Inflection Points
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Inflection Points

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Morning keynote presentation at the 2010 Earthquake Engineering Research Institute annual meeting. Focus is on futures thinking tools, along with an overview of key drivers for the next few decades.

Morning keynote presentation at the 2010 Earthquake Engineering Research Institute annual meeting. Focus is on futures thinking tools, along with an overview of key drivers for the next few decades.

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  • Do you know the girl in slide 32, her name was something like nenie and she died, did you put this on here for a special reason, to make a point, I love the slide show, I wish I was present for the presentation.

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  • Not bad at all. A little too confusing for my taste, but I'm sure it goes better with a narrative :) Good job!
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  • 1. INFLECTION POINTS Jamais Cascio Research Fellow, Institute for the Future February 4, 2010
  • 2. What’s Our Vision of The Future?
  • 3. “Legacy Futures”
  • 4. Photo by Jason Tester
  • 5. Is there, perhaps, a more structured way to do this?
  • 6. Is there, perhaps, a more structured way to do this? Yep. “Strategic Foresight.”
  • 7. Scenario Planning
  • 8. Scenario Planning… Tells stories about the future Forces divergent thinking Allows straightforward comparison of outcomes Creates memorable examples But… Tends to over-simplify Becomes obsolete quickly Tends towards the “cinematic”
  • 9. Foresight Mapping 10
  • 10. Foresight Mapping… Emphasizes connections Allows complex relationships Focuses on “signals” and early indicators Tends to remain useful over time But… More difficult to understand at a glance Less likely to elicit surprises Doesn’t demand internal consistency
  • 11. Immersive Futures
  • 12. Immersive Futures… Trigger visceral reactions Emphasize experience Create “plausibly surreal” artifacts of the future Use provocation as a way of eliciting insight But… Can be a challenge to do well Require time to “live in” the future experience Can provoke unexpectedly strong reactions
  • 13. 50 YEARS
  • 14. What we often think of...
  • 15. GLOBAL CLIMATE DISRUPTION climate disruption
  • 16. PANDEMIC DISEASE
  • 17. ECONOMIC DISLOCATION
  • 18. RESOURCE COLLAPSE resource collapse Photo by Stuart Candy
  • 19. TERROR the rise of the post- hegemonic era
  • 20. GROWING STATE POWER
  • 21. WAR
  • 22. AND EVEN...
  • 23. AND EVEN...
  • 24. But we have to also imagine...
  • 25. NEW WAYS TO LIVE
  • 26. CHEAP, DISTRIBUTED ENERGY
  • 27. “LEAPFROG” DEVELOPMENT
  • 28. NEW ECONOMIC MODELS
  • 29. EMERGENT POLITICAL NETWORKS
  • 30. NEW TOOLS FOR WATCHING THE WORLD
  • 31. COLLABORATIVE CREATIVITY
  • 32. NEUROSCIENCE BREAKTHROUGHS
  • 33. HEALTHY LIFE EXTENSION
  • 34. ENVIRONMENTAL TRANSPARENCY filters and awareness • AR
  • 35. TRANSFORMATIVE MATERIALS
  • 36. REVOLUTIONS IN MANUFACTURING
  • 37. REVOLUTIONS IN COMPUTING
  • 38. CRITICAL TENSIONS FOR THE NEXT HALF-CENTURY
  • 39. Tension #1: new innovations undermine core institutions Bottom-up drivers enable greater collaboration and participation, but also greater instability. This is a future of Open Source Design and Global Guerillas. This is a world where power comes from the Commons.
  • 40. Tension #2: new technologies co-evolve with new rules Technology-driven changes enable more sharing of information and ideas, but abandon the remnants of old intellectual property and privacy rules. This is a future of the Smart Cities and Augmented Reality. This is a world where power comes from Connections.
  • 41. Tension #3: big-picture challenges force radical choices Catastrophe and Opportunity combine to drive the creation of new economic, political, and social models. This is a future of Massive Disruptions and Unanticipated Consequences. This is a world where power comes from Creativity.
  • 42. CO THE COMMONS TY VI N N TI EA EC CR TI O N S
  • 43. Using Foresight Thinking
  • 44. AS A “WIND TUNNEL”
  • 45. AS A “WIND TUNNEL” Testing Strategic Options Seeking Adaptation Evolving within a Dynamic Environment
  • 46. AS AN “IMMUNE SYSTEM”
  • 47. AS AN “IMMUNE SYSTEM” Testing Implications Seeking Points of Influence Uncovering Longer-Term Results of Present Choices
  • 48. AS A CHALLENGE
  • 49. AS A CHALLENGE Clarifying Goals Offering Perspective Connecting Purpose and Intent Over the Long Term
  • 50. Jamais Cascio cascio@openthefuture.com Twitter:@cascio