Scott Nolan Partner, Founders Fund

1. Nuclear 2.0:
Past, potential and politics
Scott Nolan
Partner, Founders Fund

2. Energy Portfolio
StorageGeneration
More to come…
@scottnolan

3. I. Energy
II. Nuclear
III. Regulation
IV. Politics
@scottnolan

4. Fossil fuels still dominate US consumption
Source: US Energy Information Association, http://www.eia.gov/totalenergy/data/monthly/pdf/sec1_7.pdf @scottnolan

5. Global energy mix hasn’t changed much in 25 years
Source: BP Statistical Review of World Energy, 2011 @scottnolan

6. Peak oil still a valid concern
Source: Colin Campbell, Association for the Study of Peak Oil, 2012 @scottnolan

7. Climate change: harder to find skeptics
Source: Climate Change 2007: Synthesis Report - Summary for Policymakers @scottnolan

8. Tech alone won’t achieve 2035 targets
Source: World Energy Outlook 2011, Executive Summary @scottnolan

9. Meanwhile, forecasts call for status quo through 2035
2035
Source: SRI Engineering, Stanford Global Climate and Energy Project @scottnolan

10. Nuclear the most effective option to reduce CO2
Source: Lang, “Emission Cuts Realities - Electricity Generation” 2010 @scottnolan

11. Nuclear also the most affordable and scalable
Source: Lang, “Emission Cuts Realities - Electricity Generation” 2010 @scottnolan

12. Globally, heading backwards
Source: US Energy Information Administration @scottnolan

13. I. Energy
II. Nuclear
III. Regulation
IV. Politics
@scottnolan

14. The basics
FusionFission
Splitting heavy atoms
Operating today
Combining light atoms
Breakthroughs needed
@scottnolan

15. 40s & 50s: nuclear’s golden age
Chicago Pile-1 (1942) USS Nautilus (1954)
@scottnolan

16. Limitless possibility
“Our children will enjoy in their homes electrical energy too
cheap to meter... It is not too much to expect that our
children will know of great periodic regional famines in the
world only as matters of history, will travel effortlessly over
the seas and under them and through the air with a
minimum of danger and at great speeds, and will experience
a lifespan far longer than ours, as disease yields and man
comes to understand what causes him to age."
Lewis Strauss
Chairman of US Atomic Energy Commission
1954
@scottnolan

17. By early 80s, headed off the rails…
@scottnolan

18. Valid concerns
WasteSafety Cost
@scottnolan

19. 35 years later: same challenges?
WasteSafety Cost
@scottnolan

20. Investment criterion 1: solve all three
WasteSafety Cost
@scottnolan
Why won’t it
lead to another
Fukushima?
How will this not
worsen waste
challenges?
Can it be
cheaper than
coal and LNG?

21. The paths not taken
Novel moderators
Alternative fuels
Advanced coolants
Modular architectures
@scottnolan

22. Path dependencies matter
@scottnolan

23. A nuclear renaissance?
And many more…
@scottnolan

24. TAP’s answers to Criterion 1
WasteSafety Cost
@scottnolan

25. Investment criterion 2: barriers to entry
@scottnolan
Technology
Brand
Scale
Network effects

26. Investment criterion 2: where to focus
@scottnolan
Technology
Brand
Scale
Network effects

27. Investment criterion 3: go-to-market strategy
@scottnolan
Given the broader environment,
how do you commercialize in an
acceptable time frame?

28. Nuclear innovation and regulation
@scottnolan

29. A history of important progress
@scottnolan

30. I. Energy
II. Nuclear
III. Regulation
IV. Politics
@scottnolan

31. Deep innovation across highly regulated industries
@scottnolan

32. The next wave of low-hanging fruit
@scottnolan

33. More changes to come
@scottnolan

34. Regulation as barrier to entry
Process head starts
High cost of entry
Operational complexity
Thought leadership
@scottnolan

35. I. Energy
II. Nuclear
III. Regulation
IV. Politics
@scottnolan

36. Mr. Smith tried hard
@scottnolan

37. How things go wrong
Have no clear goals
Take a reactionary approach
Rely on a trade org to represent you
Never spend time in DC
Rely on intros during a crisis to fix things
@scottnolan

38. How things go right
Have clear issues you want to win
Be proactive and outcome-focused
Have a portfolio of representation
Build relationships, awareness in DC
Drive the conversation before any crisis
@scottnolan

39. Not a zero sum game
Source: Wired, May 16 2015 @scottnolan

40. Working with the government for change
@scottnolan

41. Working together for change
@scottnolan

42. Thanks
@scottnolan