5. Expert A Expert B
Foresight Committee
moderator
anonymity
answer answer
feedbackfeedback
x
(Expert
Panel)
Foresight Committee
6. Consensus through Delphi
Planning of social services for the elderly - seeking
opinions of community- and hospital-based doctors about
seriousness and prevalence of health problems
From Delphi Techniques and the Planning of Social Services - The Prevention of
Dependency Among the Old (Giovanni Bertin)
7. Delphi Applications
Within foresight studies, Delphi is usually used to
tap the wisdom of a group, in order to:
• predict when S&T developments will occur
• assess policy options
• encourage decisions
convergence
consensus
conformity
8. Example of prediction:
“When will the first
hydrogen-powered car hit
the market in your
country?”
(Practical Use)
9. One of the Original Delphi Studies
(Report on a Long-Range Forecast by
Gordon and Helmer)
Published in 1964
Contained forecasts of scientific
and technological breakthroughs
through 2000 and beyond
82 panelists who contributed
included Isaac Asimov and Arthur
Clarke
10. “On
Targets”…
economically useful desalination
of sea water
oral contraceptives
advent of ultra light materials
automated language translation
transplanting organs
more reliable weather forecasts
centralized data banks
artificial organs
X Ray lasers
psychotropic drugs
self replicating molecules
synthetic protein
feasibility of control over
hereditary defects
controlled thermo nuclear power
biochemical general immunization
limited weather control
world population by 2000 less than
6 billion
manned landing on Mars
…and “BigMisses”
11. Realization of Past Forecasts of the Japanese
Delphi conducted every five years after 1970
In 1996, the Sixth survey assessed the first and second surveys
Realized Partially
realized
Unrealized
First
survey
26% 38% 36%
Second
survey
21% 42% 37%
15. Policy Delphi
The same 3 key features apply:
anonymity / iteration / controlled feedback
Example: “Government should bear the burden of
health care across the population by
providing 100% financial support to ensure
universal and equitable access to services.”
Desirability
assessment
very desirable
desirable
undesirable
very undesirable
1
2
3
4
Feasibility
assessment
definitely
possibly
probably not
definitely not
1
2
3
4
Importance
assessment
very important
important
not very important
completely_
_unimportant
1
2
3
4
27. Mission of APEC CTF
• RESEARCH: APEC-wide Foresight Studies
– 7 Projects finished since 1998, focusing on high impact
area such as water, education, nanotechnology and energy
– Mostly funded by both NSTDA and APEC
– Methodologies include Delphi, Scenarios, and TRM
• CONSULTING: for Public and Private Sectors
• TRAINING: Seminars and Workshops (2-3 times a year)
●
Conference on Foresight and Emerging Technologies
Towards “Best Practice” in Technology ForesightTowards “Best Practice” in Technology Foresight
28. Our Customers
●
Siam Cement, Premier Group, CDG
Group, Ministry of Public Health, SCI
Research and Innovation Co.,Ltd., CAT
Telecom Pubic Company Limited,
Electricity Generating Authority of
Thailand, Department of Agriculture,
Institute of Solar Energy Technology
Development, Petroleum Institute of
Thailand, and many others.
Editor's Notes
This chart explains how foresight is different from conventional strategic planning
"Project Delphi" was the name given to a US Air Force-sponsored Rand Corporation study, starting in the early 1950's, concerning the use of expert opinion. The objective of the original study was to "obtain the most reliable consensus of opinion of a group of experts ... by a series of intensive questionnaires interspersed with controlled opinion feedback."
Delphi may be characterized as a method for structuring a group communication process so that the process is effective in allowing a group of individuals, as a whole, to deal with a complex problem. Often, among a panel of geographically dispersed experts.
The name Delphi was never a term with which the founders of the method were particularly happy. It was rather unfortunate that the set of procedures developed at RAND Corporation, and designed to improve methods of forecasting, came to be known as Delphi. The term implies something oracular, something occult, whereas precisely the opposite is involved; it is primarily concerned with making the best you can of a less than perfect fund of information.
In 1969 the number of Delphi studies that had been done could be counted in three digits; today, in 1974, the figure may have already reached four digits.
We are a group of practitioners (e.g. SWOT is given a bad name because mostly it fails in practice
Our strength is management skill
We train people
CDG case is our return customer