Agile Estimation And Planning

An Introduction to Agile Estimation and Release Planning Phillip Calçado pcalcado@thoughtworks.com © ThoughtWorks 2008

Agile Estimation 1 - Product Backlog ThoughtWorks ThoughtWorks ThoughtWorks ThoughtWorks ThoughtWorks ThoughtWorks ThoughtWorks ThoughtWorks ThoughtWorks © ThoughtWorks 2008

2 - Estimate Each Item ThoughtWorks How long is this going to take? -1 day? -1 week? -Forever? © ThoughtWorks 2008

2 - Estimate Each Item ThoughtWorks Is #1 likely to take longer than #2 ? ThoughtWorks © ThoughtWorks 2008

How much longer? = ThoughtWorks ThoughtWorks ThoughtWorks #1 #1 ? #2 #1 ThoughtWorks #1 ThoughtWorks #1 ThoughtWorks ? ThoughtWorks ThoughtWorks ThoughtWorks ThoughtWorks #1 #1 #1 #1 ? © ThoughtWorks 2008

How much longer? = ☑ ThoughtWorks ThoughtWorks ThoughtWorks #1 #1 ? #2 #1 ThoughtWorks #1 ThoughtWorks #1 ThoughtWorks ThoughtWorks ThoughtWorks ThoughtWorks ThoughtWorks #1 #1 #1 #1 ? © ThoughtWorks 2008

Let’s create a unit =2 ThoughtWorks #1 © ThoughtWorks 2008

Let’s create a unit =2 ThoughtWorks #1 then =6 ThoughtWorks #2 © ThoughtWorks 2008

2 - Estimate Each Item ThoughtWorks ThoughtWorks ThoughtWorks 2 6 4 ThoughtWorks ThoughtWorks ThoughtWorks 2 4 6 ThoughtWorks ThoughtWorks ThoughtWorks 2 4 4 © ThoughtWorks 2008

2 - Estimate Each Item •Stories will change •Everyone estimates •Points aren’t a unit of time •Being consistent is more important than being accurate •Estimates must include uncertainty © ThoughtWorks 2008

3 - Prioritise ThoughtWorks ThoughtWorks ThoughtWorks 2 6 4 ThoughtWorks ThoughtWorks ThoughtWorks 2 4 6 ThoughtWorks ThoughtWorks ThoughtWorks 2 4 4 © ThoughtWorks 2008

3 - Prioritise ThoughtWorks ThoughtWorks ThoughtWorks 2$$$ 6 $ 4$$$ ThoughtWorks ThoughtWorks ThoughtWorks 2 $ 4 $ 6 $$ ThoughtWorks ThoughtWorks ThoughtWorks 2 $ 4 $$ 4 $$ © ThoughtWorks 2008

3 - Prioritise ThoughtWorks ThoughtWorks ThoughtWorks 2$$$ 6 $$ 4 $ ThoughtWorks ThoughtWorks ThoughtWorks 4$$$ 4 $$ 6 $ ThoughtWorks ThoughtWorks ThoughtWorks 4 $$ 2 $ 2 $ © ThoughtWorks 2008

3 - Prioritise •It is important to help the client prioritise •But the client has the final word •Technical dependencies are relevant •Priorities will change over time © ThoughtWorks 2008

4 - Assess Velocity Points = Effort Duration = ? © ThoughtWorks 2008

Iteration 1 Iteration 2 Iteration 3 Iteration 4 Iteration 5 Iteration 6 ThoughtWorks ThoughtWorks ThoughtWorks ThoughtWorks ThoughtWorks ThoughtWorks 2 2 2 4 2 2 ThoughtWorks ThoughtWorks ThoughtWorks ThoughtWorks ThoughtWorks ThoughtWorks 2 2 2 4 4 4 ThoughtWorks ThoughtWorks ThoughtWorks ThoughtWorks ThoughtWorks ThoughtWorks 2 4 4 4 6 6 ThoughtWorks ThoughtWorks ThoughtWorks ThoughtWorks ThoughtWorks ThoughtWorks 2 2 6 2 2 6 8 10 14 14 14 18 © ThoughtWorks 2008

Iteration 1 Iteration 2 Iteration 3 Iteration 4 Iteration 5 Iteration 6 8 10 14 14 14 18 Velocity © ThoughtWorks 2008

4 - Assess Velocity What’s our average Velocity likely to be? © ThoughtWorks 2008

4 - Assess Velocity •Planned Velocity is useful only until we have real data - just an educated guess •“Yesterday’s weather” is more important than average •Iterations must create production-quality increments •Velocity is specific for a team © ThoughtWorks 2008

5 - Candidate Schedule Iteration 1 Iteration 2 Iteration 3 Iteration 4 Iteration 5 Iteration 6 ThoughtWorks ThoughtWorks ThoughtWorks ThoughtWorks ThoughtWorks ThoughtWorks 2 6 2 2 6 4 $$$ $$ $ $ $ $ ThoughtWorks ThoughtWorks ThoughtWorks 4 4 4 $$$ $$ $$ © ThoughtWorks 2008

5 - Candidate Schedule •Ramp-up time usually has a huge impact •Pay attention to cost/scope/ time constraints •Aim at delivering early and often © ThoughtWorks 2008

6 - Monitor and Adapt Real World Example Original Plan Actual Total Scope 60 45 Points 30 15 0 Start 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 Iteration © ThoughtWorks 2008

6 - Monitor and Adapt •You can’t embrace change and have a plan written in stone •Re-estimate whenever necessary •Don’t try and force real life to look like your plan - It’s the other way around © ThoughtWorks 2008

Concluding •This is just a framework - there are multiple variants •The customer is a partner during estimation and planning •Don’t try to change the world, change your plan © ThoughtWorks 2008

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Agile Estimation And Planning

by Phil Calçado

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