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How to Manage Sports Injuries?How to Manage Sports Injuries?
Adriano VretarosAdriano Vretaros
Strength and Conditioning CoachStrength and Conditioning Coach
20182018
São Paulo – BRAZILSão Paulo – BRAZIL
avretaros@gmail.comavretaros@gmail.com
How to Manage Sports Injuries?How to Manage Sports Injuries?
What are Sports Injuries?What are Sports Injuries?
““ A ‘sports injury’ can be defined as an injuryA ‘sports injury’ can be defined as an injury
that occurs during sporting activi-ties orthat occurs during sporting activi-ties or
exercise.”exercise.”
(Rolf, 2007)(Rolf, 2007)
How to Manage Sports Injuries?How to Manage Sports Injuries?
Types of Sports Injuries - ITypes of Sports Injuries - I
- Contact and Non-Contact- Contact and Non-Contact
- Acute and Chronic- Acute and Chronic
- Intrinsic- Intrinsic
- Extrinsic- Extrinsic
- Fatigue, muscle- Fatigue, muscle
imbalances, etc.imbalances, etc.
- Equipment, playing field,- Equipment, playing field,
environment, etc.environment, etc.
Adapted from Marujo, 2014Adapted from Marujo, 2014
How to Manage Sports Injuries?How to Manage Sports Injuries?
Types of Sports Injuries - IITypes of Sports Injuries - II
IMPORTANT ASPECTS:IMPORTANT ASPECTS:
- Athlete Level- Athlete Level
- Type of Sport- Type of Sport
- Location- Location
- Biomechanical Mechanism- Biomechanical Mechanism
- Symptoms- Symptoms
- Clinical Tests and Exams- Clinical Tests and Exams
- Diagnosis- Diagnosis
- Relevant Research- Relevant Research
- Treatment- Treatment
- Evaluation of Treatment- Evaluation of Treatment
- Return to Training- Return to Training
- Return to Play- Return to Play
How to Manage Sports Injuries?How to Manage Sports Injuries?
Professionals Involved in ManagementProfessionals Involved in Management
Sports PhysicianSports Physician
- Assessment- Assessment
- Indication of- Indication of
TreatmentTreatment
SportsSports
PhysiotherapistPhysiotherapist
- Rehabilitation- Rehabilitation
Strength andStrength and
ConditioningConditioning
CoachCoach
- Specific Training- Specific Training
- Prevention of- Prevention of
InjuriesInjuries
- End Stage of- End Stage of
RehabilitationRehabilitation
- Return to Play- Return to Play
HealthHealth
ProfessionalsProfessionals
- Physiologist- Physiologist
- Masseur- Masseur
- Chiropractic- Chiropractic
- Podiatrist- Podiatrist
- Nutritionist- Nutritionist
- And Other- And Other
How to Manage Sports Injuries?How to Manage Sports Injuries?
The Scientific Staff WorkThe Scientific Staff Work
InterdisciplinaryInterdisciplinary
TeamTeam
MultidisciplinaryMultidisciplinary
TeamTeam
TransdisciplinaryTransdisciplinary
TeamTeam
How to Manage Sports Injuries?How to Manage Sports Injuries?
Injury Management PlatformsInjury Management Platforms
CORRECTIVECORRECTIVE
PlataformPlataform
PREVENTIVEPREVENTIVE
PlatformPlatform
PREDICTIVEPREDICTIVE
PlatformPlatform
How to Manage Sports Injuries?How to Manage Sports Injuries?
Corrective Platform - ICorrective Platform - I
**** CYCLE INJURY-CORRECTIONCYCLE INJURY-CORRECTION ****
How to Manage Sports Injuries?How to Manage Sports Injuries?
Corrective Platform - IICorrective Platform - II
1)1) URGENTURGENT
CORRECTIVECORRECTIVE
PLATFORM:PLATFORM:
2)2) PROGRAMMEDPROGRAMMED
CORRECTIVECORRECTIVE
PLATFORM:PLATFORM:
When the severity of theWhen the severity of the
injury involves the athleteinjury involves the athlete
IMMEDIATE clearance toIMMEDIATE clearance to
reach a DEFINITIVEreach a DEFINITIVE
SOLUTION.SOLUTION.
When the injury to theWhen the injury to the
athlete undergoesathlete undergoes
PERIODIC treatment and/orPERIODIC treatment and/or
a surgical intervention isa surgical intervention is
decided in the MEDIUM ordecided in the MEDIUM or
LONG TERM.LONG TERM.
How to Manage Sports Injuries?How to Manage Sports Injuries?
Preventive Platform - IPreventive Platform - I
SMARTSMART
TRAININGTRAINING
(Boyle, 2015)(Boyle, 2015)
SPORTSSPORTS
PERFORMANCEPERFORMANCE
PREVENTPREVENT
INJURIESINJURIES
How to Manage Sports Injuries?How to Manage Sports Injuries?
Preventive Platform - IIPreventive Platform - II
EVALUATION TOOLS for InjuryEVALUATION TOOLS for Injury
Prevention:Prevention:
- Functional Movement Screen- Functional Movement Screen
- Y-Balance Test- Y-Balance Test
- Star Excursion Balance Test- Star Excursion Balance Test
- Isokinetic Evaluation- Isokinetic Evaluation
- Global Postural Assessment- Global Postural Assessment
- Unilateral Vertical Jump Test- Unilateral Vertical Jump Test
- Unilateral Horizontal Jump Test- Unilateral Horizontal Jump Test
- And Other- And Other
How to Manage Sports Injuries?How to Manage Sports Injuries?
Preventive Platform - IIIPreventive Platform - III
Training LoadsTraining Loads
(internal and external)(internal and external)
(Adapted from Gabbett, 2016)(Adapted from Gabbett, 2016)
Dose-response of loadsDose-response of loads
Loading ThresholdsLoading Thresholds
Weekly loadWeekly load
increasesincreases
(up to 10%)(up to 10%)
Relationship BetweenRelationship Between
Acute-Chronic LoadAcute-Chronic Load
~ 0,6-1,3~ 0,6-1,3
High Risk Area would beHigh Risk Area would be
above or equal to 1.5above or equal to 1.5
How to Manage Sports Injuries?How to Manage Sports Injuries?
Preventive Platform - IVPreventive Platform - IV
Training LoadsTraining Loads
(internal and external)(internal and external)
(Adapted from Gabbett, 2016)(Adapted from Gabbett, 2016)
Train "strong"Train "strong"
inappropriatelyinappropriately
INJURIESINJURIES
Train "strong"Train "strong"
appropriateappropriate
EFFECTEFFECT
NATURALNATURAL
PROTECTIVEPROTECTIVE
How to Manage Sports Injuries?How to Manage Sports Injuries?
Preventive Platform - VPreventive Platform - V
ACTION PLANACTION PLAN
(Adapted from Parkkari, Kujala & Kannus, 2001)(Adapted from Parkkari, Kujala & Kannus, 2001)
VARIABLES:VARIABLES:
- Number- Number
- Incidence- Incidence
- Temporal Tendency- Temporal Tendency
- Consequences- Consequences
(deficiencies, disabilities and(deficiencies, disabilities and
costs)costs)
SET UP:SET UP:
a) Etiologya) Etiology
b) Risk factorsb) Risk factors
c) Injury Mechanismsc) Injury Mechanisms
Evaluate EFFECTIVENESS andEvaluate EFFECTIVENESS and
COST of Preventive ActionCOST of Preventive Action
PreventivePreventive
ProgramProgram
How to Manage Sports Injuries?How to Manage Sports Injuries?
Preventive Platform - VIPreventive Platform - VI
RECOVERY RESOURCES:RECOVERY RESOURCES:
(Bompa & Haff, 2012)(Bompa & Haff, 2012)
- Cryotherapy- Cryotherapy
- Compressive Clothing- Compressive Clothing
- Massage- Massage
- Hydrotherapy- Hydrotherapy
- Hydration- Hydration
- Nutrition- Nutrition
- Sleep- Sleep
- Etc- Etc
How to Manage Sports Injuries?How to Manage Sports Injuries?
Predictive Platform - IPredictive Platform - I
*** What is*** What is
PREDICTION? ***PREDICTION? ***
““ Affirm With CONVICTION WhatAffirm With CONVICTION What
May Happen in the FUTURE "May Happen in the FUTURE "
How to Manage Sports Injuries?How to Manage Sports Injuries?
Predictive Platform - IIPredictive Platform - II
EmpiricistsEmpiricists
RationalistsRationalists
How to Manage Sports Injuries?How to Manage Sports Injuries?
Predictive Platform - IIIPredictive Platform - III
EXPLICITEXPLICIT
KnowledgeKnowledge
TACITTACIT
KnowledgeKnowledge
- Perceptual Skills- Perceptual Skills
- Pattern Matching- Pattern Matching
- Workarounds- Workarounds
- Judging (?)- Judging (?)
- Mental Models- Mental Models
- Insights- Insights
- And (???)- And (???)
- Declarative Information- Declarative Information
- Routines- Routines
- Procedures- Procedures
- Protocols- Protocols
- Mathematical Expressions- Mathematical Expressions
-Others-Others
How to Manage Sports Injuries?How to Manage Sports Injuries?
Predictive Platform - IVPredictive Platform - IV
MANIPULATEMANIPULATE
GREATGREAT
UNCERTAINTYUNCERTAINTY
RANDOMNESSRANDOMNESS
How to Manage Sports Injuries?
Predictive Platform - V
UNFORGETTABLEUNFORGETTABLE
CONTINGENCIESCONTINGENCIES
THINKTHINK
DIFFERENTDIFFERENT
MENTALITY “OUTSIDE THEMENTALITY “OUTSIDE THE
CURVE”CURVE”
HOW TO ACT?HOW TO ACT?
How to Manage Sports Injuries?
Predictive Platform - IV
THREE THEORIES:THREE THEORIES:
How to Manage Sports Injuries?
Predictive Platform - VIPredictive Platform - VI
1) Heuristic1) Heuristic
MethodologyMethodology
2) Black Swan2) Black Swan
LogicLogic
3) Logarithmic3) Logarithmic
EngineeringEngineering
How to Manage Sports Injuries?
Predictive Platform - VIIPredictive Platform - VII
HEURISTIC METHODOLOGYHEURISTIC METHODOLOGY
(Gingerenzer & Gaissmaier, 2011)(Gingerenzer & Gaissmaier, 2011)
You IGNORE Some ofYou IGNORE Some of
the Informationthe Information
FASTERFASTER
Decision MakingDecision Making
"Serve to Discover""Serve to Discover"
Discoveries WITHOUTDiscoveries WITHOUT
Statistical Calculations ofStatistical Calculations of
a Higher Level ofa Higher Level of
ComplexityComplexity
There Are NO RIGIDThere Are NO RIGID
RULES of Direction toRULES of Direction to
Seek SolutionsSeek Solutions
INTUITIVE FILTERINTUITIVE FILTER
for Analysisfor Analysis ECOLOGICALECOLOGICAL
RATIONALITYRATIONALITY
How to Manage Sports Injuries?
Predictive Platform - VIIIPredictive Platform - VIII
HEURISTIC Focused on theHEURISTIC Focused on the
Sporting EnvironmentSporting Environment
(Adapted from Jovanovic, 2017)(Adapted from Jovanovic, 2017)
ASSURANCEASSURANCE
KnowledgeKnowledge
RISKRISK
PredictablePredictable
ResultsResults
UNCERTAINTYUNCERTAINTY
UnpredictableUnpredictable
ResultsResults
How to Manage Sports Injuries?
Predictive Platform - IXPredictive Platform - IX
BLACK SWAN LOGICBLACK SWAN LOGIC
(Adapted from Taleb, 2015)(Adapted from Taleb, 2015)
ANTI-ANTI-
KNOWLEDGEKNOWLEDGE
CAUSALCAUSAL
CHAINSCHAINS
ForecastForecast
ERRORS ofERRORS of
Magnitude OftenMagnitude Often
NOT SCALEDNOT SCALED
RANDOMRANDOM
EVENTSEVENTS
How to Manage Sports Injuries?
Predictive Platform - XPredictive Platform - X
BLACK SWAN LOGICBLACK SWAN LOGIC
(Adapted from Taleb, 2015)(Adapted from Taleb, 2015)
DECREASE theDECREASE the
Probability of Surprises:Probability of Surprises:
1) Illusion of the1) Illusion of the
UnderstandingUnderstanding
2) Retrospective2) Retrospective
DistortionDistortion
3) Overvaluation3) Overvaluation
of Factualof Factual
InformationInformation
How to Manage Sports Injuries?
Predictive Platform - XI
THOUGHT:THOUGHT:
(Taleb, 2015)(Taleb, 2015)
Non-linearNon-linear
SPECULATIONSSPECULATIONS
ILLOGICALILLOGICAL
Real-lifeReal-life
ProblemsProblems
How to Manage Sports Injuries?
Predictive Platform - XII
LOGARITHMIC ENGINEERING:LOGARITHMIC ENGINEERING:
ARTIFICIALARTIFICIAL
INTELLIGENCEINTELLIGENCE
(Cruz, 2010)(Cruz, 2010)
PREDICTIONPREDICTION
MODELMODEL
(Douetteau, 2017)(Douetteau, 2017)
Linear RegressionLinear Regression
Logistic RegressionLogistic Regression
Decision TreeDecision Tree
Random ForestRandom Forest
Gradient BoostingGradient Boosting
Neural NetworksNeural Networks
How to Manage Sports Injuries?
Predictive Platform - XIIIPredictive Platform - XIII
LOGARITHMIC ENGINEERING:LOGARITHMIC ENGINEERING:
(R² = 0.53)(R² = 0.53)
POLYNOMIAL CURVESPOLYNOMIAL CURVES
TABLETABLE
(Blanch & Gabbett, 2016)(Blanch & Gabbett, 2016)
Create a SPECIFIC logarithmicCreate a SPECIFIC logarithmic
BY SPORTBY SPORT
RECURRENCE of the same injuryRECURRENCE of the same injury
NEW INJURY UNKNOWN RISKNEW INJURY UNKNOWN RISK
How to Manage Sports Injuries?
Predictive Platform - XIVPredictive Platform - XIV
LogarithmicLogarithmic
EngineeringEngineering
Black SwanBlack Swan
LogicLogic
JUNCTION OF THREE THEORIESJUNCTION OF THREE THEORIES
ComplexityComplexity
MULTIFACTORIALMULTIFACTORIAL
HeuristicHeuristic
MethodologyMethodology ++ ++
How to Manage Sports Injuries?
Predictive Platform - XVPredictive Platform - XV
1) Heuristic1) Heuristic
MethodologyMethodology
2) Logarithmic2) Logarithmic
EngineeringEngineering
3) Black Swan3) Black Swan
LogicLogic
FORMULATEFORMULATE
HypothesesHypotheses
andand
ProbabilitiesProbabilities
PREDICT SportsPREDICT Sports
InjuriesInjuries
How to Manage Sports Injuries?
Sports Injury Management
CORRECTIVECORRECTIVE
PlatformPlatform
PREVENTIVEPREVENTIVE
PlataformPlataform
PREDITIVEPREDITIVE
PlatformPlatform
SecondarySecondary
and/or Tertiaryand/or Tertiary
ResourceResource
Only employed inOnly employed in
typical emergencytypical emergency
situations or specificsituations or specific
cases such ascases such as
congenital injuries,congenital injuries,
etc.etc.
PRIMARYPRIMARY
ResourceResource
Try to solve possibleTry to solve possible
variables in a wayvariables in a way
that prevents thethat prevents the
onset andonset and
recurrence of therecurrence of the
injury.injury.
Speculate throughSpeculate through
conventional andconventional and
unconventionalunconventional
information and toinformation and to
anticipate situationsanticipate situations
randomly.randomly.
Primary ResourcePrimary Resource
COMPLEMENTARYCOMPLEMENTARY
to the preventiveto the preventive
platformplatform

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Manage Sports Injuries

  • 1. How to Manage Sports Injuries?How to Manage Sports Injuries? Adriano VretarosAdriano Vretaros Strength and Conditioning CoachStrength and Conditioning Coach 20182018 São Paulo – BRAZILSão Paulo – BRAZIL avretaros@gmail.comavretaros@gmail.com
  • 2. How to Manage Sports Injuries?How to Manage Sports Injuries? What are Sports Injuries?What are Sports Injuries? ““ A ‘sports injury’ can be defined as an injuryA ‘sports injury’ can be defined as an injury that occurs during sporting activi-ties orthat occurs during sporting activi-ties or exercise.”exercise.” (Rolf, 2007)(Rolf, 2007)
  • 3. How to Manage Sports Injuries?How to Manage Sports Injuries? Types of Sports Injuries - ITypes of Sports Injuries - I - Contact and Non-Contact- Contact and Non-Contact - Acute and Chronic- Acute and Chronic - Intrinsic- Intrinsic - Extrinsic- Extrinsic - Fatigue, muscle- Fatigue, muscle imbalances, etc.imbalances, etc. - Equipment, playing field,- Equipment, playing field, environment, etc.environment, etc. Adapted from Marujo, 2014Adapted from Marujo, 2014
  • 4. How to Manage Sports Injuries?How to Manage Sports Injuries? Types of Sports Injuries - IITypes of Sports Injuries - II IMPORTANT ASPECTS:IMPORTANT ASPECTS: - Athlete Level- Athlete Level - Type of Sport- Type of Sport - Location- Location - Biomechanical Mechanism- Biomechanical Mechanism - Symptoms- Symptoms - Clinical Tests and Exams- Clinical Tests and Exams - Diagnosis- Diagnosis - Relevant Research- Relevant Research - Treatment- Treatment - Evaluation of Treatment- Evaluation of Treatment - Return to Training- Return to Training - Return to Play- Return to Play
  • 5. How to Manage Sports Injuries?How to Manage Sports Injuries? Professionals Involved in ManagementProfessionals Involved in Management Sports PhysicianSports Physician - Assessment- Assessment - Indication of- Indication of TreatmentTreatment SportsSports PhysiotherapistPhysiotherapist - Rehabilitation- Rehabilitation Strength andStrength and ConditioningConditioning CoachCoach - Specific Training- Specific Training - Prevention of- Prevention of InjuriesInjuries - End Stage of- End Stage of RehabilitationRehabilitation - Return to Play- Return to Play HealthHealth ProfessionalsProfessionals - Physiologist- Physiologist - Masseur- Masseur - Chiropractic- Chiropractic - Podiatrist- Podiatrist - Nutritionist- Nutritionist - And Other- And Other
  • 6. How to Manage Sports Injuries?How to Manage Sports Injuries? The Scientific Staff WorkThe Scientific Staff Work InterdisciplinaryInterdisciplinary TeamTeam MultidisciplinaryMultidisciplinary TeamTeam TransdisciplinaryTransdisciplinary TeamTeam
  • 7. How to Manage Sports Injuries?How to Manage Sports Injuries? Injury Management PlatformsInjury Management Platforms CORRECTIVECORRECTIVE PlataformPlataform PREVENTIVEPREVENTIVE PlatformPlatform PREDICTIVEPREDICTIVE PlatformPlatform
  • 8. How to Manage Sports Injuries?How to Manage Sports Injuries? Corrective Platform - ICorrective Platform - I **** CYCLE INJURY-CORRECTIONCYCLE INJURY-CORRECTION ****
  • 9. How to Manage Sports Injuries?How to Manage Sports Injuries? Corrective Platform - IICorrective Platform - II 1)1) URGENTURGENT CORRECTIVECORRECTIVE PLATFORM:PLATFORM: 2)2) PROGRAMMEDPROGRAMMED CORRECTIVECORRECTIVE PLATFORM:PLATFORM: When the severity of theWhen the severity of the injury involves the athleteinjury involves the athlete IMMEDIATE clearance toIMMEDIATE clearance to reach a DEFINITIVEreach a DEFINITIVE SOLUTION.SOLUTION. When the injury to theWhen the injury to the athlete undergoesathlete undergoes PERIODIC treatment and/orPERIODIC treatment and/or a surgical intervention isa surgical intervention is decided in the MEDIUM ordecided in the MEDIUM or LONG TERM.LONG TERM.
  • 10. How to Manage Sports Injuries?How to Manage Sports Injuries? Preventive Platform - IPreventive Platform - I SMARTSMART TRAININGTRAINING (Boyle, 2015)(Boyle, 2015) SPORTSSPORTS PERFORMANCEPERFORMANCE PREVENTPREVENT INJURIESINJURIES
  • 11. How to Manage Sports Injuries?How to Manage Sports Injuries? Preventive Platform - IIPreventive Platform - II EVALUATION TOOLS for InjuryEVALUATION TOOLS for Injury Prevention:Prevention: - Functional Movement Screen- Functional Movement Screen - Y-Balance Test- Y-Balance Test - Star Excursion Balance Test- Star Excursion Balance Test - Isokinetic Evaluation- Isokinetic Evaluation - Global Postural Assessment- Global Postural Assessment - Unilateral Vertical Jump Test- Unilateral Vertical Jump Test - Unilateral Horizontal Jump Test- Unilateral Horizontal Jump Test - And Other- And Other
  • 12. How to Manage Sports Injuries?How to Manage Sports Injuries? Preventive Platform - IIIPreventive Platform - III Training LoadsTraining Loads (internal and external)(internal and external) (Adapted from Gabbett, 2016)(Adapted from Gabbett, 2016) Dose-response of loadsDose-response of loads Loading ThresholdsLoading Thresholds Weekly loadWeekly load increasesincreases (up to 10%)(up to 10%) Relationship BetweenRelationship Between Acute-Chronic LoadAcute-Chronic Load ~ 0,6-1,3~ 0,6-1,3 High Risk Area would beHigh Risk Area would be above or equal to 1.5above or equal to 1.5
  • 13. How to Manage Sports Injuries?How to Manage Sports Injuries? Preventive Platform - IVPreventive Platform - IV Training LoadsTraining Loads (internal and external)(internal and external) (Adapted from Gabbett, 2016)(Adapted from Gabbett, 2016) Train "strong"Train "strong" inappropriatelyinappropriately INJURIESINJURIES Train "strong"Train "strong" appropriateappropriate EFFECTEFFECT NATURALNATURAL PROTECTIVEPROTECTIVE
  • 14. How to Manage Sports Injuries?How to Manage Sports Injuries? Preventive Platform - VPreventive Platform - V ACTION PLANACTION PLAN (Adapted from Parkkari, Kujala & Kannus, 2001)(Adapted from Parkkari, Kujala & Kannus, 2001) VARIABLES:VARIABLES: - Number- Number - Incidence- Incidence - Temporal Tendency- Temporal Tendency - Consequences- Consequences (deficiencies, disabilities and(deficiencies, disabilities and costs)costs) SET UP:SET UP: a) Etiologya) Etiology b) Risk factorsb) Risk factors c) Injury Mechanismsc) Injury Mechanisms Evaluate EFFECTIVENESS andEvaluate EFFECTIVENESS and COST of Preventive ActionCOST of Preventive Action PreventivePreventive ProgramProgram
  • 15. How to Manage Sports Injuries?How to Manage Sports Injuries? Preventive Platform - VIPreventive Platform - VI RECOVERY RESOURCES:RECOVERY RESOURCES: (Bompa & Haff, 2012)(Bompa & Haff, 2012) - Cryotherapy- Cryotherapy - Compressive Clothing- Compressive Clothing - Massage- Massage - Hydrotherapy- Hydrotherapy - Hydration- Hydration - Nutrition- Nutrition - Sleep- Sleep - Etc- Etc
  • 16. How to Manage Sports Injuries?How to Manage Sports Injuries? Predictive Platform - IPredictive Platform - I *** What is*** What is PREDICTION? ***PREDICTION? *** ““ Affirm With CONVICTION WhatAffirm With CONVICTION What May Happen in the FUTURE "May Happen in the FUTURE "
  • 17. How to Manage Sports Injuries?How to Manage Sports Injuries? Predictive Platform - IIPredictive Platform - II EmpiricistsEmpiricists RationalistsRationalists
  • 18. How to Manage Sports Injuries?How to Manage Sports Injuries? Predictive Platform - IIIPredictive Platform - III EXPLICITEXPLICIT KnowledgeKnowledge TACITTACIT KnowledgeKnowledge - Perceptual Skills- Perceptual Skills - Pattern Matching- Pattern Matching - Workarounds- Workarounds - Judging (?)- Judging (?) - Mental Models- Mental Models - Insights- Insights - And (???)- And (???) - Declarative Information- Declarative Information - Routines- Routines - Procedures- Procedures - Protocols- Protocols - Mathematical Expressions- Mathematical Expressions -Others-Others
  • 19. How to Manage Sports Injuries?How to Manage Sports Injuries? Predictive Platform - IVPredictive Platform - IV MANIPULATEMANIPULATE GREATGREAT UNCERTAINTYUNCERTAINTY RANDOMNESSRANDOMNESS
  • 20. How to Manage Sports Injuries? Predictive Platform - V UNFORGETTABLEUNFORGETTABLE CONTINGENCIESCONTINGENCIES THINKTHINK DIFFERENTDIFFERENT MENTALITY “OUTSIDE THEMENTALITY “OUTSIDE THE CURVE”CURVE” HOW TO ACT?HOW TO ACT?
  • 21. How to Manage Sports Injuries? Predictive Platform - IV THREE THEORIES:THREE THEORIES: How to Manage Sports Injuries? Predictive Platform - VIPredictive Platform - VI 1) Heuristic1) Heuristic MethodologyMethodology 2) Black Swan2) Black Swan LogicLogic 3) Logarithmic3) Logarithmic EngineeringEngineering
  • 22. How to Manage Sports Injuries? Predictive Platform - VIIPredictive Platform - VII HEURISTIC METHODOLOGYHEURISTIC METHODOLOGY (Gingerenzer & Gaissmaier, 2011)(Gingerenzer & Gaissmaier, 2011) You IGNORE Some ofYou IGNORE Some of the Informationthe Information FASTERFASTER Decision MakingDecision Making "Serve to Discover""Serve to Discover" Discoveries WITHOUTDiscoveries WITHOUT Statistical Calculations ofStatistical Calculations of a Higher Level ofa Higher Level of ComplexityComplexity There Are NO RIGIDThere Are NO RIGID RULES of Direction toRULES of Direction to Seek SolutionsSeek Solutions INTUITIVE FILTERINTUITIVE FILTER for Analysisfor Analysis ECOLOGICALECOLOGICAL RATIONALITYRATIONALITY
  • 23. How to Manage Sports Injuries? Predictive Platform - VIIIPredictive Platform - VIII HEURISTIC Focused on theHEURISTIC Focused on the Sporting EnvironmentSporting Environment (Adapted from Jovanovic, 2017)(Adapted from Jovanovic, 2017) ASSURANCEASSURANCE KnowledgeKnowledge RISKRISK PredictablePredictable ResultsResults UNCERTAINTYUNCERTAINTY UnpredictableUnpredictable ResultsResults
  • 24. How to Manage Sports Injuries? Predictive Platform - IXPredictive Platform - IX BLACK SWAN LOGICBLACK SWAN LOGIC (Adapted from Taleb, 2015)(Adapted from Taleb, 2015) ANTI-ANTI- KNOWLEDGEKNOWLEDGE CAUSALCAUSAL CHAINSCHAINS ForecastForecast ERRORS ofERRORS of Magnitude OftenMagnitude Often NOT SCALEDNOT SCALED RANDOMRANDOM EVENTSEVENTS
  • 25. How to Manage Sports Injuries? Predictive Platform - XPredictive Platform - X BLACK SWAN LOGICBLACK SWAN LOGIC (Adapted from Taleb, 2015)(Adapted from Taleb, 2015) DECREASE theDECREASE the Probability of Surprises:Probability of Surprises: 1) Illusion of the1) Illusion of the UnderstandingUnderstanding 2) Retrospective2) Retrospective DistortionDistortion 3) Overvaluation3) Overvaluation of Factualof Factual InformationInformation
  • 26. How to Manage Sports Injuries? Predictive Platform - XI THOUGHT:THOUGHT: (Taleb, 2015)(Taleb, 2015) Non-linearNon-linear SPECULATIONSSPECULATIONS ILLOGICALILLOGICAL Real-lifeReal-life ProblemsProblems
  • 27. How to Manage Sports Injuries? Predictive Platform - XII LOGARITHMIC ENGINEERING:LOGARITHMIC ENGINEERING: ARTIFICIALARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCEINTELLIGENCE (Cruz, 2010)(Cruz, 2010) PREDICTIONPREDICTION MODELMODEL (Douetteau, 2017)(Douetteau, 2017) Linear RegressionLinear Regression Logistic RegressionLogistic Regression Decision TreeDecision Tree Random ForestRandom Forest Gradient BoostingGradient Boosting Neural NetworksNeural Networks
  • 28. How to Manage Sports Injuries? Predictive Platform - XIIIPredictive Platform - XIII LOGARITHMIC ENGINEERING:LOGARITHMIC ENGINEERING: (R² = 0.53)(R² = 0.53) POLYNOMIAL CURVESPOLYNOMIAL CURVES TABLETABLE (Blanch & Gabbett, 2016)(Blanch & Gabbett, 2016) Create a SPECIFIC logarithmicCreate a SPECIFIC logarithmic BY SPORTBY SPORT RECURRENCE of the same injuryRECURRENCE of the same injury NEW INJURY UNKNOWN RISKNEW INJURY UNKNOWN RISK
  • 29. How to Manage Sports Injuries? Predictive Platform - XIVPredictive Platform - XIV LogarithmicLogarithmic EngineeringEngineering Black SwanBlack Swan LogicLogic JUNCTION OF THREE THEORIESJUNCTION OF THREE THEORIES ComplexityComplexity MULTIFACTORIALMULTIFACTORIAL HeuristicHeuristic MethodologyMethodology ++ ++
  • 30. How to Manage Sports Injuries? Predictive Platform - XVPredictive Platform - XV 1) Heuristic1) Heuristic MethodologyMethodology 2) Logarithmic2) Logarithmic EngineeringEngineering 3) Black Swan3) Black Swan LogicLogic FORMULATEFORMULATE HypothesesHypotheses andand ProbabilitiesProbabilities PREDICT SportsPREDICT Sports InjuriesInjuries
  • 31. How to Manage Sports Injuries? Sports Injury Management CORRECTIVECORRECTIVE PlatformPlatform PREVENTIVEPREVENTIVE PlataformPlataform PREDITIVEPREDITIVE PlatformPlatform SecondarySecondary and/or Tertiaryand/or Tertiary ResourceResource Only employed inOnly employed in typical emergencytypical emergency situations or specificsituations or specific cases such ascases such as congenital injuries,congenital injuries, etc.etc. PRIMARYPRIMARY ResourceResource Try to solve possibleTry to solve possible variables in a wayvariables in a way that prevents thethat prevents the onset andonset and recurrence of therecurrence of the injury.injury. Speculate throughSpeculate through conventional andconventional and unconventionalunconventional information and toinformation and to anticipate situationsanticipate situations randomly.randomly. Primary ResourcePrimary Resource COMPLEMENTARYCOMPLEMENTARY to the preventiveto the preventive platformplatform