Where will our food come from in twenty years' time. Some information and debating points.

1. Ringmer debates
8th Nov 2013
Where will our food come from in twenty years
time?

2. This is one of a series of debates organised by
Ringmer Liberal Democrats.

3. These slides have the same material as was
presented at the debate. Some of the slides
have notes with additional material, and links to
further information are included at the end.
There is a blog post at
http://acomfortableplace.blogspot.com/2013/11/
where-will-our-food-come-from-in-twenty.html
If you want to continue the debate or ask
questions, you are welcome to do so here or at
the blog

4. The material is presented under several headings:
Population
Production types
Fish
Production methods
Transport
Food waste
Food diversity
Food ethics
Can Britain produce enough food for all its population?
What would you change?

5. Population
The first issue to establish is what the population will be in
twenty years time.

6. UK population
Now 60,000,000
2030 70,000,000
2050 78,000,000
But this is not just about the population of the UK, as the
UK's food supply is inextricably intertwined with that of
the rest of the world.

7. World population
Today 7,122,000,000
2030 8,000,000,000
2050 9,000,000,000
Does this mean that food demand will increase by 8/7 by
2030?

8. Food demand
Probably 50% rise by 2030 due partly to population
increase, partly to rising demand in developing countries.
Rising demand includes changes in diet - as people get
richer they tend to eat more meat, which is relatively
more demanding on land than other foodstuffs.

9. Production types
This refers to the way in which land is used. There is a
relatively finite amount of land usable for agriculture in
this country and in the world in general.
I cannot reproduce here a comprehensive description of
the ways in which land is used, but, as with the other
issues which follow, I just give a snapshot which gives a
clue as to what is going on, and how things might
change.

10. Different forms of food use different amounts of land. This
can be encapsulated in proportions like the amount of
usable protein produced per square metre.
Food type
Usable protein grams per square metre
Soybeans
29
Rice
25
Legumes (average)
11
Milk
8.4
Wheat
8.1
Eggs
8
Maize
7.7
Meat
4
Beef
1.72
Source:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Edible_protein_per_unit_area_of_land

11. The figures above suggest that the land we use could
produce food much more effectively if production were
switched to some degree from heavy land use
production, such as beef, towards lighter uses such as
maize, eggs, or soya.
Nearly 60% of the world’s agricultural land is used for
beef production, yet beef accounts for less than 2% of the
calories that are consumed throughout the world. Beef
makes up 24% of the world's meat consumption, yet
requires 30 million square kilometers of land to produce.
In contrast, poultry accounts for 34% of global meat
consumption and pork accounts for 40%. Both poultry
and pork production uses less than 2 million square
kilometers of land each.
Source: http://www.globalagriculture.org/report-topics/meat.html

12. UK data
How much of our own fruit and veg does the UK supply?
(25%)
How much of our own dairy products does the UK
supply? (82%)

13. The BRC state that 75 per cent of fresh food sold in UK
stores is raised or grown in the UK. Of the quarter that's
imported, only 1 per cent is flown in. UK supermarkets
also sell 75 per cent of the organic food bought in the UK,
compared with the 1.7% sold in farmers' markets. For
organic food, 88% of the carrots, 67% beef, 93% lamb,
100% milk and 100% of eggs are produced in the UK.
(Figures from British Retail Consortium)

14. Food origins: Diagram from DEFRA

15. In 2009-10, the estimated designated Green Belt land
was 1,639,560 hectares, about 13 per cent of the land
area of England.
The Agricultural land (% of land area) in the United
Kingdom was 71.61 in 2009, according to a World Bank
report, published in 2010.
Agricultural land is not necessarily all being cultivated in
farms. I assume that it is land designated as agricultural
for planning purposes. We heard evidence at the meeting
for potentially significant amounts of land in Sussex being
taken over by hobby farmers and not being used to full
effect. The extent and effect of this issue may be worth
investigating.

16. Fish
http://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File%3AA_mackerel.jpg
By Peter van der Sluijs (Own work) [GFDL (http://www.gnu.org/copyleft/fdl.html) or CC-BY-SA-3.0-2.5-2.0-1.0
(http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/3.0)], via Wikimedia Commons

17. Governance of the seas
“The ocean is broken”
http://www.theherald.com.au/story/1848433/the-ocean-is-broken/
The chief issue about fish stocks is the lack of
governance over the oceans, which has given rise to
massive degradation of fish stocks worldwide. While a lot
of fish is farmed these days, we have to consider the
possibility that fish will contirbute only a negligible
proportion of the world's food in twenty years time. The
article from The Herald linked above is a typical account.

18. Production methods
Industrial
Organic
Large scale
Small scale
Personal
The purpose of this slide is to note the ways in which food production
can take place: industrial, by which I mean the typical British farm mechanised, capital intensive, chemical intensive; or organic (or
maybe semi organic). And at either large or small scale. Or personal
- in our survey of a few roads in Ringmer 50 forms were returned and
of those 40% said they grew some of their own food (but with no
indication of scale).
The science vs the art of farming (needs sign up to LinkedIn)
http://www.linkedin.com/groups/Science-vs-Art-Farming-65094.S.5796707822989230082?view=&srchtype=discussedNews&gid=65094

19. Food production is a global issue, even if we think just in
terms of how the UK might feed itself. Sometimes the
global nature of the issue is hidden, particularly in the
case of processed food:
“Take a typical biscuit-containing chocolate bar from a
British shop, manufactured in a British factory. It contains
sugar, cocoa, milk, whey, wheat, yeast, salt, palm oil and
calcium sulphate (a nutritional additive) which are
sourced from all the world, For instance, the salt may
come from China; calcium sulphate from India; palm oil
from Southeast Asia; whey from New Zealand; milk and
wheat from the EU; sugar from the Caribbean; and, of
course, cocoa for the actual chocolate from South
America.”
Source: I have to track down again where this quote came from

20. Transport
Food production being global means that transport is a
very big issue both in terms of cost and in terms of
sustainability.

21. Food produced on another continent starts its journey on
a truck or a train to get from the farm to the transport hub
Truck in Kenya
http://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File%3A2013-01-22_08-21-05_Kenya_Nairobi_Area_-_Ruiru.JPG
By Hansueli Krapf
This file was uploaded with Commonist. [CC-BY-SA-3.0
(http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/3.0)], via Wikimedia Commons

22. It continues on a ship or a plane
http://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File%3AShip_Cap_Spencer_(2).jpg
By Tvabutzku1234 (Own work) [CC0], via Wikimedia Commons

23. Then a truck or a train again
http://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File%3AGardner_European_WA04BHY_(1).jpg
By Graham Richardson from Plymouth, England (Gardner European WA04BHY Uploaded by oxyman) [CC-BY-2.0
(http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/2.0)], via Wikimedia Commons

24. To a distribution centre (itself an intensive use of
resources - electricity, etc)
http://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File%3ATesco_Distribution_Centre%2C_Livingston%2C_West_Lothian.JPG
By Kim Traynor (Own work) [CC-BY-SA-3.0 (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/3.0)], via Wikimedia
Commons

25. And then by truck again to the shop
http://www.commercialmotor.com/latest-news/tesco-to-create--jobs-with-enfield-home-delivery-hub

26. And then home in your car
I have seen figures that suggest that the journey from the
distribution centre to the store in the truck creates less
CO2 per item than the journey home in the car.

27. Food miles as a way of assessing sustainability?
About half of our survey participants thought that food
miles was a good way of assessing the sustainability of
food production.
There are complications. For instance, importing
strawberries grown in Spain may cause less greenhouse
gas production that growing them here under artificial
conditions.
This is linked to a question asked in the survey as to
whether people would be prepared to eat with the
seasons or would want their preferred foods to be
available all year round. About half said they would be
prepared to eat with the seasons.

28. Food waste
The amount of food we need to produce is affected by the
amount we waste - at least in the developed world.
Tesco says almost 30,000 tonnes of food 'wasted'
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-24603008
'Six meals a week' thrown away by Britons
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-24846612
Our survey participants estimated that they threw away
6% of their food on average. 71% say they use the
council caddy and 35% compost.

29. Food diversity
The ways in which foodstuffs are created, and the
proportions created by the different means may change in
the future.
Natural
Hybrid
GMO
Wild
There is an intense debate over the possible effects and
desirability of GM food, which I don't intend to go into in
detail here.
Here is an article which gives a flavour of the debate, and argues for hybrid forms of
production
rather
than
GM:
http://www.theguardian.com/science/politicalscience/2013/jun/28/gm-food

30. Food ethics
The key issue is whether to buy fairly traded food
(whatever that means) or not.
59% of our survey participants said they were prepared to
spend more for fairly traded food, 61% for locally grown
food, and 49% for organic food.

31. Can Britain farm itself?
A key issue for food security is whether Britain can
produce enough food to feed its own population. The
answer from land magazine is - Yes, if we switch some
production from meat to other foods. The article is long
and detailed, and worth reading in full:
http://www.thelandmagazine.org.uk/articles/can-britain-farm-itself-2
This does not altogether solve the issue as we still expect
food trade to be significant, and that we would still export
a considerable amount and import other foods.

32. What would you change?
And finally we asked the question what would you change
to ensure food security for the country in twenty years
time. We did consider whether anything needed to
change: it is possible that scientific advances in
agriculture and water supply may keep us all reasonably
fed.
But to change, for most people, would involve buying
more locally produced food, eating less meat, wasting
less (hence only buying what is needed), eating with the
seasons, perhaps growing some more of their own.

33. What would you change?
We considered food security as an issue for the UK and
also as an issue for the world. Growing our own is not
enough if the rest of the world still does not have enough,
so we considered how Britain might grow more, how the
world might grow more, and how we might help to ensure
that the food that is grown is distributed to the right
places.

34. Links
I
have
a
blog
post
on
this
topic
at
http://acomfortableplace.blogspot.com/2013/11/where-will-our-food-c
Comments are welcome here (but you need to sign in to
Slideshare) or at the blog.
Other links are available at my Diigo account, tagged
“food”. https://www.diigo.com/user/robparsons/food There
are 17 items there at the moment: they will keep you
going for quite a while.