TDWI Keynote: Outside In - The Future of Business Intelligence innovation

Outside In Mark Madsen, TDWI – Nov. 1 2007 www.ThirdNature.net Attribution-NonCommercial-No Derivative http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/3.0/us/

We’re Building Yesterday’s Future

Prediction is Hard, Particularly About the Future “ Prediction is very difficult, especially about the future.” Niels Bohr

Mistakes: the Nucleon

Perspective: the short term lens “ Open source is not worth paying attention to.” An industry analyst I don’t want to make too much fun of, January 2006 Where the analysts are on the adoption curve

Perspective: the lens of the past “ All the calculations that will ever be needed in this country could be done on the three digital computers now being built… No one else will ever need machines of their own, or would be able to afford to buy them.” Douglas Hartree, 1951

Problem: linear extrapolation “ The future is the present projected.” Aldous Huxley

Transportation rate of change 1810 1840 1870 1910 1940 1970 2000 Horse Train Car Plane Jet Rocket Speed Somehow they missed this.

An exercise ¿ Qué es más macho ?

An exercise 63% 17%

An exercise ¿ Qué es más macho ? (in five years)

An exercise Safari: mui macho!

Current BI Tool Adoption Forecasts Time BI Users 2017 You Are Here

BI Developers and Administrators Time BI Dev / Admins 2017

Conclusion: 100% of IT will administer BI in ten years Time BI Dev / Admins 2017

Problem: linear extrapolation “ If the automobile had followed the same development as the computer, a Rolls-Royce would today cost $100, get a million miles per gallon, and explode once a year killing everyone inside.” Robert Cringely Time Anything Reality

Why is IT so often caught by surprise?

Real rates of change in IT

Commoditization! “ There is no reason anyone would want a computer in their home.” Ken Olson, CEO of DEC, 1977

“… by 2008 we will be producing one billion transistors for every man, woman and child on earth”

Semiconductor Industry Association, 2007

Meet your new data warehouse

Unexpected Consequences of Commoditization Time Equipment Expensive: outsource to reduce equipment cost Labor Affordable: insource for control, innovation Dirt cheap: outsource to reduce labor cost

Miniaturization

Consequences of Miniaturization Time Data Generated Chipping RFID GPS Sensors

Where is the front end BI architecture today? 1.0 2.0

Web 2.0 Has Both a Social and Technical Architecture

Social architectures in web 2.0 are changing our software like mobiles changed the telephone industry. Web 1.0 Web 2.0

Architecture of Participation, giving gets

Personal first

Community Where are my report folders?

Web 2.0 innovating BI ahead of the BI companies Web 2.0 does BI

The invisible Crowd

Old style Standard tools, 1 size Kitchen sink Big central app . Controlled process Force users New style Many tools, custom fit Simplicity Big central platform, small dist apps Get out of the way Attract users

“ When technology delivers basic needs, user experience dominates” Don Norman

What’s the user experience here?

ip

“ Better experiences, not more features.” Roland Rust

Expectations from a younger generation What happens when the first MySpace crowd hits the workforce?

Entering the workforce today? When you were born:

The PC was 15 years old

You have always had a computer and a video game console.

By the time you were 10, most people had cell phones.

You likely never bought an LP, a cassette, or a calculator.

You've watched 20,000 hours of TV

You've also:

played 10,000 hours of video games

Talked 10,000 hours on the phone

Sent 250,000 emails or IMs

Cars got 18 miles per gallon when you were born and, oops, never mind.

1 in 5 young couples in the US met online

The Timeline of Significant Events 1985 – Born 1985 – Nintendo releases Super Mario Brothers 1985 – GPL is created 1990 – start school 1991 – First web browser 1993 – First popular web browser 1993 – Linux version 1.0 released 1995 – Amazon and eBay founded 1995 – First usable version of Windows 1996 – Secondary school! 1997 – First Harry Potter book!! 1997 – Term “weblog” coined 1998 – Teenager! 1996 – OMG! First modern IM! 1998 – Google founded 1999 – Napster and the rise of p2p 2001 – the iPod debuts 2003 - College 2005 – YouTube is created 2006 – Graduation, video of drunken party on YouTube 2007 – Welcome to your new job

25% of US workers will be with their employer less than one year

The worker starting today should expect to have between 10 and 14 jobs by age 38

The era of the company man is long over

The consumerization of IT means innovation from the outside, just like the 1980s.

Consumerization means circumvention Flexible location Flexible hours Flexible tools Lateral communication

Businesses are going through a shift to more decentralized processes and decision making. Hierarchy Bureaucracy Network

Well vs plumbing BI is still using the old assumptions of hierarchy and centralized control. We are still using the language of control. Control is an illusion.

Bridge the data warehouse to other uses: SOA, not SQL

Rip Mix Burn

“ The future is here. It's just not evenly distributed yet.” William Gibson

We Feel Fine

We Feel Fine One exceptional person did this with no budget. Why can’t we?