1) Africa faces a major challenge of meeting its growing electricity demand as quickly as possible using flexible power generation technologies. 2) Small, modular power plants made of multiple generating units in parallel provide more reliable and available power compared to single large plants. They also offer flexibility in output, fuel type, and capital costs. 3) Cascading power plants, where units are started up only as needed, improve fuel and maintenance efficiency compared to running plants at constant output levels.

1. SMART POWER GENERATION
TECHNOLOGY FOR AFRICA
JACOB KLIMSTRA FOR WÄRTSILÄ POWER PLANTS
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2. THE CHALLENGE: MUCH MORE QUALITY ELECTRICITY NEEDED
AS QUICKLY AS POSSIBLE
Gross Domestic Product (PPP) per capita per year in 2009 (year 2000 U$$)
40,000
Trend line
35,000 R2 = 0.95
Europe
30,000 North America
25,000
China World
20,000
Average
Latin
15,000 America
10,000
5,000 Middle East
Asia (excl. China)
0
0 Africa 2,000 4,000 6,000 8,000 10,000 12,000 14,000
Electricity use per capita per year (kWh)
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3. AFRICA IS NOT AFRICA AVERAGED
Final electricity use per capita (kWh/annum)
World Average
600 2 500 kWh/cap/year
500
400 Africa total
averaged
Sub-Saharan Africa minus
300
Rep. South Africa
200 Africa total minus
Rep. South Africa
100
0
1,050 1,000 950 900 850 800 750
Population (millions)
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4. Typical trend for a desirable electricity supply
kWh/capita/year
desired kWh/cap trend year 2009 world average target for 2025
3,000
2,500
Growth:
2,000 from 7% towards > 20%
1,500
1,000
500
0
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2015 2025
year
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5. FLEXIBILITY IS CRUCIAL:
THE SMART APPROACH
‘Economic boom for Sub-Saharan Africa’
‘Bleak outlook for the world economy’
‘Solar PV reaches grid parity’
‘(No) Agreement on CO2 reduction’
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6. MULTIPLE GENERATING UNITS IN PARALLEL OR ONE BIG ONE?
• Reliability and availability
(tripping & maintenance)
• Power output flexibility
(demand variations)
• Power capacity flexibility
(economic circumstances)
• Fuel flexibility (gas, bio gas, oil, bio oil)
• Capital costs
Single Big Power Plant n Smaller units
500 MW 500 MW • Local skills
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7. POWER AVAILABILITY
IN ENERGY-
DEPENDENT
COUNTRIES (OECD
OR EDC): 99% to
99.99% availability of
electricity
99%: 3.7 days per
year no electricity
99.9%: 9 hours per
year no electricity
99.99%: 53 minutes
per year no electricity
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8. THE N+ 1 APPROACH: 5 CAN CARRY THE LOAD OF 6
99.85%
Probability (%) Unit reliability 99%
sufficient power
10
1 0.144089402
0.1
0.01 0.001940598
0.001
0.0001 1.47015E-05
0.00001
0.000001
0.000000 5.94E-08
1E-08
1E-09 1E-10
1E-10
1E-11
2 3 4 5 6 7
Number of units failing at the same time
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9. A TYPICAL DAILY DEMAND PATTERN
Peak load
Power (MW)
1,400
1,200
1,000
800
Intermediate load
600
400
200 Base load
0
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24
Time of the day (h)
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10. NOW: SOLAR PV BREAKS THROUGH
Steep and
substantial peak
Power (MW) Solar Demand Generators
1,400
1,200
1,000
800
600
400
200
0
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24
Time of the day (h)
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11. FAST RESPONSE NEEDED
Power (MW) Gas Engine GTCC Steam Plant
100
90
80
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
0 60 120 180 240 300 360 420
Time (minute)
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12. LOWER UTILISATION FACTOR  CAPITAL COSTS 
Relative capital costs per kWh Gas Engine PP Coal-fired PP Nuclear PP
30
25
20
15
10
5
0
20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100
Utilisation factor (%)
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13. SMART POWER GENERATION:
EFFICIENT, FLEXIBLE, FAST, LOW COSTS
Electricity grid connection
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
Fuel supply
Multiple units in parallel run
only when needed
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14. CASCADING: ONLY RUN WHEN IT IS REALLY NEEDED
Fuel efficiency (%) Single Generating Unit Cascading Power Plant
50
45
40
35
30
25
20
15
10
5
0
0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 180
Power output (MW)
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15. MINIMUM MAINTENANCE COSTS
Specific maintenance costs (€cts/kWh) Single Generating Unit Cascading Power Plant
7
6
5
4
3
2
1
0
0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 180
Power output (MW)
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16. POWERPLANTS IN AFRICA
HFO DUAL LFO
GAS Crude
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17. AFRICA INDUSTRIES
HFO DUAL LFO
GAS Crude
Total output 2442.4 MW
Plants 353
Engines 752
In Countries 38
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18. AFRICA UTILITIES
HFO DUAL LFO
GAS
Total output 4198.9 MW
Plants 417
Engines 949
In Countries 42
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19. IN CONCLUSION
1. Africa shows huge growth in power demand
2. Africa needs flexible power plants
3. Power plants based on multiple units offer flexibility,
reliability and efficiency
4. Africa is already a forerunner with flexible plants
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20. VISION – SMART POWER
GENERATION
20 © Wärtsilä | POWERGEN AFRICA 2012