Can ingestion of lead shot and poisons change population trends of the grey partridge, common buzzard, and red kite?
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Arcadis gave this presentation at SETAC (http://slc.setac.org/) in Salt Lake City on November 4, 2015. For more information on our environmental services, please visit http://bit.ly/1HhZWV5
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Can ingestion of lead shot and poisons change population trends of the grey partridge, common buzzard, and red kite?
- 1. CAN INGESTION OF LEAD SHOT AND POISONS CHANGE POPULATION TRENDS OF THE GREY PARTRIDGE, COMMON BUZZARD, AND RED KITE?
- 2. © Arcadis 2015 Lead shot ingestion by upland birds Little is known of its effects on • Population size • Population growth • Extinction rate Plus pesticides, bait poisons Effect of these multiple chemical stressors on populations is unknown Question: How might lead shot and poison ingestion change populations of susceptible species? Lead Shot & Poison in Small Game Hunting Areas
- 3. © Arcadis 2015 Study Objective Demonstrate how population models can be used to evaluate combined effect of lead shot and poison ingestion on susceptible upland bird populations in Europe using • pathology reports that diagnose cause of death • population models Susceptible species Granivores Scavengers
- 4. © Arcadis 2015 Study Areas and Species Data for Population Model Parameters: • Grey Partridge - Continental Europe (lead shot & poison present) • Common Buzzard - Germany (mostly poison present) • Red Kite - Wales (mostly poison present) Data for Lead Shot/Poison Effects (highest impacted areas): • Grey Partridge - England and France (both stressors present) • Common Buzzard - England (both stressors present) • Red Kite - England (both stressors present) Must add or subtract lead shot/poison mortality using joint probability equations to model effects
- 5. Methods
- 6. © Arcadis 2015 Causes of Death for Grey Partridge 40% 11% 5% 24% 9% 7% 11% Ultimate Causes Predation Starvation/Disease Accident/Mowing Hunting Pesticide Poison Lead Shot Ingestion Unknown Direct Reported: From pathologist Ultimate Cause: Based on percentage with elevated subclinical lead or poison even if reported as died of another cause Direct = Lower Bound, Ultimate = Upper Bound, Midpoint = best estimate 41% 5% 7% 25% 6% 4% 12% Direct Reported Causes UK, France: n=775 Predation Starvation/Disease Accident/Mowing Hunting Pesticide Poison Lead Shot Ingestion Unknown
- 7. © Arcadis 2015 Causes of Death for the Raptors 29% 46% 9% 4% 0 13% Direct Reported Causes UK: n=56 Starvation/Disease Accident/Trauma Shot by Gun Bait Poison Lead Shot Ingestion Unknown 15% 26% 4% 46% 9% Direct Reported Causes UK: n=44 Starvation/Disease Accident/Trauma Shot by Gun Bait Poison Lead Shot Ingestion 11% 23% 4% 46% 16% 0 Ultimate Causes Starvation/Disease Accident/Trauma Shot by Gun Bait Poison Lead Shot Ingestion 27% 45% 9% 4% 5% 11% Ultimate Causes Starvation/Disease Accident/Trauma Shot by Gun Bait Poison Lead Shot Ingestion Unknown Common Buzzard Common Buzzard Red KiteRed Kite (a) (b)
- 8. © Arcadis 2015 Grey Partridge Population Model Used Published Model: DeLeo et al. 2004 Population Viability Analysis Model • Developed for European continent from 1965 to 1993 • Seasonal model (spring, summer, autumn/winter) • Spring population growth rate and survival are density dependent • Environmental stochasticity • Mortality from lead shot and poison ingestion subtracted from baseline ln(spring growth rate) Autumn/winter mortality Annual population growth rate, r
- 9. © Arcadis 2015 Common Buzzard Population Model : )( )( )( )( 000 000 000 )1( )1( )1( )1( 3 2 1 0 2 1 0 3210 3 2 1 0 tN tN tN tN S S S FFFF tN tN tN tN Matrix Population Viability Analysis Model in PopTools • Age-structured, pre-breeding matrix • Annual time step • Density dependence of survival, fertility • Environmental stochasticity • Added lead shot and subtracted poison mortality from baseline Theta-logistic equation used to model density dependence
- 10. © Arcadis 2015 Red Kite Population Model : Matrix Population Viability Analysis Model in PopTools • Age structured, pre-breeding matrix • Annual time step • Density dependence of survival and fertility • Environmental stochasticity • Added lead shot and subtracted poison mortality from baseline
- 11. © Arcadis 2015 Common Buzzard Baseline Model Output Similar to Observed Data
- 12. © Arcadis 2015 Red Kite Baseline Model Output Similar to Observed Data
- 13. © Arcadis 2015 • Observed Partridge • Modeled Partridge Steady state equilibrium population size (horizontal line) is mean of 10,000 model runs Baseline Model Output Similar to Observed Data
- 14. Results
- 15. © Arcadis 2015 Grey Partridge • 4 Scenarios Modeled Combined reduction in steady-state population size from the 2 stressors is 18%
- 16. © Arcadis 2015 Common Buzzard Steady-state equilibrium population size (horizontal line) is mean of 10,000 model runs Combined reduction in steady-state population size from the 2 stressors is <1%
- 17. © Arcadis 2015 Red Kite Adding lead shot ingestion reduces annual growth rate from 6.5 to 4% Removing bait poison increases annual growth from 6.5 to 12% Population is growing in all scenarios
- 18. © Arcadis 2015 Conclusions Lead shot and poison ingestion did not change direction of trends but • Lead shot reduced declining partridge population by additional 10% and with addition of poisons by 18% • With both stressors, probability of quasi- extinction (to < 5 birds/km2) increased for partridge from 4.5% to 16% • Lead shot and poison reduced large, stable buzzard population size by less than 1% • Lead shot reduced annual growth rate of the red kite from 6.5% to 4%; this rate would have been 12% with bait poisons removed • Declining or recovering populations are most sensitive to these chemical stressors These reasonable worst-case models have much uncertainty but demonstrate an approach to quantify impacts
- 19. Acknowledgments Funding: AEFMS, ARCADIS, ERM, ARCHE People: Margaret Bartee Michele Buonanduci
- 21. © Arcadis 2015 Thank you! o +1 303 231 9115 c +1 303 524 2747 e carolyn.meyer@arcadis.com CAROLYN MEYER Technical Expert/Ecologist o +1 303 231 9115 c +1 303 524 437 e joseph.meyer@arcadis.com JOSEPH MEYER Technical Expert o +1 925 296 7824 c +1 925 330 9119 e alex.francisco@arcadis.com ALEX FRANCISCO Principal Ecologist o 805 684 2801 c 805 680 8484 e jennifer.holder@arcadis.com JENNIFER HOLDER Partner/Principal Scientist o +32 9 265 87 60 e frederik.verdonck@arcadis.com FREDERIK VERDONCK Science Project Manager