
outcomes of American youth.
The Robert Taylor homes, which are often cited as an example
of failed public housing, illustrate many of the failures
such as poor sight lines and a general lack of safetyembedded
into the built environment. Originally hailed as a hall mark of
the great American Life, these buildings were constructed as a
temporary solution for families that needed time to get on
their feet and realize economic independence; however, the
geographic isolation and lack of connection to employment
generators destined this community for failure. Before it was
destroyed, field researchers discovered that many residents
had spent upwards of thirty years in these homes (Venkatesh,
2000).
Key Finding: One of the most important takeaways from the
Robert Taylor homes, and others like it, is that public housing
projects are often destined to fail unless they aremeaningfully
connected to employment areas. Without a route to
economic self-sufficiency, public housing projects tend to feed
into cyclical poverty rather than disrupt it.
Mix Income Conversion
Converting public housing projects into mix-income
developments has become an important trend in the sphere
of social housing. The trend is largely built on a philosophy
that mixing incomes will reduce stigmatization of public
housing, especially because all tenants are living in the same
type of housing, regardless of socio-economic difference, thus
mitigating the image of public housing as neglected and crime-
ridden. Furthermore, the idea of mixing incomes is intended
to democratize the economic and social networks in the
project area, disrupting negative social and economic
networks and introducing new opportunity forresidents.
A number of these projects have taken place around the
country, and while there has been substantial celebration of
their success there are also important lessons to be learned
for the Jordan Downs community. Of primary importance is
the issue of stigmatization, and how stigmas have been found
to live on even after the relocation of families into mixed
income communities. Residents in mix income Chicago
projects reported that while the stigma of living in public
housing subsided, they experienced new and intensified
stigma. One study remarked that many residents felt a
negative response from higher-income residents, and that the
strict screening and rule enforcement amplified a sense of
difference among residents, especially as lower-income
residents were targeted (McCormick, Joseph & Chaskin 2012).
Results from another study reflect more general attitudes that
have evolved around welfare culture since the inception of
public housing, and highlight the potential negative social
issues that result from employment discrepancies in a culture
where “employment is considered a pre-requisite right to
claiming government benefits” (Fraser, Chaskin & Buzuin,
2013). Furthermore, there has been no evidence that
demonstrates that living in a mixed-income environment
breaks the poverty cycle, moves people into the workforce
(Chaskin et al., 2012), or removes social barriers (Chaskin and
Joseph, 2011, 2010; Kleit and Manzo, 2006)
As noted earlier in this report, the Master Plan documents do
not provide very rich material that delineates how the
economic transformation of the Jordan Downs community is
going to happen. The ULI technical panel observed repeatedly
that homes will not catalyze transformation, that there must
be some economic catalyst that accompanies this project, and
as we have seen this has been true for many projects that
hoped to achieve neighborhood transformation through the
provision of new housing, public or market rate. This review
of public housing should highlight the importance of an
economic development plan that will offer immediate
employment opportunities for low-income residents so that
they may begin the transition into work prior to upper-income
residents moving in. Furthermore, there is a difficult task of
incentivizing economic opportunities that provide jobs for a
range of skills and wages—this is a critical element of a
successful mix-income community. Unless there are
opportunities for all people on the income spectrum, Jordan
Downs will have a difficult time attracting the right mix of
residents.
POLL FROM THE JORDAN DOWNS RESIDENTS CONFIRM RECENT TRENDS IN
PUBLIC HOUSING DEVELOPMENTS (SOURCE: HUMAN CAPITAL PLAN)
Key Finding: This review sheds important light on the project
at Jordan Downs, and how economic development planning
will be a critical strategy in mitigating potential feelings of
socio-economic tensions and differences that can result from
a community environment in which some individuals feel that
their work is subsidizing the non-work of others (currently
only 24% of residents indicate they are employed). Mix-
income developments will be most successful if everyone in
the development who wants to be income producing is
income producing.
The Strategy: Economic
Development at Jordan
Downs
The Vision for Jordan Downs
A major emphasis of this development project has been
providing residents with the services they need, whether the
services relate to mental health or the availability of high
quality retail. As such, the economic development vision for
Jordan Downs should be responsive to the needs of the
community as well, while simultaneously promotingeconomic
self-sufficiency and long-term, sustainable growth.
Throughout a number of studies the most commonly reported
concern of residents pertains to the lack of current
employment availabilities and opportunities. At the same
time, the majority of the population is under 18, providing a
potentially large pool of trainable workers to stimulategrowth
and development in the area. As such, the economic vision
set forth for Watts in this document has been constructed to
emphasize the recognition of community-based
entrepreneurship, the need for direct job creators and job
readiness programs, and the importance of connecting these
developments to the local education system, notably Jordan
High School.
Economic Development Objectives
 Stimulate private investment while promoting
community ownership
 Facilitate growth without displacement to
achieve goal of development
 Build institutional capacity for community-based
economic change
 Ensure the long-term organizational
management and coordination of economic
development projects/activities in the area
 Create revenue and employment generating
opportunities on the Jordan Downs site
 It is critical that the Jordan Downs Master Plan
maximizes job creation opportunities, as this is
the primary concern of its residents
Recommendations
To achieve the economic development objectives delineated
in this report, and to facilitate the creation of a long-term
economic development strategy for the Jordan Downs
Redevelopment Initiative, the following recommendations are
set forth:
Create a Community DevelopmentCorporation.
It is widely observed in economic development theory that
there are two primary aspects of economic development,
resources and capacity (Blakely & Leigh, 2010). Often
economic development planners focus on resources (such as
human capital, natural resources, location, entrepreneurial
climate, etc.) but fail to consider the multiplying effect of
resources when there is strong institutional capacity to
develop and coordinate these resources.
Currently, the Jordan Downs Redevelopment has a number of
resources at their disposal, including a large supply of labor,
entrepreneurship, and proximity to large markets across
southern California. The Jordan Downs community, and Watts
more generally, does not have the capacity to work with all of
its resources. This observation initially came out of the
analysis of the Master Plan, and was confirmed during a client
interview with Kevin Rodin, who indicated regretfully that
there was no partnering economic/community development
institution and non-profit involved in the project. While
health non-profits in the area had been collaborative with
social services provision, he said, there is low institutional
capacity in the area in terms of economic development.
Implementation partners include: Watts CommunityStudio,
Local Churches and Civic Organizations, West Angeles
Community Development Corporation, Watts Labor and
Community Action Committee (WLCAC)
Turn the Jobs Resource Center into a Revenue and
Employment GeneratingSpace.
A number of independent surveys of the community
demonstrated that the overwhelming pre-occupation of
residents is with job availability and job training. This strategy
proposes utilizing that space more effectively by dividing up its
uses to be more productive. The recommendation is to
subdivide the Jobs Resources Center by a first andsecond
floor.
SITE PLAN FOR COMMERCIAL CENTER AND JOBS RESOURCES FACILITY (SOURCE:
MASTER PLAN)
The first floor should be reserved for one or many community-
owned and operated retail/food services enterprises—
operations that directly employ residents, serve as training
grounds for nearby high school students, and create direct
lines of community investment in the economic success of the
redevelopment. This is important as analyses of mix-income
project point to the importance of community ownership and
participation in directing and sustaining economic success in
the area (Schubert & Thresher, 1996). The second floor of the
Jobs Resources Center could be turned into a set of offices or
other commercial spaces. The new community development
corporation could house itself in an office designated on the
second floor—other offices could be used as co-work and
training spaces and small business incubators.
Potential implementation partners include Michaels Group and
BRIDGE Development partners, Jordan Downsresidents
Establish a Small Business Development and Information
Center.
In a community survey conducted by the Watts Studio, a non-
profit group in the area, 75% of the 700 residents surveyed
identified business development information and mentorship
as a leading choice when asked about program development
(Watts Community Studio, 2014). By utilizing a range of free
business development services that are offered around the
Los Angeles area, the co-work space suggested in
Recommendation #2 can be used as a training facility for
community members hoping to expand their current business
or to legitimize the pre-existing businesses that are informally
operated as part of the “gray economy”. Moreover, using the
retail study as a guide for what retail services are mostneeded
in the community, Jordan Downs can focus on nurturing
smaller establishments, especially since the site cannot
support a big box retailer (Primestor, 2011).
Potential implementation partners include business and
entrepreneurship-based non-profits in and around Los Angeles
(Los Angeles Urban League, SCORE for greater Los Angeles),
higher educational institutions in business administration and
finance (USC Marshall School, UCLA Anderson School), current
businesses in the Watts area, Jordan Downs residents, Los
Angeles Economic DevelopmentCorporation
Jobs Resource
Center
Create a Community Development Finance Institution.
In order to take advantage of the entrepreneurial spirit in the
Jordan Downs area, this strategy also includes the creation of
a community development finance institution (CDFI). CDFI’s
can take many forms, but generally serve the function of
providing credit and financial services to underserved
population. There are a number of ways that this tool can be
used to complement the activities of the community
development corporation, for example by taking the form of a
micro-enterprise development loan fund.
Potential implementation partners include Los Angeles LDC
(CDFI), Opportunity Finance Network, US Department of
Treasury
Collaborate with Leading Industry Groups andAssociations
to Build Worker Pipelines.
One of the primary foci of the Master Plan as it pertains to
economic development was job training and employment
readiness. The Master Plan identified a number of strategies
to improve the skills training for the residents at Jordan Down,
namely through the collaboration with local employers and
workforce development/training centers. A critical strategy to
enhancing potential jobs outcomes for workers will be forging
meaningful professional connections between the job training
services, Jordan High School, and the large industry groups
around Los Angeles and the state. Many of these
organizations, such as the California Network for
Manufacturing Innovation, provide useful, industry-specific
jobs training. At the same time, these organizations possess
strong connections to the local employers in those industries
and know what skills the employers need. By increasing
network collaboration in key targeted industries and creating
formal worker pipelines, it will be possible to improve the
placement of residents after they receive training. Moreover,
by involving industry associations there can be increased
compatibility between training services offered and the actual
jobs that are available.
Potential implementation partners include: industry
associations (aerospace, manufacturing, renewableenergy,
fashion production and manufacturing, etc), employment
training facilities and non-profits, large localemployers
Develop and Implement a Land BankingSystem.
One of the primary problems with generating new
employment and economic activity in the area is that there is
a limited supply of available land for new or redevelopment.
This is problematic in part because it is impossible to attract or
expand business if it is perceived that there is nowhere to go.
By developing a system for monitoring vacant land (including
foreclosed on properties or properties that have other
development obstacles), the economic development
corporation can turn these properties into revenue-generating
opportunities for commercial and economic development
while mitigating the negative externalities of underutilized
property.
Potential implementation partners include Los Angeles
Department of City Planning, County of Los AngelesPlanning
Commission
Incentivize Participation of Currently non-Participating
Parcels
RECYCLING CENTER ON SITE (PHOTO CREDIT: STUDENT 68)
Under the current Master Plan there are two parcels, a former
manufacturing facility and a recycling center, that are not
being utilized as part of the redevelopment. It would be
worth investigating various methods for incentivizing their
participation (through tax breaks, public-private development
partnerships, for example); as they currently stand, both
businesses are a threat to the overall aesthetic being sought
by the developers. But both of these businesses, if upgraded
FORMER MANUFACTURING FACILITY AND CURRENT WAREHOUSE ON SITE (PHOTO
CREDIT: STUDENT 68)
and expanded, have the potential to provide a valuable source
of nearby employment and job training forresidents.
Recycling Centers are useful businesses for employment
because they are labor intensive, social useful endeavors that
often serve to catalyze other economic opportunities (Blakely
& Leigh 2010). The current warehouse/former manufacturing
site, if utilized or acquired, could prove useful as a hands-on
training facility for a number of emerging industries in Los
Angeles, such as advanced manufacturing. Through a
partnership with a school, for example, the provision of such a
facility could be an asset that leads to the designation of the
school as a specialized training center, while simultaneously
providing a site for skills upgrading for older community
members seeking workforce training.
Potential implementation partners include: City of LosAngeles,
two operating business owners of the parcels, Michaels
Organization and BRIDGE Development partners, Jordan High
School/LAUSD, Maxine Waters Employment PrepCenter
Metrics and Evaluation
Evaluation is an important part of any economic development
strategy. Maintaining a consistent set of evaluative metrics
and measures not only sheds light on whether or not program
objectives are being met, but also facilitates consistent and
cohesive measurement.
There are basic measures that will help monitor progress,
including unemployment, labor force participation,
educational attainment, poverty status, household and per
capita income. These measures can be taken periodically
from census data, for example by using the American
Community Survey, and inform the general socio-economic
progress over time. There are also more creative metrics that
can be used to measure whether or not the economic
development objectives set forth in this document are being
met. As a reminder, the objectives are:
 Stimulate private investment while promoting
community ownership.
 Build institutional capacity for community-based
economic change
 Create revenue and employment generating
opportunities on the Jordan Downs site
In order to evaluate the progress toward these particular
objectives, it will be important to measure private investment
in number of dollars into the area annually, as well as a
measurement of what percentage of that investment came
from what kinds of investors (including individuals or
businesses inside of Watts vs institutional investors, etc.).
Generally, it will be important to evaluate how the
retail/commercial portion of the development is faring by
keeping detailed records about the number of newtenants,
time it takes to attract new tenants and length of tenure.
Sales tax can be used to better estimate the revenue
generating capacity of establishments. To measure the
progress it will also be critical to analyze information about
new business creation in and around the site, and to keep
profiles on who the new business owners are (i.e. previous
existing enterprises that are relocating to the retail center,
resident-owned enterprises, etc.). In order to establish to
what extent these businesses are impacting employment, it
will be necessary to keep detailed measurements of how
many positions are created or maintained each year.
In addition to measuring private investment and business
creation, it will be important to periodically evaluate the
success of the jobs training aspect of the Human Capital plan,
which will help inform the efficacy of the training programs.
Critical measures include the number of consultations given
each year, the number of job placements made on a monthly
basis, and to consistently monitor where the individuals are
being placed so that employers who are taking on residents
can be approached for improved information on neededskills.
It will also be essential to measure how many new industry
organizations, associations, and employers are brought into
the jobs placement network each year.
Measuring the institutional capacity for community-based
change will require careful identification and monitoring inthe
area of organizations that can help strengthen the economic
fabric of the Jordan Downs redevelopment initiative. This
includes maintaining catalogues of the various organizations
that are involved and consistently evaluating whether or not
their agreed upon contributions are being met, and identifying
where there may be underutilized capacity in these
organizations.
As the project continues to develop, these measurements and
evaluative metrics can facilitate year to year improvements in
terms of investment, business creation, employment
generation, and institutional change. As the institutional
capacity grows and economic coordination improves, the
change will be steadily reflected in more dollars invested into
the area, the legitimization of exisiting businesses and the
creation of new resident-owned enterprises, the upgrading of
surrounding businesses into bigger employment generators,
and the steady increase in revenue generated from the
retail/commercial component of the development.
Why These Recommendations?
The recommendations and overall strategy set forth in this
report are intended to complement and build upon the
current framework for initiating economic change in the
Jordan Downs redevelopment. Without utilizing many of the
recommended economic development tools, there are
opportunities that may never be realized, like the provisionof
resident-owned enterprises to ensure community ownership
in driving and sustaining economic regeneration in the area.
The most important recommendation is the development of a
community development corporation, and more generally
that the area needs to improve institutional capacity for
economic development. A core institution is critical to
developing and maintaining the redevelopment’s economic
vision, coordinating a large range of economic actors and
participants, ensuring community-based ownership over
economic redevelopment, and effectively monitoring how
projects and activities are working together to produce
enhanced economic opportunities and outcomes for Jordan
Downs current and future residents.
The subsequent recommendations are intended to be a set of
strategies, tools and projects that can be placed under the
purview of the community development corporation.
Without these tools and strategies the development risks
missing an opportunity to transition the current residents into
employment and revenue generating ventures even before
the upper income residents move into the completed market
rate apartments. Moreover, the development risks
perpetuating a culture of unemployment, low labor force
participation, and financial dependency. Alternatively, such a
new and high profile development risks displacement of
current residents who cannot keep up with the pace of
development in the area.
Conclusion: Re:Working
Jordan Downs
Jordan Downs is a community with the potential to benefit
enormously from this cataclysmic, mix-income redevelopment
project. Promoting principles of livability, equity and
sustainability, the Jordan Downs Master Plan re-envisions this
traditional public housing community as a place of positive
change and development.
To ensure the long-term viability of this plan, it is critical that
the economic development aspect of this plan isenhanced
and thoroughly connected to the decisions made and
opportunities available in other elements of the plan, notably
transportation and land use. Los Angeles’ transit revolution
will continue to increase connectivity to Watts from other
areas of Los Angeles, providing valuable opportunities in
employment. At the same time, unique land use in this area
poises this development to be an example of successful live-
work community that generates both revenue and
employment. With a young population that is ripe for training
and workforce preparation, Jordan Downs is also endowed
with a unique human capital potential that must be cultivated
and guided to avoid underutilization. Much of the economic
opportunity that awaits Watts residents lie in these unique
land use and transportation aspects of the Master Plan and
unleashing the economic potential of Jordan Downs residents,
which this report intentionally built off of.
In order for the Jordan Downs redevelopment initiative to be
successful it will be important to consider how the
community’s economic and social resources can be mobilized
to achieve community-based, enhanced outcomes and
opportunities. To better facilitate cohesive development and
to maximize the potential of the Jordan Downs future growth,
a number of recommendation and strategies have been
outlined in this report that promote community ownership,
investment, and job and revenue generating activities under a
framework of improved institutional capacity for economic
change.
Works Cited
Social Explorer Tables: ACS 2008 to 2012 (5-Year Estimates) (SE),
ACS 2008 -- 2012 (5-Year Estimates), Social Explorer; U.S. Census
Bureau
Schubert, M. F., & Thresher, A. (1996, April). Lessons from the
Field: Three Case Studies of Mixed - Income Housing
Development [Scholarly project]. In University of Chicago- Illinois.
Retrieved from
http://uic.edu/cuppa/gci/publications/workingpaperseries/pdfs/
Lessons%20from%20the%20Field.pdf
Fraser, J. C., Chaskin, R. J., & Bazuin, J. T. (2013). Making Mixed-
Income Neighborhoods Work for Low-Income
Households. Cityscape: A Journal of Policy Development and
Research, 15(2), 83-100. Retrieved from
http://www.huduser.org/portal/periodicals/cityscpe/vol15num2
/ch6.pdf
McCormick, Naomi, Mark Joseph, and Robert Chaskin.2012.
“The New Stigma of Relocated
Public Housing Residents: Challenges to Social Identity in Mixed-
Income Developments,” City and
Community 11 (3): 285–308
Joseph, Mark, Robert Chaskin, and Henry Webber. 2007. “The
Theoretical Basis for Addressing
Poverty Through Mixed-Income Development,” UrbanAffairs
Review 42 (3): 369–409
Kleit, Rachel, and Lynne Manzo. 2006. “To Move or Not To Move:
Relationships to Place and
Relocation Choices in HOPE VI,” Housing Policy Debate 17 (2):
271–308.
The Watts Community Studio (Publication). (2013, July/August).
Retrieved
http://wattscommunitystudio.files.wordpress.com/2014/01/wcs
-final-report.pdf
Blakely, E. J., & Leigh, N. G. (2010). Planning local economic
development: Theory and practice. Thousand Oaks, Ca.:Sage.
Conley, D. (1999). Getting into the Black: Race, Wealth, and
Public Policy.Political Science Quarterly, 114(4), 595-612. doi:
10.2307/2657785
Venkatesh, S. A. (2000). American project: The rise and fall of a
modern ghetto. Cambridge, MA: Harvard UniversityPress.
Urban Land Institute: An Advisory Services Panel Report: Jordan
Downs, Los Angeles (Rep.). (2009). Washington D.C.: Urban Land
Institute.
Primestor Retail Market Analysis: Jordan Downs (Rep.). (2011).
Primestor.com.
Multi-family Market Forecast 2013 Report (Publication). (2013).
Los Angeles, CA: USC Lusk Center.
WRT Solomon . (2010, December). Envision Watts: Envision
Jordan Downs [Community-Based Master Plan for Jordan
Downs].

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Writing Sample (1)

  • 1. Student Identification Number: 68 ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT | SPRING 2014 Update to the Economic Development Strategy, Jordan Downs Housing Redevelopment Client: HACLA, Master Developer Los Angeles, CA Re:Working Jordan Downs PLANNING ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT FOR A COMMUNITY MOVING FORWARD “LOCAL ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT IS ACHIEVED WHEN A COMMUNITY’S STANDARD OF LIVING CAN BE PRESERVED AND INCREASED THROUGH A PROCESS OF HUMAN AND PHYSICAL DEVELOPMENT THAT IS BASED ON PRINCIPLES OF EQUITY AND SUSTAINABILITY.” - BLAKELY & LEIGH, PLANNING LOCAL ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT (2010)
  • 2. EXECUTIVE SUMMARY Jordan Downs resides in an area with the largest concentration of public housing west of the Mississippi. As part of an ambitious effort to improve the affordable housing dynamics for families across Los Angeles, the Jordan Downs redevelopment seeks to catalyze change in Watts through this four-phased development that includes a mix of residential and commercial functions in a sustainable and healthy environment. This experimental, mix-income development has a number of obstacles that it must overcome for success; many of these obstacles relate to the economic and social fabric of the area, which has been impacted by significant disinvestment over the years. By surveying the community’s assets and critically analyzing the state of the Community Master Plan, it becomes clear that the plan fails to map the pathway for economic redevelopment of the area, revealing challenges currently left unaddressed and opportunities that may not be realized. Jordan Downs possesses distinctions from other public housing redevelopments across the country, but a historical review of public housing and mix-income conversion in the United States highlight the importance of planning for economic development and growth. Previous case studies reveal that while the provision of improved housing will surely ignite a wider redevelopment effort in the neighborhood of Watts, it is important to recognize that conditions must be created to facilitate the successful transition of this community from a socio-economically and geographically isolated cluster of poverty into a thriving mix-income community. Like many past projects of its type, although the Master Plan has a clear vision and development objectives, it is less obvious how this sustainable housing development will be accompanied by sustainable economic development. This report seeks to suggest a number of ways that the community of Jordan Downs can seize the moment of opportunity that results from new development while promoting long-term economic independence of its residents. Focusing on institutional capacity building, human capital development, small business development and entrepreneurship, and the creative mobilization of local and regional assets, the recommendations in this report are intended to facilitate the fulfillment of a core set of economic development objectives:  Stimulate private investment while promoting community ownership.  Build institutional capacity for community-based economic change  Create revenue and employment generating opportunities on the Jordan Downs site
  • 3. PART I: Introductionand Problem Framing The Jordan Downs Redevelopment Increasing densification across Los Angeles is presenting new opportunities for dense, mix-use, mix-income, and livable communities. The Jordan Downs Redevelopment Initiative is at the forefront of this opportunity, with a Master Plan that seeks to catalyze change in the Watts area by reinvisioning affordable housing and community improvement. Part of a larger effort initiated by former Mayor Antonio Villaraigosa to solve the affordable housing crisis in Los Angeles, the project is symbolic of revitalized efforts in Los Angeles and around the country to replace old public housing stock with bustling mix-income communities. Project Site The project at Jordan Downs is an ambitious, mix-use, mix- income development. In addition to the one-to-one replacement of the current 700 public housing units, 700units will be added to the site, featuring a mix of architectural styles and designs. Due to the creative phasing process the developer is utilizing, all current residents will be remain on site and will be redistributed around the development as it is being built. At 106.4 acres, the development also includes the designation of 100,000 square feet of retail/commercial space, or otherwise designated “employment land”. Contextualizing Redevelopment at Jordan Downs: Local and Regional Trends Local Trends: Jordan Downs Redevelopment and Master Plan Jordan Downs is located in a site that has been plagued by its notoriety and infamy for crime, gang activity, and low educational and economic opportunity. However, recent efforts to improve the schooling system and law enforcement system is yielding positive progress for the residents of this community. Given the right attention and commitment, a number of regional trends poise this development forsuccess. Regional Trends: Los Angeles County and its Economy This project comes after a period of steep decline for the Los Angeles region, as evidenced by the relatively high poverty rates. A number of contracting industries, notably manufacturing and aerospace/defense, directly impacted the Jordan Downs area, which was originally conceived as an industrial enclave to support manufacturing defenseactivities. Despite the recent and pro-longed decline, there are a number of trends that coincide neatly with the development of Jordan Downs. A renewed interest in inner city living has brought the children of baby boomers (and boomers and empty nesters themselves) out of the suburbs and back into the inner city, as people increasingly seek proximity to transit lines and the “buzz” that inner city amenities offer. The sub- prime mortgage crisis, it appears, has chipped away at the American fixation with single family homes, and demand for
  • 4. apartments in the region are increasing markedly (Multi- Family Market Forecast, 2013). And, more importantly, there seems to be a shortage of supply with the last few years characterized by very little new development throughout Los Angeles County. The shortage of available housing is evident in the high cost of living and high rents in the County, where some spend upwards of 50% of annual income on rent. In the area surrounding Jordan Downs, this number approaches49%, so the addition of units to the area will be welcomed. These are all positive indicators for the Jordan Downs redevelopment initiative. The County has also begun aggressively pursuing the development of a number of critical sectors for future employment, which are of particular importance to the employment aspirations for residents. Notably industries in the area include Fashion, Entertainment/Emerging Media Technology, Analytical Instruments, Aerospace, Information Technology, Business Services, Food Manufacturing, and a variety of Green industries. As a traditional site for manufacturing production, Los Angeles County is poised to take advantage of a number of new technologies that are transforming the aforementioned industries, such as additive, advanced and green manufacturing. The new emphasis not only on product innovation but process innovation offers important opportunities for new job creation and industrial revitalization in Los Angeles County—and thus important opportunities for the residents of Jordan Downs given its proximity to large industrial areas. Jordan Downs will also be well positioned to take advantage of LA’s transit revolution. A number of new lines are being constructed around the city and larger region, giving residents of Jordan Down direct access to the new economic and employment developments in the surrounding areas through their connection to the Blue Line. Report Methodology This report is comprised of two parts. Part I features a critical analysis of the Master Plan and site location from a variety of perspectives in planning, included land use, transportation and economic development, and seeks to identify some key trends that may be impacting the development. The majority of this analysis is anchored in site visits, client interviews, demographic and socio-economic census data, as well other informing documents and market studies that have been conducted about the Jordan Downsdevelopment. Building off of this analysis, Part II contains the proposed solutions and recommendations for enhancing the economic development aspect of the Master Plan. Part II begins with an overview of public housing and mix income housing in the United States in order to better understand what some of the general challenges have been associated with these developments. Using this analysis to inform the SWOT conducted in Part I, Part II will also feature the proposed vision, strategy and implementation plan for improving economic development outcomes at Jordan Downs.
  • 5. Summary of Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities andThreats Demographic Strengths Weaknesses Opportunities Threats -High density area -Concentration of youth -Racial tension resulting from diversity -High poverty -Burgeoning workforce because of school-age population -Very low educational attainment for adult population Land Use -Opportunity to create vibrant live-work community -Limited availability of non- residential property for economic development -Surrounding commercial/industrial zoned properties -Potential live/work -Presence of non- contributing industrial parcels -High surrounding vacancy Transportation -Located near major freeways for business -Nearby Metro station -Poor circulation -Safety inhibits pedestrian/cycling transportation -Create a walkable/bikeable community -High public transit usage -Safety concerns -Pollution from proximity to major thoroughfares/ freeways Cultural -Rich cultural institutions and vibrant social atmosphere -Proximity to Watts Towers -Negative cultural capital associated with the Watts area -Difficult cultural and ethnic tensions within the community -Re-Brand Watts and public housing in Jordan Downs -Perpetuation of cultural baggage associated with the area Economic Development -Proximity to many markets -Access to industrial clusters in region -Entrepreneurship -Welfare dependent population -Few employment generators (disinvestment) -Weak retail, especially in food -Unrecognized informal economy -Creative re-use/upgrading of non-contributing industrial parcels -Take advantage of proximity to industrial activities -Designated land area for “employment” uses -Inability to create long term economic self sufficiency -Create opportunities that cater to a range of skills -Newly developed retail district nearby
  • 6. Demographics Figure 1 gives an aerial view of the census tracts that were selected for analysis. The U-shaped lot represents the site area, and the communities to the north-west and south represent the direct neighborhood. The tract that represents the eastern border of the site area was not selected as part of the demographic analysis, as this tract primarily contains industrially zoned parcels that feature commercialenterprises. As such, it did not prove helpful in better contextualizing the demographics of the Jordan Downs population surrounding community. FIGURE 1 - CENSUS TRACTS 2420, 2421, 2430 (SOURCE: SOCIAL EXPLORER) FIGURE 2 – AGE DISTRIBUTION OF TRACTS VS LOS ANGELES COUNTY (SOURCE: SOCIAL EXPLORER) The primary strength and opportunity in terms of the demographics of Jordan Downs lies in the age distribution of the community, which features a much younger population than the average in the County of Los Angeles. This represents an important opportunity from an economic development perspective, as the availability of human capital increasingly determines locational attractiveness to industry and employers (Blakely & Leigh, 2010). Undoubtedly the primary weaknesses and threats of this community pertain to the low educational attainment, as demonstrated by Figure 3, and the high concentration of poverty in the area, which boasts a population where 48.5% of individuals are living below the poverty line, compared to just over 24% in the County of Los Angeles (ACS, 2012). The AGE DISTRIBUTION All Tracts LA County 16.0% 14.0% 12.0% 10.0% 8.0% 6.0% 4.0% 2.0% 0.0% Under 5 to 9 10 to 15 to 18 to 25 to 35 to 45 to 55 to 65 to 75 to 85 5 Years Years 14 17 24 34 44 54 64 74 84 Years Years Years Years Years Years Years Years Years Years and
  • 7. 2 demonstrates, one of the largest age groups are people under 18, making this an ideal time to implement a robust school to work program at Jordan High School. Land Use The Master Plan has been constructed to take place in a space with a particularly unique combination of zoning, which includes residences, a school, an urban garden, and commercial and industrial land. FIGURE 3 – EDUCATIONAL ATTAINMENT IN TRACTS VS LA COUNTY (SOURCE: SOCIAL EXPLORER ) median annual income is just over $10,000, signifying the gravity of the situation. Moreover, while there is a young population in the Jordan Downs area which represents a rich potential workforce, without the right educational and employment interventions this population risks reflecting current trends of workforce underutilized, as the current labor force participation in the area is only around 50%, compared to the County of Los Angeles at just over 61% (ACS, 2012). In order to take advantage of this burgeoning workforce, rigorous strategies must be implemented that incorporate job training and readiness. These programs must integrate the local high school students and community colleges. As Figure While this combination of land uses may initially be considered a weakness for the project, the mix of uses is rare in dense urban communities now, and can be exploited to turn the site into a vibrant live-work community. If, for example, the currently non-participating industrial/commercially zoned parcels can be incorporated into the overall development plans, there is tremendous opportunity to create sources of employment directly next to residents, in addition FIGURE 4 – LAND USE MAP (SOURCE: JORDAN DOWNS MASTER PLAN) EDUCATIONAL ATTAINMENT LA County All Tracts Doctorate degree Professional school degree or more Master's degree or more Bachelor's degree or more Some college or more High School Graduate or more… Less Than High School 0.0%10.0%20.0%30.0%40.0%50.0%60.0%70.0%80.0%90.0%
  • 8. to providing a site for on the site training and learning activities for the neighboring high school. From this perspective, there is great capacity to turn the Jordan Downs area into a high quality, middle class, work-live area. Figure 4 demonstrates this unique pairing of uses and reveals the potential for use that has already been considered by the Master Plan. Transportation Another strength of the Master Plan is its aspiration to take advantage of the potential to transform Jordan Downs into a transit oriented development, due to its connection to the Blue Line and the relatively high public transit ridership rates for Watts residents vis-à-vis their Los Angeles County counterparts (Watts Community Studio, 2014). Moreover, the City and County of Los Angeles are currently planning to expand the Metro system around Los Angeles, which will increase the relative value of Watts being connected to the transit system as the region develops over the next 10 years. Going forward, the transportation plan could be more strongly connected to the economic development and retail aspirations for the area. Cultural The Jordan Downs redevelopment is located in an area that possesses unique cultural resources in the form of civic, social and religious institutions and organizations; however, it also possesses unique cultural baggage, mostly stemming from Watts’ reputation as a poverty stricken and unsafe neighborhood. Despite this reputation, there are a number of rich socio-cultural institutions in the area, such as the Watts Towers, which serve as an attraction for people around the world who visit Los Angeles. And while the area boasts a fairly long African American history, an influx of foreign born residents since the 1990’s has contributed to diversifying the cultural influences in the area, creating a rich atmosphere for residents and visitors. It is critical that in the process of “rebranding” the neighborhood that these cultural assets are routinely mapped and continuously updated so that cultural contributions can be maximized. Economic Development Watts has been confronted with obstacles in stimulating economic development in this area. The high concentration of public housing, chronic disinvestment, and lack of employment opportunities has rendered the Jordan Downs community and the surrounding area largely welfare dependent. This may prove a challenge for encouraging private investment in the area, in addition to providing obstacles in attracting renters for the market-rate units that will be part of the new development. One oversight of the Master Plan is that it does not account for a long-term strategy for initiating economic transformation in the area, and it does not address how the development plans to attract a range of skill levels and incomes to the property. While the housing development will undoubtedly be attractive and will ensure a high quality of amenities, its success is dependent on its ability to attract the right mix of tenants.
  • 9. FIGURE 5 - OCCUPANCY STATUS AT CENSUS TRACTS (SOURCE: SOCIAL EXPLORER) As it is, Figure 5 demonstrates the already elevated vacancy rates, and while the occupancy rates at Jordan Downs are high, the high vacancy rate of the surrounding neighborhood is a negative indicator for strong market demand in this area. At the same time, however, gross rents as a percentage of income are relatively high in the area (ACS 2012), which would indicate a pressure on supply that this development complex would relieve. A ULI technical assistance study conducted for the site focused heavily on the lack of attention paid in the Master Plan to economic sustainability and the creation of long-term fiscal independence for the area itself. Indeed, while there is extensive discussion of job training and “employment land”, there is very little detail about what kinds of economic development projects will accompany the development to ensure that the development of the area can keep up with the level of development being taken on by the Jordan Downs redevelopment initiative. There is no identification of a partnering economic development institution, signaling an institutional capacity problem, and this results in a lack of long-term consideration for the industrial and commercial development for the area. Despite the ambiguity associated with its use, however, the designated employment land offers some of the most promising opportunities for catalytic economic development projects. While the Watts area generally suffers from low institutional capacity in the area of economic development, there are a number of opportunities to unleash economic potential and a home-grown entrepreneurial spirit that characterizes the Jordan Downs population and its neighbors in the surrounding census tracts (Urban Land Institute, 2009). Moreover, as previously discussed in land use, there is tremendous opportunity to take advantage of the mix of land use zones in the area and to incorporate the industrial/commercial parcels located on the site area, but that are not currently participating in the development. There is also opportunity to help expand and grow the existing commercial and retail enterprises in the surrounding area, thereby incorporating more of the areas pre-existing economic assets into the strategy for long-term success in the area. The following section will build on this analysis by further detailing the state of economic development at JordanDowns, discussing the economic vision for the area, and suggesting a number of recommendations and implementation projects that comprise the strategic economic development plan for the Jordan Downs Redevelopment Initiative. OCCUPANCY STATUS Occupied Vacant 105.0% 100.0% 95.0% 90.0% 85.0% 80.0% All Tracts LA County
  • 10. PART II: Economic Development at Jordan Downs Primary Challenges Creative Phasing- There are a number of reasons why this development project may suffer unique obstacles, but also offer unique opportunities relative to other development projects throughout US history. While it shares a commonality with many new mix-income affordable housing projects in that it is being redeveloped, not built from scratch, the residents will be relocated on site during construction, which creates unique opportunities and challenges from an economic development perspective. Disruption to community members from construction will be prolonged because of the phasing; however, the retail and commercial space can be developed immediately in part because there will be residents to service from inception of Phase 1. From this perspective, the project has unique revenue and employment generating capacity even before completion. Experimental Locational Choice- Additionally, while mix- income projects are not entirely new, they are a relatively new experiment for the region, especially in the area selected. A very difficult past has resulted in negative associations with the communities’ level of economic opportunity and general safety, so incentivizing individuals to move into the market rate apartments may be more difficult given the recent historical development of Jordan Downs. And, while the community has identified some potential employers, there is little incentivizing high skill individuals to move to this community because the jobs do not correspond with theirskill level. Moreover, there is extremely low employment on site, and the current strategy to transition a financially dependent population into long-term economic self-sufficiency is underdeveloped. WATTS TOWERS (PHOTO CREDIT: STUDENT 68) Community Disinvestment and Regional Decline- Stimulating meaningful employment will also be difficult, as the area must combat chronic disinvestment over the years, and more generally the Los Angeles region has lost manyjobs that directly impact the skill level/demographic in the Watts/Jordan Downs area. Fewer large employer
  • 11. opportunities in the area also have consequences forstrategic economic development planning, in that most economic growth must come from small to medium sized businesses. Furthermore, the development will be situated in a largely developed, dense, mostly residential area of Los Angeles. This means that there is little available undeveloped land, so intensive cataloguing of vacant properties will be important for identifying local commercial/industrial redevelopment opportunities. Diversity- Finally, this community has a diverse population and a mix of foreign and native born residents. The high volume of undocumented individuals (and their informal businesses) on site, however, has made it difficultto estimate the true economic power of the area, further eluding investors (Urban Land Institute, 2009). Unique racial tensions in this community between African Americans and Latinos, which have arisen in part because of conflict over an increasingly limited supply of low-mid skill jobs, will undoubtedly need to be accounted for in this redevelopment initiative. Primary Opportunities A Community on the Rise- Generally speaking, there are some strong indicators that put this community potentially at the forefront of opportunity. Crime rates are decreasing for Watts and notably in the Jordan Downs community, the schools are showing remarkable improvement after being taken over by PLAS, and a lack of quality amenities in the area signifies good opportunity and ensures little duplication of services. A general dirth of quality services in thesurrounding area will also make this redevelopment attractive, as willthe provision of increased affordable housing. SITE PLAN (SOURCE: MASTER PLAN) Retail/Commercial Development Center- One very positive opportunity for this development is the retail and commercial development, which will provide much needed services to the community and take advantage of the over 350 million dollar unmet service demand in the area (Primestor, 2011). As demonstrated by the image on page 16 from the Primestor Retail Market Analysis, the location of the new retail in the northeast corner of the development will provide much needed amenities to Jordan Downs residents, and their north- ward neighbors. The population and traffic density of this neighborhood should also prove attractive to national retailers, despite the limiting bounds of the primary tradearea Retail/Employment
  • 12. and low income of residents (Primestor, 2011). Additionally, the Jobs Resources Center and generally designated “Employment Land” offers valuable opportunities for community-owned ventures, as well as a site for coordinating employment training and job placements. Culture of Entrepreneurship- Extensive opportunity also lies in what is currently under regulated economic activity, or the “gray economy” in the form of unrealized entrepreneurship and economic potential for small businesses that need legitimization. One of the primary reasons this investment is not being currently made is that there is a large under-ground economy in the area, probably stemming from (1) ) illegal transactions (2) unregulated enterprises (3) undocumented workers running enterprises. As noted in the ULI panel, there is a very strong entrepreneurial spirit in the community of Jordan Downs; however, these activities are not being directed or coached in a way that makes their enterprises more official (read: tax-paying and recognized by outside investors). Resurgence of the Inner City- Michael Porter highlights the economic opportunity of the inner city in his work, “The Competitive Advantage of the Inner City” (1995). The issue of unrealized purchasing power in the inner city has long been discussed, often in tandem with new trends of the resurgence of the inner city. In Jordan Downs, one of the biggest economic opportunities lies in this resurgence. Around the country we are seeing reversing suburban, “white flight” trends, as people seek to be located closer to downtown and seek to live on transit connections. Moreover, recent and steadily growing demand for multifamily housing, mix use housing, and the decline of prominence of the single family house positions this development as contemporary andfitting current trends of urbanization. These opportunities are not being realized because this area has not yet been a target of new interest, in part because of the history of crime and poverty that plagues the Watts area. LOCAL BUSINESSES (PHOTO CREDIT: STUDENT 68) Neighboring Businesses- Another major economic opportunity for the Jordan Downs community lies in the pre- existing businesses on and around the site, (which include former industrial manufacturing site and a recycling center). If the owners of these parcels can be incentivized to participate in the development there is opportunity to create jobs and economic opportunity in expanded recycling or manufacturing facilities, which can be complemented by a green design program at the high school. The opportunity has not been realized yet because until now, the project has failed to incentivize these non-contributing structures and their owners to participate in the development.
  • 13. Community Assets In crafting an economic development strategy for the Jordan Downs Redevelopment Initiative it is important to consider the relevant community assets. This recognition of assets is the first step to mobilizing community resources around the objective of improved economic outcomes for residents. The assets of the Jordan Downs community include:  Geographical and Locational Advantages: The Jordan Downs development is located in the center of one of the United States’ most important economies, with transportation connections to the region’s commercial and industrial center of downtown and the trade center of the LA/Long Beach ports.  Designated Employment Lands: While the use of these properties has not been officially determined, the presence of these parcels provides the potential for a vibrant live-work community on the Jordan Downs site.  Non-participating Parcels: The currently non- contributing parcels to the project contain a recycling center and a manufacturing facility. These pre-existing businesses offer valuable tax revenue and opportunity for employment and training collaboration.  Proximity to Thriving Workforce and Business Development Agencies: While the direct area ofWatts does not have particularly strong economic leadership, there are some neighboring employment training agencies, and the County of Los Angeles features 7 Workforce Investment Boards, which may prove critical for financing a larger workforce development strategy in Watts.  Young, Entrepreneurial Population: Around 50% of the Jordan Downs community is under the age of 18, providing a potentially rich source of labor for economic development and growth. More importantly, the area reports a high level of natural entrepreneurship among residents, which is promising for new business development.  Cultural, Social and Religious Institutions: Jordan Downs has a thriving public life that includes many families and is facilitated by a wide, diverse rangeof neighborhood institutions. Economic Development in the Master Plan The Master Plan gives an important view into how the various aspects of the plan, such as land use and transportation, will function independently and also together. From the perspective of an economic development planner, the Master Plan is successful at integrating revenue generating property into the development. There are various parcels that have been designated for employment uses of various types,which will complement the housing development well. At times, however, a major weakness of the Master Plan is economic development and its disconnection from some aspects of the plan. While there was continuous mention of workforce development programs in the “Human Capital” section, and the plan did indeed cite a number of local and regional potential employers, it seems insufficient to fill the need of the residents, especially given the poor employment prospects in nearby areas. There are two potentially revenue and job creating parcels that do not seem to beconsidered,
  • 14. and these non-participating parcels are rarely addressed inthe Plans in a meaningful way, which is not positive given their potential to disrupt the project and the environment the project seeks to create. The plan also tends to promote the concept of sustainability as it relates to health and environment, but does not extend principles of sustainability to the economic plans for the area. Community Outcomes: Rebuilding Jordan Downs It is critical that any economic development strategy for Jordan Downs emphasize job creation and pathways to economic independence for residents. Currently, the economic development strategy set forth by the plan emphasizes job readiness—but it is unclear where thesejobs does not stratify residents by their occupation. Additionally, an economic development strategy can guide industrial and commercial development in the area, so that all new or infill development projects maximize the potential for useful industrial clusters and exploit economies of scope and scale. From Past to Present: Lessons from Public and Mix-Income Housing will be. To ensure long term economic self-sufficiency and retention of current residents, it is critical to think about immediate job creators for the community. In drafting a strategy around job creation, and by thinking ahead about job creation, the community can plan for an industry/sector opportunity that will match the employment needs of the community, that it is feasible, and that it can eventually grow to offer a range of employment opportunities that will fit the needs of a multi-income community. Additionally, there is always the well-known risk of gentrification when new development projects are introduced into an area. In order to avoid this problem, an economic development strategic plan can account for community ownership, and can advocate for planning for industries that will service the range of job skills available in the area. This is especially critical for a mix-income project to succeed that Public housing is an obstacle confronted by local,regional, state and federal governments around the world. Before proposing a more detailed economic development strategy for the community at Jordan Downs, it is important to first review the history of public and mix-income housing developments in the United States. The following historical overview serves to inform the site-specific analysis as to the challengesassociated with this type of redevelopment, and provides some analogous examples to draw lessons from.
  • 15. Public Housing in the United States Public housing projects have had a history of difficulty in facilitating residents achieving prosperity and economic self- sufficiency; this is largely a result of the fact that most public housing projects have generated social and economic network isolation for their residents, thereby limiting financial self- sufficiency and increasing the concentration ofpoverty. There is another large, but somewhat hidden problem in the dynamics of public housing and long-term economic welfare, which lies in the issue of the “cycle of poverty”, or inter- generational poverty. While originally conceived as temporary, most public housing became permanent for certain key demographics and families, notably African Americans and more recently Latinos. In particular, African Americans were often placed in public housing post-WWII, at the same time that many predominantly white veterans were returning and taking advantage of generous GI bills and national housing policies, leading to the accumulation of assets for one group and the loss of assets to another. This (LEFT TO RIGHT) - AERIAL VIEW OF ROBERT TAYLOR HOMES, CHICAGO (PHOTO CREDIT: SKYSCRAPECITY.COM); JORDAN DOWNS AERIAL VIEW (SOURCE: MASTER PLAN) analyzed above. Segregated and away from the city, the Robert Taylor homes were built in a similar fashion to the Jordan Downs project, but on a much larger scale. The apartment buildings were isolated in the south side of the city in block style formation, leading to similar issues shared by Jordan Downs residents was in turn exacerbated by the issue of red-lining. Because public housing never functioned in the temporary manner in which it was originally conceived, these projects contributed enormously to the cycle of inter-generational poverty through the issue of inter-generational asset inequality (Conley, 1999), which characterizes the phenomenon of differences in asset accumulation dictating the relative and unjust economic outcomes of American youth. The Robert Taylor homes, which are often cited as an example of failed public housing, illustrate many of the failures such as poor sight lines and a general lack of safetyembedded into the built environment. Originally hailed as a hall mark of the great American Life, these buildings were constructed as a temporary solution for families that needed time to get on their feet and realize economic independence; however, the geographic isolation and lack of connection to employment generators destined this community for failure. Before it was destroyed, field researchers discovered that many residents had spent upwards of thirty years in these homes (Venkatesh, 2000).
  • 16. Key Finding: One of the most important takeaways from the Robert Taylor homes, and others like it, is that public housing projects are often destined to fail unless they aremeaningfully connected to employment areas. Without a route to economic self-sufficiency, public housing projects tend to feed into cyclical poverty rather than disrupt it. Mix Income Conversion Converting public housing projects into mix-income developments has become an important trend in the sphere of social housing. The trend is largely built on a philosophy that mixing incomes will reduce stigmatization of public housing, especially because all tenants are living in the same type of housing, regardless of socio-economic difference, thus mitigating the image of public housing as neglected and crime- ridden. Furthermore, the idea of mixing incomes is intended to democratize the economic and social networks in the project area, disrupting negative social and economic networks and introducing new opportunity forresidents. A number of these projects have taken place around the country, and while there has been substantial celebration of their success there are also important lessons to be learned for the Jordan Downs community. Of primary importance is the issue of stigmatization, and how stigmas have been found to live on even after the relocation of families into mixed income communities. Residents in mix income Chicago projects reported that while the stigma of living in public housing subsided, they experienced new and intensified stigma. One study remarked that many residents felt a negative response from higher-income residents, and that the strict screening and rule enforcement amplified a sense of difference among residents, especially as lower-income residents were targeted (McCormick, Joseph & Chaskin 2012). Results from another study reflect more general attitudes that have evolved around welfare culture since the inception of public housing, and highlight the potential negative social issues that result from employment discrepancies in a culture where “employment is considered a pre-requisite right to claiming government benefits” (Fraser, Chaskin & Buzuin, 2013). Furthermore, there has been no evidence that demonstrates that living in a mixed-income environment breaks the poverty cycle, moves people into the workforce (Chaskin et al., 2012), or removes social barriers (Chaskin and Joseph, 2011, 2010; Kleit and Manzo, 2006) As noted earlier in this report, the Master Plan documents do not provide very rich material that delineates how the economic transformation of the Jordan Downs community is going to happen. The ULI technical panel observed repeatedly that homes will not catalyze transformation, that there must be some economic catalyst that accompanies this project, and as we have seen this has been true for many projects that hoped to achieve neighborhood transformation through the provision of new housing, public or market rate. This review of public housing should highlight the importance of an economic development plan that will offer immediate employment opportunities for low-income residents so that they may begin the transition into work prior to upper-income residents moving in. Furthermore, there is a difficult task of incentivizing economic opportunities that provide jobs for a
  • 17. range of skills and wages—this is a critical element of a successful mix-income community. Unless there are opportunities for all people on the income spectrum, Jordan Downs will have a difficult time attracting the right mix of residents. POLL FROM THE JORDAN DOWNS RESIDENTS CONFIRM RECENT TRENDS IN PUBLIC HOUSING DEVELOPMENTS (SOURCE: HUMAN CAPITAL PLAN) Key Finding: This review sheds important light on the project at Jordan Downs, and how economic development planning will be a critical strategy in mitigating potential feelings of socio-economic tensions and differences that can result from a community environment in which some individuals feel that their work is subsidizing the non-work of others (currently only 24% of residents indicate they are employed). Mix- income developments will be most successful if everyone in the development who wants to be income producing is income producing. The Strategy: Economic Development at Jordan Downs The Vision for Jordan Downs A major emphasis of this development project has been providing residents with the services they need, whether the services relate to mental health or the availability of high quality retail. As such, the economic development vision for Jordan Downs should be responsive to the needs of the community as well, while simultaneously promotingeconomic self-sufficiency and long-term, sustainable growth. Throughout a number of studies the most commonly reported concern of residents pertains to the lack of current employment availabilities and opportunities. At the same time, the majority of the population is under 18, providing a potentially large pool of trainable workers to stimulategrowth and development in the area. As such, the economic vision set forth for Watts in this document has been constructed to emphasize the recognition of community-based entrepreneurship, the need for direct job creators and job readiness programs, and the importance of connecting these developments to the local education system, notably Jordan High School.
  • 18. Economic Development Objectives  Stimulate private investment while promoting community ownership  Facilitate growth without displacement to achieve goal of development  Build institutional capacity for community-based economic change  Ensure the long-term organizational management and coordination of economic development projects/activities in the area  Create revenue and employment generating opportunities on the Jordan Downs site  It is critical that the Jordan Downs Master Plan maximizes job creation opportunities, as this is the primary concern of its residents Recommendations To achieve the economic development objectives delineated in this report, and to facilitate the creation of a long-term economic development strategy for the Jordan Downs Redevelopment Initiative, the following recommendations are set forth: Create a Community DevelopmentCorporation. It is widely observed in economic development theory that there are two primary aspects of economic development, resources and capacity (Blakely & Leigh, 2010). Often economic development planners focus on resources (such as human capital, natural resources, location, entrepreneurial climate, etc.) but fail to consider the multiplying effect of resources when there is strong institutional capacity to develop and coordinate these resources. Currently, the Jordan Downs Redevelopment has a number of resources at their disposal, including a large supply of labor, entrepreneurship, and proximity to large markets across southern California. The Jordan Downs community, and Watts more generally, does not have the capacity to work with all of its resources. This observation initially came out of the analysis of the Master Plan, and was confirmed during a client interview with Kevin Rodin, who indicated regretfully that there was no partnering economic/community development institution and non-profit involved in the project. While health non-profits in the area had been collaborative with social services provision, he said, there is low institutional capacity in the area in terms of economic development. Implementation partners include: Watts CommunityStudio, Local Churches and Civic Organizations, West Angeles Community Development Corporation, Watts Labor and Community Action Committee (WLCAC) Turn the Jobs Resource Center into a Revenue and Employment GeneratingSpace. A number of independent surveys of the community demonstrated that the overwhelming pre-occupation of residents is with job availability and job training. This strategy proposes utilizing that space more effectively by dividing up its uses to be more productive. The recommendation is to
  • 19. subdivide the Jobs Resources Center by a first andsecond floor. SITE PLAN FOR COMMERCIAL CENTER AND JOBS RESOURCES FACILITY (SOURCE: MASTER PLAN) The first floor should be reserved for one or many community- owned and operated retail/food services enterprises— operations that directly employ residents, serve as training grounds for nearby high school students, and create direct lines of community investment in the economic success of the redevelopment. This is important as analyses of mix-income project point to the importance of community ownership and participation in directing and sustaining economic success in the area (Schubert & Thresher, 1996). The second floor of the Jobs Resources Center could be turned into a set of offices or other commercial spaces. The new community development corporation could house itself in an office designated on the second floor—other offices could be used as co-work and training spaces and small business incubators. Potential implementation partners include Michaels Group and BRIDGE Development partners, Jordan Downsresidents Establish a Small Business Development and Information Center. In a community survey conducted by the Watts Studio, a non- profit group in the area, 75% of the 700 residents surveyed identified business development information and mentorship as a leading choice when asked about program development (Watts Community Studio, 2014). By utilizing a range of free business development services that are offered around the Los Angeles area, the co-work space suggested in Recommendation #2 can be used as a training facility for community members hoping to expand their current business or to legitimize the pre-existing businesses that are informally operated as part of the “gray economy”. Moreover, using the retail study as a guide for what retail services are mostneeded in the community, Jordan Downs can focus on nurturing smaller establishments, especially since the site cannot support a big box retailer (Primestor, 2011). Potential implementation partners include business and entrepreneurship-based non-profits in and around Los Angeles (Los Angeles Urban League, SCORE for greater Los Angeles), higher educational institutions in business administration and finance (USC Marshall School, UCLA Anderson School), current businesses in the Watts area, Jordan Downs residents, Los Angeles Economic DevelopmentCorporation Jobs Resource Center
  • 20. Create a Community Development Finance Institution. In order to take advantage of the entrepreneurial spirit in the Jordan Downs area, this strategy also includes the creation of a community development finance institution (CDFI). CDFI’s can take many forms, but generally serve the function of providing credit and financial services to underserved population. There are a number of ways that this tool can be used to complement the activities of the community development corporation, for example by taking the form of a micro-enterprise development loan fund. Potential implementation partners include Los Angeles LDC (CDFI), Opportunity Finance Network, US Department of Treasury Collaborate with Leading Industry Groups andAssociations to Build Worker Pipelines. One of the primary foci of the Master Plan as it pertains to economic development was job training and employment readiness. The Master Plan identified a number of strategies to improve the skills training for the residents at Jordan Down, namely through the collaboration with local employers and workforce development/training centers. A critical strategy to enhancing potential jobs outcomes for workers will be forging meaningful professional connections between the job training services, Jordan High School, and the large industry groups around Los Angeles and the state. Many of these organizations, such as the California Network for Manufacturing Innovation, provide useful, industry-specific jobs training. At the same time, these organizations possess strong connections to the local employers in those industries and know what skills the employers need. By increasing network collaboration in key targeted industries and creating formal worker pipelines, it will be possible to improve the placement of residents after they receive training. Moreover, by involving industry associations there can be increased compatibility between training services offered and the actual jobs that are available. Potential implementation partners include: industry associations (aerospace, manufacturing, renewableenergy, fashion production and manufacturing, etc), employment training facilities and non-profits, large localemployers Develop and Implement a Land BankingSystem. One of the primary problems with generating new employment and economic activity in the area is that there is a limited supply of available land for new or redevelopment. This is problematic in part because it is impossible to attract or expand business if it is perceived that there is nowhere to go. By developing a system for monitoring vacant land (including foreclosed on properties or properties that have other development obstacles), the economic development corporation can turn these properties into revenue-generating opportunities for commercial and economic development
  • 21. while mitigating the negative externalities of underutilized property. Potential implementation partners include Los Angeles Department of City Planning, County of Los AngelesPlanning Commission Incentivize Participation of Currently non-Participating Parcels RECYCLING CENTER ON SITE (PHOTO CREDIT: STUDENT 68) Under the current Master Plan there are two parcels, a former manufacturing facility and a recycling center, that are not being utilized as part of the redevelopment. It would be worth investigating various methods for incentivizing their participation (through tax breaks, public-private development partnerships, for example); as they currently stand, both businesses are a threat to the overall aesthetic being sought by the developers. But both of these businesses, if upgraded FORMER MANUFACTURING FACILITY AND CURRENT WAREHOUSE ON SITE (PHOTO CREDIT: STUDENT 68) and expanded, have the potential to provide a valuable source of nearby employment and job training forresidents. Recycling Centers are useful businesses for employment because they are labor intensive, social useful endeavors that often serve to catalyze other economic opportunities (Blakely & Leigh 2010). The current warehouse/former manufacturing site, if utilized or acquired, could prove useful as a hands-on training facility for a number of emerging industries in Los Angeles, such as advanced manufacturing. Through a partnership with a school, for example, the provision of such a facility could be an asset that leads to the designation of the school as a specialized training center, while simultaneously providing a site for skills upgrading for older community members seeking workforce training.
  • 22. Potential implementation partners include: City of LosAngeles, two operating business owners of the parcels, Michaels Organization and BRIDGE Development partners, Jordan High School/LAUSD, Maxine Waters Employment PrepCenter Metrics and Evaluation Evaluation is an important part of any economic development strategy. Maintaining a consistent set of evaluative metrics and measures not only sheds light on whether or not program objectives are being met, but also facilitates consistent and cohesive measurement. There are basic measures that will help monitor progress, including unemployment, labor force participation, educational attainment, poverty status, household and per capita income. These measures can be taken periodically from census data, for example by using the American Community Survey, and inform the general socio-economic progress over time. There are also more creative metrics that can be used to measure whether or not the economic development objectives set forth in this document are being met. As a reminder, the objectives are:  Stimulate private investment while promoting community ownership.  Build institutional capacity for community-based economic change  Create revenue and employment generating opportunities on the Jordan Downs site In order to evaluate the progress toward these particular objectives, it will be important to measure private investment in number of dollars into the area annually, as well as a measurement of what percentage of that investment came from what kinds of investors (including individuals or businesses inside of Watts vs institutional investors, etc.). Generally, it will be important to evaluate how the retail/commercial portion of the development is faring by keeping detailed records about the number of newtenants, time it takes to attract new tenants and length of tenure. Sales tax can be used to better estimate the revenue generating capacity of establishments. To measure the progress it will also be critical to analyze information about new business creation in and around the site, and to keep profiles on who the new business owners are (i.e. previous existing enterprises that are relocating to the retail center, resident-owned enterprises, etc.). In order to establish to what extent these businesses are impacting employment, it will be necessary to keep detailed measurements of how many positions are created or maintained each year. In addition to measuring private investment and business creation, it will be important to periodically evaluate the success of the jobs training aspect of the Human Capital plan, which will help inform the efficacy of the training programs. Critical measures include the number of consultations given each year, the number of job placements made on a monthly basis, and to consistently monitor where the individuals are being placed so that employers who are taking on residents can be approached for improved information on neededskills. It will also be essential to measure how many new industry organizations, associations, and employers are brought into the jobs placement network each year.
  • 23. Measuring the institutional capacity for community-based change will require careful identification and monitoring inthe area of organizations that can help strengthen the economic fabric of the Jordan Downs redevelopment initiative. This includes maintaining catalogues of the various organizations that are involved and consistently evaluating whether or not their agreed upon contributions are being met, and identifying where there may be underutilized capacity in these organizations. As the project continues to develop, these measurements and evaluative metrics can facilitate year to year improvements in terms of investment, business creation, employment generation, and institutional change. As the institutional capacity grows and economic coordination improves, the change will be steadily reflected in more dollars invested into the area, the legitimization of exisiting businesses and the creation of new resident-owned enterprises, the upgrading of surrounding businesses into bigger employment generators, and the steady increase in revenue generated from the retail/commercial component of the development. Why These Recommendations? The recommendations and overall strategy set forth in this report are intended to complement and build upon the current framework for initiating economic change in the Jordan Downs redevelopment. Without utilizing many of the recommended economic development tools, there are opportunities that may never be realized, like the provisionof resident-owned enterprises to ensure community ownership in driving and sustaining economic regeneration in the area. The most important recommendation is the development of a community development corporation, and more generally that the area needs to improve institutional capacity for economic development. A core institution is critical to developing and maintaining the redevelopment’s economic vision, coordinating a large range of economic actors and participants, ensuring community-based ownership over economic redevelopment, and effectively monitoring how projects and activities are working together to produce enhanced economic opportunities and outcomes for Jordan Downs current and future residents. The subsequent recommendations are intended to be a set of strategies, tools and projects that can be placed under the purview of the community development corporation. Without these tools and strategies the development risks missing an opportunity to transition the current residents into employment and revenue generating ventures even before the upper income residents move into the completed market rate apartments. Moreover, the development risks perpetuating a culture of unemployment, low labor force participation, and financial dependency. Alternatively, such a new and high profile development risks displacement of current residents who cannot keep up with the pace of development in the area.
  • 24. Conclusion: Re:Working Jordan Downs Jordan Downs is a community with the potential to benefit enormously from this cataclysmic, mix-income redevelopment project. Promoting principles of livability, equity and sustainability, the Jordan Downs Master Plan re-envisions this traditional public housing community as a place of positive change and development. To ensure the long-term viability of this plan, it is critical that the economic development aspect of this plan isenhanced and thoroughly connected to the decisions made and opportunities available in other elements of the plan, notably transportation and land use. Los Angeles’ transit revolution will continue to increase connectivity to Watts from other areas of Los Angeles, providing valuable opportunities in employment. At the same time, unique land use in this area poises this development to be an example of successful live- work community that generates both revenue and employment. With a young population that is ripe for training and workforce preparation, Jordan Downs is also endowed with a unique human capital potential that must be cultivated and guided to avoid underutilization. Much of the economic opportunity that awaits Watts residents lie in these unique land use and transportation aspects of the Master Plan and unleashing the economic potential of Jordan Downs residents, which this report intentionally built off of. In order for the Jordan Downs redevelopment initiative to be successful it will be important to consider how the community’s economic and social resources can be mobilized to achieve community-based, enhanced outcomes and opportunities. To better facilitate cohesive development and to maximize the potential of the Jordan Downs future growth, a number of recommendation and strategies have been outlined in this report that promote community ownership, investment, and job and revenue generating activities under a framework of improved institutional capacity for economic change.
  • 25. Works Cited Social Explorer Tables: ACS 2008 to 2012 (5-Year Estimates) (SE), ACS 2008 -- 2012 (5-Year Estimates), Social Explorer; U.S. Census Bureau Schubert, M. F., & Thresher, A. (1996, April). Lessons from the Field: Three Case Studies of Mixed - Income Housing Development [Scholarly project]. In University of Chicago- Illinois. Retrieved from http://uic.edu/cuppa/gci/publications/workingpaperseries/pdfs/ Lessons%20from%20the%20Field.pdf Fraser, J. C., Chaskin, R. J., & Bazuin, J. T. (2013). Making Mixed- Income Neighborhoods Work for Low-Income Households. Cityscape: A Journal of Policy Development and Research, 15(2), 83-100. Retrieved from http://www.huduser.org/portal/periodicals/cityscpe/vol15num2 /ch6.pdf McCormick, Naomi, Mark Joseph, and Robert Chaskin.2012. “The New Stigma of Relocated Public Housing Residents: Challenges to Social Identity in Mixed- Income Developments,” City and Community 11 (3): 285–308 Joseph, Mark, Robert Chaskin, and Henry Webber. 2007. “The Theoretical Basis for Addressing Poverty Through Mixed-Income Development,” UrbanAffairs Review 42 (3): 369–409 Kleit, Rachel, and Lynne Manzo. 2006. “To Move or Not To Move: Relationships to Place and Relocation Choices in HOPE VI,” Housing Policy Debate 17 (2): 271–308. The Watts Community Studio (Publication). (2013, July/August). Retrieved http://wattscommunitystudio.files.wordpress.com/2014/01/wcs -final-report.pdf Blakely, E. J., & Leigh, N. G. (2010). Planning local economic development: Theory and practice. Thousand Oaks, Ca.:Sage. Conley, D. (1999). Getting into the Black: Race, Wealth, and Public Policy.Political Science Quarterly, 114(4), 595-612. doi: 10.2307/2657785 Venkatesh, S. A. (2000). American project: The rise and fall of a modern ghetto. Cambridge, MA: Harvard UniversityPress. Urban Land Institute: An Advisory Services Panel Report: Jordan Downs, Los Angeles (Rep.). (2009). Washington D.C.: Urban Land Institute. Primestor Retail Market Analysis: Jordan Downs (Rep.). (2011). Primestor.com. Multi-family Market Forecast 2013 Report (Publication). (2013). Los Angeles, CA: USC Lusk Center. WRT Solomon . (2010, December). Envision Watts: Envision Jordan Downs [Community-Based Master Plan for Jordan Downs].