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15 April 2008



Indian Premier League (IPL)

Participate in a media property of the future – India Cements Ltd




                                        Yasmin Shah (+91-22-6639 9175)
                                          yasmin.shah@alchemyonline.com

                                      Dhaval Parekh (+91-22-6639 9128)
                                         dhaval.parekh@alchemyonline.com


                                      Nitesh Momaya(+91-22-6639 9181)
                                        nitesh.momaya@alchemyonline.com


                                                                           1
Opening doors to the next big media movement
                                   Indian Premier League ushers in a new era of marketing
                                   of sports in India. We take this opportunity to analyze
                                   IPL and compare it with leagues like EPL and ICL
                                   (Indian Cricket League).
                                   IPL- already a US$2bn property, is essentially an
                                   attempt to sell cricket as a reality show. Creation of club
                                   culture – would be key to its success. Nevertheless IPL
                                   provides a new entertainment genre which cuts across
                                   classes.
                                   Some of the franchisee would look at IPL as a means to
                                   promote their brand (UB group) while the others would
                                   look it as a financial investment e.g. (India Cements).
                                   The concept is yet to evolve and revenues streams
                                   though difficult to predict would be numerous. Our belief
                                   is that the three successful teams could easily do
                                   revenues of Rs3bn per year in the next three-four years
                                   and all the teams are likely to turn profitable after two-
                                   three years. Their OPMs could range from 15-20%.
                                   Value unlocking for teams would happen through listing
                                   and P/E participation. The world over, average teams
                                   like Tottheham Hotspurs are trading at a 1.5X sales
                                   while a successful team like Manchester have been sold
                                   for 2-5X sales.
                                   Investors looking for an exposure to IPL should look at
                                   investing in India Cements Ltd. We believe that the
                                   company would be EBIDTA positive in the first year. On
                                   conservative basis, it is likely to earn a turnover of
                                   Rs3bn from IPL in the next three-four years. Assuming a
                                   m cap/sales multiple of 2X, the value per share would
                                   be Rs20.
                                                                                                 2
Key features of IPL
       The Indian Premier League or IPL is a 20-20 format cricket tournament. This league was formed by the Board of
       Cricket Control of India (BCCI) and sanctioned by the International Cricket Committee (ICC).
       IPL has been conceived on the lines of the English premier league, where local football teams with a defined fan base
       (supporters) play against each other.
       The idea behind IPL is to sell cricket as a high involvement reality show that would appeal to all audiences.
       IPL has eight teams sold to franchises for perpetuity. These franchises can run the league in their individual styles and
       can raise resources from the primary market. The teams have been capped at 10 – with one at the end of every three
       years.

       SONY-WSG has bagged broadcasting rights for 10 years for US$918mn, excluding marketing for US$108mn.

       The franchise amount collected is US$724mn, with each of the clubs being sold for US$67-112mn, depending on the
       city.

       Besides acquiring teams, each of these franchises has spent US$6-7mn on acquiring players for their teams.

       A total of 59 matches, including finals and semi–finals will be played in this season. (56 league matches plus two semi
       finals and one final). 7 matches are to be played on the home ground.

       Its final leg will be called ‘Champions Twenty20 League’ and all the finalists from across the world will play in it. The
       champion team will get US$5mn – the highest ever price money in a cricket event.

              TVRs in India for International Cricket in India 2007

25

20
                             Sports
                             ESPN-




15                                                                                    “The key brand values of Twenty20 and the IPL e.g. Modern, Racy,
                             Star




                                                   Sports




                                                                      Sports
                                                                      ESPN-




10                                                                                    Engaging, Fresh, Accessible –
                                                   NEO
          Sports
          ESPN-




                                                                      Star




                                                                                      allied to the traditional values of cricket e.g. Reliable, Honest,
          Star




 5
                                                                                      Traditional, Gentlemanly - make for an extraordinarily and
 0                                                                                    compelling mix for brands”.
      ICC world Twenty   ICC world Twenty    India vs Pakistan   English vs India
         20 Average      20 India matches   ODI series average Test series average
        tournament

Source: IPL
        “In England, where it was first introduced in 2003, Twenty20 has resuscitated a moribund domestic game, packing stadiums on summer eveningsquot;
        The Economist, September 22nd 2007                                                                                                                 3
The broadcasting angle

             The BCCI created history when it sold television rights of this yet untested format to Sony–World Sports consortium
             for US$1.02bn.
             However, of this US$1.02bn, US$108mn is to be spent by Sony on promoting the event over the next 10 years. This
             brings down the actual cost to US$918mn.
             Of this US$918mn, Sony has to pay US316mn for rights of broadcasting for the first five years, and then pay
             US608mn – if this format has been remunerative in the first five years.
             In the first year, payouts are not dependent on TRPs. However, TRPs would drive payouts from the second year.

                 The franchisee have a share of 80% in the first year decreasing to 60% in the fifth year of broadcasting rights
                 and the balance would go to IPL.

                 There is an overall cap of US$918mn on the rights which can be shared with the franchisees.


Cash flows for Sony
Rs mn                        Year 1    Year 2    Year 3     Year 4    Year 5    Year 6    Year 7     Year 8    Year 9   Year 10
Ad inflows                    2725      3134       3604      4144      4766      5243       5767      6344      6978      7676
Promotions                     432       432        432       432       432       432        432       432       432       432
Outflows                      2448      2448       2448      2448      2448      4896       4896      4896      4896      4896
P/L                            -155      254        724      1264      1886        -85       439      1016      1650      2348
Source: Company, Alchemy




                                                                                                                                   4
Minimum cash outflows for franchises
 Owners                     City        Price paid for team   Cash outflow per year   Price of Players   Team cash outflow per
                                                  franchise               (US$ mn)           (US$ mn)                     year
                                                  (US$ mn)                                                           (US$ mn)

 Deccan Chronicle           Hyderabad                  107                     10.7                6.0                    16.7

 India Cements              Chennai                     91                      9.1                6.2                    15.3

 UB Group –Vijay Mallya     Bangalore                111.6                     11.2                5.7                    16.9

 Emerging Media             Jaipur                      67                      6.7                3.6                    10.3

 GMR Group                  Delhi                       84                      8.4                6.4                    14.8

 Preity Zinta/Ness
                            Mohali                      76                      7.6                6.6                    14.2
        Wadia/Burman

 Reliance – Mukesh Ambani   Mumbai                   111.9                     11.2                5.4                    16.6

 Shah Rukh Khan/
                            Kolkotta                  75.0                      7.5                6.2                    13.7
 Juhi - Jay Mehta
Source: Alchemy




                                                                                                                                 5
What comes in and goes out?
Revenues                                                      Expenses
  World over, any league has three main sources of              Team franchising costs – A franchisee has to pay 10%
  income namely media receipts, gate receipts and
  sponsorships. Under IPL, these three streams are              of total franchisee costs every year to IPL. Assuming that
  categorized under central and local. Central                  a team is bought by a franchise at US$100mn – it would
  revenues are through IPL.                                     have to pay US$10mn per year to IPL.
  Central
                                                                Player costs – Franchisees have acquired players at a
          Media rights – To be shared equally amongst           total cost of US$4-6mn per year. This includes cost of
          franchises after removing IPL’s share.
                                                                managers and coaches. Each franchise has 18-22
          Sponsorship rights (IPL sponsors) – 60% of            players who are tradable after a year. The players have a
          the amount collected to be distributed equally        three year contract with the franchise.
          amongst the franchises.
                                                                Marketing costs – Each franchise is expected to incur a
  Local
                                                                marketing cost of US$3-4mn for promoting its team.
          Sponsorships – Team sponsorship revenues
          are the most variable and are dependent on the        Stadium expenses – The franchises have to contract
          marketing skills. For example, teams like India       stadiums for seven matches at BCCI agreed rates. On an
          Cements have marketed their teams based on            average, the expense is Rs2.5mn per match.
          the format of IPL – where sponsorships are sold
          on categories. ICL’s main sponsor is Aircel. In
          contrast, the other team of Deccan Chronicle will     Other expenses       like   administration   and    event
          have team partners. These partners will have          management.
          ownership of the team. For example, in case of
          an entertainment partner, anything to do with
          entertainment from cheerleaders to fours and
          sixes will be seen by that party.
          Gate receipts – Are anticipated to be a major
          source of revenues. 20% of tickets are to be
          allocated to IPL.




                                                                                                                             6
P&L of a franchise - The business of sport
 Rs mn                       Year 1   Year 2   Year 3   Year 4   Year 5   Year 6   Year 7   Year 8   Year 9   Year 10
 Income
 Media rights (% share)         80       80       70       70       60       60       60       60       60        60
 Global media rights           245      245      214      214      184      367      367      367      367       367
 Sponsorships (IPL)
 Other sponsorships             72       72       72       72       72      144      144      144      144       144
 Gate receipts
 Ticket sales                  154      200      260      338      440      528      633      728      838       963
 F&B                            31       46       69      104      156      172      189      208      228       251
 Team sponsorships

 Shirt sponsorship              50       80      104      135      162      178      196      216      238       261
 Lead sponsor                  150      180      216      432      497      571      857      943     1037      1348
 In stadia advertising         100      150      210      263      315      362      417      479      551       634
 Licensing programme            20       40       46       53       61       67       74       81       89        98
 Merchandising                  30       50       58       66       76       84       92      101      111       122
 Appearances                    50       70       95      123      154      184      221      265      318       366
 Total                         902     1133     1344     1800     2116     2657     3190     3532     3921      4555
 Expense
 Franchisee costs              400      400      400      400      400      400      400      400      400       400
 Player acquisition            240      312      406      608      791     1028     1542     1851     2221      2887
 Marketing                     120      150      188      234      293      337      387      426      490       564
 Administration                 80       96      115      138      166      191      219      252      290       334
 Event management expenses      20       23       26       30       35       40       46       53       61        70
 Stadium management             1.8       2        2        3        3        4        4        5        5         6
 Total                         862      983     1137     1414     1688     2000     2599     2987     3468      4261
 Operating profit               40      150      207      386      428      658      590      545      453       294
 OPM                            4%      13%      15%      21%      20%      25%      19%      15%      12%        6%
 EBIT                           40      150      207      386      428      658      590      545      453       294

Source: Alchemy                                                                                                         7
Assumptions for our model
      80% media rights will be paid to the franchises in equal proportions and 20% will be based on final league
      positions. However, in our model, we have assumed them to be distributed, equally.

      The media rights accrue to teams in the formula, with a re-pricing after five years as per the Sony-WSG
      contact.

      For central and team sponsors, we have assumed renegotiation of contract every five years and three
      years, respectively, in keeping with the nature of deals signed by most teams.

      Team costs are amortized over 10 years.

      Since players are contracted for three years, we have assumed a renegotiation in salaries after it.

      Player acquisition cost is assumed to increased at 30% per year.

      We have not assumed any trading of players.

      We have not assumed any debt in the financing of the leagues. Further, interest on working capital loans
      would not be significant hence we have not considered the same. The asset is likely to be treated as an
      intangible asset.

  The franchises will receive the following share of central revenues
  Television revenue                Sponsorship revenue
    Time period        Share (%)     Time period          Share (%)

    Year 1             80            Year 10 onwards      60

    Year 2             80            Year 11 onwards      50

    Year 3             70

    Year 4             70

    Year 5-10          60

    Year 11 onwards    70
  Source: IPL
                                                                                                                   8
India Cements Ltd - An opportunity to play on IPL
 Year 1                    share (%)   Rs mn
                                               Revenues
 Revenues thru IPL                                 The matches are to be held at the Chidambaram stadium in Chennai
                                                   which have a capacity of 50,000. 20% of the tickets would be offered to
 Broadcasting rights
                                                   the local cricket associations for use of the stadium for seven league
 SET                            60%      275       matches .
 Other sponsorships             70%       69       We have assumed 80% capacity utilization for matches and average
 Pouring sponsors             100%        13       ticket prices of Rs500. We have assumed the collection to be about half
 Total                                   357
                                                   of that in a normal ODI .
 Team sponsors                                     Aircel is its lead sponsor, who has paid Rs150mn for it. Sponsorship
                                                   includes cap, leading arm, shirt center, six in- stadia boards.
 Main sponsor                            150
 Co-sponsors                              50
                                                   Of the total 72 in-stadia boards, a sixth are available to the local
                                                   franchises. Of the 12, 6 would go to main team sponsor.
 Cheer leader, mascots                    30
                                                   The remaining boards are expected to generate ~Rs0.8mn per board.
 Merchandising                            20

 Total                                   250
                                                   Besides playing matches for teams, players are also contracted to
                                                   make appearances for the franchises for 10 days and eight hours a
 Gate receipts                  80%      128       day .
 Total revenues                          735
                                               Expenses
 Expenses
                                                   The franchisee has spent Rs240mn on acquiring its team including
 Franchisee                              360
                                                   players, manager, coach and physiotherapists.
 Team                                    240
                                                   The marketing expenses for events including local and national
 Advertising                              70       advertising are assumed at Rs70mn.
 Admin                                    60
                                               Conclusion
 Total                                   730
 Net profit/loss                           5
                                                   On conservative basis, India Cements is likely to do turnover of Rs3bn
                                                   from IPL in the next 3-4 years. Assuming mcap/sales multiple of 2X, the
Source: Company, Alchemy                           value per share would be Rs20.



                                                                                                                             9
International perspective
  We have analysed the business models of various clubs from the English Premier League like Tottenham
  Hotspurs, Liverpool and Arsenal.

  These clubs usually own their stadiums and invest heavily into modernizing/constructing stadiums and training
  their teams.

  Most of these leagues are more than 100 years old and have a strong and established local fan base.

  These clubs also have high community involvement and offer training facilities for upcoming players and children
  in the area.

  However lately some league matches have been telecast with players and teams finding support overseas in
  countries like China and the Middle East.

  Growth in revenues is largely dependant on the on field performance of the teams, nevertheless all teams have
  had positive EBIDTA

  Recently some of these leagues have been sold/ bought by individuals. The valuations received by these leagues
  depend on their success on field and from 1.5X to 5X sales.




           Source: IPL
                                                                                                                     10
EPL – A case study
Structure of EPL                                                     IPL versus EPL
EPL has 20 teams and its top five teams qualify for the               In IPL, media revenues for all teams would
European cup.                                                         be almost EQUAL, internationally they vary
                                                                      depending on the success of the league.
We analyzed a few of teams and found that
                                                                      Gate revenues in IPL are largely dependent
  ~35% revenues are from gate receipts                                on stadium capacity and purchasing power
                                                                      of city. They are expected to vary between
  ~30% from media
                                                                      Rs200-Rs5,000 premium seating. 20% of
  ~25% from sponsorships                                              tickets will go to IPL. Internationally, most of
                                                                      these teams own stadiums.
However, though this revenue break-up is similar across most
clubs, the depending on the popularity of the club the amount         The club culture already existed in the West.
differs significantly.                                                In India, it is yet to develop. This would be a
                                                                      litmus test for IPL’s success.
The total revenues of three of the total 20 clubs are given below:
                                                                      Trading of players in IPL to start from year 2.
   Arsenal- £177mn

   Tottenham -£103mn
                                                                           Revenue break up for Tottenhan Hotspurs
   Birmingham City -£40mn
                                                                                        7   6
                                                                                                         29
Concept of trading players - Trading of players is another big
source of income for teams. Sometimes, it can also result in a
                                                                                   33
loss.                                                                                               25

                                                                          Gate receipts              Sponsorship
                                                                          Media and broadcasting     Merchandising
                                                                          Others

                                                                         Source: Company, Alchemy

                                                                                                                         11
Case study 1: Tottenham Hotspurs
                Totteham was not the top rated club but it entered the top five in 2006 and qualified for the European Cup.

                This had a positive impact on its revenues from 2007 which increased by 28%. The main jump was in gate
                receipts which were up 43% as the clubs earned a revenue share from its international games. There was also a
                25% increase in its sponsorship revenues which is attributed to its increased popularity on an international level.

                On the operational front, the margin jumped from 6% to 31%.

                It has to be noted that even in a bad year, the company’s OPM was always positive.

                The debt for CY07 was £40mn, implying debt to equity of 0.83:1

in £ mn                                 2003   2004    2005     2006     2007
                                                                                120
Revenues
                                                                                                                                                  7.05
                                                                                100
Gate receipts -Premier league           16.4   16.3     16.8    17.4     18.0
                                                                                 80                                   4.99          5.18
                                                                                          5.26           3.84                                     33.73
Gate receipts Cup competitions           1.4    3.4      4.2    0.14     12.7    60
                                                                                         24.75          23.89         25.48         28.68         25.42
Sponsorship                             13.6   14.4     14.2    15.7     25.4    40
                                                                                         13.68          14.59         14.24         15.73
Media and broadcasting                  24.7   23.8     25.4    28.6     33.7    20                                                               30.89
                                                                                         17.94          17.93         21.86         17.57
                                                                                  0
Merchandising                            5.2    3.8      4.9     5.1      7.0
                                                                                         2003            2004         2005          2006          2007
Others                                   4.9    4.3      4.7     6.9      6.0    Total gate receipts   Sponsorship   Media and Broadcasting   Merchandising

Total revenue                           66.5   66.3     70.6    74.3    103.6

Growth (%)                                     -0.3      6.1     5.0     28.2

Expenses

Staff costs                             38.0   34.5     33.1    40.6     43.8

Other operating costs                   14.8   20.3     22.7    28.9     27.3

Operating profit                        13.6   11.5     14.7     4.5     32.4

OPM(%)                                         17%     21%       6%      31%

Amortisiation                           18.6   10.9     12.7    11.7      2.2

Depreciation of tangible fixed assets    2.6    1.7      1.8     2.2     19.0

Profit / loss                           -7.6   -1.0      0.1     -9.4    11.1
Source: Company, Alchemy                                                                                                                                      12
Case study 2 : Arsenal
              Arsenal is one of the most successful football clubs in UK .
              The company has three divisions – Arsenal property development, Arsenal men's league, Arsenal women’s
              league.
              For their football division, the overall revenues were up 25% in 2007. The gate revenues saw a 51% growth –
              attributed to the team shifting to a new stadium. While the older stadium had a capacity of ~ 40,000, the new
              stadium has a capacity of almost 60,000 and therefore gate revenues rose from £44mn to 90mn.
              Its merchandising or retail revenues contribute 7% to sales due to its popularity.
              The operating margin was 34%.
              The debt for CY07 was £340mn, implying debt to equity of 2.5:1.
in £ mn                             2003     2004      2005     2006     2007
                                                                                   200
Turnover (from football)                                                                                                                              12.06
                                                                                   180
                                                                                   160
Gate revenues                        27.9     33.7     37.4     44.1      90.6                                                     10.22
                                                                                   140                                                                44.31
                                                                                                         6.89         8.39
broadcasting                         51.8     59.7     48.5     54.8      44.3     120   8.53
                                                                                   100                                                                29.52
Retail                                8.5      6.8      8.3     10.2      12.0                                                     54.87
                                                                                    80                  59.78         48.59
                                                                                         51.8
Commercial                           15.5     14.1     20.7     22.8      29.5      60                                              22.8
                                                                                                        14.31         20.7                            90.61
                                                                                    40   15.58
Player Trading                         0       0.5      0.0      0.1         0.5    20                                37.4          44.1
                                                                                         27.91          33.77
Total revenue                       103.8    115.0    115.4    132.6     177.7       0
                                                                                         2003           2004          2005         2006               2007
Growth (%)                                     10         0       13         25

 Expenses                                                                                        Gate revenues   Commercial   Broadcasting   Retail

Staff costs                          60.5     69.8     66.0     82.9      89.7

Other operating Charges              22.0     22.8     27.6     37.7      28.4

Operating profit                     21.2     22.2     21.8     11.9         60

OPM(%)                                         19        19        9         34

Depreciation and Amortization        20.6     22.0     16.9     17.7      44.6

Total revenue                       103.1    114.8    110.5    138.4     162.7

Profit/ loss                          0.6      0.2      4.9      -5.8     14.9

Source: Company, Alchemy
                                                                                                                                                              13
The Indian Cricket League (ICL): The underdog
    Launched by Subhash Chandra in May 2007, ICL is a unique concept in cricket after Zee was not able to
    secure rights of the World Cup 2011.

    ICL initially had six teams which have now increased to eight (over 200 players). All these teams were owned
    by Subhash Chandra unlike the eight teams in IPL owned by different franchises.

    The investments in ICL are in excess of Rs1bn .

    ICL is scheduled to have four tournaments in an year, of which three are televised events while IPL has only
    one season.

    ICL has evolved despite several constraints like unavailability of venues and professionals associated with ICC.

    The first season was telecast on Zee Sports and was held in one venue.

    The second season was more successful as ICL was able to secure three venues for 24 matches. ICL was
    able to telecast matches on Zee Sports and Ten Sports. Other telecasters include Geo Super in Pakistan,
    Astro & Telkom Malaysia, Starhub in Singapore, Showtime Arabia in Middle-East, Zee Sports in USA &
    Canada and Zee Cinema in United Kingdom & Europe. Global rights have been sold for US$10mn.

    Besides, the second tournament was able to garner good sponsors. Edelweiss was the title sponsor with
    Rs150mn (for ten years) while JVC, Aircel, Vodafone and Intel were associate sponsors.

    Stakes in teams like Kolkotta and Lahore have been sold to Mithun Chakraborthy and Moammar Rana,
    respectively.

    It had a TVR of 1.2. Its revenues till date have been Rs750mn and is expected to break even in FY09E.




                                                                                                                       14
Impact of IPL on other media

    TV GEC
        IPL is scheduled to be telecast in the most sought after prime time slot of 8-11 pm. Currently, this
        slot is the most popular among housewives for soaps aired on general entertainment channels
        (GECs) like Star Plus, Zee and Set.

        Most homes in India are single TV homes and it is likely that IPL will cause a dent in the ratings and
        revenues of other GECs.

        Not only will the Hindi GECs face problems, even regional channels which hitherto did not face
        competition from national level reality shows are likely to take a big hit.
                 Channel                            Genre                        Average TRPS
                 Zee                      Soaps + Rock and Roll family              5 - 5.5
                 Star                     Soaps + Paachvi Pass (SRK)                 4-5
                 9X                        Chak De Bacche+ Reality                 0.7 - 1.35
                 NDTV                        Mythological + Drama                 1.25 - 2.12
               Source: Industry



    Box Office
        Besides impacting TV ratings, IPL fever could have a negative rub off on the revenues of movies at
        the box office. Some of the moves expected to be released in the IPL season are U Me aur Hum,
        Tashan, Krazzy 4 and Bhootnath.

        But IPL is in talks with Multiplex operators to telecast the semi-finals and finals. No decision on the
        same has been reached.




                                                                                                                  15
Should one have an exposure to IPL?
  The franchises are to be treated as a media property generating money over long time. The first season
  would be most crucial as it would be a test whether there are takers for city rivalry.
  Since, the 20-20 format has resurrected cricket in countries like England, the chances of it failing in India
  are low.
  ICL, promoted by Subhash Chandra, has completed two seasons successfully despite a quiet marketing
  and constraints like availability of two-three stadiums only (which are not with BCCI). The finals generated a
  TVR of 1.1 while most of its other matches generated TVRs of 0.7-0.9.
  Amongst listed players, India Cements, Deccan Chronicle and Reliance Industries have exposure to IPL.
  Our study of India Cements shows that the company would have a cash break even in the first year itself.
  Most of these companies would look at listing its franchises in the next three-four years.
  Our analysis shows that the there would be at least two to three successful teams. On a conservative basis,
  the teams can earn annual revenues of Rs3bn in the next three years and OPMs of 20-25%. Successful
  teams can fetch a valuation of 2-5x sales.
  The downside risks include teams not performing like India’s early exit in the World Cup 2007. However, in
  the IPL format, as all franchises are guaranteed to play the full league season and there is no marketing
  risk associated with early elimination. The top Indian and international players are distributed among all
  teams and hence they will participate in semi final and finals. This is expected to ensure that IPL has
  audiences across the world interested in it till the very end.
  We have taken India Cements Ltd as a case study. We believe that the company would be EBIDTA positive
  in the first year. Investors looking to have an exposure to IPL should look at investing in India Cements Ltd.
  On conservative basis, India Cements is likely to do turnover of Rs3bn from IPL in the next 3-4 years.
  Assuming mcap/sales multiple of 2X, the value per share would be Rs20.




                                                                                                                   16
Growth in International Leagues
Franchisee                  Owner                     Year bought   Value when bought    2007 revenue   Value in 2007   CAGR (%)
                                                                             (in $ mn)                       (in $mn)


Top 5 Major League Baseball Franchises
New York Yankees            George Steinbrenner          1973                      10             302           1200          15
New York Mets               Fred Wilpon                  2002                     391             217            736          13
Boston Red Sox              John Henry & Tom Werner      2002                     380             234            724          14
Los Angeles Dodgers         Frank McCourt                2004                     355             211            632          21
Chicago Cubs                Tribune Corporation          1981                      21             197            592          14
Top five National Football League Franchises
Dallas Cowboys              Jerry Jones                  1989                     150             242           1500          14
Washington Redskins         Daniel Snyder                1999                     750             313           1467           9
New England Patriots        Robert Kraft                 1994                     172             255           1199          16
Houston Texans              Robert McNair                1999                     700             225           1056           5
Philadelphia Eagles         Jeffrey Lurie                1994                     185             224           1052          14
Top 5 National Basketball Association Franchises
Toronto Maple Leafs         Bell Globemedia              2003                     224             119            332          10
New York Rangers            Cablevision Systems          1997                     195             109            306           5
Detroit Redwings            Michael Illitch              1982                       8              89            258          15
Dallas Stars                Tom Hicks                    1995                      84              89            248           9
Philadelphia Flyers         Comcast-Spectator            1996                     150              88            246           5
Source: IPL




                                                                                                                                   17
Teams - Annexure I
DECCAN CHAREGERS   CHENNAI SUPER KINGS   ROYAL CHALLENGERS     RAJASTHAN ROYALS
PLAYERS            PLAYERS               PLAYERS               PLAYERS

Andrew Symonds     M.S. Dhoni            Rahul Dravid          Mohd Kaif

R.P. Singh         Jacob Oram            Jacques Kallis        Yousuf Pathan

Rohit Sharma       Albie Morkel          Anil Kumble           Graeme Smith

Adam Gilchrist     Suresh Raina          Cameron White         Shane Warne

Shahid Afridi      Muralitharan          Zaheer Khan           Munaf Patel

Herschelle Gibbs   Matthew Hayden        Mark Boucher          Younis Khan

V V S Laxman       Stephen Fleming       Nathan Bracken        Kamran Akmal

Chaminda Vaas      Parthiv Patel         Dale Steyn            Justin Langer

Scott Styris       J. Sharma             Praveen Kumar         Shane watson

Nuwan Zoysa        Michael hussey        Shivnariane C         Sohil Tanveer

Chamara Silva      Makhaya Ntini         Wasim Jaffer          Dimitri Maskerenhas

Halhadar Das       Sudeep Tyagi          Misbah-ul-haq         Morne Morkel

Kalyankrishna      Srikkanth Anirudha    Ross Taylor           Ravindra Jadeja

Pragyan Ojha       R Aswin               Abdur Tazzak          Taruvar Kohli

Ravi Teja          S. Badrinath          Balachandra Akhil     Pankaj Singh

Venugopal Rao      Napolean              KP Appanna            Anup Revandkar
                                         Jagadeesh Arunkumar                         Legend
Vijaykumar         Shabad

Arjun Yadav        Abinav Mukud          Sunil Joshi                                 Bowlers

                   Lakshmipahy Balaji    Vikrant Kohli                               Batsmen

                                         Devraj Patil                                All rounders

                                         Bharat Chipli                               Wicket keepers

                                         Shreevatas Gosawi
                                         Vijay Kumar                                                  18
Teams - Annexure I
DELHI DAREDEVILS   KINGS XI PUNJAB     MUMBAI INDIANS      KNIGHT RIDERS
PLAYERS            PLAYERS             PLAYERS             PLAYERS
Virender Sehwag    Yuvraj Singh        Sachin Tendulkar    Saurav Ganguly
Gautam Gambhir     Irfan Pathan        Sanath Jayasuriya   Ishant Sharma
Manoj Tiwary       Brett Lee           Harbhajan Singh     Chris Gayle
Mohammed Asif      K. Sangakkara       Robin Uthappa       B. McCullum
Daniel Vettori     S. Sreesanth        Shaun Pollock       David Hussey
Dinesh Karthik     M. Jayawardene      Lasith Malinga      Murali Kartik
Shoaib Malik       Piyush Chawla       Loots B             Shoaib Akhtar
Glenn McGrath      Ramnaresh           Ashwell Prince      Ricky Ponting
A B de Villiers    Simon               Dilhara Fernando    Ajit Agarkar
T. Dilshan         Ramesh Powar        Abhishek Nayyar     Umar Gul
Farveez Mahroof    Luke P              Manish Pandey       Tatenda Taibu
Rajat Bhatia       James Hopes         Ajinkya Rahane      Siddharth Kaul
Brett Geevs        Ajitesh Agral       Pinal shah          Iqbal Abdulla
Shiikar Dhavan     Kyle Mills          Yogesh Takawale     Salman Butt
Mahesh             VRV Singh           Saurabh Tiwari      Mohd Hafeez
Mithum Manhas      Tanmay Srivastava   Ashish Nehra
                                                                            Legand
Pradeep            Karan Goel          Luke Ronchi
Mayak                                                                       Bowlers
                   Uday Kaul
                                                                            Batsmen
                                                                            All rounder
                                                                            Wicket keepers


                                                                                             19
Schedule of matches - Annexure II




Source: IPL
                                     20
Disclaimer




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    Arun Singh                                                              arun@alchemyonline.com                              91-22-6639 9125
                                                                                        Dealing
    Chetan Chitroda                                                        chetan@alchemyonline.com                             91-22-6639 9134

                                                                                    Disclaimer
    This report is not a solicitation or offer to buy or sell any securities or related financial products. The information and commentaries are also not meant to be endorsements or
    offerings of any securities, options, stocks or other investment vehicles. The report is intended for general circulation and does not take into account the specific investment
    objectives, financial situation or particular needs of any particular person. The securities discussed in this report may not be suitable for all investors. The appropriateness of any
    particular investment or strategy whether opined on or referred to in this report or otherwise will depend on an investor’s circumstances and objectives and should be
    independently evaluated and confirmed by such investor, and advice should be sought from a financial adviser concerning the suitability of the investment or strategy, taking into
    account the specific investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs of the investor, before the investor makes a commitment to deal in an investment or implement a
    strategy.
    Investment ideas and/or corporations discussed in this website may have a high level of volatility. High volatility investments may experience sudden and large falls in their value
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The Business of IPL Cricket

  • 1. 15 April 2008 Indian Premier League (IPL) Participate in a media property of the future – India Cements Ltd Yasmin Shah (+91-22-6639 9175) yasmin.shah@alchemyonline.com Dhaval Parekh (+91-22-6639 9128) dhaval.parekh@alchemyonline.com Nitesh Momaya(+91-22-6639 9181) nitesh.momaya@alchemyonline.com 1
  • 2. Opening doors to the next big media movement Indian Premier League ushers in a new era of marketing of sports in India. We take this opportunity to analyze IPL and compare it with leagues like EPL and ICL (Indian Cricket League). IPL- already a US$2bn property, is essentially an attempt to sell cricket as a reality show. Creation of club culture – would be key to its success. Nevertheless IPL provides a new entertainment genre which cuts across classes. Some of the franchisee would look at IPL as a means to promote their brand (UB group) while the others would look it as a financial investment e.g. (India Cements). The concept is yet to evolve and revenues streams though difficult to predict would be numerous. Our belief is that the three successful teams could easily do revenues of Rs3bn per year in the next three-four years and all the teams are likely to turn profitable after two- three years. Their OPMs could range from 15-20%. Value unlocking for teams would happen through listing and P/E participation. The world over, average teams like Tottheham Hotspurs are trading at a 1.5X sales while a successful team like Manchester have been sold for 2-5X sales. Investors looking for an exposure to IPL should look at investing in India Cements Ltd. We believe that the company would be EBIDTA positive in the first year. On conservative basis, it is likely to earn a turnover of Rs3bn from IPL in the next three-four years. Assuming a m cap/sales multiple of 2X, the value per share would be Rs20. 2
  • 3. Key features of IPL The Indian Premier League or IPL is a 20-20 format cricket tournament. This league was formed by the Board of Cricket Control of India (BCCI) and sanctioned by the International Cricket Committee (ICC). IPL has been conceived on the lines of the English premier league, where local football teams with a defined fan base (supporters) play against each other. The idea behind IPL is to sell cricket as a high involvement reality show that would appeal to all audiences. IPL has eight teams sold to franchises for perpetuity. These franchises can run the league in their individual styles and can raise resources from the primary market. The teams have been capped at 10 – with one at the end of every three years. SONY-WSG has bagged broadcasting rights for 10 years for US$918mn, excluding marketing for US$108mn. The franchise amount collected is US$724mn, with each of the clubs being sold for US$67-112mn, depending on the city. Besides acquiring teams, each of these franchises has spent US$6-7mn on acquiring players for their teams. A total of 59 matches, including finals and semi–finals will be played in this season. (56 league matches plus two semi finals and one final). 7 matches are to be played on the home ground. Its final leg will be called ‘Champions Twenty20 League’ and all the finalists from across the world will play in it. The champion team will get US$5mn – the highest ever price money in a cricket event. TVRs in India for International Cricket in India 2007 25 20 Sports ESPN- 15 “The key brand values of Twenty20 and the IPL e.g. Modern, Racy, Star Sports Sports ESPN- 10 Engaging, Fresh, Accessible – NEO Sports ESPN- Star allied to the traditional values of cricket e.g. Reliable, Honest, Star 5 Traditional, Gentlemanly - make for an extraordinarily and 0 compelling mix for brands”. ICC world Twenty ICC world Twenty India vs Pakistan English vs India 20 Average 20 India matches ODI series average Test series average tournament Source: IPL “In England, where it was first introduced in 2003, Twenty20 has resuscitated a moribund domestic game, packing stadiums on summer eveningsquot; The Economist, September 22nd 2007 3
  • 4. The broadcasting angle The BCCI created history when it sold television rights of this yet untested format to Sony–World Sports consortium for US$1.02bn. However, of this US$1.02bn, US$108mn is to be spent by Sony on promoting the event over the next 10 years. This brings down the actual cost to US$918mn. Of this US$918mn, Sony has to pay US316mn for rights of broadcasting for the first five years, and then pay US608mn – if this format has been remunerative in the first five years. In the first year, payouts are not dependent on TRPs. However, TRPs would drive payouts from the second year. The franchisee have a share of 80% in the first year decreasing to 60% in the fifth year of broadcasting rights and the balance would go to IPL. There is an overall cap of US$918mn on the rights which can be shared with the franchisees. Cash flows for Sony Rs mn Year 1 Year 2 Year 3 Year 4 Year 5 Year 6 Year 7 Year 8 Year 9 Year 10 Ad inflows 2725 3134 3604 4144 4766 5243 5767 6344 6978 7676 Promotions 432 432 432 432 432 432 432 432 432 432 Outflows 2448 2448 2448 2448 2448 4896 4896 4896 4896 4896 P/L -155 254 724 1264 1886 -85 439 1016 1650 2348 Source: Company, Alchemy 4
  • 5. Minimum cash outflows for franchises Owners City Price paid for team Cash outflow per year Price of Players Team cash outflow per franchise (US$ mn) (US$ mn) year (US$ mn) (US$ mn) Deccan Chronicle Hyderabad 107 10.7 6.0 16.7 India Cements Chennai 91 9.1 6.2 15.3 UB Group –Vijay Mallya Bangalore 111.6 11.2 5.7 16.9 Emerging Media Jaipur 67 6.7 3.6 10.3 GMR Group Delhi 84 8.4 6.4 14.8 Preity Zinta/Ness Mohali 76 7.6 6.6 14.2 Wadia/Burman Reliance – Mukesh Ambani Mumbai 111.9 11.2 5.4 16.6 Shah Rukh Khan/ Kolkotta 75.0 7.5 6.2 13.7 Juhi - Jay Mehta Source: Alchemy 5
  • 6. What comes in and goes out? Revenues Expenses World over, any league has three main sources of Team franchising costs – A franchisee has to pay 10% income namely media receipts, gate receipts and sponsorships. Under IPL, these three streams are of total franchisee costs every year to IPL. Assuming that categorized under central and local. Central a team is bought by a franchise at US$100mn – it would revenues are through IPL. have to pay US$10mn per year to IPL. Central Player costs – Franchisees have acquired players at a Media rights – To be shared equally amongst total cost of US$4-6mn per year. This includes cost of franchises after removing IPL’s share. managers and coaches. Each franchise has 18-22 Sponsorship rights (IPL sponsors) – 60% of players who are tradable after a year. The players have a the amount collected to be distributed equally three year contract with the franchise. amongst the franchises. Marketing costs – Each franchise is expected to incur a Local marketing cost of US$3-4mn for promoting its team. Sponsorships – Team sponsorship revenues are the most variable and are dependent on the Stadium expenses – The franchises have to contract marketing skills. For example, teams like India stadiums for seven matches at BCCI agreed rates. On an Cements have marketed their teams based on average, the expense is Rs2.5mn per match. the format of IPL – where sponsorships are sold on categories. ICL’s main sponsor is Aircel. In contrast, the other team of Deccan Chronicle will Other expenses like administration and event have team partners. These partners will have management. ownership of the team. For example, in case of an entertainment partner, anything to do with entertainment from cheerleaders to fours and sixes will be seen by that party. Gate receipts – Are anticipated to be a major source of revenues. 20% of tickets are to be allocated to IPL. 6
  • 7. P&L of a franchise - The business of sport Rs mn Year 1 Year 2 Year 3 Year 4 Year 5 Year 6 Year 7 Year 8 Year 9 Year 10 Income Media rights (% share) 80 80 70 70 60 60 60 60 60 60 Global media rights 245 245 214 214 184 367 367 367 367 367 Sponsorships (IPL) Other sponsorships 72 72 72 72 72 144 144 144 144 144 Gate receipts Ticket sales 154 200 260 338 440 528 633 728 838 963 F&B 31 46 69 104 156 172 189 208 228 251 Team sponsorships Shirt sponsorship 50 80 104 135 162 178 196 216 238 261 Lead sponsor 150 180 216 432 497 571 857 943 1037 1348 In stadia advertising 100 150 210 263 315 362 417 479 551 634 Licensing programme 20 40 46 53 61 67 74 81 89 98 Merchandising 30 50 58 66 76 84 92 101 111 122 Appearances 50 70 95 123 154 184 221 265 318 366 Total 902 1133 1344 1800 2116 2657 3190 3532 3921 4555 Expense Franchisee costs 400 400 400 400 400 400 400 400 400 400 Player acquisition 240 312 406 608 791 1028 1542 1851 2221 2887 Marketing 120 150 188 234 293 337 387 426 490 564 Administration 80 96 115 138 166 191 219 252 290 334 Event management expenses 20 23 26 30 35 40 46 53 61 70 Stadium management 1.8 2 2 3 3 4 4 5 5 6 Total 862 983 1137 1414 1688 2000 2599 2987 3468 4261 Operating profit 40 150 207 386 428 658 590 545 453 294 OPM 4% 13% 15% 21% 20% 25% 19% 15% 12% 6% EBIT 40 150 207 386 428 658 590 545 453 294 Source: Alchemy 7
  • 8. Assumptions for our model 80% media rights will be paid to the franchises in equal proportions and 20% will be based on final league positions. However, in our model, we have assumed them to be distributed, equally. The media rights accrue to teams in the formula, with a re-pricing after five years as per the Sony-WSG contact. For central and team sponsors, we have assumed renegotiation of contract every five years and three years, respectively, in keeping with the nature of deals signed by most teams. Team costs are amortized over 10 years. Since players are contracted for three years, we have assumed a renegotiation in salaries after it. Player acquisition cost is assumed to increased at 30% per year. We have not assumed any trading of players. We have not assumed any debt in the financing of the leagues. Further, interest on working capital loans would not be significant hence we have not considered the same. The asset is likely to be treated as an intangible asset. The franchises will receive the following share of central revenues Television revenue Sponsorship revenue Time period Share (%) Time period Share (%) Year 1 80 Year 10 onwards 60 Year 2 80 Year 11 onwards 50 Year 3 70 Year 4 70 Year 5-10 60 Year 11 onwards 70 Source: IPL 8
  • 9. India Cements Ltd - An opportunity to play on IPL Year 1 share (%) Rs mn Revenues Revenues thru IPL The matches are to be held at the Chidambaram stadium in Chennai which have a capacity of 50,000. 20% of the tickets would be offered to Broadcasting rights the local cricket associations for use of the stadium for seven league SET 60% 275 matches . Other sponsorships 70% 69 We have assumed 80% capacity utilization for matches and average Pouring sponsors 100% 13 ticket prices of Rs500. We have assumed the collection to be about half Total 357 of that in a normal ODI . Team sponsors Aircel is its lead sponsor, who has paid Rs150mn for it. Sponsorship includes cap, leading arm, shirt center, six in- stadia boards. Main sponsor 150 Co-sponsors 50 Of the total 72 in-stadia boards, a sixth are available to the local franchises. Of the 12, 6 would go to main team sponsor. Cheer leader, mascots 30 The remaining boards are expected to generate ~Rs0.8mn per board. Merchandising 20 Total 250 Besides playing matches for teams, players are also contracted to make appearances for the franchises for 10 days and eight hours a Gate receipts 80% 128 day . Total revenues 735 Expenses Expenses The franchisee has spent Rs240mn on acquiring its team including Franchisee 360 players, manager, coach and physiotherapists. Team 240 The marketing expenses for events including local and national Advertising 70 advertising are assumed at Rs70mn. Admin 60 Conclusion Total 730 Net profit/loss 5 On conservative basis, India Cements is likely to do turnover of Rs3bn from IPL in the next 3-4 years. Assuming mcap/sales multiple of 2X, the Source: Company, Alchemy value per share would be Rs20. 9
  • 10. International perspective We have analysed the business models of various clubs from the English Premier League like Tottenham Hotspurs, Liverpool and Arsenal. These clubs usually own their stadiums and invest heavily into modernizing/constructing stadiums and training their teams. Most of these leagues are more than 100 years old and have a strong and established local fan base. These clubs also have high community involvement and offer training facilities for upcoming players and children in the area. However lately some league matches have been telecast with players and teams finding support overseas in countries like China and the Middle East. Growth in revenues is largely dependant on the on field performance of the teams, nevertheless all teams have had positive EBIDTA Recently some of these leagues have been sold/ bought by individuals. The valuations received by these leagues depend on their success on field and from 1.5X to 5X sales. Source: IPL 10
  • 11. EPL – A case study Structure of EPL IPL versus EPL EPL has 20 teams and its top five teams qualify for the In IPL, media revenues for all teams would European cup. be almost EQUAL, internationally they vary depending on the success of the league. We analyzed a few of teams and found that Gate revenues in IPL are largely dependent ~35% revenues are from gate receipts on stadium capacity and purchasing power of city. They are expected to vary between ~30% from media Rs200-Rs5,000 premium seating. 20% of ~25% from sponsorships tickets will go to IPL. Internationally, most of these teams own stadiums. However, though this revenue break-up is similar across most clubs, the depending on the popularity of the club the amount The club culture already existed in the West. differs significantly. In India, it is yet to develop. This would be a litmus test for IPL’s success. The total revenues of three of the total 20 clubs are given below: Trading of players in IPL to start from year 2. Arsenal- £177mn Tottenham -£103mn Revenue break up for Tottenhan Hotspurs Birmingham City -£40mn 7 6 29 Concept of trading players - Trading of players is another big source of income for teams. Sometimes, it can also result in a 33 loss. 25 Gate receipts Sponsorship Media and broadcasting Merchandising Others Source: Company, Alchemy 11
  • 12. Case study 1: Tottenham Hotspurs Totteham was not the top rated club but it entered the top five in 2006 and qualified for the European Cup. This had a positive impact on its revenues from 2007 which increased by 28%. The main jump was in gate receipts which were up 43% as the clubs earned a revenue share from its international games. There was also a 25% increase in its sponsorship revenues which is attributed to its increased popularity on an international level. On the operational front, the margin jumped from 6% to 31%. It has to be noted that even in a bad year, the company’s OPM was always positive. The debt for CY07 was £40mn, implying debt to equity of 0.83:1 in £ mn 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 120 Revenues 7.05 100 Gate receipts -Premier league 16.4 16.3 16.8 17.4 18.0 80 4.99 5.18 5.26 3.84 33.73 Gate receipts Cup competitions 1.4 3.4 4.2 0.14 12.7 60 24.75 23.89 25.48 28.68 25.42 Sponsorship 13.6 14.4 14.2 15.7 25.4 40 13.68 14.59 14.24 15.73 Media and broadcasting 24.7 23.8 25.4 28.6 33.7 20 30.89 17.94 17.93 21.86 17.57 0 Merchandising 5.2 3.8 4.9 5.1 7.0 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 Others 4.9 4.3 4.7 6.9 6.0 Total gate receipts Sponsorship Media and Broadcasting Merchandising Total revenue 66.5 66.3 70.6 74.3 103.6 Growth (%) -0.3 6.1 5.0 28.2 Expenses Staff costs 38.0 34.5 33.1 40.6 43.8 Other operating costs 14.8 20.3 22.7 28.9 27.3 Operating profit 13.6 11.5 14.7 4.5 32.4 OPM(%) 17% 21% 6% 31% Amortisiation 18.6 10.9 12.7 11.7 2.2 Depreciation of tangible fixed assets 2.6 1.7 1.8 2.2 19.0 Profit / loss -7.6 -1.0 0.1 -9.4 11.1 Source: Company, Alchemy 12
  • 13. Case study 2 : Arsenal Arsenal is one of the most successful football clubs in UK . The company has three divisions – Arsenal property development, Arsenal men's league, Arsenal women’s league. For their football division, the overall revenues were up 25% in 2007. The gate revenues saw a 51% growth – attributed to the team shifting to a new stadium. While the older stadium had a capacity of ~ 40,000, the new stadium has a capacity of almost 60,000 and therefore gate revenues rose from £44mn to 90mn. Its merchandising or retail revenues contribute 7% to sales due to its popularity. The operating margin was 34%. The debt for CY07 was £340mn, implying debt to equity of 2.5:1. in £ mn 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 200 Turnover (from football) 12.06 180 160 Gate revenues 27.9 33.7 37.4 44.1 90.6 10.22 140 44.31 6.89 8.39 broadcasting 51.8 59.7 48.5 54.8 44.3 120 8.53 100 29.52 Retail 8.5 6.8 8.3 10.2 12.0 54.87 80 59.78 48.59 51.8 Commercial 15.5 14.1 20.7 22.8 29.5 60 22.8 14.31 20.7 90.61 40 15.58 Player Trading 0 0.5 0.0 0.1 0.5 20 37.4 44.1 27.91 33.77 Total revenue 103.8 115.0 115.4 132.6 177.7 0 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 Growth (%) 10 0 13 25 Expenses Gate revenues Commercial Broadcasting Retail Staff costs 60.5 69.8 66.0 82.9 89.7 Other operating Charges 22.0 22.8 27.6 37.7 28.4 Operating profit 21.2 22.2 21.8 11.9 60 OPM(%) 19 19 9 34 Depreciation and Amortization 20.6 22.0 16.9 17.7 44.6 Total revenue 103.1 114.8 110.5 138.4 162.7 Profit/ loss 0.6 0.2 4.9 -5.8 14.9 Source: Company, Alchemy 13
  • 14. The Indian Cricket League (ICL): The underdog Launched by Subhash Chandra in May 2007, ICL is a unique concept in cricket after Zee was not able to secure rights of the World Cup 2011. ICL initially had six teams which have now increased to eight (over 200 players). All these teams were owned by Subhash Chandra unlike the eight teams in IPL owned by different franchises. The investments in ICL are in excess of Rs1bn . ICL is scheduled to have four tournaments in an year, of which three are televised events while IPL has only one season. ICL has evolved despite several constraints like unavailability of venues and professionals associated with ICC. The first season was telecast on Zee Sports and was held in one venue. The second season was more successful as ICL was able to secure three venues for 24 matches. ICL was able to telecast matches on Zee Sports and Ten Sports. Other telecasters include Geo Super in Pakistan, Astro & Telkom Malaysia, Starhub in Singapore, Showtime Arabia in Middle-East, Zee Sports in USA & Canada and Zee Cinema in United Kingdom & Europe. Global rights have been sold for US$10mn. Besides, the second tournament was able to garner good sponsors. Edelweiss was the title sponsor with Rs150mn (for ten years) while JVC, Aircel, Vodafone and Intel were associate sponsors. Stakes in teams like Kolkotta and Lahore have been sold to Mithun Chakraborthy and Moammar Rana, respectively. It had a TVR of 1.2. Its revenues till date have been Rs750mn and is expected to break even in FY09E. 14
  • 15. Impact of IPL on other media TV GEC IPL is scheduled to be telecast in the most sought after prime time slot of 8-11 pm. Currently, this slot is the most popular among housewives for soaps aired on general entertainment channels (GECs) like Star Plus, Zee and Set. Most homes in India are single TV homes and it is likely that IPL will cause a dent in the ratings and revenues of other GECs. Not only will the Hindi GECs face problems, even regional channels which hitherto did not face competition from national level reality shows are likely to take a big hit. Channel Genre Average TRPS Zee Soaps + Rock and Roll family 5 - 5.5 Star Soaps + Paachvi Pass (SRK) 4-5 9X Chak De Bacche+ Reality 0.7 - 1.35 NDTV Mythological + Drama 1.25 - 2.12 Source: Industry Box Office Besides impacting TV ratings, IPL fever could have a negative rub off on the revenues of movies at the box office. Some of the moves expected to be released in the IPL season are U Me aur Hum, Tashan, Krazzy 4 and Bhootnath. But IPL is in talks with Multiplex operators to telecast the semi-finals and finals. No decision on the same has been reached. 15
  • 16. Should one have an exposure to IPL? The franchises are to be treated as a media property generating money over long time. The first season would be most crucial as it would be a test whether there are takers for city rivalry. Since, the 20-20 format has resurrected cricket in countries like England, the chances of it failing in India are low. ICL, promoted by Subhash Chandra, has completed two seasons successfully despite a quiet marketing and constraints like availability of two-three stadiums only (which are not with BCCI). The finals generated a TVR of 1.1 while most of its other matches generated TVRs of 0.7-0.9. Amongst listed players, India Cements, Deccan Chronicle and Reliance Industries have exposure to IPL. Our study of India Cements shows that the company would have a cash break even in the first year itself. Most of these companies would look at listing its franchises in the next three-four years. Our analysis shows that the there would be at least two to three successful teams. On a conservative basis, the teams can earn annual revenues of Rs3bn in the next three years and OPMs of 20-25%. Successful teams can fetch a valuation of 2-5x sales. The downside risks include teams not performing like India’s early exit in the World Cup 2007. However, in the IPL format, as all franchises are guaranteed to play the full league season and there is no marketing risk associated with early elimination. The top Indian and international players are distributed among all teams and hence they will participate in semi final and finals. This is expected to ensure that IPL has audiences across the world interested in it till the very end. We have taken India Cements Ltd as a case study. We believe that the company would be EBIDTA positive in the first year. Investors looking to have an exposure to IPL should look at investing in India Cements Ltd. On conservative basis, India Cements is likely to do turnover of Rs3bn from IPL in the next 3-4 years. Assuming mcap/sales multiple of 2X, the value per share would be Rs20. 16
  • 17. Growth in International Leagues Franchisee Owner Year bought Value when bought 2007 revenue Value in 2007 CAGR (%) (in $ mn) (in $mn) Top 5 Major League Baseball Franchises New York Yankees George Steinbrenner 1973 10 302 1200 15 New York Mets Fred Wilpon 2002 391 217 736 13 Boston Red Sox John Henry & Tom Werner 2002 380 234 724 14 Los Angeles Dodgers Frank McCourt 2004 355 211 632 21 Chicago Cubs Tribune Corporation 1981 21 197 592 14 Top five National Football League Franchises Dallas Cowboys Jerry Jones 1989 150 242 1500 14 Washington Redskins Daniel Snyder 1999 750 313 1467 9 New England Patriots Robert Kraft 1994 172 255 1199 16 Houston Texans Robert McNair 1999 700 225 1056 5 Philadelphia Eagles Jeffrey Lurie 1994 185 224 1052 14 Top 5 National Basketball Association Franchises Toronto Maple Leafs Bell Globemedia 2003 224 119 332 10 New York Rangers Cablevision Systems 1997 195 109 306 5 Detroit Redwings Michael Illitch 1982 8 89 258 15 Dallas Stars Tom Hicks 1995 84 89 248 9 Philadelphia Flyers Comcast-Spectator 1996 150 88 246 5 Source: IPL 17
  • 18. Teams - Annexure I DECCAN CHAREGERS CHENNAI SUPER KINGS ROYAL CHALLENGERS RAJASTHAN ROYALS PLAYERS PLAYERS PLAYERS PLAYERS Andrew Symonds M.S. Dhoni Rahul Dravid Mohd Kaif R.P. Singh Jacob Oram Jacques Kallis Yousuf Pathan Rohit Sharma Albie Morkel Anil Kumble Graeme Smith Adam Gilchrist Suresh Raina Cameron White Shane Warne Shahid Afridi Muralitharan Zaheer Khan Munaf Patel Herschelle Gibbs Matthew Hayden Mark Boucher Younis Khan V V S Laxman Stephen Fleming Nathan Bracken Kamran Akmal Chaminda Vaas Parthiv Patel Dale Steyn Justin Langer Scott Styris J. Sharma Praveen Kumar Shane watson Nuwan Zoysa Michael hussey Shivnariane C Sohil Tanveer Chamara Silva Makhaya Ntini Wasim Jaffer Dimitri Maskerenhas Halhadar Das Sudeep Tyagi Misbah-ul-haq Morne Morkel Kalyankrishna Srikkanth Anirudha Ross Taylor Ravindra Jadeja Pragyan Ojha R Aswin Abdur Tazzak Taruvar Kohli Ravi Teja S. Badrinath Balachandra Akhil Pankaj Singh Venugopal Rao Napolean KP Appanna Anup Revandkar Jagadeesh Arunkumar Legend Vijaykumar Shabad Arjun Yadav Abinav Mukud Sunil Joshi Bowlers Lakshmipahy Balaji Vikrant Kohli Batsmen Devraj Patil All rounders Bharat Chipli Wicket keepers Shreevatas Gosawi Vijay Kumar 18
  • 19. Teams - Annexure I DELHI DAREDEVILS KINGS XI PUNJAB MUMBAI INDIANS KNIGHT RIDERS PLAYERS PLAYERS PLAYERS PLAYERS Virender Sehwag Yuvraj Singh Sachin Tendulkar Saurav Ganguly Gautam Gambhir Irfan Pathan Sanath Jayasuriya Ishant Sharma Manoj Tiwary Brett Lee Harbhajan Singh Chris Gayle Mohammed Asif K. Sangakkara Robin Uthappa B. McCullum Daniel Vettori S. Sreesanth Shaun Pollock David Hussey Dinesh Karthik M. Jayawardene Lasith Malinga Murali Kartik Shoaib Malik Piyush Chawla Loots B Shoaib Akhtar Glenn McGrath Ramnaresh Ashwell Prince Ricky Ponting A B de Villiers Simon Dilhara Fernando Ajit Agarkar T. Dilshan Ramesh Powar Abhishek Nayyar Umar Gul Farveez Mahroof Luke P Manish Pandey Tatenda Taibu Rajat Bhatia James Hopes Ajinkya Rahane Siddharth Kaul Brett Geevs Ajitesh Agral Pinal shah Iqbal Abdulla Shiikar Dhavan Kyle Mills Yogesh Takawale Salman Butt Mahesh VRV Singh Saurabh Tiwari Mohd Hafeez Mithum Manhas Tanmay Srivastava Ashish Nehra Legand Pradeep Karan Goel Luke Ronchi Mayak Bowlers Uday Kaul Batsmen All rounder Wicket keepers 19
  • 20. Schedule of matches - Annexure II Source: IPL 20
  • 21. Disclaimer For further information contact Sales Arun Singh arun@alchemyonline.com 91-22-6639 9125 Dealing Chetan Chitroda chetan@alchemyonline.com 91-22-6639 9134 Disclaimer This report is not a solicitation or offer to buy or sell any securities or related financial products. The information and commentaries are also not meant to be endorsements or offerings of any securities, options, stocks or other investment vehicles. The report is intended for general circulation and does not take into account the specific investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs of any particular person. The securities discussed in this report may not be suitable for all investors. The appropriateness of any particular investment or strategy whether opined on or referred to in this report or otherwise will depend on an investor’s circumstances and objectives and should be independently evaluated and confirmed by such investor, and advice should be sought from a financial adviser concerning the suitability of the investment or strategy, taking into account the specific investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs of the investor, before the investor makes a commitment to deal in an investment or implement a strategy. Investment ideas and/or corporations discussed in this website may have a high level of volatility. High volatility investments may experience sudden and large falls in their value causing losses when the investment is realised. Those losses may equal the original investment. Some investments may not be readily realisable and it may be difficult to sell or realise those investments. Similarly, it may prove difficult to obtain reliable information about the value and risks to which such an investment is exposed. Neither us nor any of our affiliates shall assume any legal liability or responsibility for any incorrect, misleading or altered information contained in this report. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results and there can be no assurance that any investment will achieve comparable results or its investment objectives. Investors may not get back the full amount invested and the net asset value of the investment will fluctuate. Exchange rate fluctuations may affect the return to investors. Alchemy Share and Stock Broker Pvt. Ltd., their respective affiliate companies, associates, directors and/or employees may have investments in securities or derivatives of securities of companies mentioned in this report, and may make investment decisions that are inconsistent with the views expressed in this report. ALCHEMY SHARE & STOCK BROKERS PVT. LTD. Navsari Building, 4th Floor, 240 Dr D. N. Road, Fort, Mumbai: 400 001. India (Tel): 91-22-6639 9100 (Fax): 91-22-2203 3575 21