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July 19, 2011




Asia Pacific: Technology: Semiconductors

                                                                                                                                            Equity Research

Another inventory correction: 3Q down, 4Q up; Buy TSMC (on CL)
3Q outlook: Wafer -10% qoq, but packaging and semi up qoq
                                                                                                         OUR ASIA-PAC SEMI COVERAGE
We now estimate TSMC/UMC revenues to decline 6.5%/12% qoq in 3Q11, due
to the recent order cuts across nearly all applications. Further, semi packaging                                                                              Upside/downside
                                                                                                          Stock & Ticker       Rating    12m TP       Price           potential
orders have also weakened, but shipment is still tracking up 5% qoq in 3Q,                                TSMC (2330.TW)        Buy*      NT$90    NT$70.7              27.3%
                                                                                                          TSMC ADS (TSM)        Buy*      US$15    US$12.2              23.0%
consistent with semi industry leader Fairchild’s 3Q guidance. For Mediatek and                            UMC (2303.TW)        Neutral   NT$14.9   NT$13.8                8.0%
                                                                                                          UMC ADS (UMC)         Sell      US$2.6    US$2.4                8.3%
MStar, we expect rev to increase 12%-15% qoq with stable margins in 3Q11,                                 Mediatek (2454.TW)   Neutral   NT$290    NT$258               12.4%
                                                                                                          MStar (3697.TW)       Buy      NT$250     NT$157              59.2%
partially due to handset inventory restocking among Chinese handset makers.
Meanwhile, our Asia-Pacific tech hardware team estimates about 15% qoq                                   Note: *denotes stock is on our regional Conviction List.
                                                                                                         Stock prices are as of the market close of July 14, 2011.
increase in most PC OEMs orders in 3Q11. In terms of visibility, PC OEM/semi
packaging companies expect improving clarity in Aug/Sept. We revise our                                  For important disclosures, please go to
                                                                                                         http://www.gs.com/research/hedge.html.
2011E-2013E EPS for our coverage by -27.3% to +1.8% to reflect inventory
                                                                                                         Source: Datastream, Gao Hua Securities Research
correction, competition. Consequently, we lower our 12-m TPs by up to -14%.                              estimates.

                                                                                                         UPCOMING EVENTS
Inventory correction to end in 3Q; demand to pick up in 4Q
We attribute the inventory correction in 3Q11 to overstocking post the Japan                              CY2Q11 result reporting schedule
                                                                                                          Company Name          Ticker                Date
earthquake, soft demand, and macro concerns leading to minimal inventory.                                 TSMC                 2330.TW          Thursday, July 28
                                                                                                          UMC                  2303.TW         Wednesday, August 3
On a positive note, downstream is trending much better than upstream—                                     Mediatek             2454.TW         Wednesday, July 27
indicating effective inventory clearing—Chinese handset makers have started                               MStar                3697.TW            Early August

to re-stock; Nokia component order should recover in late 3Q11 based on our                              Source: Company data
supply chain checks; and CNY is early in 2012 (late January).

Maintain Buy (on CL) on TSMC
We note that TSMC outperformed when its utilization was low (as seen
since late-April, TSMC +2% (incl. cash div) vs. TAIEX -6%). We expect
TSMC’s capex to decrease from US$7.8 bn/US$6.5 bn to US$6.9 bn/US$6
bn in 2011E/2012E given the inventory correction, potentially alleviating
market concerns over excess foundry capacity. We think TSMC’s 28 nm
capacity is on track to reach 10K WPM by end of 2011 for the next wave of
mobile computing and arrival of ARM-CPU. In our view, TSMC’s upcoming
3Q guidance should help remove uncertainty over the demand outlook.

Mediatek: Muted seasonal growth in 3Q11; maintain Neutral
Our supply chain checks indicate healthy demand for 6252 (low-cost SOC) and
6236 (EDGE smart feature phone), while 6253 is being potentially phased out.
We expect Mediatek’s rev to increase 14% qoq in 3Q11 due to seasonality and
a lacklustre 2Q. Mediatek has recently cut 6252/6253 prices, but its overall ASP,
margin should remain stable due to increasing share of 6236 in the mix.
Donald Lu, Ph.D                                                                   Goldman Sachs does and seeks to do business with
+86(10)6627-3123 donald.lu@ghsl.cn Beijing Gao Hua Securities Company Limited
Lingling Hu
                                                                                  companies covered in its research reports. As a result,
+86(10)6627-3520 lingling.hu@ghsl.cn Beijing Gao Hua Securities Company Limited   investors should be aware that the firm may have a conflict of
Evan Xu                                                                           interest that could affect the objectivity of this report. Investors
+86(10)6627-3176 evan.xu@ghsl.cn Beijing Gao Hua Securities Company Limited
                                                                                  should consider this report as only a single factor in making
                                                                                  their investment decision. For Reg AC see the end of the text.
                                                                                  For other important disclosures, see the Disclosure Appendix,
                                                                                  or go to www.gs.com/research/hedge.html. Analysts
                                                                                  employed by non-US affiliates are not registered/qualified as
                                                                                  research analysts with FINRA in the U.S.
The Goldman Sachs Group, Inc.                                                                                                             Global Investment Research
July 19, 2011                                                                              Asia Pacific: Technology: Semiconductors




                                 TSMC (2330.TW, Buy, on Conviction List)
                                 TSMC reported in-line 2Q11 sales of NT$110.5 bn (+4.9% qoq, +5.3% yoy), nearly
                                 reaching the high end of its guidance of NT$109-$111 bn. We expect TSMC to meet its
                                 margin guidance in 2Q11, as well.

                                 We estimate TSMC’s rev to decline 6.5% qoq in 3Q11 due to recent order cut across
                                 nearly all applications based on our industry checks. Therefore, we now forecast
                                 TSMC’s utilization rate to decline from 100% in 1Q11 to 98%/87% in 2Q11/3Q11,
                                 respectively. We attribute the 3Q weakness to inventory clearing after the restocking post
                                 the Japan earthquake, softening demand especially in Europe, and concerns over
                                 deteriorating economic growth leading to minimal inventory. In 3Q11, we expect foundry rev
                                 correction of 10% qoq vs. packaging (up 5% qoq), Mediatek and MStar (up 10%+ qoq), and
                                 most PC OEM’s current PC orders (up 15%-20% qoq). We believe this inventory correction
                                 is a typical pattern in the semiconductor supply chain.

                                 We still expect the correction to end mostly in 3Q11 and foundry wafer shipment to
                                 increase qoq in 4Q11 despite a weaker-than-expected 3Q11 for five reasons: (1) Most
                                 Chinese handset makers have cleared their excess inventory in 2Q11 so that their demand
                                 should increase almost seasonally in 3Q and 4Q11; (2) Nokia’s inventory correction should
                                 complete mostly in 3Q11 based on our supply chain checks and Nokia demand should
                                 normalize in 4Q11; (3) potential iPhone 5 introduction may stimulate iPhone replacement
                                 demand; (4) Our Asia-Pacific tech hardware team has recently indicated that PC ODM
                                 shipment is above expectations in 2Q11 and most PC OEMs (except Acer) expect 15%-20%
                                 qoq growth in PC orders in 3Q11; and (5) wafer inventory clearing seems decisive in 3Q11
                                 on the aforementioned pattern of bifurcation of 3Q growth between upstream and
                                 downstream companies.

                                 We expect TSMC capex to decrease from US$7.8 bn/US$6.5 bn to US$6.9 bn/US$6
                                 bn in 2011E/2012E, respectively given the inventory correction, alleviating some
                                 market concerns of foundry excess capacity. We note that GlobalFoundries (GF) has
                                 recently had a senior management restructuring partially due to weak execution in R&D, 32
                                 nm yield, and 28 nm qualification. In addition, SMIC announced on July 18 that its COO has
                                 been promoted as SMIC’s chairman, Executive Director and acting CEO with effect from
                                 July 15. In our view, these recent management issues at GF and SMIC may result in
                                 reducing the effectiveness of capex, potentially alleviating concerns over excess supply in
                                 the near term. Furthermore, our new capex assumptions indicate TSMC’s depreciation
                                 increasing 30% in 2011E (which could be a cause for market concern) would decline to
                                 5.5% in 2012E.

                                 We view 28nm dominance, mobile computing for smartphone and tablet, and ARM-based
                                 CPU for PC as TSMC’s major growth drivers in 2012E-2013E. We think TSMC’s 28nm
                                 capacity is on track to reach 10K WPM by end of 2011 for the next wave of mobile
                                 computing and arrival of ARM-CPU. In our view, GF or Samsung not having any significant
                                 foundry design-wins at 28nm may be partially due to their choice of gate-first technology.
                                 We expect 28nm to be TSMC’s fastest ramping node and believe that 28nm should
                                 generate healthier returns than 40nm node.

                                 Historically, we note that TSMC’s stock troughed at the beginning of each inventory
                                 correction and outperformed when its utilization was low (since late April, TSMC +2% (incl.
                                 cash div of NT$3 per share) vs. TAIEX -6%). The stock outperformed TAIEX from
                                 September 2008 to March 2009 when utilization rate had troughed (see Exhibit 2). In our
                                 view, TSMC’s upcoming 3Q guidance should help remove the uncertainty over the demand
                                 outlook.

                                 We revised our 2011E-2013E EPS by -6.3% to +1.8% to reflect inventory correction.
                                 Consequently, we lower our 12-month P/E-based TP for TSMC/ADS by 1% to NT$90/US$15.
                                 Key risks include USD depreciation.

Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research                                                                                         2
July 19, 2011                                                                                                                            Asia Pacific: Technology: Semiconductors




                                 Exhibit 1: We revise down our EPS for 3Q11E by 14.6% due to worse-than-expected
                                 inventory correction
                                 TSMC estimates revisions

                                  TSMC                                        3Q2011E                          2011E                         2012E                                       2013E
                                                                         New      Old         Diff.   New          Old       Diff.      New      Old      Diff.                     New      Old       Diff.
                                  Revenue (NT$ mn)                    103,266 112,794        -8.4% 430,781     449,011      -4.1%    499,513 529,289     -5.6%                   560,010 573,321      -2.3%
                                  Gross margin (%)                      43.0%   45.0%      -197bps   45.9%       46.6%     -67bps      47.4%   46.4%     99bps                     45.6%   43.7%     188bps
                                  Operating margin (%)                  30.2%   33.3%      -305bps   33.8%       35.0%    -116bps      35.7%   35.4%     33bps                     34.1%   32.5%     161bps
                                  Net margin (%)                        28.1%   30.1%      -204bps   31.0%       31.7%     -74bps      31.8%   31.4%     34bps                     30.1%   28.9%     121bps
                                  EPS (NT$)-local                       $1.12    1.31       -14.6%    5.15        5.49      -6.3%       6.12    6.42     -4.6%                     $6.50    6.38       1.8%

                                 Source: Goldman Sachs Research estimates.



                                 Exhibit 2: We note that TSMC stock has generally troughed at the beginning of the first
                                 quarter of declining utilization
                                 TSMC stock price vs. utilization rate

                                                      120%                                                                                                90
                                                                      TSMC Quarterly Utilization Rate (LHS)              TSMC Stock Price (RHS)

                                                      110%                                                                                                80

                                                      100%
                                                                                                                                                          70

                                                      90%
                                                                                                                                                          60




                                                                                                                                                                  Close Price (NT$)
                                   Utilization rate




                                                      80%
                                                                                                                                                          50
                                                      70%
                                                                                                                                                          40
                                                      60%
                                                                                                                                                          30
                                                      50%

                                                                                                                                                          20
                                                      40%

                                                      30%                                                                                                 10

                                                      20%                                                                                                 0
                                                             Jan-94
                                                             Nov-94



                                                             Jan-97

                                                             May-98

                                                             Sep-99


                                                             Jun-01




                                                             Jan-04

                                                             May-05

                                                             Sep-06
                                                             Feb-07
                                                             Jan-08
                                                             Nov-08
                                                             May-09
                                                             Jun-94



                                                             Aug-96
                                                              Jul-97




                                                             Feb-00
                                                             Jan-01
                                                             Nov-01


                                                             Aug-03
                                                              Jul-04




                                                             Aug-07
                                                             Jun-08




                                                             Dec-11
                                                             Mar-96


                                                             Dec-97




                                                              Jul-00




                                                             Mar-03


                                                             Dec-04




                                                             Aug-10
                                                             Feb-11
                                                             Apr-95
                                                             Oct-95




                                                             Oct-98
                                                             Apr-99




                                                             Apr-02
                                                             Oct-02




                                                             Oct-05
                                                             Apr-06




                                                             Oct-09
                                                             Mar-10

                                                              Jul-11
                                 Source: Datastream, company data, Goldman Sachs Research estimates.



                                 Exhibit 3: We also note that TSMC’s stock outperformed when its utilization was low and
                                 underperformed when it reached 100%
                                 TSMC relative performance vs. utilization rate

                                             120%                                                                                                         4.5
                                                             TSMC Quarterly Utilization Rate (LHS)       TSMC relative performance to TWSE index (RHS)

                                                 110%                                                                                                     4.0

                                             100%
                                                                                                                                                          3.5

                                                      90%
                                                                                                                                                                              Relative performance




                                                                                                                                                          3.0
                                   Utilization rate




                                                      80%
                                                                                                                                                          2.5
                                                      70%
                                                                                                                                                          2.0
                                                      60%
                                                                                                                                                          1.5
                                                      50%

                                                                                                                                                          1.0
                                                      40%

                                                      30%                                                                                                 0.5

                                                      20%                                                                                                 0.0
                                                             Nov-94




                                                             Nov-08
                                                             Jan-94




                                                             Aug-96
                                                             Jan-97

                                                             May-98

                                                             Sep-99


                                                             Jun-01



                                                             Aug-03
                                                             Jan-04

                                                             May-05

                                                             Sep-06
                                                             Feb-07
                                                             Aug-07
                                                             Jan-08

                                                             May-09
                                                             Nov-01
                                                             Jun-94




                                                              Jul-97




                                                             Feb-00
                                                             Jan-01




                                                              Jul-04




                                                             Jun-08




                                                             Dec-11
                                                             Mar-96


                                                             Dec-97




                                                              Jul-00




                                                             Mar-03


                                                             Dec-04




                                                             Aug-10
                                                             Feb-11
                                                             Apr-95
                                                             Oct-95




                                                             Oct-98
                                                             Apr-99




                                                             Apr-02
                                                             Oct-02




                                                             Oct-05
                                                             Apr-06




                                                             Oct-09
                                                             Mar-10

                                                              Jul-11




                                 Source: Datastream, company data, Goldman Sachs Research estimates.


Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research                                                                                                                                                                  3
July 19, 2011                                                                                                                    Asia Pacific: Technology: Semiconductors




                                 UMC (2303.TW, Neutral)
                                 UMC reported 2Q11 parent sales of NT$28.15 bn (+0.1% qoq, -5.4% yoy), slightly above GS
                                 forecast of NT$27.67 bn (-1.6% qoq, -7% yoy) and met company’s guidance of a flattish
                                 quarter during the 1Q11 earnings release. We expect UMC’s 2Q GPM to be largely in line
                                 with guidance at low-mid 20% and utilization rate at around 85% with 8” slightly higher
                                 than 12”.

                                 UMC is holding a conservative view about the 3Q11 outlook and has indicated that growth
                                 in 3Q is not likely to match the seasonal level due to macro slowdown concerns. The
                                 company noted that overall demand has not been strong since 2Q—relatively stable for
                                 STB, Digital TV, and handset components, but ODD is showing slowdown during the past
                                 few weeks. Communication (Baseband, Broadband, wireless infrastructure) demand is
                                 weak as well. We estimate UMC’s 3Q revenue to decline 12% qoq, partially due to its large
                                 exposure to Nokia.

                                 The company indicated that ASP for 65nm and above has been under pressure as the
                                 customers have more bargain power, while ASP of 40nm is relatively stable. So far, UMC
                                 has 45 tape-outs in 40nm, 22 in production and 16 customers. The company maintains its
                                 guidance that 40nm would account for 10% of total revenue in 2H11. Besides, UMC expects
                                 pilot production for one client in 28nm in 3Q11.

                                 We estimate that UMC would recognize higher non-operating income in 3Q due to the
                                 dividend income from its non-core holdings in Farady, SiS, and Novatek, etc. We are also
                                 reducing our capex estimates from US$1.8 bn/US$1.2 bn to US$1.5 bn/US$800 mn at UMC
                                 in 2011E and 2012E, respectively given the inventory correction.

                                 UMC has higher leverage than TSMC and has generally lost market share to TSMC when
                                 the industry saw a correction in inventory. We expect UMC’s stock to be lacklustre as the
                                 demand outlook remains uncertain and would await their 3Q guidance in late July/early
                                 August. In near term, we think the stock may see some weakness during the earnings
                                 season.

                                 We lower our 2011E-2013E EPS by 2%-27% to reflect inventory correction and market share
                                 loss. Consequently, we lower our 12-month P/B-based TP by 1% to NT$14.9. Risks: Upside -
                                 strong IDM outsourcing; downside – market share loss in 40nm and 28nm.


                                 Exhibit 4: We cut our estimates to reflect the demand and ASP pressures
                                 UMC estimates revisions

                                  UMC                               3Q2011E                        2011E                           2012E                         2013E
                                                            New         Old      Diff.     New        Old      Diff.     New          Old      Diff.      New       Old      Diff.
                                  Revenue (NT$ mn)         24,688     28,675   -13.9%    107,789   115,635    -6.8%    119,687     131,572    -9.0%    128,310   136,316    -5.9%
                                  Gross margin (%)          14.4%      22.3%   -798bps     20.9%     24.6%   -371bps     21.7%       23.8%   -207bps     21.7%     21.7%     0bps
                                  Net margin (%)             8.6%      12.9%   -430bps     10.4%     13.3%   -293bps     10.7%       12.5%   -179bps     10.6%     10.2%    44bps
                                  EPS (NT$)-local            0.17       0.30   -42.6%       0.90      1.23   -27.3%       1.03        1.33   -22.1%       1.10      1.12    -2.0%


                                  Wafer Shipment (K unit    1,004      1,131   -11.2%      4,339     4,582    -5.3%      4,812       5,239    -8.1%      5,319     5,609    -5.2%
                                  Utilization rate          74.7%      84.2%   -946bps     82.4%     86.9%   -455bps     86.8%       93.4%   -654bps     91.9%     95.1%   -324bps


                                 Source: Goldman Sachs Research estimates.




                                 Mediatek (2454.TW, Neutral)
                                 Mediatek released June quarter sales of NT$20.96 bn (+5.5% qoq, -30% yoy), in line with
                                 our estimate of NT$20.8 bn (+4.7% qoq, -30.6% yoy), at the low end of its guidance of
                                 NT$20.9bn-22.3bn.

                                 Our supply chain checks indicate that demand for 6252 (low cost SOC) and 6236
                                 (EDGE smart feature phone solution) has been healthy, while 6253 is being

Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research                                                                                                                                         4
July 19, 2011                                                                                                       Asia Pacific: Technology: Semiconductors




                                 potentially phased out. We believe demand should improve significantly qoq in 3Q11 due
                                 to seasonal demand and a low base in 2Q11 when the industry had liquidated inventory
                                 and went through restructuring. Mediatek also recently cut prices on 6252 and 6253 to
                                 compete with Spreadtrum and MStar. But, we expect its overall handset ASP and margins
                                 to remain stable due to increasing higher-ASP 6235/6236 in the product mix. Mediatek
                                 indicated that the mix of 6235/6236 should increase from 15% in 1Q11 to 20% in 2Q11. We
                                 forecast Mediatek 3Q rev to increase 14% qoq in 3Q11.

                                 Mediatek sampled the second smartphone platform (HSUPA, 3.75G, 650MHz processor)
                                 with several clients in the second quarter and indicated that the customers may launch
                                 products in the near term at the earliest. This second platform is based on Android 2.3 OS.
                                 The company noted that it has shipped less than 2 mn smartphone so far in 2011, but
                                 maintained its full year target of 10 mn smartphones, implying a back-end loaded year.
                                 Mediatek also expects to ship 10mn WCDMA feature phones and 12mn TD chips.

                                 Besides, the company is positive on the TV SOC market and expects it to be the highest
                                 growth segment this year with a stable ASP outlook.

                                 On July 13, Mediatek announced a new share buyback program of 8mn shares (0.73% of its
                                 outstanding shares) at the price range of NT$247-371 within two months till Sep 13.

                                 Mediatek shares have contracted significantly post its cash div ex-date. We believe that its
                                 3Q guidance and share buyback should help stabilize the share price near-term. However,
                                 the growth outlook of its 3G smartphone remains challenging due to Qualcomm’s
                                 intensifying competition. Unless its smart feature phone shipment could reach 30%-40% of
                                 product mix in the next 12 months, trading at 19X NTM consensus P/E, Mediatek’s
                                 valuation appear to lackluster (sector at 13.5X 2011E P/E), in our view. We maintain our
                                 Neutral rating.

                                 We lower our 2011E-2013E EPS by 2%-7% to reflect increasing competition. Consequently,
                                 we lower our 12-month P/E-based TP by 5% to NT$290. Key Risks: upside – fast
                                 smartphone adoption in emerging countries; downside – intensifying 2G competition.


                                 Exhibit 5: We lower our estimates due to weak demand in low-end feature phones and
                                 ASP pressure due to competition
                                 Mediatek estimates revisions

                                  Mediatek estimates              3Q2011E                      2011E                     2012E                       2013E
                                  (GAAP)                   New       Old      Diff.     New       Old    Diff.     New      Old      Diff.     New      Old      Diff.
                                  Revenue (NT$ mn)       23,900    24,863     -3.9%   89,221   90,680    -1.6%   102,491 106,641     -3.9%   106,448 110,740     -3.9%
                                  Gross margin (%)        46.8%     47.1%   -102bps    46.6%    47.1%   -50bps     47.4%   48.9%   -146bps     47.4%   48.9%   -149bps
                                  Operating margin (%)    19.3%     19.6%   -340bps    17.8%    18.2%   -45bps     20.7%   21.9%   -124bps     21.3%   22.6%   -127bps
                                  Net margin (%)          19.3%     19.6%   -321bps    18.1%    18.5%   -42bps     19.8%   21.0%   -113bps     20.3%   21.5%   -114bps
                                  EPS (NT$)                4.25      4.41     -3.8%    14.89    15.24    -2.3%     18.74   20.12     -6.9%     19.95   21.22     -6.0%


                                 Source: Goldman Sachs Research estimates.




                                 MStar (3697.TW, Buy)
                                 MStar’s 2Q11 sales stood at NT$8.35 bn (+1.8% qoq, +8.9% yoy), in line with our estimate
                                 of NT$8.3bn (+1% qoq, +8% yoy), reaching the mid range of its revenue guidance of
                                 NT$8.07bn-8.55bn.

                                 MStar indicated that its orders have been within expectations and stable in the past two
                                 weeks. The company indicated that 3Q is normally a seasonally high growth quarter, and
                                 expects to outperform the industry growth average with stable margins. We note that the
                                 European TV market has been muted and expect MStar’s 3Q rev to increase 12% qoq vs up
                                 23% qoq in 3Q10.




Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research                                                                                                                            5
July 19, 2011                                                                                                               Asia Pacific: Technology: Semiconductors




                                 For the TV business, MStar indicated that its market share has increased among Japanese
                                 brands, and remained stable at domestic Chinese TV brands and LG. Meanwhile, our
                                 supply chain checks indicate that Novatek may have potentially secured Samsung’s (one of
                                 MStar’s customers) TV orders, but this appears to have largely come at the expense of
                                 Trident. MStar expects its overall TV market share to remain stable in 2011-2012.

                                 Our channel checks indicate that MStar is making progress in the handset market.
                                 Some of its major customers are ramping up volumes after testing its mid-range
                                 solutions for several months. We forecast MStar to ship 12 mn chipsets in 3Q11.
                                 MStar noted that handset shipment was up 30%-50% qoq in 2Q11, same as 1Q11, and
                                 expects the momentum to continue throughout 2011. According to the company, handset
                                 ICs contributed more than 5% of total revenue in 1H11 and is targeted to reach double digit
                                 revenue share for this year. MStar sampled TD IC with clients in 2Q11 and expects mass
                                 production in 4Q11 or early next year. The company also noted the expansion of its
                                 handset business in the emerging markets such as in India, where the number of
                                 customers increased significantly. Currently more than 50% of its handset shipment is for
                                 markets outside of China. MStar aims to sample its smartphone IC in 4Q11. But we believe
                                 that MStar’s handset cost is not competitive with that of Mediatek and so a fast handset
                                 volume ramp up could potentially have negative impact on margins. We lower our handset
                                 shipment forecasts from 45mn/120mn to 44mn/88mn in 2011E and 2012E, respectively.

                                 MStar announced another share buyback plan for 6mn shares till the end of July after it
                                 bought back 4mn during the last round from Jan 24 to Mar 18. It has completed 3.86mn out
                                 of the 6mn shares by June 24.

                                 We note that 40% of its shares were locked up immediately after its IPO in Dec 2010, of
                                 which 15% were unlocked 3 months post IPO in late March 2011 (among which 7%-8%
                                 were MStar employee shares). Around 10% is held by management and locked for two
                                 years. The rest 15% are held by institutional and other investors and would gradually
                                 unlocked through 3 months to 2 years post IPO. Upon its initial listing, employee shares
                                 accounted for about 50% of its total shares (10%-15% were locked up) and currently
                                 employees hold about 40% of the stake (10% is locked up). The company noted that it has
                                 not seen any significant shareholding changes yet.

                                 Despite our earnings cut, we maintain Buy on MStar based on its high ROE and healthy
                                 new product portfolio. We lower our 2011E-2013E EPS by 4%-13% to reflect slower-than-
                                 expected ramp up in handset segment. Consequently, we lower our 12-month TP by 14%
                                 to NT$250. Our TP is based on 14X NTM P/E, down from 16.5X as we estimate lower
                                 earnings growth CAGR (19% vs. previously 24%) for 2011E-2013E. Key risks include slower
                                 than expected volume ramp up in the handset market.


                                 Exhibit 6: We cut our MStar estimates due to its slower than expected ramp up in
                                 handsets segment
                                 MStar estimates revisions

                                  MStar estimates                      3Q2011E                      2011E                       2012E                        2013E
                                                                New         Old    Diff.     New        Old    Diff.     New        Old     Diff.     New        Old     Diff.
                                  Revenue (NT$ mn)             9,332      9,561   -2.4%    35,976    38,150   -5.7%    42,550    48,017   -11.4%    46,501    54,899   -15.3%
                                  Gross margin                 41.7%      41.6%   0.1%      41.6%    41.6%    0.0%      41.8%    41.5%     0.3%      42.0%    41.7%     0.3%
                                  Operating margin             19.8%      19.7%   0.1%      19.8%    19.9%    -0.1%     21.4%    21.1%     0.2%      21.7%    21.5%     0.2%
                                  Net margin                   19.7%      18.8%   0.9%      19.7%    19.1%    0.5%      21.1%    20.2%     1.0%      21.4%    20.5%     0.9%
                                  Diluted EPS (NT$)             3.81       3.73   2.3%      14.58     15.12   -3.5%     18.47     19.96    -7.4%     20.15    23.05    -12.6%
                                  Diluted share account (mn)    483        483    0.0%       485       483    0.5%       487       485     0.3%       495       488     1.4%


                                 Source: Goldman Sachs Research estimates.




Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research                                                                                                                                   6
July 19, 2011                                                                                                                                   Asia Pacific: Technology: Semiconductors




Exhibit 7: Comp table of our semi coverage

                                                      12 month    Market        GH calendar          Consensus calendar          GH/Consensus       GH/Consensus       GH/Consensus
                            Stock     Stock 7/14/11    Target      cap         EPS estimates            EPS estimates               P/E (X)         EV/EBITDA (X)        ROE (%)        P/B (X)
Company name                ticker    rating price      price    (US$bn)   2010 2011E 2012E        2010 2011E 2012E         2010 2011E 2012E            2011E       2010 2011E 2012E    2011E
TSMC (NT$)                  2330.TW    Buy*   70.7      90.0      63.57    6.24    5.15     6.12   6.24     6.13    6.62    11.3     13.7   11.5         6.5        30% 22% 24%           3.0
TSM (US$)                   TSM        Buy*   12.2      15.0      62.97    0.99    0.88     1.02    1.08    1.06     1.15   12.3     13.8   11.9         6.4        30% 22% 24%           3.0
UMC (NT$)                   2303.TW   Neutral 13.8      14.9      6.20     1.91    0.90     1.03    1.68    1.48     1.66   7.2      15.3   13.3         3.5        11%     5%     6%     0.9
UMC (US$)                   UMC        Sell   2.4        2.6      6.23     0.31    0.15     0.17    0.29    0.26     0.29   7.8      15.5   13.9         3.5        11%     5%     6%     0.9
SMIC (US$)                  SMI        NC     3.9       N.A.      2.15                             -0.17 0.17        0.24   N.M. 23.1       16.3         4.4        -4%     1%     2%     0.9
SMIC (HK$)                  0981.HK    NC     0.6       N.A.      2.22                             -0.03 0.03        0.04   N.M. 23.8       16.8         4.5        -4%     1%     2%     0.9
Average                                                                                                                      9.3     17.4    13.7        4.8        12% 10% 11%           1.6
Median                                                                                                                       9.3     15.3    13.3        4.4        11%     5%     6%     0.9

GS/GH Fabless Comp Sheet
                                                 12 month Market       GS/GH CY/FY         Consensus CY/FY             GS/GH/Consensus GS/GH/Consensus GS/GH/Consensus  GS/GH/Consensus
                           Stock   Stock 7/14/11 Target    cap        EPS estimates          EPS estimates                 P/E (X)       EV/EBITDA (X)      ROE (%)         P/B (X)
 Company name              ticker  rating price    price (US$bn) 2010 2011E 2012E 2010 2011E 2012E                   2010 2011E 2012E        2011E     2010 2011E 2012E      2011E
 MediaTek (NT$)            2454.TW Neutral 258.0 290.0     9.8   28.44 14.89 18.74 29.84 17.35 21.24                  9.1    17.3   13.8      11.2     28% 15% 18%            2.7
 MStar (NT$)               3697.TW Buy 157.0 250.0         2.6   13.47 14.58 18.47 14.63 16.54 19.87                 11.7    10.8    8.5       6.3     27% 22% 26%            2.3
 RealTek (NT$)             2379.TW   NC     49.7    N.A.   0.8    N.A.     N.A.    N.A. 4.03     4.65    6.18        12.3    10.7    8.0       4.2     11% 13% 16%            1.3
 Broadcom (US$)            BRCM     Buy     32.9   48.0   15.9    2.24     2.10    2.50 2.71     2.93    3.12        14.7    15.7   13.2      10.7     25% 19% 20%            2.4
 Marvell (US$)             MRVL    Neutral 14.7    18.0    9.0    0.78     1.46    1.40 1.65     1.71    1.82        18.7    10.1   10.5       6.7     12% 20% 16%            1.6
 Qualcomm(US$)             QCOM     Buy*    54.9   68.0   91.7   2.03      2.67    3.18 2.77     3.05    3.10        27.1    20.6   17.3      14.0     16% 19% 19%            3.5
 SPRD (US$)                SPRD      NC     15.7    N.A.   0.8    N.A.     N.A.    N.A. 1.23     1.63    1.63        12.8     9.6    9.6       8.6     42% 36% 36%            4.4
 Average                                                                                                             15.2    13.5   11.6       8.8     23% 21% 22%            2.6
 STDEV                                                                                                                6.0     4.3    3.3       3.4     11%    7%    7%        1.1
 Median                                                                                                              12.8    10.8   10.5       8.6     25% 19% 19%            2.4
*This stock is on our regional Conviction list
Note: For important disclosures, please go to http://www.gs.com/research/hedge.html.

Source: Datastream, company data, I/B/E/S, Goldman Sachs Research estimates.




Other disclosure
                                             Research written by Donald Lu on companies listed in Taiwan is written by him in his
                                             capacity as consultant to Goldman Sachs (Asia) L.L.C.. Any other research is written in his
                                             capacity as employee of Beijing Gao Hua Securities Company Limited.




Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research                                                                                                                                                          7
July 19, 2011                                                                                                       Asia Pacific: Technology: Semiconductors




Reg AC
I, Donald Lu, Ph.D, hereby certify that all of the views expressed in this report accurately reflect my personal views about the subject company or
companies and its or their securities. I also certify that no part of my compensation was, is or will be, directly or indirectly, related to the specific
recommendations or views expressed in this report.




Investment Profile
The Goldman Sachs Investment Profile provides investment context for a security by comparing key attributes of that security to its peer group and
market. The four key attributes depicted are: growth, returns, multiple and volatility. Growth, returns and multiple are indexed based on composites
of several methodologies to determine the stocks percentile ranking within the region's coverage universe.
The precise calculation of each metric may vary depending on the fiscal year, industry and region but the standard approach is as follows:
Growth is a composite of next year's estimate over current year's estimate, e.g. EPS, EBITDA, Revenue. Return is a year one prospective aggregate
of various return on capital measures, e.g. CROCI, ROACE, and ROE. Multiple is a composite of one-year forward valuation ratios, e.g. P/E, dividend
yield, EV/FCF, EV/EBITDA, EV/DACF, Price/Book. Volatility is measured as trailing twelve-month volatility adjusted for dividends.




Quantum
Quantum is Goldman Sachs' proprietary database providing access to detailed financial statement histories, forecasts and ratios. It can be used for
in-depth analysis of a single company, or to make comparisons between companies in different sectors and markets.




GS SUSTAIN
GS SUSTAIN is a global investment strategy aimed at long-term, long-only performance with a low turnover of ideas. The GS SUSTAIN focus list
includes leaders our analysis shows to be well positioned to deliver long term outperformance through sustained competitive advantage and
superior returns on capital relative to their global industry peers. Leaders are identified based on quantifiable analysis of three aspects of corporate
performance: cash return on cash invested, industry positioning and management quality (the effectiveness of companies' management of the
environmental, social and governance issues facing their industry).




Disclosure Appendix

Coverage group(s) of stocks by primary analyst(s)
Compendium report: please see disclosures at http://www.gs.com/research/hedge.html. Disclosures applicable to the companies included in this
compendium can be found in the latest relevant published research.

Company-specific regulatory disclosures
Compendium report: please see disclosures at http://www.gs.com/research/hedge.html. Disclosures applicable to the companies included in this
compendium can be found in the latest relevant published research.

Distribution of ratings/investment banking relationships
Goldman Sachs Investment Research global coverage universe
                            Rating Distribution                            Investment Banking Relationships
                    Buy             Hold              Sell                 Buy              Hold             Sell
  Global            32%            54%            14%                   52%          41%             37%
As of July 1, 2011, Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research had investment ratings on 3,167 equity securities. Goldman Sachs assigns stocks as
Buys and Sells on various regional Investment Lists; stocks not so assigned are deemed Neutral. Such assignments equate to Buy, Hold and Sell for
the purposes of the above disclosure required by NASD/NYSE rules. See 'Ratings, Coverage groups and views and related definitions' below.

Price target and rating history chart(s)
Compendium report: please see disclosures at http://www.gs.com/research/hedge.html. Disclosures applicable to the companies included in this
compendium can be found in the latest relevant published research.



Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research                                                                                                                    8
July 19, 2011                                                                                                    Asia Pacific: Technology: Semiconductors




Regulatory disclosures

Disclosures required by United States laws and regulations
See company-specific regulatory disclosures above for any of the following disclosures required as to companies referred to in this report: manager
or co-manager in a pending transaction; 1% or other ownership; compensation for certain services; types of client relationships; managed/co-
managed public offerings in prior periods; directorships; for equity securities, market making and/or specialist role. Goldman Sachs usually makes a
market in fixed income securities of issuers discussed in this report and usually deals as a principal in these securities.
The following are additional required disclosures: Ownership and material conflicts of interest: Goldman Sachs policy prohibits its analysts,
professionals reporting to analysts and members of their households from owning securities of any company in the analyst's area of coverage.
Analyst compensation: Analysts are paid in part based on the profitability of Goldman Sachs, which includes investment banking revenues. Analyst
as officer or director: Goldman Sachs policy prohibits its analysts, persons reporting to analysts or members of their households from serving as an
officer, director, advisory board member or employee of any company in the analyst's area of coverage. Non-U.S. Analysts: Non-U.S. analysts may
not be associated persons of Goldman Sachs & Co. and therefore may not be subject to NASD Rule 2711/NYSE Rules 472 restrictions on
communications with subject company, public appearances and trading securities held by the analysts.
Distribution of ratings: See the distribution of ratings disclosure above. Price chart: See the price chart, with changes of ratings and price targets in
prior periods, above, or, if electronic format or if with respect to multiple companies which are the subject of this report, on the Goldman Sachs
website at http://www.gs.com/research/hedge.html.

Additional disclosures required under the laws and regulations of jurisdictions other than the United States
The following disclosures are those required by the jurisdiction indicated, except to the extent already made above pursuant to United States laws
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Buy (B), Neutral (N), Sell (S) -Analysts recommend stocks as Buys or Sells for inclusion on various regional Investment Lists. Being assigned a Buy
or Sell on an Investment List is determined by a stock's return potential relative to its coverage group as described below. Any stock not assigned as
a Buy or a Sell on an Investment List is deemed Neutral. Each regional Investment Review Committee manages various regional Investment Lists to a
global guideline of 25%-35% of stocks as Buy and 10%-15% of stocks as Sell; however, the distribution of Buys and Sells in any particular coverage
group may vary as determined by the regional Investment Review Committee. Regional Conviction Buy and Sell lists represent investment
recommendations focused on either the size of the potential return or the likelihood of the realization of the return.
Return potential represents the price differential between the current share price and the price target expected during the time horizon associated
with the price target. Price targets are required for all covered stocks. The return potential, price target and associated time horizon are stated in each
report adding or reiterating an Investment List membership.
Coverage groups and views: A list of all stocks in each coverage group is available by primary analyst, stock and coverage group at
http://www.gs.com/research/hedge.html. The analyst assigns one of the following coverage views which represents the analyst's investment outlook
on the coverage group relative to the group's historical fundamentals and/or valuation. Attractive (A). The investment outlook over the following 12
months is favorable relative to the coverage group's historical fundamentals and/or valuation. Neutral (N). The investment outlook over the following
12 months is neutral relative to the coverage group's historical fundamentals and/or valuation. Cautious (C). The investment outlook over the
following 12 months is unfavorable relative to the coverage group's historical fundamentals and/or valuation.
Not Rated (NR). The investment rating and target price have been removed pursuant to Goldman Sachs policy when Goldman Sachs is acting in an
advisory capacity in a merger or strategic transaction involving this company and in certain other circumstances. Rating Suspended (RS). Goldman
Sachs Research has suspended the investment rating and price target for this stock, because there is not a sufficient fundamental basis for
determining, or there are legal, regulatory or policy constraints around publishing, an investment rating or target. The previous investment rating and
price target, if any, are no longer in effect for this stock and should not be relied upon. Coverage Suspended (CS). Goldman Sachs has suspended
coverage of this company. Not Covered (NC). Goldman Sachs does not cover this company. Not Available or Not Applicable (NA). The information
is not available for display or is not applicable. Not Meaningful (NM). The information is not meaningful and is therefore excluded.

Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research                                                                                                                 9
July 19, 2011                                                                                                     Asia Pacific: Technology: Semiconductors




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United Kingdom and European Union.
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written consent of The Goldman Sachs Group, Inc.




Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research                                                                                                                  10

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半導體0719

  • 1. July 19, 2011 Asia Pacific: Technology: Semiconductors Equity Research Another inventory correction: 3Q down, 4Q up; Buy TSMC (on CL) 3Q outlook: Wafer -10% qoq, but packaging and semi up qoq OUR ASIA-PAC SEMI COVERAGE We now estimate TSMC/UMC revenues to decline 6.5%/12% qoq in 3Q11, due to the recent order cuts across nearly all applications. Further, semi packaging Upside/downside Stock & Ticker Rating 12m TP Price potential orders have also weakened, but shipment is still tracking up 5% qoq in 3Q, TSMC (2330.TW) Buy* NT$90 NT$70.7 27.3% TSMC ADS (TSM) Buy* US$15 US$12.2 23.0% consistent with semi industry leader Fairchild’s 3Q guidance. For Mediatek and UMC (2303.TW) Neutral NT$14.9 NT$13.8 8.0% UMC ADS (UMC) Sell US$2.6 US$2.4 8.3% MStar, we expect rev to increase 12%-15% qoq with stable margins in 3Q11, Mediatek (2454.TW) Neutral NT$290 NT$258 12.4% MStar (3697.TW) Buy NT$250 NT$157 59.2% partially due to handset inventory restocking among Chinese handset makers. Meanwhile, our Asia-Pacific tech hardware team estimates about 15% qoq Note: *denotes stock is on our regional Conviction List. Stock prices are as of the market close of July 14, 2011. increase in most PC OEMs orders in 3Q11. In terms of visibility, PC OEM/semi packaging companies expect improving clarity in Aug/Sept. We revise our For important disclosures, please go to http://www.gs.com/research/hedge.html. 2011E-2013E EPS for our coverage by -27.3% to +1.8% to reflect inventory Source: Datastream, Gao Hua Securities Research correction, competition. Consequently, we lower our 12-m TPs by up to -14%. estimates. UPCOMING EVENTS Inventory correction to end in 3Q; demand to pick up in 4Q We attribute the inventory correction in 3Q11 to overstocking post the Japan CY2Q11 result reporting schedule Company Name Ticker Date earthquake, soft demand, and macro concerns leading to minimal inventory. TSMC 2330.TW Thursday, July 28 UMC 2303.TW Wednesday, August 3 On a positive note, downstream is trending much better than upstream— Mediatek 2454.TW Wednesday, July 27 indicating effective inventory clearing—Chinese handset makers have started MStar 3697.TW Early August to re-stock; Nokia component order should recover in late 3Q11 based on our Source: Company data supply chain checks; and CNY is early in 2012 (late January). Maintain Buy (on CL) on TSMC We note that TSMC outperformed when its utilization was low (as seen since late-April, TSMC +2% (incl. cash div) vs. TAIEX -6%). We expect TSMC’s capex to decrease from US$7.8 bn/US$6.5 bn to US$6.9 bn/US$6 bn in 2011E/2012E given the inventory correction, potentially alleviating market concerns over excess foundry capacity. We think TSMC’s 28 nm capacity is on track to reach 10K WPM by end of 2011 for the next wave of mobile computing and arrival of ARM-CPU. In our view, TSMC’s upcoming 3Q guidance should help remove uncertainty over the demand outlook. Mediatek: Muted seasonal growth in 3Q11; maintain Neutral Our supply chain checks indicate healthy demand for 6252 (low-cost SOC) and 6236 (EDGE smart feature phone), while 6253 is being potentially phased out. We expect Mediatek’s rev to increase 14% qoq in 3Q11 due to seasonality and a lacklustre 2Q. Mediatek has recently cut 6252/6253 prices, but its overall ASP, margin should remain stable due to increasing share of 6236 in the mix. Donald Lu, Ph.D Goldman Sachs does and seeks to do business with +86(10)6627-3123 donald.lu@ghsl.cn Beijing Gao Hua Securities Company Limited Lingling Hu companies covered in its research reports. As a result, +86(10)6627-3520 lingling.hu@ghsl.cn Beijing Gao Hua Securities Company Limited investors should be aware that the firm may have a conflict of Evan Xu interest that could affect the objectivity of this report. Investors +86(10)6627-3176 evan.xu@ghsl.cn Beijing Gao Hua Securities Company Limited should consider this report as only a single factor in making their investment decision. For Reg AC see the end of the text. For other important disclosures, see the Disclosure Appendix, or go to www.gs.com/research/hedge.html. Analysts employed by non-US affiliates are not registered/qualified as research analysts with FINRA in the U.S. The Goldman Sachs Group, Inc. Global Investment Research
  • 2. July 19, 2011 Asia Pacific: Technology: Semiconductors TSMC (2330.TW, Buy, on Conviction List) TSMC reported in-line 2Q11 sales of NT$110.5 bn (+4.9% qoq, +5.3% yoy), nearly reaching the high end of its guidance of NT$109-$111 bn. We expect TSMC to meet its margin guidance in 2Q11, as well. We estimate TSMC’s rev to decline 6.5% qoq in 3Q11 due to recent order cut across nearly all applications based on our industry checks. Therefore, we now forecast TSMC’s utilization rate to decline from 100% in 1Q11 to 98%/87% in 2Q11/3Q11, respectively. We attribute the 3Q weakness to inventory clearing after the restocking post the Japan earthquake, softening demand especially in Europe, and concerns over deteriorating economic growth leading to minimal inventory. In 3Q11, we expect foundry rev correction of 10% qoq vs. packaging (up 5% qoq), Mediatek and MStar (up 10%+ qoq), and most PC OEM’s current PC orders (up 15%-20% qoq). We believe this inventory correction is a typical pattern in the semiconductor supply chain. We still expect the correction to end mostly in 3Q11 and foundry wafer shipment to increase qoq in 4Q11 despite a weaker-than-expected 3Q11 for five reasons: (1) Most Chinese handset makers have cleared their excess inventory in 2Q11 so that their demand should increase almost seasonally in 3Q and 4Q11; (2) Nokia’s inventory correction should complete mostly in 3Q11 based on our supply chain checks and Nokia demand should normalize in 4Q11; (3) potential iPhone 5 introduction may stimulate iPhone replacement demand; (4) Our Asia-Pacific tech hardware team has recently indicated that PC ODM shipment is above expectations in 2Q11 and most PC OEMs (except Acer) expect 15%-20% qoq growth in PC orders in 3Q11; and (5) wafer inventory clearing seems decisive in 3Q11 on the aforementioned pattern of bifurcation of 3Q growth between upstream and downstream companies. We expect TSMC capex to decrease from US$7.8 bn/US$6.5 bn to US$6.9 bn/US$6 bn in 2011E/2012E, respectively given the inventory correction, alleviating some market concerns of foundry excess capacity. We note that GlobalFoundries (GF) has recently had a senior management restructuring partially due to weak execution in R&D, 32 nm yield, and 28 nm qualification. In addition, SMIC announced on July 18 that its COO has been promoted as SMIC’s chairman, Executive Director and acting CEO with effect from July 15. In our view, these recent management issues at GF and SMIC may result in reducing the effectiveness of capex, potentially alleviating concerns over excess supply in the near term. Furthermore, our new capex assumptions indicate TSMC’s depreciation increasing 30% in 2011E (which could be a cause for market concern) would decline to 5.5% in 2012E. We view 28nm dominance, mobile computing for smartphone and tablet, and ARM-based CPU for PC as TSMC’s major growth drivers in 2012E-2013E. We think TSMC’s 28nm capacity is on track to reach 10K WPM by end of 2011 for the next wave of mobile computing and arrival of ARM-CPU. In our view, GF or Samsung not having any significant foundry design-wins at 28nm may be partially due to their choice of gate-first technology. We expect 28nm to be TSMC’s fastest ramping node and believe that 28nm should generate healthier returns than 40nm node. Historically, we note that TSMC’s stock troughed at the beginning of each inventory correction and outperformed when its utilization was low (since late April, TSMC +2% (incl. cash div of NT$3 per share) vs. TAIEX -6%). The stock outperformed TAIEX from September 2008 to March 2009 when utilization rate had troughed (see Exhibit 2). In our view, TSMC’s upcoming 3Q guidance should help remove the uncertainty over the demand outlook. We revised our 2011E-2013E EPS by -6.3% to +1.8% to reflect inventory correction. Consequently, we lower our 12-month P/E-based TP for TSMC/ADS by 1% to NT$90/US$15. Key risks include USD depreciation. Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research 2
  • 3. July 19, 2011 Asia Pacific: Technology: Semiconductors Exhibit 1: We revise down our EPS for 3Q11E by 14.6% due to worse-than-expected inventory correction TSMC estimates revisions TSMC 3Q2011E 2011E 2012E 2013E New Old Diff. New Old Diff. New Old Diff. New Old Diff. Revenue (NT$ mn) 103,266 112,794 -8.4% 430,781 449,011 -4.1% 499,513 529,289 -5.6% 560,010 573,321 -2.3% Gross margin (%) 43.0% 45.0% -197bps 45.9% 46.6% -67bps 47.4% 46.4% 99bps 45.6% 43.7% 188bps Operating margin (%) 30.2% 33.3% -305bps 33.8% 35.0% -116bps 35.7% 35.4% 33bps 34.1% 32.5% 161bps Net margin (%) 28.1% 30.1% -204bps 31.0% 31.7% -74bps 31.8% 31.4% 34bps 30.1% 28.9% 121bps EPS (NT$)-local $1.12 1.31 -14.6% 5.15 5.49 -6.3% 6.12 6.42 -4.6% $6.50 6.38 1.8% Source: Goldman Sachs Research estimates. Exhibit 2: We note that TSMC stock has generally troughed at the beginning of the first quarter of declining utilization TSMC stock price vs. utilization rate 120% 90 TSMC Quarterly Utilization Rate (LHS) TSMC Stock Price (RHS) 110% 80 100% 70 90% 60 Close Price (NT$) Utilization rate 80% 50 70% 40 60% 30 50% 20 40% 30% 10 20% 0 Jan-94 Nov-94 Jan-97 May-98 Sep-99 Jun-01 Jan-04 May-05 Sep-06 Feb-07 Jan-08 Nov-08 May-09 Jun-94 Aug-96 Jul-97 Feb-00 Jan-01 Nov-01 Aug-03 Jul-04 Aug-07 Jun-08 Dec-11 Mar-96 Dec-97 Jul-00 Mar-03 Dec-04 Aug-10 Feb-11 Apr-95 Oct-95 Oct-98 Apr-99 Apr-02 Oct-02 Oct-05 Apr-06 Oct-09 Mar-10 Jul-11 Source: Datastream, company data, Goldman Sachs Research estimates. Exhibit 3: We also note that TSMC’s stock outperformed when its utilization was low and underperformed when it reached 100% TSMC relative performance vs. utilization rate 120% 4.5 TSMC Quarterly Utilization Rate (LHS) TSMC relative performance to TWSE index (RHS) 110% 4.0 100% 3.5 90% Relative performance 3.0 Utilization rate 80% 2.5 70% 2.0 60% 1.5 50% 1.0 40% 30% 0.5 20% 0.0 Nov-94 Nov-08 Jan-94 Aug-96 Jan-97 May-98 Sep-99 Jun-01 Aug-03 Jan-04 May-05 Sep-06 Feb-07 Aug-07 Jan-08 May-09 Nov-01 Jun-94 Jul-97 Feb-00 Jan-01 Jul-04 Jun-08 Dec-11 Mar-96 Dec-97 Jul-00 Mar-03 Dec-04 Aug-10 Feb-11 Apr-95 Oct-95 Oct-98 Apr-99 Apr-02 Oct-02 Oct-05 Apr-06 Oct-09 Mar-10 Jul-11 Source: Datastream, company data, Goldman Sachs Research estimates. Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research 3
  • 4. July 19, 2011 Asia Pacific: Technology: Semiconductors UMC (2303.TW, Neutral) UMC reported 2Q11 parent sales of NT$28.15 bn (+0.1% qoq, -5.4% yoy), slightly above GS forecast of NT$27.67 bn (-1.6% qoq, -7% yoy) and met company’s guidance of a flattish quarter during the 1Q11 earnings release. We expect UMC’s 2Q GPM to be largely in line with guidance at low-mid 20% and utilization rate at around 85% with 8” slightly higher than 12”. UMC is holding a conservative view about the 3Q11 outlook and has indicated that growth in 3Q is not likely to match the seasonal level due to macro slowdown concerns. The company noted that overall demand has not been strong since 2Q—relatively stable for STB, Digital TV, and handset components, but ODD is showing slowdown during the past few weeks. Communication (Baseband, Broadband, wireless infrastructure) demand is weak as well. We estimate UMC’s 3Q revenue to decline 12% qoq, partially due to its large exposure to Nokia. The company indicated that ASP for 65nm and above has been under pressure as the customers have more bargain power, while ASP of 40nm is relatively stable. So far, UMC has 45 tape-outs in 40nm, 22 in production and 16 customers. The company maintains its guidance that 40nm would account for 10% of total revenue in 2H11. Besides, UMC expects pilot production for one client in 28nm in 3Q11. We estimate that UMC would recognize higher non-operating income in 3Q due to the dividend income from its non-core holdings in Farady, SiS, and Novatek, etc. We are also reducing our capex estimates from US$1.8 bn/US$1.2 bn to US$1.5 bn/US$800 mn at UMC in 2011E and 2012E, respectively given the inventory correction. UMC has higher leverage than TSMC and has generally lost market share to TSMC when the industry saw a correction in inventory. We expect UMC’s stock to be lacklustre as the demand outlook remains uncertain and would await their 3Q guidance in late July/early August. In near term, we think the stock may see some weakness during the earnings season. We lower our 2011E-2013E EPS by 2%-27% to reflect inventory correction and market share loss. Consequently, we lower our 12-month P/B-based TP by 1% to NT$14.9. Risks: Upside - strong IDM outsourcing; downside – market share loss in 40nm and 28nm. Exhibit 4: We cut our estimates to reflect the demand and ASP pressures UMC estimates revisions UMC 3Q2011E 2011E 2012E 2013E New Old Diff. New Old Diff. New Old Diff. New Old Diff. Revenue (NT$ mn) 24,688 28,675 -13.9% 107,789 115,635 -6.8% 119,687 131,572 -9.0% 128,310 136,316 -5.9% Gross margin (%) 14.4% 22.3% -798bps 20.9% 24.6% -371bps 21.7% 23.8% -207bps 21.7% 21.7% 0bps Net margin (%) 8.6% 12.9% -430bps 10.4% 13.3% -293bps 10.7% 12.5% -179bps 10.6% 10.2% 44bps EPS (NT$)-local 0.17 0.30 -42.6% 0.90 1.23 -27.3% 1.03 1.33 -22.1% 1.10 1.12 -2.0% Wafer Shipment (K unit 1,004 1,131 -11.2% 4,339 4,582 -5.3% 4,812 5,239 -8.1% 5,319 5,609 -5.2% Utilization rate 74.7% 84.2% -946bps 82.4% 86.9% -455bps 86.8% 93.4% -654bps 91.9% 95.1% -324bps Source: Goldman Sachs Research estimates. Mediatek (2454.TW, Neutral) Mediatek released June quarter sales of NT$20.96 bn (+5.5% qoq, -30% yoy), in line with our estimate of NT$20.8 bn (+4.7% qoq, -30.6% yoy), at the low end of its guidance of NT$20.9bn-22.3bn. Our supply chain checks indicate that demand for 6252 (low cost SOC) and 6236 (EDGE smart feature phone solution) has been healthy, while 6253 is being Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research 4
  • 5. July 19, 2011 Asia Pacific: Technology: Semiconductors potentially phased out. We believe demand should improve significantly qoq in 3Q11 due to seasonal demand and a low base in 2Q11 when the industry had liquidated inventory and went through restructuring. Mediatek also recently cut prices on 6252 and 6253 to compete with Spreadtrum and MStar. But, we expect its overall handset ASP and margins to remain stable due to increasing higher-ASP 6235/6236 in the product mix. Mediatek indicated that the mix of 6235/6236 should increase from 15% in 1Q11 to 20% in 2Q11. We forecast Mediatek 3Q rev to increase 14% qoq in 3Q11. Mediatek sampled the second smartphone platform (HSUPA, 3.75G, 650MHz processor) with several clients in the second quarter and indicated that the customers may launch products in the near term at the earliest. This second platform is based on Android 2.3 OS. The company noted that it has shipped less than 2 mn smartphone so far in 2011, but maintained its full year target of 10 mn smartphones, implying a back-end loaded year. Mediatek also expects to ship 10mn WCDMA feature phones and 12mn TD chips. Besides, the company is positive on the TV SOC market and expects it to be the highest growth segment this year with a stable ASP outlook. On July 13, Mediatek announced a new share buyback program of 8mn shares (0.73% of its outstanding shares) at the price range of NT$247-371 within two months till Sep 13. Mediatek shares have contracted significantly post its cash div ex-date. We believe that its 3Q guidance and share buyback should help stabilize the share price near-term. However, the growth outlook of its 3G smartphone remains challenging due to Qualcomm’s intensifying competition. Unless its smart feature phone shipment could reach 30%-40% of product mix in the next 12 months, trading at 19X NTM consensus P/E, Mediatek’s valuation appear to lackluster (sector at 13.5X 2011E P/E), in our view. We maintain our Neutral rating. We lower our 2011E-2013E EPS by 2%-7% to reflect increasing competition. Consequently, we lower our 12-month P/E-based TP by 5% to NT$290. Key Risks: upside – fast smartphone adoption in emerging countries; downside – intensifying 2G competition. Exhibit 5: We lower our estimates due to weak demand in low-end feature phones and ASP pressure due to competition Mediatek estimates revisions Mediatek estimates 3Q2011E 2011E 2012E 2013E (GAAP) New Old Diff. New Old Diff. New Old Diff. New Old Diff. Revenue (NT$ mn) 23,900 24,863 -3.9% 89,221 90,680 -1.6% 102,491 106,641 -3.9% 106,448 110,740 -3.9% Gross margin (%) 46.8% 47.1% -102bps 46.6% 47.1% -50bps 47.4% 48.9% -146bps 47.4% 48.9% -149bps Operating margin (%) 19.3% 19.6% -340bps 17.8% 18.2% -45bps 20.7% 21.9% -124bps 21.3% 22.6% -127bps Net margin (%) 19.3% 19.6% -321bps 18.1% 18.5% -42bps 19.8% 21.0% -113bps 20.3% 21.5% -114bps EPS (NT$) 4.25 4.41 -3.8% 14.89 15.24 -2.3% 18.74 20.12 -6.9% 19.95 21.22 -6.0% Source: Goldman Sachs Research estimates. MStar (3697.TW, Buy) MStar’s 2Q11 sales stood at NT$8.35 bn (+1.8% qoq, +8.9% yoy), in line with our estimate of NT$8.3bn (+1% qoq, +8% yoy), reaching the mid range of its revenue guidance of NT$8.07bn-8.55bn. MStar indicated that its orders have been within expectations and stable in the past two weeks. The company indicated that 3Q is normally a seasonally high growth quarter, and expects to outperform the industry growth average with stable margins. We note that the European TV market has been muted and expect MStar’s 3Q rev to increase 12% qoq vs up 23% qoq in 3Q10. Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research 5
  • 6. July 19, 2011 Asia Pacific: Technology: Semiconductors For the TV business, MStar indicated that its market share has increased among Japanese brands, and remained stable at domestic Chinese TV brands and LG. Meanwhile, our supply chain checks indicate that Novatek may have potentially secured Samsung’s (one of MStar’s customers) TV orders, but this appears to have largely come at the expense of Trident. MStar expects its overall TV market share to remain stable in 2011-2012. Our channel checks indicate that MStar is making progress in the handset market. Some of its major customers are ramping up volumes after testing its mid-range solutions for several months. We forecast MStar to ship 12 mn chipsets in 3Q11. MStar noted that handset shipment was up 30%-50% qoq in 2Q11, same as 1Q11, and expects the momentum to continue throughout 2011. According to the company, handset ICs contributed more than 5% of total revenue in 1H11 and is targeted to reach double digit revenue share for this year. MStar sampled TD IC with clients in 2Q11 and expects mass production in 4Q11 or early next year. The company also noted the expansion of its handset business in the emerging markets such as in India, where the number of customers increased significantly. Currently more than 50% of its handset shipment is for markets outside of China. MStar aims to sample its smartphone IC in 4Q11. But we believe that MStar’s handset cost is not competitive with that of Mediatek and so a fast handset volume ramp up could potentially have negative impact on margins. We lower our handset shipment forecasts from 45mn/120mn to 44mn/88mn in 2011E and 2012E, respectively. MStar announced another share buyback plan for 6mn shares till the end of July after it bought back 4mn during the last round from Jan 24 to Mar 18. It has completed 3.86mn out of the 6mn shares by June 24. We note that 40% of its shares were locked up immediately after its IPO in Dec 2010, of which 15% were unlocked 3 months post IPO in late March 2011 (among which 7%-8% were MStar employee shares). Around 10% is held by management and locked for two years. The rest 15% are held by institutional and other investors and would gradually unlocked through 3 months to 2 years post IPO. Upon its initial listing, employee shares accounted for about 50% of its total shares (10%-15% were locked up) and currently employees hold about 40% of the stake (10% is locked up). The company noted that it has not seen any significant shareholding changes yet. Despite our earnings cut, we maintain Buy on MStar based on its high ROE and healthy new product portfolio. We lower our 2011E-2013E EPS by 4%-13% to reflect slower-than- expected ramp up in handset segment. Consequently, we lower our 12-month TP by 14% to NT$250. Our TP is based on 14X NTM P/E, down from 16.5X as we estimate lower earnings growth CAGR (19% vs. previously 24%) for 2011E-2013E. Key risks include slower than expected volume ramp up in the handset market. Exhibit 6: We cut our MStar estimates due to its slower than expected ramp up in handsets segment MStar estimates revisions MStar estimates 3Q2011E 2011E 2012E 2013E New Old Diff. New Old Diff. New Old Diff. New Old Diff. Revenue (NT$ mn) 9,332 9,561 -2.4% 35,976 38,150 -5.7% 42,550 48,017 -11.4% 46,501 54,899 -15.3% Gross margin 41.7% 41.6% 0.1% 41.6% 41.6% 0.0% 41.8% 41.5% 0.3% 42.0% 41.7% 0.3% Operating margin 19.8% 19.7% 0.1% 19.8% 19.9% -0.1% 21.4% 21.1% 0.2% 21.7% 21.5% 0.2% Net margin 19.7% 18.8% 0.9% 19.7% 19.1% 0.5% 21.1% 20.2% 1.0% 21.4% 20.5% 0.9% Diluted EPS (NT$) 3.81 3.73 2.3% 14.58 15.12 -3.5% 18.47 19.96 -7.4% 20.15 23.05 -12.6% Diluted share account (mn) 483 483 0.0% 485 483 0.5% 487 485 0.3% 495 488 1.4% Source: Goldman Sachs Research estimates. Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research 6
  • 7. July 19, 2011 Asia Pacific: Technology: Semiconductors Exhibit 7: Comp table of our semi coverage 12 month Market GH calendar Consensus calendar GH/Consensus GH/Consensus GH/Consensus Stock Stock 7/14/11 Target cap EPS estimates EPS estimates P/E (X) EV/EBITDA (X) ROE (%) P/B (X) Company name ticker rating price price (US$bn) 2010 2011E 2012E 2010 2011E 2012E 2010 2011E 2012E 2011E 2010 2011E 2012E 2011E TSMC (NT$) 2330.TW Buy* 70.7 90.0 63.57 6.24 5.15 6.12 6.24 6.13 6.62 11.3 13.7 11.5 6.5 30% 22% 24% 3.0 TSM (US$) TSM Buy* 12.2 15.0 62.97 0.99 0.88 1.02 1.08 1.06 1.15 12.3 13.8 11.9 6.4 30% 22% 24% 3.0 UMC (NT$) 2303.TW Neutral 13.8 14.9 6.20 1.91 0.90 1.03 1.68 1.48 1.66 7.2 15.3 13.3 3.5 11% 5% 6% 0.9 UMC (US$) UMC Sell 2.4 2.6 6.23 0.31 0.15 0.17 0.29 0.26 0.29 7.8 15.5 13.9 3.5 11% 5% 6% 0.9 SMIC (US$) SMI NC 3.9 N.A. 2.15 -0.17 0.17 0.24 N.M. 23.1 16.3 4.4 -4% 1% 2% 0.9 SMIC (HK$) 0981.HK NC 0.6 N.A. 2.22 -0.03 0.03 0.04 N.M. 23.8 16.8 4.5 -4% 1% 2% 0.9 Average 9.3 17.4 13.7 4.8 12% 10% 11% 1.6 Median 9.3 15.3 13.3 4.4 11% 5% 6% 0.9 GS/GH Fabless Comp Sheet 12 month Market GS/GH CY/FY Consensus CY/FY GS/GH/Consensus GS/GH/Consensus GS/GH/Consensus GS/GH/Consensus Stock Stock 7/14/11 Target cap EPS estimates EPS estimates P/E (X) EV/EBITDA (X) ROE (%) P/B (X) Company name ticker rating price price (US$bn) 2010 2011E 2012E 2010 2011E 2012E 2010 2011E 2012E 2011E 2010 2011E 2012E 2011E MediaTek (NT$) 2454.TW Neutral 258.0 290.0 9.8 28.44 14.89 18.74 29.84 17.35 21.24 9.1 17.3 13.8 11.2 28% 15% 18% 2.7 MStar (NT$) 3697.TW Buy 157.0 250.0 2.6 13.47 14.58 18.47 14.63 16.54 19.87 11.7 10.8 8.5 6.3 27% 22% 26% 2.3 RealTek (NT$) 2379.TW NC 49.7 N.A. 0.8 N.A. N.A. N.A. 4.03 4.65 6.18 12.3 10.7 8.0 4.2 11% 13% 16% 1.3 Broadcom (US$) BRCM Buy 32.9 48.0 15.9 2.24 2.10 2.50 2.71 2.93 3.12 14.7 15.7 13.2 10.7 25% 19% 20% 2.4 Marvell (US$) MRVL Neutral 14.7 18.0 9.0 0.78 1.46 1.40 1.65 1.71 1.82 18.7 10.1 10.5 6.7 12% 20% 16% 1.6 Qualcomm(US$) QCOM Buy* 54.9 68.0 91.7 2.03 2.67 3.18 2.77 3.05 3.10 27.1 20.6 17.3 14.0 16% 19% 19% 3.5 SPRD (US$) SPRD NC 15.7 N.A. 0.8 N.A. N.A. N.A. 1.23 1.63 1.63 12.8 9.6 9.6 8.6 42% 36% 36% 4.4 Average 15.2 13.5 11.6 8.8 23% 21% 22% 2.6 STDEV 6.0 4.3 3.3 3.4 11% 7% 7% 1.1 Median 12.8 10.8 10.5 8.6 25% 19% 19% 2.4 *This stock is on our regional Conviction list Note: For important disclosures, please go to http://www.gs.com/research/hedge.html. Source: Datastream, company data, I/B/E/S, Goldman Sachs Research estimates. Other disclosure Research written by Donald Lu on companies listed in Taiwan is written by him in his capacity as consultant to Goldman Sachs (Asia) L.L.C.. Any other research is written in his capacity as employee of Beijing Gao Hua Securities Company Limited. Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research 7
  • 8. July 19, 2011 Asia Pacific: Technology: Semiconductors Reg AC I, Donald Lu, Ph.D, hereby certify that all of the views expressed in this report accurately reflect my personal views about the subject company or companies and its or their securities. I also certify that no part of my compensation was, is or will be, directly or indirectly, related to the specific recommendations or views expressed in this report. Investment Profile The Goldman Sachs Investment Profile provides investment context for a security by comparing key attributes of that security to its peer group and market. The four key attributes depicted are: growth, returns, multiple and volatility. Growth, returns and multiple are indexed based on composites of several methodologies to determine the stocks percentile ranking within the region's coverage universe. The precise calculation of each metric may vary depending on the fiscal year, industry and region but the standard approach is as follows: Growth is a composite of next year's estimate over current year's estimate, e.g. EPS, EBITDA, Revenue. Return is a year one prospective aggregate of various return on capital measures, e.g. CROCI, ROACE, and ROE. Multiple is a composite of one-year forward valuation ratios, e.g. P/E, dividend yield, EV/FCF, EV/EBITDA, EV/DACF, Price/Book. Volatility is measured as trailing twelve-month volatility adjusted for dividends. Quantum Quantum is Goldman Sachs' proprietary database providing access to detailed financial statement histories, forecasts and ratios. It can be used for in-depth analysis of a single company, or to make comparisons between companies in different sectors and markets. GS SUSTAIN GS SUSTAIN is a global investment strategy aimed at long-term, long-only performance with a low turnover of ideas. The GS SUSTAIN focus list includes leaders our analysis shows to be well positioned to deliver long term outperformance through sustained competitive advantage and superior returns on capital relative to their global industry peers. Leaders are identified based on quantifiable analysis of three aspects of corporate performance: cash return on cash invested, industry positioning and management quality (the effectiveness of companies' management of the environmental, social and governance issues facing their industry). Disclosure Appendix Coverage group(s) of stocks by primary analyst(s) Compendium report: please see disclosures at http://www.gs.com/research/hedge.html. Disclosures applicable to the companies included in this compendium can be found in the latest relevant published research. Company-specific regulatory disclosures Compendium report: please see disclosures at http://www.gs.com/research/hedge.html. Disclosures applicable to the companies included in this compendium can be found in the latest relevant published research. Distribution of ratings/investment banking relationships Goldman Sachs Investment Research global coverage universe Rating Distribution Investment Banking Relationships Buy Hold Sell Buy Hold Sell Global 32% 54% 14% 52% 41% 37% As of July 1, 2011, Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research had investment ratings on 3,167 equity securities. Goldman Sachs assigns stocks as Buys and Sells on various regional Investment Lists; stocks not so assigned are deemed Neutral. Such assignments equate to Buy, Hold and Sell for the purposes of the above disclosure required by NASD/NYSE rules. See 'Ratings, Coverage groups and views and related definitions' below. Price target and rating history chart(s) Compendium report: please see disclosures at http://www.gs.com/research/hedge.html. Disclosures applicable to the companies included in this compendium can be found in the latest relevant published research. Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research 8
  • 9. July 19, 2011 Asia Pacific: Technology: Semiconductors Regulatory disclosures Disclosures required by United States laws and regulations See company-specific regulatory disclosures above for any of the following disclosures required as to companies referred to in this report: manager or co-manager in a pending transaction; 1% or other ownership; compensation for certain services; types of client relationships; managed/co- managed public offerings in prior periods; directorships; for equity securities, market making and/or specialist role. Goldman Sachs usually makes a market in fixed income securities of issuers discussed in this report and usually deals as a principal in these securities. The following are additional required disclosures: Ownership and material conflicts of interest: Goldman Sachs policy prohibits its analysts, professionals reporting to analysts and members of their households from owning securities of any company in the analyst's area of coverage. 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