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An Introduction to
Agile Estimation and
  Release Planning
          Phillip Calçado
   pcalcado@thoughtworks.com




    ...
Agile Estimation

1 - Product Backlog
    ThoughtWorks                              ThoughtWorks   ThoughtWorks




    Th...
2 - Estimate Each Item

     ThoughtWorks
                    How long is this going to take?

                    -1 day?...
2 - Estimate Each Item
       ThoughtWorks




Is #1 likely
to take longer
than #2 ?
                      ThoughtWorks


...
How much longer?


                     =
                                  ThoughtWorks        ThoughtWorks




      Tho...
How much longer?


                     =                                                                       ☑
        ...
Let’s create a unit

                       =2
        ThoughtWorks




   #1



                       © ThoughtWorks 2008
Let’s create a unit

                       =2
        ThoughtWorks




   #1
               then
                       =...
2 - Estimate Each Item
       ThoughtWorks                         ThoughtWorks       ThoughtWorks




   2               ...
2 - Estimate Each Item
•Stories will change
•Everyone estimates
•Points aren’t a unit of time
•Being consistent is more
im...
3 - Prioritise
    ThoughtWorks                         ThoughtWorks       ThoughtWorks




2                  6          ...
3 - Prioritise
    ThoughtWorks                         ThoughtWorks       ThoughtWorks




2$$$               6          ...
3 - Prioritise
    ThoughtWorks                     ThoughtWorks           ThoughtWorks




2$$$               6          ...
3 - Prioritise
•It is important to help the
client prioritise
•But the client has the final
word
•Technical dependencies a...
4 - Assess Velocity

  Points = Effort
Duration = ?

         © ThoughtWorks 2008
Iteration 1            Iteration 2            Iteration 3                 Iteration 4              Iteration 5            ...
Iteration 1   Iteration 2   Iteration 3              Iteration 4   Iteration 5   Iteration 6




  8            10        ...
4 - Assess Velocity

What’s our average
Velocity likely to be?

           © ThoughtWorks 2008
4 - Assess Velocity
•Planned Velocity is useful only
until we have real data - just an
educated guess
•“Yesterday’s weathe...
5 - Candidate Schedule
Say planned
Velocity is 6


           © ThoughtWorks 2008
5 - Candidate Schedule
Say planned
Velocity is 6
Backlog is
34 points total
          © ThoughtWorks 2008
5 - Candidate Schedule


  34 / 6 = 6 Iterations


           © ThoughtWorks 2008
5 - Candidate Schedule
 Iteration 1            Iteration 2            Iteration 3                   Iteration 4           ...
5 - Candidate Schedule
•Ramp-up time usually has a
huge impact
•Pay attention to cost/scope/
time constraints
•Aim at deli...
6 - Monitor and Adapt

Plans are not
that important.
Planning is.
          © ThoughtWorks 2008
6 - Monitor and Adapt
                        Real World Example
                    Original Plan              Actual    ...
6 - Monitor and Adapt
•You can’t embrace change and
have a plan written in stone
•Re-estimate whenever
necessary
•Don’t tr...
Concluding
•This is just a framework -
there are multiple variants
•The customer is a partner
during estimation and planni...
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Agile Estimation And Planning

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  • hi phi this very nice
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  • Hi Phil,
    It seems by your presentation you are familiar to Jira and Greenhopper, am I right?
    We are using Jira and Greenhopper now and I am a bit stuck about the Velocity per team member. I am estimating the issue (task, not story point) and running different reports, but none of them really suit our needs because we need to have a estimated time per each assignee for the sprint. Maybe there are some suggestiong what I can use?
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Agile Estimation And Planning

  1. 1. An Introduction to Agile Estimation and Release Planning Phillip Calçado pcalcado@thoughtworks.com © ThoughtWorks 2008
  2. 2. Agile Estimation 1 - Product Backlog ThoughtWorks ThoughtWorks ThoughtWorks ThoughtWorks ThoughtWorks ThoughtWorks ThoughtWorks ThoughtWorks ThoughtWorks © ThoughtWorks 2008
  3. 3. 2 - Estimate Each Item ThoughtWorks How long is this going to take? -1 day? -1 week? -Forever? © ThoughtWorks 2008
  4. 4. 2 - Estimate Each Item ThoughtWorks Is #1 likely to take longer than #2 ? ThoughtWorks © ThoughtWorks 2008
  5. 5. How much longer? = ThoughtWorks ThoughtWorks ThoughtWorks #1 #1 ? #2 #1 ThoughtWorks #1 ThoughtWorks #1 ThoughtWorks ? ThoughtWorks ThoughtWorks ThoughtWorks ThoughtWorks #1 #1 #1 #1 ? © ThoughtWorks 2008
  6. 6. How much longer? = ☑ ThoughtWorks ThoughtWorks ThoughtWorks #1 #1 ? #2 #1 ThoughtWorks #1 ThoughtWorks #1 ThoughtWorks ThoughtWorks ThoughtWorks ThoughtWorks ThoughtWorks #1 #1 #1 #1 ? © ThoughtWorks 2008
  7. 7. Let’s create a unit =2 ThoughtWorks #1 © ThoughtWorks 2008
  8. 8. Let’s create a unit =2 ThoughtWorks #1 then =6 ThoughtWorks #2 © ThoughtWorks 2008
  9. 9. 2 - Estimate Each Item ThoughtWorks ThoughtWorks ThoughtWorks 2 6 4 ThoughtWorks ThoughtWorks ThoughtWorks 2 4 6 ThoughtWorks ThoughtWorks ThoughtWorks 2 4 4 © ThoughtWorks 2008
  10. 10. 2 - Estimate Each Item •Stories will change •Everyone estimates •Points aren’t a unit of time •Being consistent is more important than being accurate •Estimates must include uncertainty © ThoughtWorks 2008
  11. 11. 3 - Prioritise ThoughtWorks ThoughtWorks ThoughtWorks 2 6 4 ThoughtWorks ThoughtWorks ThoughtWorks 2 4 6 ThoughtWorks ThoughtWorks ThoughtWorks 2 4 4 © ThoughtWorks 2008
  12. 12. 3 - Prioritise ThoughtWorks ThoughtWorks ThoughtWorks 2$$$ 6 $ 4$$$ ThoughtWorks ThoughtWorks ThoughtWorks 2 $ 4 $ 6 $$ ThoughtWorks ThoughtWorks ThoughtWorks 2 $ 4 $$ 4 $$ © ThoughtWorks 2008
  13. 13. 3 - Prioritise ThoughtWorks ThoughtWorks ThoughtWorks 2$$$ 6 $$ 4 $ ThoughtWorks ThoughtWorks ThoughtWorks 4$$$ 4 $$ 6 $ ThoughtWorks ThoughtWorks ThoughtWorks 4 $$ 2 $ 2 $ © ThoughtWorks 2008
  14. 14. 3 - Prioritise •It is important to help the client prioritise •But the client has the final word •Technical dependencies are relevant •Priorities will change over time © ThoughtWorks 2008
  15. 15. 4 - Assess Velocity Points = Effort Duration = ? © ThoughtWorks 2008
  16. 16. Iteration 1 Iteration 2 Iteration 3 Iteration 4 Iteration 5 Iteration 6 ThoughtWorks ThoughtWorks ThoughtWorks ThoughtWorks ThoughtWorks ThoughtWorks 2 2 2 4 2 2 ThoughtWorks ThoughtWorks ThoughtWorks ThoughtWorks ThoughtWorks ThoughtWorks 2 2 2 4 4 4 ThoughtWorks ThoughtWorks ThoughtWorks ThoughtWorks ThoughtWorks ThoughtWorks 2 4 4 4 6 6 ThoughtWorks ThoughtWorks ThoughtWorks ThoughtWorks ThoughtWorks ThoughtWorks 2 2 6 2 2 6 8 10 14 14 14 18 © ThoughtWorks 2008
  17. 17. Iteration 1 Iteration 2 Iteration 3 Iteration 4 Iteration 5 Iteration 6 8 10 14 14 14 18 Velocity © ThoughtWorks 2008
  18. 18. 4 - Assess Velocity What’s our average Velocity likely to be? © ThoughtWorks 2008
  19. 19. 4 - Assess Velocity •Planned Velocity is useful only until we have real data - just an educated guess •“Yesterday’s weather” is more important than average •Iterations must create production-quality increments •Velocity is specific for a team © ThoughtWorks 2008
  20. 20. 5 - Candidate Schedule Say planned Velocity is 6 © ThoughtWorks 2008
  21. 21. 5 - Candidate Schedule Say planned Velocity is 6 Backlog is 34 points total © ThoughtWorks 2008
  22. 22. 5 - Candidate Schedule 34 / 6 = 6 Iterations © ThoughtWorks 2008
  23. 23. 5 - Candidate Schedule Iteration 1 Iteration 2 Iteration 3 Iteration 4 Iteration 5 Iteration 6 ThoughtWorks ThoughtWorks ThoughtWorks ThoughtWorks ThoughtWorks ThoughtWorks 2 6 2 2 6 4 $$$ $$ $ $ $ $ ThoughtWorks ThoughtWorks ThoughtWorks 4 4 4 $$$ $$ $$ © ThoughtWorks 2008
  24. 24. 5 - Candidate Schedule •Ramp-up time usually has a huge impact •Pay attention to cost/scope/ time constraints •Aim at delivering early and often © ThoughtWorks 2008
  25. 25. 6 - Monitor and Adapt Plans are not that important. Planning is. © ThoughtWorks 2008
  26. 26. 6 - Monitor and Adapt Real World Example Original Plan Actual Total Scope 60 45 Points 30 15 0 Start 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 Iteration © ThoughtWorks 2008
  27. 27. 6 - Monitor and Adapt •You can’t embrace change and have a plan written in stone •Re-estimate whenever necessary •Don’t try and force real life to look like your plan - It’s the other way around © ThoughtWorks 2008
  28. 28. Concluding •This is just a framework - there are multiple variants •The customer is a partner during estimation and planning •Don’t try to change the world, change your plan © ThoughtWorks 2008

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