August 2017 Africa Market Update (Abridged)

2SEPTEMBER 2015 | MARKET UPDATE – AFRICA www.stratlinkglobal.com
Company
AUGUST 2017 | MARKET UPDATE – AFRICA www.stratlinkglobal.com
ZAMBIA 4
NIGERIA 5
KENYA 6
UGANDA 8
RWANDA 9
TANZANIA 7
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Table of Contents
ZAMBIA
• Jitters as President invokes Article 31 and parliament endorses 90 days of
threatened emergency
• Q1 2017 growth numbers hint at a three pronged growth engine
• Rally at equity market wanes under the weight of manufacturing and banking
stocks
NIGERIA
• Three reasons why the debut diaspora bond bodes well for the economy
• Why the Central Bank still faces a pressure point despite improvements in the
monetary environment
• Can renewed focus on DFIs unlock opportunity in the business environment?
KENYA
• First Quarter GDP Figures Show Slowing due to Contraction in Agriculture
• Monetary Policy Committee holds Central Bank Rate
• Kenyan companies to be able to sell securities in other countries
At a Glance
TANZANIA
• New mining laws threaten to erode sector gains
• Tempered inflationary pressure even as government issues a ban on
unprocessed grains
• Tussle between President Magufuli and the opposition endures
UGANDA
• Ruling Party Plots to get rid of the Presidential Age Limit
• GDP growth for the third quarter of the financial year 2016/17 under
performs
• Rising Public debt Prompts Presidential Approval on all Loans
RWANDA
• Election campaigns officially kick-off with transformation high on the agenda
• Economic growth decelerates in Q1 2017 on the back of contraction in
industry sector
• Rwanda taking progressive steps to improve access to energy

3AUGUST 2017 | MARKET UPDATE – AFRICA www.stratlinkglobal.com
Company
Capital Invested by Country (USD)
AFRICA DEALS LANDSCAPE
JANUARY - JULY 2017
Source: PitchBook, StratLink Africa
Deal Activity by Industry (Proportions)
Deal Activity by Types (Proportions)
Major Deals – July 2017
• Private car book application Swvl (Egypt) raised USD 500,000 of seed funding from Careem on July 17th, 2017
• Canyon Springs Investments 80 sold a 29.0% stake in Eloﬀ Mining Company (South Africa) to Universal Coal for USD 3.4 Million on July 13th, 2017
• Peda Studio (Nigeria) raised USD 100,000 in seed funding on July 6th, 2017
3.3 Billion
2.9 Billion
2.0 Billion
978.0 Million
919.5 Million
616.0 Million
442.8 Million
317.8 Million
219.3 Million
181.4 Million
170.4 Million
56.0 Million
48.2 Million
9.0 Million
9.0 Million
7.9 Million
7.4 Million
2.0 Million
110,000
South Africa
Kenya
Egypt
Congo
Uganda
Morocco
Namibia
Nigeria
Mauritius
Ghana
Benin
Ivory Coast
Tunisia
Lesotho
Tanzania
Swaziland
Ethiopia
Guinea
Madagascar
22.4%
22.4%
12.8%
12.8%
9.6%
9.6%
8.7%
8.7%
6.6%
6.6%
6.6% 6.6%
5.1%
5.1% 5.1%
5.1%
4.8%
4.8%
18.5%
18.5%
Merger/Acquisition Bankruptcy: Liquidation Seed
Secondary Transaction - Private Corporate Divestiture Pre/Accelerator/Incubator
Buyout/LBO Asset acquisition Growth/Expansion
Others
13.1%
13.1%
12.2%
8.7%
5.7%
5.2%
4.8%
3.9%
3.5%
3.1%
3.1%
2.6%
21.0%
Commercial Services ....................................
Software .......................................................
Other Business Products & Services ............
Metals, Minerals & Mining .............................
Consumer Non-Durables .................................
Other Financial Services ..................................
Retail ................................................................
Communications & Networking ......................
Media ...............................................................
Commercial Products ......................................
Commercial Banks ...........................................
Exploration, Production & Reﬁning .................
Others ............................................................

Company
President Invokes Article 31 of the Preservation
of Public Security Act
Our June 2017 issue tabled a case for guarded
optimism over the widening rift between the
government and the opposition. On July 6th, 2017
thePresidentinvokedArticle31ofthePreservation
of Public Security Act which was approved by
parliament, on July 11th, 2017, for a period of
90 days. Parliament’s approval of the President’s
declaration lends credence to our argument
(tabled in the January 2017 Africa Market Update)
that it was crucially important that the ruling party,
Patriotic Front, secured a majority in the National
Assembly.
POLITICAL OUTLOOK
GDP: USD 21.5 Bln | Population: 16.7 Mln
ZAMBIA
Caution over Political Developments
Investors are likely to watch the business
environment with caution in the coming
months following developments in the political
environment. Growing strain between the
government and the opposition, both actual and
perceived, is likely to prod investors into a cautious
position especially as many wait to observe the
impact of the prevailing security situation. We
still expect, however, that Zambia will remain a
major country of investor interest owing to two
considerations:
• Adverse conditions in South Africa and Angola
leave investors with few options in the region
especially for the near to medium-term outlook
• Amongst Southern Africa’s medium and small
economies (economies with a size below USD
100 Billion in GDP size), Zambia is the largest
making it pivotal for investors
BUSINESS NEWS ENVIRONMENT
Economic Growth Shows Mixed Performance
The economy grew by 3.0% in Q1 2017 with mixed
performance across sectors. One key take away
from the growth data is that Zambia’s rebound
from the 2015/16 economic slowdown could be
taking three prongs:• Trailers: In this category, we
have mining and financial services. On the mining
front, we note that the price of copper moderated
in Q1 2017 and this is likely to have been a key
factor informing this trend. Financial services is
likely to have been affected by a lag of tightened
credit conditions with the Q1 2017 Business
Environment Survey citing high interest rates and
inhibitive collateral requirements
• Moderate performers: Wholesale/retail and
hospitality both posted growth below 1.5%
in the quarter under review, signaling slow
recovery. These two sectors are likely to be
bearing the brunt of an adverse macroeconomic
environment with depressed disposable income
and tightened credit conditions presenting
an impediment to households’ consumption
appetite
ECONOMIC OUTLOOK
Stable Yields Curve
There was minimal movement in the sovereign
yield curve between April and May 2017, a trend
we believe was informed by either of two factors:
DEBT MARKET UPDATE
Rally Moderates on Slowdown by Manufacturing
and Banking Stocks
There has been moderation of the rally witnessed
over the last seven months at the stock exchange
withtheAllShareIndexshowingsignsofplateauing
off between June and July 2017.
EQUITY MARKET UPDATE
Full report available for purchase via:

Company
Cabinet Approves Gas Policy
In January 2017, our forecast for Nigeria argued
that reform of the policy environment was poised
to be the government’s key agenda in the months
to follow. Approval of the National Gas Policy by
the cabinet of July 5th, 2017, coming just two
months after the Senate passed the much awaited
Petroleum Industry and Governance Bill, serves as
yet another vital indicator of stepped up efforts
by the government to have in a place a policy
framework supportive of the country’s welfare.
The National Gas Policy is particularly important
for the country at this point as it seeks to diversify
from reliance on oil.
Note: Nigeria has Africa’s largest reserves of
natural gas and the ninth largest globally at 5.1
Trillion cubic meters.
POLITICAL OUTLOOK
NIGERIA
Central Bank Brings DFIs Under Focus
The Central Bank is shifting focus to Development
Finance Institutions (DFIs) as it seeks to unlock
hitherto untapped potential in catalyzing private
sector activity. Nigeria has four main DFIs namely:
• Bank of Industry
• Federal Mortgage Bank of Nigeria
• Bank of Agriculture
• Nigeria Export-Import Bank
• The Infrastructure Bank
• National Economic Reconstruction Fund
Undercapitalisation: A Key Challenge to DFIs
Whereas StratLink views this step as welcome,
undercapitalisation stands out as a key issue to be
addressed in the quest to have DFIs play a greater
role in Nigeria’s business environment. Reports
suggest a number of the DFIs are undercapitalised
and unable to optimally perform their functions.
Diversifying sources of funds should be a priority
itemformostoftheDFIsasthefederalgovernment
faces challenges in mobilizing revenue.
Central Bank Faces Reduced Pressure on
Improving Monetary Environment
Over the last one year, pressure on the Central
Bank has been emanating from three areas:
• Runaway inflation which breached the double
digit psychological ceiling in February 2016 and
has since touched a high of 18.7% in January
2017
• Weak growth in private sector credit, especially
in 2016, which raised concern over the recovery
momentum of the private sector
• The foreign exchange market where scarcity of
the greenback remains a key challenge
ECONOMIC OUTLOOK
Successful Issuance of Diaspora Bond
The federal government raised USD 300.0 Million
in its debut diaspora bond in June 2017 following
successful issuance of a five year paper, which
attracted 130.0% subscription, at 5.6%. This
issuance was important for three reasons:
• It enables Africa’s largest economy to leverage
its position as one of the world’s top remittance
receiving countries and helps cushion itself
from the present fiscal challenges.
DEBT MARKET UPDATE
Foreign Investors Remain Cautious Despite
General Improvement
Foreign investor inflow into the stock exchange
remains relatively low in spite of the surge in May
2017 that saw it stand at USD 232.0 Million. In the
first five months of 2017, foreign investor inflow
totaled USD 479.9 Million compared to USD 1.2
Billion in the same period in 2016. This suggests
that whereas the general macroeconomic
environment could be on a gradual rebound,
investor confidence is low.

Company
Court of Appeal Dissipates Uncertainty
In a landmark ruling dated July 20th, 2017, the
Court of Appeal overturned the High Court ruling
that would have prevented Dubai publishing
company, Al Ghurair, from printing presidential
ballot papers ahead of the August 8th, 2017
general election. StratLink believes there are two
key issues to be taken into consideration in light of
this ruling:
• One of key outcomes has been dissipation of
uncertainty that surrounded the likelihood of
the Presidential poll taking place on August
8th, 2017. In the recent past, the probability
that the Independent Electoral and Boundaries
could be sent back to the tendering drawing
board and still be expected to conduct elections
on August 8th, 2017 has emerged as a major
source of uncertainty
POLITICAL OUTLOOK
KENYA
Is Kenya Prepared for the Threat of Cyber Crime?
Recent cyber-attacks have awoken the global
community to the disastrous potential of
cybercrime which begs the question, does Kenya
have measures in place to protect itself against
this threat?
The unprecedented WannaCry ransomware
attack that took place in May 2017 is estimated
to have affected around 230,000.0 computers
across 150 countries and collected around USD
115,000.0 worth of Bitcoin ransom payments.
A second successive global ransomware attack
dubbed Petya hit the Ukraine severely as well as a
number of large European and US firms. In light of
this heightened threat, the Central Bank of Kenya
released a guidance note on cyber risk outlining
minimum requirements for banks to enhance
cyber security and requesting they submit a Cyber
Security Policy by the end of August. The 2014
(most recently available) Global Cybersecurity
Index, which assess the existence of national
structures in place to implement and promote
cyber security, ranks Kenya as 5th in Africa and
15th globally.
Contraction in Agriculture Dampens First Quarter
GDP Growth
The economy expanded by 4.7% in the first three
months of the year (quarter on quarter), marking a
deceleration in first quarter GDP growth relatively
to the same period in 2016. The slowdown was
heavily driven by a contraction in the agriculture
sector of 1.1% as a result of the drought
experienced over the same period. This is in sharp
contrast to the growth of 4.0% that the agriculture
sector underwent in Q1 2016. The electricity and
water supply, construction, and financial and
insurance sectors all recorded decelerated grown
over the period under review and thus contributed
to the weaker economic performance. The
accommodation and restaurants sector grew the
fastest during the first quarter of 2017, at 15.8%,
exceeding the 10.4% expansion it recorded in Q1
2016.
ECONOMIC OUTLOOK
Tight Liquidity in the Market
Yields have remained largely unchanged on the
short end of the yield curve in the month to 20th
July 2017, while there has been a slight decline in
the same for long term bonds possibly indicating a
wait and see attitude among investors.
DEBT MARKET UPDATE
Equity Prices Maintain Momentum
The NSE 20 share index has continued to rise, up
2.6% and 4.3% in the month and year to 19th July
2017, respectively. However, stakeholders will be
weary of a possible dip in equity prices around
election time so it remains to be seen whether the
current trend will hold.

Company
Unrelenting Tussle between Government and
opposition
On the domestic political front, Tanzania remains
calm and stable save for the unrelenting tussle
between government and opposition over
what they time as the President’s authoritarian
tendencies. The situation was exacerbated by
the recent decision by government to charge 51
members of opposition with unlawful assembly, as
well as the charging another opposition member
with allegedly assaulting the President for his
decision to ban pre-teenage mothers from school.
In a separate incident, the opposition coalition
Chadema chief whip was arrested on 20th July
2017 in what government termed as abuse of
freedoms of expression. These and other issues
have prompted the opposition coalition Chadema
to threaten to sue government and seek court
intervention if the ban on opposition rallies
instituted by President Magufuli in November
2016 persisted.
POLITICAL OUTLOOK
TANZANIA
New Laws Elevate Uncertainty in the Mining
Sector
Mining firms in Tanzania are reeling from a new set
of laws that are bound to radically alter the playing
field. As government fights to streamline the
sector and rid the Energy ministry of long standing
scandals, the President signed into law a new
mining bill which allows the government to own at
least a 16.0% stake in mining projects, raise royalty
tax for gold, copper, silver and platinum exports
to 6.0% from 4.0% increase in 2012 and gives
government authority to tear up and renegotiate
contracts for natural resources like gas or minerals,
and remove the right to international arbitration,
on top of a further 1.0% clearing fee on exports,
which was also recently imposed. This increasing
state intervention in private sector activity
threatens to erode the viability of the sector in the
long-term: The mining industry, Tanzania’s second
largest revenue earner after tourism, contributes
roughly 5.0% of GDP, generates about one-third
of export earnings and provides over 10.0% of
government revenue.
Tempered Inflationary Pressure as Government
Issues a Ban on Unprocessed Grains
Tanzania economy has witnessed elevated
inflationary pressures in recent months following
a tightening of the food supply and rising energy
costsinanenvironmentoftightliquidity,asituation
that prompted the Central bank to slash the Cash
Reserve Ratio by 200.0 bps to 8.0% in March 2017.
As a result, the economy has witnessed a steady
rise in broad money supply since March 2017;
capping at USD 10.5 Billion in the year ending May
2017 and representing a growth of 5.2% higher
than the 3.8% growth reported in the year to April
2017, but below the 12.1% recorded over the
same period in 2016.
ECONOMIC OUTLOOK
Decline in Short-Term Yields Endures
Yields in the short-term government instruments
continued trending south in July 2017 on the
back of easing liquidity: The interbank rate fell by
a further 50.0 bps to 4.8%, in the period under
review. The yields have maintained a steady
decline since October 2016 contrary to inflation
which has maintained an uptick since the same
time. However, inflation has declined for two
consecutive months down to 5.4% in June 2017.
DEBT MARKET UPDATE
Bourse Remains Bearish
The increased appetite for CRDB and TBL on
accountthattheyarepotentiallyunder-pricedwith
good fundamentals, saw the All Share index cash in
some gains reversing the sharp fall witnessed last
month due to the effects of the woes facing Acacia
mining shares, to rise by 3.5%, month-on-month
capping at 2,173.5 units. The two stocks were also
the most actively traded stocks accounting for
53.0% and 43.0% of the turnover, respectively.

Company
Ruling Party Plots to Scrap the Presidential Age
Limit
StratLink is likely to downgrade its assessment of
Uganda’s political risk environment in the months
ahead if plans to amend the 1995 Constitution
Article 102(b), which prohibits any Ugandan below
35 and above 75 years from vying for presidency,
sees light of day. We view this as a threat both
locally and regionally for the following reasons:
Locally
It comes as a build-up to two legislations which
have been inhibitive to the widening of the
country’s democratic space:
• The 2005 amendment, in which Parliament
did away with term limits for Presidents, was a
major blow to the country’s political landscape
• The Public Order Management Act (2013) which
empowers the Inspector General of Police to
regulate the conduct of all public meetings has
been alleged to be used by the state as a tool
to stifle dissent especially ahead of the February
2016 general election
POLITICAL OUTLOOK
UGANDA
Uganda Insurance Consortium to Issue Funds for
Drought Compensation to Farmers
Farmers affected by the drought that swept across
East Africa at the beginning of the year are to
be compensated under the Uganda Insurance
Agriculture Scheme (UAIS) to the tune of USD 1.4
million for losses incurred.
The money is meant to benefit a total of 63,865.0
farmers across Uganda who were profiled using
the Market User – Owned ICT4Ag – enabled
Information service (MUIIS), a satellite data-
enabled extension and advisory services program
that uses ICT to address the current agricultural
information gap in the country. The drought drove
food crop prices up and pushed inflation form 5.9%
in January to 6.4% in June. The funds will give the
farmers better control of their produce across the
value chain, from the farm to the selling point to
ensure maximum benefits are reaped from their
output.
The Economy Slows with Poor Agricultural
Performance
GDP growth for the third quarter of the financial
year 2016/17 (January to Match 2017) stood
at 3.9%, slower than the economic expansion
exhibited in the same quarter of the previous
three financial years.
ECONOMIC OUTLOOK
Yields fall marginally
Rates fell slightly on the long term end of the
yield curve in the month leading to 19th July 2017
but there were otherwise no drastic changes.
Inflation declined 40.0 basis points from 6.8%
in May to 6.4% June driven by a decline in food
prices and the stability of the shilling. Food crop
price inflation declined to 18.1% from 23.1% in the
previous month mainly driven by a fall in the cost
of vegetables and fruit. Correspondingly, price
growth of energy fuels and utilities also eased to
4.9% from 5.1% in May. The Interbank rate moved
down 80.0 basis points from 9.9% in May 2017 to
9.1% in June.
DEBT MARKET UPDATE
Equities Gain Slightly
The equities market gained slightly, appreciating
by 0.8% month – on – month as of 21st July 2017,
and finally trading above the levels it stood at in
the same period of 2016.

Company
Rwanda Officially Kicks off Election Campaigns
All is set for the presidential elections slated for
4th August, with the three-week campaign period
having officially kicked-off on July 15th for: The
incumbent President Kagame, who goes into the
race as the favorite buoyed by his ruling party’s
comparatively vast resources and riding on a
number of successes over the past seven years
in the areas of infrastructure, regional integration
and stability but often criticized as having failed to
open up political space and allow alternative voice;
Frank Habineza of the Democratic Green Party of
Rwanda, the only opposition party out of eleven to
present a candidate and Philipe Mpayimana, the
sole independent candidate on the ballot.
POLITICAL OUTLOOK
RWANDA
Energy Sector Receives Boost from World Bank
Rwanda, like its peers in the region, is taking steps
to put in place progressive measures to improve
access to energy, energy efficiency and investment
in renewable sources. In this regard, the country’s
energy sector is set to receive a boost following
the USD 50.0 Million financial agreement with
the World Bank Group aimed at enhancing
power connectivity through off-grid solutions
while facilitating private-sector participation
in renewable off-grid electrification through
addressing main constraints that face households
and private companies in the off-grid market
under the recently approved Rural Electrification
Strategy. Rwanda trails regional peers with regard
to overall energy access and efficiency. Presently,
about 30.0% of Rwanda households are connected
to electricity, up from about 11.0% in 2011; while
the country’s total installed power capacity is
around 208.0 megawatts with a target of at least
563.0 megawatts by 2018. Likewise, government
aims to provide 445,500 new off-grid connections,
which will give about 1.8 million people access
to off-grid electricity, hence, this investment in
off-grid solutions is an important step forward
towards realizing these energy targets.
Economy Decelerates in Q1 2017
Rwanda’s economy exhibited lackluster
performance, growing by 1.7% in the first quarter
of 2017 (January-March, 2017), growth that
paled in comparison to the 8.9% registered in
the same quarter in 2016, and to the East Africa
Community (EAC) compatriots who registered
better performance in the same quarter, making
Rwanda to lose its status as the region’s out-
performer. Growth was driven by the services
sector which contributed 46.0% to GDP while
Agriculture contributed 32.0% and Industry 15.0%.
Nonetheless, government remains confident of
attaining the 6.2% economic growth for 2016,
despite a sluggish start to the year.
ECONOMIC OUTLOOK
Yields Maintain Downtrend
The decline in yields in the short term government
instruments endured between June and July, 2017
as the liquidity squeeze in the money market
endured with the interbank rate rising, albeit
marginally, by 10.0 bps between May and June,
2017 despite the decision by the Central bank to
slash the benchmark rate by a further 25.0 bps in
June 2017 as it looks to stimulate the economy
following deceleration in growth in Q1 2017.
DEBT MARKET UPDATE
Positive Outlook for RSE
The Rwanda Stock Exchange has witnessed cyclical
movement in the first half of the year as investors
brace for the August elections. As traders embark
on the second half of 2017, expectations are high
on the back of contained inflationary pressures.
Nonetheless, the bourse is still recovering from
a volatile year in 2016 riding on positive results
posting by listed firms. Consequently, the All Share
Index appreciated by 0.1%, month-on-month and
declined by 4.3%, year-on-year to 124.4 units.

Company
StratLink in the News: A look into the economic growth & wage growth
disparity in select Sub-Saharan Africa countries
In our latest commentary, StratLink provided analysis of the disparity between high economic growth and subdued
growth in wages in select Sub-Saharan Africa economies. This was backed by a comparative analysis of the trend in peer
economies including Bangladesh, Indonesia, Turkey, Pakistan and Brazil which reveals grave disparity between economic
growth and growth in wages in economies such as Kenya, Botswana and Uganda.
Please click the button to view the full article:
Why the pressure for higher minimum wages is gaining traction in Africa

Company
STRATLINK - AFRICA TEAM
Konstantin Makarov – Managing Partner
konstantin.makarov@StratLinkglobal.com
Dina Farfel – Partner
dfarfel@StratLinkglobal.com
Kyle Drexler – Associate
kyle.drexler@StratLinkglobal.com
Benson Njeri – Analyst
benson.njeri@StratLinkglobal.com
Julians Amboko – Senior Research Analyst
julians.amboko@StratLinkglobal.com
Gianluca Storchi – Senior Research Analyst
gianluca.storchi@StratLinkglobal.com
Sophia Sifuma – Research Analyst
sophia.sifuma@StratLinkglobal.com
Peter Mutisya – Director Graphic Design
peter.mutisya@StratLinkglobal.com
STRATLINK AFRICA LTD - WHO WE ARE
StratLink is an Africa focused financial advisory company
with Capital Raising Advisory, Corporate Advisory and
Market Research as our core business lines. We believe in
the growth potential of sub-Saharan African economies and
partner with our clients to execute their vision by providing
quality services and access to capital. We recognize
opportunities in the region and connect the fastest growing
middle market companies with leading global investment
banks, private equity firms and family offices. We value the
importance of making informed decisions and leverage our
regional knowledge to the advantage of our clients.
Sub-Saharan Africa: In-depth macro and microeconomic
research
Within our purview of coverage are nine economies –
Kenya, Tanzania, Uganda, Rwanda, Ethiopia, Nigeria, Ghana,
Angola and Gabon. We undertake incisive research and
analysis of each of the countries’ macro and microeconomic
environment, debt and equity markets. We also conduct
sector specific research and analysis shedding insight on
market landscape, existing gaps and opportunities as well
as potential challenges.
Our guarantee: Competent team, reliable data
Our research is anchored in a competent and versatile
team traversing the fields of economics and finance with
qualifications from globally recognized institutions. The
team is backed by subscription to reliable databases such
as Business Monitor International, Bloomberg, Thomson
One Research, World Economics and The World Today.
As such, our guarantee is reliable and up to date data in
an increasingly dynamic region. Further, we reach out to
relevant bodies in concerned markets including Central
Banks, ministries and state departments.
Authoritative voice on regional economics
StratLink has become an authoritative voice for commentary
and opinion on issues pertaining to Sub-Saharan African
economies and investment. Reputable media including
CNBC Africa, Nation Media Group, CCTV and Bloomberg
have reached out to the company for opinion and analysis.
Where we are based
Our head office is in Nairobi, Kenya with satellite offices in
New York, Kampala and Kuala Lumpur.

Company
ContactDetails
STRATLINK AFRICA
StratLink - Africa, Limited.
Delta Riverside, Block 4,
4th Floor, Riverside Drive,
Nairobi, Kenya
nairobi@stratlinkglobal.com
www.stratlinkglobal.com
+254202572792

August 2017 Africa Market Update (Abridged)

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August 2017 Africa Market Update (Abridged)