C3 Study Slides - MAT 151

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Active Learning Lecture Slides For use with Classroom Response Systems Elementary Statistics Eleventh Edition and the Triola Statistics Series by Mario F. Triola Chapter 3: Statistics for Describing, Exploring, and Comparing Data

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Question 1. 1. You are given only three quarterly seasonal indices and quarterly seasonally adjusted data for the entire year. What is the raw data value for Q4? Raw data is not adjusted for seasonality. Quarter Seasonal Index Seasonally Adjusted Data Q1 .80 295 Q2 .85 299 Q3 1.15 270 Q4 --- 271 (Points : 3) 325 225 252 271 Question 2. 2. One model of exponential smoothing will provide almost the same forecast as a liner trend method. What are linear trend intercept and slope counterparts for exponential smoothing? (Points : 3) Alpha and Delta Delta and Gamma Alpha and Gamma Std Dev and Mean Question 3. 3. Why is the residual mean value important to a forecaster? (Points : 3) Large mean values indicate nonautoregressiveness. Small mean values indicate the total amount of error is small. Large absolute mean values indicate estimate bias. Large mean values indicate the standard error of the model is small. Question 4. 4. When performing correlation analysis what is the null hypothesis? What measure in Minitab is used to test it and to be 95% confident in the significance of correlation coefficient. (Points : 3) Ho: r = .05 p < .5 Ho: r = 1 p =.05 Ho: r ≠ 0 p≤.05 Ho: r = 0 p≤.05 Question 5. 5. In decomposition what does the cycle factor (CF) of .80 represent for a monthly forecast estimate of a Y variable? (Points : 3) The estimated value is 80% of the average monthly seasonal estimate. The estimate is .80 of the forecasted Y trend value. The estimated value is .80 of the historical average CMA values. The estimated value has 20% more variation than the average historical Y data values. Question 6. 6. A Burger King franchise owner notes that the sales per store has fallen below the stated national Burger King outlet average of $1,258,000. He asserts a change has occurred that reduced the fast food eating habits of Americans. What is his hypothesis (H1) and what type of test for significance must be applied? (Points : 3) H1: u ≥ $1.258,000 A one-tailed t-test to the left. H1: u = $1.258,000 A two-tailed t-test. H1: u < $1.258,000 A one-tailed t-test to the left. H1: p < $1.258,000 A one-tailed test to the right. Question 7. 7. The CEO of Home Depot wants to see if city size has any relationship to the current profit margins of the company stores. What data type will he likely use to determine this? (Points : 3) Time series data of profits by store. Recent 10 year sample of profits by stores. Recent cross section of store profits by city. Trend of a random sample of store profits over time. Question 8. 8. Sometimes forecasters get lazy or forgetful and do not.

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1. You are given only three quarterly seasonal indices and quarterly seasonally adjusted data for the entire year. What is the raw data value for Q4? Raw data is not adjusted for seasonality. Quarter Seasonal Index Seasonally Adjusted Data Q1 .80 295 Q2 .85 299 Q3 1.15 270 Q4 --- 271 (Points : 3) 325 225 252 271 Question 2. 2. One model of exponential smoothing will provide almost the same forecast as a liner trend method. What are linear trend intercept and slope counterparts for exponential smoothing? (Points : 3) Alpha and Delta Delta and Gamma Alpha and Gamma Std Dev and Mean Question 3. 3. Why is the residual mean value important to a forecaster? (Points : 3) Large mean values indicate nonautoregressiveness. Small mean values indicate the total amount of error is small. Large absolute mean values indicate estimate bias. Large mean values indicate the standard error of the model is small. Question 4. 4. When performing correlation analysis what is the null hypothesis? What measure in Minitab is used to test it and to be 95% confident in the significance of correlation coefficient. (Points : 3) Ho: r = .05 p < .5 Ho: r = 1 p =.05 Ho: r ≠ 0 p≤.05 Ho: r = 0 p≤.05 Question 5. 5. In decomposition what does the cycle factor (CF) of .80 represent for a monthly forecast estimate of a Y variable? (Points : 3) The estimated value is 80% of the average monthly seasonal estimate. The estimate is .80 of the forecasted Y trend value. The estimated value is .80 of the historical average CMA values. The estimated value has 20% more variation than the average historical Y data values. Question 6. 6. A Burger King franchise owner notes that the sales per store has fallen below the stated national Burger King outlet average of $1,258,000. He asserts a change has occurred that reduced the fast food eating habits of Americans. What is his hypothesis (H1) and what type of test for significance must be applied? (Points : 3) H1: u ≥ $1.258,000 A one-tailed t-test to the left. H1: u = $1.258,000 A two-tailed t-test. H1: u < $1.258,000 A one-tailed t-test to the left. H1: p < $1.258,000 A one-tailed test to the right. Question 7. 7. The CEO of Home Depot wants to see if city size has any relationship to the current profit margins of the company stores. What data type will he likely use to determine this? (Points : 3) Time series data of profits by store. Recent 10 year sample of profits by stores. Recent cross section of store profits by city. Trend of a random sample of store profits over time. Question 8. 8. Sometimes forecasters get lazy or forgetful and do not check the significance of XY data correlations ...

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C3 Study Slides - MAT 151

1. Active Learning Lecture Slides For use with Classroom Response Systems Elementary Statistics Eleventh Edition and the Triola Statistics Series by Mario F. Triola Chapter 3: Statistics for Describing, Exploring, and Comparing Data

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