Perspective: the short term lens “ Open source is not worth paying attention to.” An industry analyst I don’t want to make too much fun of, January 2006 Where the analysts are on the adoption curve
Perspective: the lens of the past “ All the calculations that will ever be needed in this country could be done on the three digital computers now being built… No one else will ever need machines of their own, or would be able to afford to buy them.” Douglas Hartree, 1951
Problem: linear extrapolation “ The future is the present projected.” Aldous Huxley
Transportation rate of change 1810 1840 1870 1910 1940 1970 2000 Horse Train Car Plane Jet Rocket Speed Somehow they missed this.
Current BI Tool Adoption Forecasts Time BI Users 2017 You Are Here
BI Developers and Administrators Time BI Dev / Admins 2017
Conclusion: 100% of IT will administer BI in ten years Time BI Dev / Admins 2017
Problem: linear extrapolation “ If the automobile had followed the same development as the computer, a Rolls-Royce would today cost $100, get a million miles per gallon, and explode once a year killing everyone inside.” Robert Cringely Time Anything Reality
Commoditization! “ There is no reason anyone would want a computer in their home.” Ken Olson, CEO of DEC, 1977 <ul><li>“… by 2008 we will be producing one billion transistors for every man, woman and child on earth” </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Semiconductor Industry Association, 2007 </li></ul></ul>Meet your new data warehouse
Unexpected Consequences of Commoditization Time Equipment Expensive: outsource to reduce equipment cost Labor Affordable: insource for control, innovation Dirt cheap: outsource to reduce labor cost
Old style Standard tools, 1 size Kitchen sink Big central app . Controlled process Force users New style Many tools, custom fit Simplicity Big central platform, small dist apps Get out of the way Attract users
“ When technology delivers basic needs, user experience dominates” Don Norman
“ Better experiences, not more features.” Roland Rust
Expectations from a younger generation What happens when the first MySpace crowd hits the workforce?
Entering the workforce today? When you were born: <ul><li>The PC was 15 years old </li></ul><ul><li>You have always had a computer and a video game console. </li></ul><ul><li>By the time you were 10, most people had cell phones. </li></ul><ul><li>You likely never bought an LP, a cassette, or a calculator. </li></ul><ul><li>You've watched 20,000 hours of TV </li></ul><ul><li>You've also: </li></ul><ul><ul><li>played 10,000 hours of video games </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Talked 10,000 hours on the phone </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Sent 250,000 emails or IMs </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Cars got 18 miles per gallon when you were born and, oops, never mind. </li></ul><ul><li>1 in 5 young couples in the US met online </li></ul>
The Timeline of Significant Events 1985 – Born 1985 – Nintendo releases Super Mario Brothers 1985 – GPL is created 1990 – start school 1991 – First web browser 1993 – First popular web browser 1993 – Linux version 1.0 released 1995 – Amazon and eBay founded 1995 – First usable version of Windows 1996 – Secondary school! 1997 – First Harry Potter book!! 1997 – Term “weblog” coined 1998 – Teenager! 1996 – OMG! First modern IM! 1998 – Google founded 1999 – Napster and the rise of p2p 2001 – the iPod debuts 2003 - College 2005 – YouTube is created 2006 – Graduation, video of drunken party on YouTube 2007 – Welcome to your new job
<ul><li>25% of US workers will be with their employer less than one year </li></ul><ul><li>The worker starting today should expect to have between 10 and 14 jobs by age 38 </li></ul>The era of the company man is long over
The consumerization of IT means innovation from the outside, just like the 1980s.
Consumerization means circumvention Flexible location Flexible hours Flexible tools Lateral communication
Businesses are going through a shift to more decentralized processes and decision making. Hierarchy Bureaucracy Network
Well vs plumbing BI is still using the old assumptions of hierarchy and centralized control. We are still using the language of control. Control is an illusion.
Bridge the data warehouse to other uses: SOA, not SQL
We Feel Fine One exceptional person did this with no budget. Why can’t we?
Good business intelligence needs three pieces <ul><li>Good access </li></ul><ul><li>Good delivery </li></ul><ul><li>Social features </li></ul><ul><li>We’re 0 and 3. </li></ul>
<ul><li>"In a time of change, it is learners who inherit the future. The learned find themselves well equipped to live in a world that no longer exists.“ </li></ul><ul><li>— Eric Hoffer </li></ul>View this presentation online at ThirdNature.net
CC Image Attributions <ul><li>Thanks to the people who supplied the creative commons licensed images used in this presentation: </li></ul><ul><li>kid gives finger.jpg - http://flickr.com/photos/kevinclark/9826288/ </li></ul><ul><li>riot police line small.jpg - http://flickr.com/photos/73594239@N00/25719098/ </li></ul><ul><li>anne hathaway.jpg - http://flickr.com/photos/barbaradoduk/177959197/ </li></ul><ul><li>baby birthday.jpg - http://flickr.com/photos/yoshimov/19513076/ </li></ul><ul><li>teapot.jpg - http://flickr.com/photos/joi/411403/ </li></ul><ul><li>darasuram temple.jpg - http://flickr.com/photos/ravages/129783888/ </li></ul><ul><li>us capitol building.jpg - http://flickr.com/photos/jcolman/542294684/ </li></ul><ul><li>hamadan people mosaic.jpg - http://flickr.com/photos/hamed/225868856/ </li></ul><ul><li>well town hall.jpg - http://flickr.com/photos/tuinkabouter/1135560976/ </li></ul><ul><li>watchmaker.jpg - http://flickr.com/photos/dashananda/310662720/ </li></ul><ul><li>highway storm.jpg - http://flickr.com/photos/areyoumyrik/235230688 </li></ul><ul><li>web1-0 corporate logo sheet web 2-0ized.jpg - http://flickr.com/photos/stabilo-boss/93136022/ </li></ul><ul><li>web 2-0 logos part1.jpg - http://flickr.com/photos/stabilo-boss/93136022/ </li></ul><ul><li>meerkat.jpg - http://flickr.com/photos/peasap/1089208526/ </li></ul><ul><li>Gare do Oriente Lisbon.jpg - http://flickr.com/photos/higaara/228673603/ </li></ul><ul><li>motionless in crowd2.jpg - http://flickr.com/photos/laburbuja/149566116/ </li></ul><ul><li>snail1.jpg - http://flickr.com/photos/7147684@N03/1037533775/ </li></ul><ul><li>social_architecture.jpg - http://flickr.com/photos/karen-ward/268612548/ </li></ul><ul><li>baby_with_lemon 55381094_10694660e5.jpg - http://flickr.com/photos/pichichi/55381094/ </li></ul><ul><li>laptop face.jpg - http://flickr.com/photos/sd/7746599/ </li></ul>