Advanced energy technology for sustainable development. Part 4

International Symposium on Global Sustainability
Institute of Sustainable Science

Advanced energy technology for
sustainable development
- Analysis of energy for sustainability-
Satoshi Konishi
Institute for Sustainability Science,
Institute of Advanced Energy, Kyoto University

Aug.12-13, 2011

Summer School AACIMP-2011
Kyiv Polytechnic Institute, Ukraine

5．Impact of energy technology
research

research benefits public?

－ As an example, economical ｅｆｆｅｃｔ of the Fusion research
is analyzed

－ energy sales is not the only outcome of the research.
→economical effect out of the market. ”Externality”
is important;
.

－ “Impact pathway” shows 4 effects of the fusion R&D.

1) The direct effect of the purchase ;
The increase of Gross Domestic Production (GDP) as a
measure.
Input-Output table is usually used .

2) The growth of local community and its economy.
Secondary and further effect of purchase.
Employment.
Some of these effects can be estimated with
local community effect out of input-output table.
Evaluation procedure is established.

3) Improvement of technical capability of the industry
Technical spin-offs as part of Externality.
Results usually appears slow and occasional.
Not obtained from the market. Contribution.

4) Energy and related technology.
Appears decades later.
Contribution of industry is mach larger than
Original R&D.
Contribution to the global environment problem.

Mechanism of R&D impact

Impact pathway Category
example
Direct purchace equipment
Energy R&D ①direct construction
Local Community growth
community ②social employment
Industrial
technology Spin-offs
Energy
market ③external High-techs

④future Energy sales
Energy environment
technology Energy security
Specific equipment

Energy research affects four paths.International Symposium on Global Sustainability

④commercial value
of energy

Market scale
③Impacts on technology
In industry
②impacts on local
community
①Direct economical
Effect by research
Investment

2000 2020 2040 2060 2080 2100

Year

Investment source International Symposium on Global Sustainability

・various sponsors provide funding
・different purpose, different phase of development
・investment for research is a certain fraction of total sales
→investment must yield benefit

sales
Fission reactor case
６．２％
For R&D
Basic transfer industry
research Research utility
institute

Research 1960 Further competitiveness
improvements
institutes
commercialization

R&D budget to total sales

basic
R&D/ Basic applied commercial Research
total sales research research development contribution
Industry
Chemical 5.4% 14.7% 26.0% 59.3% 40.7%
ceramics 2.4% 8.1% 23.5% 68.4% 31.6%
steel 1.9% 6.3% 15.7% 78.0% 22.0%
Metal 1.4% 4.0% 11.0% 85.0% 15.0%
machinery 4.0% 5.4% 23.0% 71.6% 28.4%
electrical 5.9% 5.8% 27.4% 66.7% 33.2%
Electronic/ 5.7% 2.7% 13.6% 83.8%
instruments 16.3%
Fine machinery 6.8% 4.0% 22.6% 73.5% 26.6%
softwares 8.4% 0.7% 4.3% 95.1% 5.0%

Spin-offs from fusion research

superconductor
microwaves

Energy storage
Ultra-high
Fusion R&D Telecommuni-
cation
vacuum Ion beam
Power
Analytical materials supply divertor
instruments

Semiconductor
utility High temperature
Surface industry
devices

Technical spin-offs

The spin-off technology is studied with actual fusion R&D project
performed in the Japan Atomic Energy Research Institute.
Total 66 billion Yen (inflation corrected) was spent in 40years.
Products were identified (ca180)by the researchers and industry.
Then their market sizes were evaluated by a third party
(business consulting institute).
Impact on the market is estimated to be 2.7x109 Yen.
Contribution of research institute is 1.2x108 Yen.

Future Energy Market

Market under environmental constraint
Future energy mix was analyzed to consider the entire market.
Environmental constraint requires reduced carbon dioxide
emission.
Fusion will not have chance in “business as usual” scenario.
Fusion electricity is estimated to have ca. 30% of global market.
It is possible to supply same amount of electricity without fusion.
Difference of total electricity cost corresponds a benefit of fusion.
While reduction of the expense benefits consumer
Reduction of the electricity cost can lead to loss in GDP.
This methodology can be used for any energy

Energy supply without fusion

・Future energy market is analyzed to fill the demand with minimal cost.
・Fusion will not appear in “Business as usual” scenario.
・Market can be filled without fusion.

actual estimated
Gton oil equivalent/year

30
Renewable hydrogen
renewables
20 hydro
nuclearUnconventional gas
gas
10 Unconventional oil
oil
coal
0
1900 1950 2000 2050 2100
year

Fusion Electricity Share
GTOE
30
Renewables
Fusion

20
Hydro
Nuclear
UnConventional Gas
Gas
10 UnConventional Oil
Oil
Coal
0
1900 1950 2000 2050 2100

Fusion is estimated to have 10% share at 2100 under
environmental constraint if successfully used for electricity.

Economical impact of fusion development
by the energy market till 2100. International Symposium on Global Sustainability

Electricity Fusion Fusion Electricity
sales devices devices cost
(domestic) (export) saving
direct 37 4.5 47.1 35

Indirect 73 14 149 -
effect
By I/O
table
(in 1012 yen-close to 10 billion Euro or &,billion UAH.
discount rate 2%, integrated from 2050 to 2100.)
Question: benefit measured by GDPs?

Fusion market analysis

In the sales value of electricity, 35% is generation cost.
Contribution of the research is evaluated according to the current
Japanese electricity market.
Fusion reactor and accompanied plant are the product of the
research.
Fusion specific devices have global export market.
(on the other hand fission reactor is assumed to have difficulty in
global market because of nuclear proliferation, fuel cycle and
social acceptance)

For the long period up to 2100, 2% discount rate was applied.
- reduces to 10% as present value equivalent.

Supply chain of energy

Social
demand requirements

resource
waste
Fuel Energy Waste
supply Technology management
flow
Large quantity
stock Energy externality Cheap price
production Logistics
inevitable
Difference from LCA：dynamic. Not the estimation of inventory
→constraints may occur with ample resource
→constraints without material, by externality
→market growth can be also limited.

Supply chain constraint

Supply chain limits energy sales by various reasons.
Demand
fund (time,place)
Storage
Plant construction Transport system
Supply
Transport energy
Energy transport Product
resource transport Generation
sales
(conversion)
Time, place Transport cost Changing needs
infrastructure Storage
Waste
Site/location
disposal
Storage Management
Supply chain is a dynamic process.

Supply chain of fusion

Fusion has some advantages (and disadvantages)
Large demand
Large fund City, industry
Long Plant
construction time
Small quantity
Fuel D and Li Base load
Fusion plant electricity
Rare metals

Advanced Safety concern
technology
Rad Waste
Limited location disposal
Management
Supply chain is a dynamic process.

Limit of renewables

Supply chain limits energy sales by various reasons.

High cost Changing demand

Plant construction
Transport energy

Resource Solar
electricity
uncontrollable wind

Time, place Changing needs

Site/location limited Waste only from
Storage Production and
needed aged

Electric grid capacities

Eastern East
UTPTE
Grid Japan
~270GW
~500GW ~80GW
Vietnam
~8GW
Western Texas West
Grid Grid Japan
~140GW ~53GW Thailand ~100GW
~20GW
Extremely large Grids in a country
Internationally connected Grids
Delicately controlled grids

- these are all exceptional in the future energy market.
Electric grid is a national security issue and
cannot be easily integrated. Physics Today, vol.55, No.4 (2002)

Stability of the grid is region specific.

Forecast of power demand
* Source JBIC report 18
 Thailand  Vietnam
Peak Power (MW)

Peak Power (MW)
 Cambodia  Lao
Peak Power (MW)

Peak Power (MW)

Difference in Grid Composition
35
Grid Capacity 30 Nuclear

output(GW)
25 Hydro
Kansai, night ： 14GWe
20 Fossil fire
Kansai, daytime ： 30GWe
15
Thai ： 15GWe
10
5
Change of the Load 0
200MW, 200MW/sec Kansai,night Kansai,day Thai
Composition of grid
0.00
-0.02 ・Large and fast load affects grid.
frequency(Hz)

-0.04
-0.06 Small capacity cannot respond.
Kansai, Night
-0.08
-0.10 Kansai, daytime
-0.12 Thai ・Grid in Thailand is smaller than
-0.14 Kansai, but has more capacity to
-0.16
accept fusion load.
0 10 20 30
time(sec)
Frequency change

Influence to the power grid

 The grid capacity of 10-20GW is required to supply startup
power of regular size fusion reactor.
 The influence also depends on the grid configuration, as
response time of each power station is different.

Response speed
Hydro fast 10%/min
Oil 5%/min
Coal slow 1%/min
Nuclear not allowed now
Solar/Wind No response

Fusion requires large power Can small grid respond?

Fusion role in the grid

 Thailand  Japan
Solar/Wind Solar/Wind Solar/Wind
Solar/Wind
Coal
Oil Fission Fission
Fusion

Gas Fusion
Coal Coal
Coal
Hydro Oil Oil
Oil

Gas Gas Gas

Hydro Hydro
Hydro

Fusion will respond to increased demand in developing country
While only replaces old stations in Japan.

Technology selection

3 stages of selection by feasibility
• Technology is evaluated by technically, socially and
economically. These 3 stages sometimes overwrap.
• In each stages selection criteria and stakeholder are
different.
Technical-researchers
Socialーgovernment, society,public
commercialーbusiness, company Technical feasibility
consumer Technical success Researcher
• Due to the difference in institute
Social feasibility
criteria, winners could be Social value Government
different.
Commercial public
Cost is not the only measure. benefitfeasibility company

Selection by various reasons

Variety of fission reactors developed
Temperature coolant Thermal Efficiency

CO2 CalderHall
1956
Shippingport
300 Obninsk(RBMK) PW R1 9 5 7 V BW R NPD 30%
1954 1962
Light water 1957
Heavy water SGHWR
EBR1
、
EL-4 1968
1951
1966
Molten salt
FERM I 40%
1 9 6 3 （商用）
500
Liquid metal

A GR
1976

800 Helium 50%

Summary of fusion market

○Fusion is suitable for growing economy after 2050.
・large scale
・unban electricity supply
・little problem of fuel cycle
・self-reliance, free from resource constraint

○ Development of advanced system is a key issue for fusion
・economy – compete with renewables and fossil with CCS
・environment - low activation, short life of rad-waste

○fusion provides significant contribution for global environment
・carbon free electricity
・replaces fossil based fuel.

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