We are pleased to release the July 2017 Africa Market Update with pre-election coverage for three countries - Angola, Kenya and Rwanda. In these three countries, we take a look at key factors likely to shape the forthcoming elections with particular interest in Angola (with an anticipated change of guard for the first time since 1979) and Kenya (where we expect a hotly contested race between the two dominant factions).
The issue concludes with our thoughts on the disconcerting disparity between high economic growth and low growth in wages in select economies in Sub-Saharan with a focus on Kenya, Botswana and Uganda.
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Capital Invested by Country (USD)
AFRICA DEALS LANDSCAPE
JANUARY - JUNE 2017
Source: PitchBook, StratLink Africa
Deal Activity by Industry (Proportions)
Deal Activity by Types (Proportions)
Major Deals – June 2017
• OMG Digital (Ghana) raised USD 1.1 Million of seed funding from Kima Ventures, Soma Capital and Comcast Ventures on June 26th, 2017
• Sanlam (Kenya) sold a 40.0% stake in Enterprise Group (Ghana) to Leapfrog Investments and Prudential Insurance for USD 180.0 Million on June
23rd, 2017
• Uis Tin (Namibia) was acquired by Bushveld Minerals for USD 843,539.0 on June 15th, 2017
79.7% 7.2% 6.0%
2.2% 1.7% 1.2%
1.2%
1.2%
0.8% 0.8%
14.2%
13.0%
10.7%
10.1%
7.7%
6.5%
4.7%
3.6%
3.6%
3.0%
2.4%
13.6%
2.4%
2.4%
2.4%
2.6 Billion
2.8 Billion
2 Billion
978 Million
919 Million
300 Million
299 Million
181 Million
170 Million
129 Million
56 Million
43 Million
41.6 Million
9 Million
9 Million
7.9 Million
7.4 Million
2 Million
110,000
South Africa
Kenya
Egypt
Congo
Uganda
Morocco
Nigeria
Ghana
Benin
Mauritius
Ivory Coast
Namibia
Tunisia
Lesotho
Tanzania
Swaziland
Ethiopia
Guinea
Madagascar
Software ...............................................
Other Business Products & Services ....
Metals, Minerals & Mining ..................
Commercial Services ............................
Consumer Non-Durables ........................
Other Financial Services .........................
Communications & Networking .............
Commercial Products .............................
Commercial Banks ..................................
Exploration, Production & Refining ........
Insurance ................................................
Media ......................................................
Services ...................................................
Healthcare Devices & Supplies ...............
Others ...................................................
23.9%
10.2%
10.2%
7.5%
7.1%
6.6%
6.2%
5.8%
5.3%
17.30%
Merger/Acquisition Secondary Transaction - Private Seed
Corporate Divestiture Pre/Accelerator/Incubator Asset acquisition
Buyout/LBO Growth/Expansion Early stage VC
Others
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MPLA Set to Retain Power
In January 2017, our prognosis was hinged on
two arguments – one, uncertainty as to whether
Jose Eduardo dos Santos would make good his
pledge and step down ahead of the August 23rd,
2017 legislative election. This was based on the
precedent set in 2001 in which he made a similar
pledge ahead of the 2003 poll. We, however, gave a
caveatthattheadversemacroeconomicconditions
and repudiation of the establishment, as had been
witnessed in Nigeria, Ghana and Gambia, could
compel the incumbent to step down. Two, we
argued that whereas Jose Eduardo dos Santos’
stepping down is likely to be greeted by high
optimism, the more consequential outcome for
Angola would be for the ruling party, MPLA, to lose
the election. Two months to the election, MPLA is
under the stewardship of Defense Minister, Joao
Manuel Lourenco, who is highly likely to be the
next President given the dominance of the party
and the fragmented nature of the opposition.
POLITICAL OUTLOOK
GDP: USD 102.6 Bln | Population: 25.8 Mln
ANGOLA
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Investors’ Headache: Deterioration in Ease of
Doing Business
Therehavebeenanumberofprogressivemeasures
adopted since the last election including:
• The August 2015 Private Investment Law which
prioritizes investment in the hospitality and
construction sectors, amongst others. This
law has been significant in accelerating the
economic diversification effort
• Implementation of the Electricity Sector
Transformation Program in Q4 2014 which, on
the whole, seeks to catalyze private investment
in the electricity sector
Be that as it may, investors watching the
forthcoming election will be keen to observe policy
proposals that promise to remedy deterioration
of the business environment. Between 2010 and
2017, Angola’s ranking in the World Bank’s Ease of
Doing Business has deteriorated from 164 (out of
183 countries) to 182 (out of 190 countries).
BUSINESS NEWS ENVIRONMENT
Woes Prevail amidst Weak Recovery in Oil Prices
Whilst holding cautious optimism over the Political
and Business Environments, StratLink maintains
a dim view of the macroeconomic environment.
Weak recovery of oil prices is our major concern
over the economy’s near to medium-term outlook
given its reliance on oil for both export revenue
and government expenditure.
Note: In May 2017, OPEC members, and non-
members such as Russia, agreed to extend
production cuts by nine months to March 2018 in
a bid to prop subdued prices.
ECONOMIC OUTLOOK
Risks to Outlook
The following stand out as risks to StratLink’s
assessment of Angola’s outlook:
• Shelved bailout talks with the IMF
In June 2016, the government shelved talks with
IMF for a bailout package to help the economy
cushion effects of the plunge in oil prices. Reasons
for suspension of the talks remain unclear to us
and we believe the near future could witness
resumption of talks especially if recovery of
oil prices remains weak through Q4 2017 and
Angola’s main trading partner, China, continues to
experience relatively adverse economic conditions
that could render it less generous with foreign
funding. Between 2000 and 2014, Angola received
USD 21.2 Billion in loans from China, accounting
for about 25 per cent of all loans from China to
Africa
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Key Issues in the 2017 General Election
The country is set for the general election on
August 8th, 2017 with the following standing out
as key factors likely to shape the poll:
• Significant Youth Constituency
Persons aged between 18 and 35 years, are poised
to play a pivotal role in the forthcoming election.
Of the 19,611,423 registered voters, 9,930,315
are in the said age bracket accounting for 50.6%.
As such, we expect Kenya’s relatively high, by East
African standards, youth unemployment rate
to be a key factor shaping debate in the period
remaining. It also explains why employment
creation has been a key feature in manifestos for
the leading factions.
POLITICAL OUTLOOK
GDP: USD 63.4 Bln | Population: 47.3 Mln
KENYA
Private Sector Credit Drought
The disbursement of credit to the private sector
is an integral and necessary aspect of any growing
economy. Elections can create the kind uncertainty
that leads to stalled investment decisions hence
reducing appetite for credit as well as limiting the
supply of the same as banks keep a risk averse
stance. In the year leading up to the previous
elections the rate of credit growth to the private
sector (year-on-year) dropped from 26.2% (March
2012) to 11.6% (March 2013). It is likely that the
memories of the unsavory outcome of the 2007
election contributed to the cautionary outlook
and credit rationing seen in the approach to March
2013.
Banks Feel the Squeeze
President Uhuru Kenyatta introduced a cap on
interest rates charged by banks in September
2016 to fulfill a campaign promise to make credit
more affordable. As a result banks have had to
curb loans disbursed to riskier clientele due to
their inability to price in higher chances of default.
BUSINESS NEWS ENVIRONMENT
Taking Stock of the Last Four Years
The last four years have presented a mixed bag
on the economic front with notable scores for the
incumbent government being:
• The rebound in Tourism and Hospitality sector
which had been undermined by a series of terror
attacks between 2013 and 2014. A key factor
that has also propped up this sector has been
Kenya’s improved profile on the international
front
• Issuance of the country’s debut sovereign
bond in the international markets in June 2014.
Issuance of a sovereign bond had been an
ongoing conversation from as early as 2010 (at
which time the government sought to issue a
USD 500.0 Mln bond).
ECONOMIC OUTLOOK
Banks Increase Holdings of Government Debt
In the year to 27 June, 2017 yields across all
maturities fell and the same holds true for the
month leading to the aforementioned date. This
goes to show the consistency with which the
Central Bank has minimized its borrowing costs
as well as investors seeking refuge behind low
risk government securities ahead of elections. A
fifteen year treasury bond (FXD 2/2007/15) was
reopened on 26 June 2017 looking to raise USD
289.2 million. The issue was oversubscribed but
fell short of the collection target with 67.6% of
bids being accepted.
DEBT MARKET UPDATE
Voting Outcome has Potential to Reverse Recent
Gains
The first few weeks of the year saw the NSE All-
Share index classified as the worst performing
index globally with speculation that its bad
performance was driven by election fears affecting
foreign investors in particular. Since then however
the markets have become bullish.
EQUITY MARKET UPDATE
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President Kagame Poised for a Third Term
We reiterate our stand in the January Review
Report that President Kagame, who is seeking a
third term after constitutional amendment that
allows him to potentially remain in power till 2034,
will emerge victorious in the August 4th election,
defusing the political risk climate with investor
assurance of policy continuity. Our analysis is
principally premised on two factors:
• The 2015 constitutional referendum as well as
the 2003 and 2010 elections which registered
overwhelming support for the ruling RPF in
which Kagame won with more than 90.0% of the
vote, amid a dearth of opposition candidates
given that most opposition parties, save for the
Democratic Green Party, chose to throw their
weight behind the ruling party
• Minimal change in opposition parties’ structure
in the past seven years to present any formidable
challenge to President Kagame
Entry of independent candidates has not
invigorated an otherwise determined poll, as
expected.
POLITICAL OUTLOOK
GDP: USD 8.1 Bln | Population: 11.9 Mln
RWANDA
Upturn in the Banking Sector
Business diversification has seen Rwanda’s
commercial banks post impressive performance
in Q1 2017, the tough operating environment
notwithstanding. The four major banks; Bank of
Kigali, I&M, Kenya Commercial Bank and Equity
bank registered profitability in the period under
review. Bank of Kigali posted a profit of USD 6.8
Million, I&M bank USD 1.5 Million while Equity
and Kenya Commercial banks recorded a profit of
USD 809,127.0 and USD 539,382.0, respectively,
in the period under review. The banking sector
has struggled under tight liquidity conditions
which has seen a rise in non-performing loans
as borrowers struggled to repay costly loans−the
average commercial bank lending rate stood at
17.2% as at May 2017.
BUSINESS NEWS ENVIRONMENT
Economy Bets on Made in Rwanda Strategy
Rwanda’s USD 2.6 Billion 2017/18 budget, a 7.3%
increase from the current financial year to budget
for the forthcoming August 2017 election, lays
emphasis on scaling up of local industries through
the ‘Made in Rwanda’ strategy to support the local
Manufacturingsectorwhichhasstruggledtobloom
due to stiff competition from imports. Rwanda,
like her peers in the East Africa Community (EAC)
has been keen to support local manufacturing
sector and has in turn taken drastic measures like
imposing punitive tariffs on importation of second
hand clothes and shoes.
ECONOMIC OUTLOOK
Yields Decline as Liquidity Tightens
Yields continued trending south between May
and June, 2017 even as liquidity tightened. The
interbank rate rose slightly by 11.0 bps to 6.3%
in May 2017 in a bid to stem further depreciation
of the Franc which has remained fragile against
the greenback, shedding off 2.2%, month-on-
month and 8.0%, year-on-year. Likewise, inflation
declined in the period under review, from 7.3%
recorded in April 2017 down to 6.4% in May 2017.
DEBT MARKET UPDATE
RSE Remains in the Red despite Impressive
Performance by the Banking Stocks
The impressive performance by the banking sector
(Please see Business Outlook) was not enough to
stimulate similar performance by the All Share
Index which remained in the red in June 2017.
The All Share Index declined by 2.5%, month-on-
month and 0.6%, year-on-year to 126.8 units. We
do not foresee much market uncertainty in light
of the August election given the high possibility of
the incumbent President Kagame retaining power.
EQUITY MARKET UPDATE
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Acting President Signs 2017 Budget
Acting President, Yemi Osinbajo, signed the 2017
Budget in June, paving the way for the federal
government to deploy fiscal levers in arresting the
economic downturn. Ascent of the 2017 budget
has been significant for two key reasons:
• It has encountered less hurdles than the 2016
budget which was delayed by divergent views
between the legislature and the executive. This
is a welcome signal at a time when the country
needs a common front within the arms of the
government in mitigating the effects of an
adverse macroeconomic environment.
• Increase in planned expenditure, 19.7%
between 2016 and 2017, indicates that
government expenditure is poised to remain
the main tool used in cushioning the economic
slump (this is due to the constrained room for
monetary adjustment in the economy).
POLITICAL OUTLOOK
GDP: USD 481.1 Bln | Population: 187.0 Mln
NIGERIA
State Reduces Import and Export Documentation
Requirements
The Federal government has reduced
documentation requirements for import and
export. The number of documents required for
export have been reduced from ten to seven
whilst that required for import from fourteen to
eight. This comes against the backdrop of efforts
by Nigeria to address subdued export earnings as
a result of the plunge in oil prices. This is a pointer
that the government is likely to be shifting its
focus to boosting trade flows at a time when intra-
regional trade is widely perceived as a vital prop
for African economies.
BUSINESS NEWS ENVIRONMENT
Manufacturing Sector Rebound
With 87.9% of the sector being formalized,
manufacturing is one of the country’s most
formalized sectors, behind mining at 99.0% and
construction at 88.4%, and rebound to growth
augurs well for revenue mobilization prospects
especially at a time when proceeds from the
mining sector are subdued. One of Nigeria’s key
challenges is that a significant proportion of the
economy remains informal and therefore presents
impediments in vital areas such as mobilization of
taxes.
ECONOMIC OUTLOOK
Central Bank Moves to Liberalize Interbank
Market Further
There was little change in the fixed income
market between May 2017 and June 2017 except
for developments around the foreign exchange
market. The Central Bank continues to undertake
efforts aimed at addressing challenges in the
foreign exchange market with the latest being
the June 5th, 2017 move which seeks to further
liberalize the interbank market.
DEBT MARKET UPDATE
EQUITY MARKET UPDATE
Outlook on Q3 2017
We expect to witness gradual moderation of the
rally extended through Q2 2017 in the next quarter
(Q3 2017). One of the main factors bound to
underlie this anticipated trend is the likely waning
effect of the Central Bank’s provision for Investors’
andExporters’ForeignExchangeWindow,effective
April 2017, which has provided a catalytic effect by
enhancing ease of currency conversion which was
experiencing significant hurdles.
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GDP: USD 45.6 Bln | Population: 55.2 Mln
Opposition Wary of President’s Infiltration
President Magufuli seems keen to tame the
opposition by appointing key opposition members
to government positions. The recent appointment
of the ACT Wazalendo chairperson, who contested
for the Presidency in the October 2015 election,
to the powerful post of Regional Commissioner
caught the opposition flat-footed and jittery about
the President’s real intentions with speculation
that he is out to weaken the opposition. The
promotion comes just two months after another
appointment of a key member of the ACT
Wazalendo party to the position of Permanent
Secretary in the Ministry of Water and Irrigation.
POLITICAL OUTLOOK
TANZANIA
Boost to Agriculture as TADB gets Funding
Even as Tanzania’s economy grapples with
mining sector woes, the country’s second largest
revenue earner after tourism and the largest
export commodity, the agriculture sector received
a boost in the form of a USD 93.6 Million soft
loan from government to Tanzania Agricultural
Development Bank (TADB) to support the bank’s
lending activities to farmers and consequently,
improve the sector. TADB is a state-owned
development finance institution established as
an apex national-level bank with the key role of
being a catalyst for delivery of credit facilities for
development of agriculture in Tanzania. Hence,
the funding is in line with government’s agenda
to increase agriculture value addition in a bid to
transform the sector from traditional subsistence
farming to commercial farming and drive
industrialization. The agriculture sector continues
to punch below its weight as it struggles under the
effects of climate change which has led to reduced
production and declining yields: Agriculture
sector underperformed decelerating to 0.3% in
Q3 2016 compared to a growth of 5.1% observed
in the corresponding quarter of 2015. Therefore,
the move should increase medium to long-term
lending to farmers to help them improve their
farming practices to boost the sector.
BUSINESS NEWS ENVIRONMENT
Budget Looks to Drive Industrialization Agenda
The 2017/18 budget, which rose by 7.3% to USD
14.2 Billion relative to the previous fiscal year,
reiterates the government’s key agenda of fiscal
consolidation and promoting agriculture value-
addition to drive its industrialization agenda. In
this regard, several tax measures were put forward
in the budget proposals aimed at supporting
industrial production. For instance, Value Added
Tax (VAT) on animal feeds has been scrapped off
to increase competitiveness in the sector; VAT on
auxiliary as well as capital goods for edible oils,
textiles,leatherandpharmaceuticalbusinesseshas
also been scraped off, a move that should increase
production in the respective industries through
reduction of procurement and importation costs
on machines and plants used in production.
ECONOMIC OUTLOOK
Yields Maintain a Downtrend
The decline in short-term yields endured in June
2017 liquidity easing effects continue gaining
traction as exhibited by the declining interbank
rate which fell by 110.0 bps to 4.6%, in the period
under review. Inflation similarly declined by 30.0
bps to 6.1% in May 2017.
DEBT MARKET UPDATE
EQUITY MARKET UPDATE
Bourse Remains Bearish
The bourse remained bearish in June 2017 under
the effects of Acacia mining security whose
shares remain fragile following an unfavorable
report by Mining Sands. The shares plunged by
8.0% following submission of a second report
which further accused the firm of operating
in the country illegally without a certificate
of compliance. However, the performance of
the bourse improved compared to last month,
despite staying in the red; the Index shed off 9.7%
percentage points, month-on-month, and 15.2%,
year-on-year, in the period under review.
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Court Reinstates NRM Candidate after
Nullification of Results
In a unanimous ruling by a three judge bench,
the court upheld the original election results
in favor of the NRM candidate for Tororo North
sighting no justifiable reason for the nullification
previously granted on grounds of non-compliance
with Ugandan electoral laws. The nullification case
originally filed by the FDC candidate had accused
the Electoral Commission of canceling results
from two polling stations. Though this dimmed
the image of the Electoral Commission (EC), the
court has however granted a reprieve to the EC
by asserting that the two polling stations neither
had declaration forms nor were the ballot boxes
sealed. The ruling comes on the backdrop of
alleged accusations of police interference and a
lack of impartiality by the EC in conducting the just
concluded by election in Kamuli Constituency.
POLITICAL OUTLOOK
GDP: USD 27.5 Bln | Population: 40.3 Mln
UGANDA
NSSF Rolls Out New Plan Targeting Work Force
The National Social Security Fund has launched
a new project aimed at allowing employers and
employees to contribute savings towards the
fund voluntarily. The NSSF Act requires employers
with more than five employees to make monthly
contributions to the fund so this new initiative
allows firms with fewer workers to save with the
fund as well as those in informal employment.
Within the formal employment sector the NSSF
estimates that out of the 4.0 million people
employed, around half of them have no social
security hence the need for a new method to reach
those left vulnerable. In order to maximize ease
and encourage contributions users can now remit
via mobile money allowing for widespread access
to the service. The pilot project proved successful
recruiting 3,017.0 new voluntary subscribers and
collected over USD 724,646.0 as of the end of May
2017.
BUSINESS NEWS ENVIRONMENT
Budget Up with Key Priority in Infrastructure
The government of Uganda has raised its budget
to USD 8.1 billion prioritizing infrastructure,
energy and mineral development and education.
Works and transport sector got the biggest share
accounting 16.9% of the total budget while energy
and mineral and education sectors each got 10.3%
and 9.3% respectively. Other winners include
security, health, and public management and
accountability sectors, on the other hand tourism,
social development and ICT were the biggest losers
getting lesser portions of the national budget. The
FY 2017/2018 budget has seen 11.0% growth from
USD 7.3 billion in 2016/2017 to USD 8.1 billion in
the current financial year.
ECONOMIC OUTLOOK
Yields Fall in Line with Loosened Monetary Policy
Yields have fallen significantly in the six months
to June 2017 majorly due to the Bank of Uganda’s
loosening of their monetary stance over the same
period. Inflation moved upwards 40.0 bps to reach
7.2% in the month of May driven by an increase
in annual food crop and energy prices. Food price
growth rose from 21.6% in April 2017 to 23.6%
in May 2017 while energy and fuels increased to
7.0% in May compared to 5.3% in the previous
month. The interbank rate moved 28 bps falling
from 10.1% in April to 9.9% in May.
DEBT MARKET UPDATE
EQUITY MARKET UPDATE
Equities to Surpass Last Year’s Levels
The All Share index did not move much in the
month to 30 June 2017, appreciating by 1.5%
to close at 1,677.9 at which point, however, the
index was trading above the average level for 2016
(1670.3).
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StratLink in the News: A look into the economic growth & wage growth
disparity in select Sub-Saharan Africa countries
In our latest commentary, StratLink provided analysis of the disparity between high economic growth and subdued
growth in wages in select Sub-Saharan Africa economies. This was backed by a comparative analysis of the trend in peer
economies including Bangladesh, Indonesia, Turkey, Pakistan and Brazil which reveals grave disparity between economic
growth and growth in wages in economies such as Kenya, Botswana and Uganda.
Please click the button to view the full article:
Why the pressure for higher minimum wages is gaining traction in Africa
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STRATLINK - AFRICA TEAM
Konstantin Makarov – Managing Partner
konstantin.makarov@StratLinkglobal.com
Dina Farfel – Partner
dfarfel@StratLinkglobal.com
Kyle Drexler – Associate
kyle.drexler@StratLinkglobal.com
Benson Njeri – Analyst
benson.njeri@StratLinkglobal.com
Julians Amboko – Senior Research Analyst
julians.amboko@StratLinkglobal.com
Gianluca Storchi – Senior Research Analyst
gianluca.storchi@StratLinkglobal.com
Sophia Sifuma – Research Analyst
sophia.sifuma@StratLinkglobal.com
Easton Ochieng’ – Intern Research Analyst
easton.ochieng@StratLinkglobal.com
Peter Mutisya – Director Graphic Design
peter.mutisya@StratLinkglobal.com
STRATLINK AFRICA LTD - WHO WE ARE
StratLink is an Africa focused financial advisory company
with Capital Raising Advisory, Corporate Advisory and
Market Research as our core business lines. We believe in
the growth potential of sub-Saharan African economies and
partner with our clients to execute their vision by providing
quality services and access to capital. We recognize
opportunities in the region and connect the fastest growing
middle market companies with leading global investment
banks, private equity firms and family offices. We value the
importance of making informed decisions and leverage our
regional knowledge to the advantage of our clients.
Sub-Saharan Africa: In-depth macro and microeconomic
research
Within our purview of coverage are nine economies –
Kenya, Tanzania, Uganda, Rwanda, Ethiopia, Nigeria, Ghana,
Angola and Gabon. We undertake incisive research and
analysis of each of the countries’ macro and microeconomic
environment, debt and equity markets. We also conduct
sector specific research and analysis shedding insight on
market landscape, existing gaps and opportunities as well
as potential challenges.
Our guarantee: Competent team, reliable data
Our research is anchored in a competent and versatile
team traversing the fields of economics and finance with
qualifications from globally recognized institutions. The
team is backed by subscription to reliable databases such
as Business Monitor International, Bloomberg, Thomson
One Research, World Economics and The World Today.
As such, our guarantee is reliable and up to date data in
an increasingly dynamic region. Further, we reach out to
relevant bodies in concerned markets including Central
Banks, ministries and state departments.
Authoritative voice on regional economics
StratLink has become an authoritative voice for commentary
and opinion on issues pertaining to Sub-Saharan African
economies and investment. Reputable media including
CNBC Africa, Nation Media Group, CCTV and Bloomberg
have reached out to the company for opinion and analysis.
Where we are based
Our head office is in Nairobi, Kenya with satellite offices in
New York, Kampala and Kuala Lumpur.