Outside In Mark Madsen, TDWI – Nov. 1 2007 www.ThirdNature.net Attribution-NonCommercial-No Derivative http://creativecomm...
We’re Building Yesterday’s Future
Prediction is Hard, Particularly About the Future “ Prediction is very difficult, especially about the future.” Niels Bohr
Mistakes: the Nucleon
Perspective: the short term lens “ Open source is not worth paying attention to.” An industry analyst I don’t want to make...
Perspective: the lens of the past “ All the calculations that will ever be needed in this country could be done on the thr...
Problem: linear extrapolation “ The future is the present projected.”   Aldous Huxley
Transportation rate of change 1810 1840 1870 1910 1940 1970 2000 Horse Train Car Plane Jet Rocket Speed Somehow they misse...
An exercise ¿ Qué es más macho ?
An exercise 63% 17%
An exercise ¿ Qué es más macho ?  (in five years)
An exercise Safari: mui macho!
Current BI Tool Adoption Forecasts Time BI Users 2017 You Are Here
BI Developers and Administrators Time BI Dev / Admins 2017
Conclusion: 100% of IT will administer BI in ten years Time BI Dev / Admins 2017
Problem: linear extrapolation “ If the automobile had followed the same development as the computer, a Rolls-Royce would t...
Why is IT so often caught by surprise?
Real rates of change in IT
Commoditization! “ There is no reason anyone would want a computer in their home.” Ken Olson, CEO of DEC, 1977 <ul><li>“… ...
Unexpected Consequences of Commoditization Time Equipment Expensive: outsource to reduce equipment cost Labor Affordable: ...
Miniaturization
Consequences of Miniaturization  Time Data Generated Chipping RFID GPS Sensors
Where is the front end BI architecture today? 1.0 2.0
Web 2.0 Has Both a Social and Technical Architecture
Social architectures in web 2.0 are changing our software like mobiles changed the telephone industry. Web 1.0 Web 2.0
Architecture of Participation, giving gets
Personal first
Community Where are my report folders?
Web 2.0 innovating BI ahead of the BI companies Web 2.0 does BI
The invisible Crowd
Old style Standard tools, 1 size Kitchen sink Big central app  . Controlled process Force users New style Many tools, cust...
“ When technology delivers basic needs, user experience dominates” Don Norman
What’s the user experience here?
ip
“ Better experiences, not more features.” Roland Rust
Expectations from a younger generation What happens when the first MySpace crowd hits the workforce?
Entering the workforce today? When you were born: <ul><li>The PC was 15 years old </li></ul><ul><li>You have always had a ...
The Timeline of Significant Events 1985 – Born 1985 – Nintendo releases Super Mario Brothers 1985 – GPL is created 1990 – ...
<ul><li>25% of US workers will be with their employer less than one year </li></ul><ul><li>The worker starting today shoul...
The consumerization of IT means innovation from the outside, just like the 1980s.
Consumerization means circumvention Flexible location Flexible hours Flexible tools Lateral communication
Businesses are going through a shift to more decentralized processes and decision making. Hierarchy   Bureaucracy   Network
Well vs plumbing BI is still using the  old assumptions of hierarchy and centralized control. We are still using the langu...
Bridge the data warehouse to other uses: SOA, not SQL
Rip Mix Burn
“ The future is here. It's just not evenly distributed yet.” William Gibson
We Feel Fine
We Feel Fine
We Feel Fine
We Feel Fine
We Feel Fine
We Feel Fine
We Feel Fine
We Feel Fine
We Feel Fine
We Feel Fine
We Feel Fine One exceptional person did this with no budget. Why can’t we?
Good business intelligence needs three pieces <ul><li>Good access </li></ul><ul><li>Good delivery </li></ul><ul><li>Social...
<ul><li>&quot;In a time of change, it is learners who inherit the future. The learned find themselves well equipped to liv...
CC Image Attributions <ul><li>Thanks to the people who supplied the creative commons licensed images used in this presenta...
Site references <ul><li>We Feel Fine -  http://wefeelfine.org/ </li></ul><ul><li>Trulia - http://www.trulia.com/ </li></ul...
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TDWI Keynote: Outside In - The Future of Business Intelligence innovation

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The real future of business intelligence rather than the retro future we've been building, and where to look for inspiration and innovation in the future.

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  • Its very nice and good sharing. Its very nice and good presentation.
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  • Hartree was an amazingly smart person. I was pointing out that his perspective was too narrow, as the perspective of an expert looking at the familiar and limiting the view of what something is good for or why someone would want it. I also wanted to use Hartree because this quote is usually misrepresented as 'there's a world market for maybe three computers' and attributed to the CEO of IBM.
    I think the cloud thing applies to enterprise or collective software/services, but don't you think the cloud will also make use of all those distributed devices, like it does now with some of the p2p software?
    I think Douglas Adams is the real oracle here: the coffee machine taking over the ship computer to figure out why a monkey likes tea, or that we view computers with incredibly little foresight (it's an adding machine, it's a typewriter, it's a brochure! being his three eras of computing)<br /><br/>
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  • Good morning and thank you for having me here today.
  • TDWI Keynote: Outside In - The Future of Business Intelligence innovation

    1. 1. Outside In Mark Madsen, TDWI – Nov. 1 2007 www.ThirdNature.net Attribution-NonCommercial-No Derivative http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/3.0/us/
    2. 2. We’re Building Yesterday’s Future
    3. 3. Prediction is Hard, Particularly About the Future “ Prediction is very difficult, especially about the future.” Niels Bohr
    4. 4. Mistakes: the Nucleon
    5. 5. Perspective: the short term lens “ Open source is not worth paying attention to.” An industry analyst I don’t want to make too much fun of, January 2006 Where the analysts are on the adoption curve
    6. 6. Perspective: the lens of the past “ All the calculations that will ever be needed in this country could be done on the three digital computers now being built… No one else will ever need machines of their own, or would be able to afford to buy them.” Douglas Hartree, 1951
    7. 7. Problem: linear extrapolation “ The future is the present projected.” Aldous Huxley
    8. 8. Transportation rate of change 1810 1840 1870 1910 1940 1970 2000 Horse Train Car Plane Jet Rocket Speed Somehow they missed this.
    9. 9. An exercise ¿ Qué es más macho ?
    10. 10. An exercise 63% 17%
    11. 11. An exercise ¿ Qué es más macho ? (in five years)
    12. 12. An exercise Safari: mui macho!
    13. 13. Current BI Tool Adoption Forecasts Time BI Users 2017 You Are Here
    14. 14. BI Developers and Administrators Time BI Dev / Admins 2017
    15. 15. Conclusion: 100% of IT will administer BI in ten years Time BI Dev / Admins 2017
    16. 16. Problem: linear extrapolation “ If the automobile had followed the same development as the computer, a Rolls-Royce would today cost $100, get a million miles per gallon, and explode once a year killing everyone inside.” Robert Cringely Time Anything Reality
    17. 17. Why is IT so often caught by surprise?
    18. 18. Real rates of change in IT
    19. 19. Commoditization! “ There is no reason anyone would want a computer in their home.” Ken Olson, CEO of DEC, 1977 <ul><li>“… by 2008 we will be producing one billion transistors for every man, woman and child on earth” </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Semiconductor Industry Association, 2007 </li></ul></ul>Meet your new data warehouse
    20. 20. Unexpected Consequences of Commoditization Time Equipment Expensive: outsource to reduce equipment cost Labor Affordable: insource for control, innovation Dirt cheap: outsource to reduce labor cost
    21. 21. Miniaturization
    22. 22. Consequences of Miniaturization Time Data Generated Chipping RFID GPS Sensors
    23. 23. Where is the front end BI architecture today? 1.0 2.0
    24. 24. Web 2.0 Has Both a Social and Technical Architecture
    25. 25. Social architectures in web 2.0 are changing our software like mobiles changed the telephone industry. Web 1.0 Web 2.0
    26. 26. Architecture of Participation, giving gets
    27. 27. Personal first
    28. 28. Community Where are my report folders?
    29. 29. Web 2.0 innovating BI ahead of the BI companies Web 2.0 does BI
    30. 30. The invisible Crowd
    31. 31. Old style Standard tools, 1 size Kitchen sink Big central app . Controlled process Force users New style Many tools, custom fit Simplicity Big central platform, small dist apps Get out of the way Attract users
    32. 32. “ When technology delivers basic needs, user experience dominates” Don Norman
    33. 33. What’s the user experience here?
    34. 34. ip
    35. 35. “ Better experiences, not more features.” Roland Rust
    36. 36. Expectations from a younger generation What happens when the first MySpace crowd hits the workforce?
    37. 37. Entering the workforce today? When you were born: <ul><li>The PC was 15 years old </li></ul><ul><li>You have always had a computer and a video game console. </li></ul><ul><li>By the time you were 10, most people had cell phones. </li></ul><ul><li>You likely never bought an LP, a cassette, or a calculator. </li></ul><ul><li>You've watched 20,000 hours of TV </li></ul><ul><li>You've also: </li></ul><ul><ul><li>played 10,000 hours of video games </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Talked 10,000 hours on the phone </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Sent 250,000 emails or IMs </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Cars got 18 miles per gallon when you were born and, oops, never mind. </li></ul><ul><li>1 in 5 young couples in the US met online </li></ul>
    38. 38. The Timeline of Significant Events 1985 – Born 1985 – Nintendo releases Super Mario Brothers 1985 – GPL is created 1990 – start school 1991 – First web browser 1993 – First popular web browser 1993 – Linux version 1.0 released 1995 – Amazon and eBay founded 1995 – First usable version of Windows 1996 – Secondary school! 1997 – First Harry Potter book!! 1997 – Term “weblog” coined 1998 – Teenager! 1996 – OMG! First modern IM! 1998 – Google founded 1999 – Napster and the rise of p2p 2001 – the iPod debuts 2003 - College 2005 – YouTube is created 2006 – Graduation, video of drunken party on YouTube 2007 – Welcome to your new job
    39. 39. <ul><li>25% of US workers will be with their employer less than one year </li></ul><ul><li>The worker starting today should expect to have between 10 and 14 jobs by age 38 </li></ul>The era of the company man is long over
    40. 40. The consumerization of IT means innovation from the outside, just like the 1980s.
    41. 41. Consumerization means circumvention Flexible location Flexible hours Flexible tools Lateral communication
    42. 42. Businesses are going through a shift to more decentralized processes and decision making. Hierarchy Bureaucracy Network
    43. 43. Well vs plumbing BI is still using the old assumptions of hierarchy and centralized control. We are still using the language of control. Control is an illusion.
    44. 44. Bridge the data warehouse to other uses: SOA, not SQL
    45. 45. Rip Mix Burn
    46. 46. “ The future is here. It's just not evenly distributed yet.” William Gibson
    47. 47. We Feel Fine
    48. 48. We Feel Fine
    49. 49. We Feel Fine
    50. 50. We Feel Fine
    51. 51. We Feel Fine
    52. 52. We Feel Fine
    53. 53. We Feel Fine
    54. 54. We Feel Fine
    55. 55. We Feel Fine
    56. 56. We Feel Fine
    57. 57. We Feel Fine One exceptional person did this with no budget. Why can’t we?
    58. 58. Good business intelligence needs three pieces <ul><li>Good access </li></ul><ul><li>Good delivery </li></ul><ul><li>Social features </li></ul><ul><li>We’re 0 and 3. </li></ul>
    59. 59. <ul><li>&quot;In a time of change, it is learners who inherit the future. The learned find themselves well equipped to live in a world that no longer exists.“ </li></ul><ul><li>— Eric Hoffer </li></ul>View this presentation online at ThirdNature.net
    60. 60. CC Image Attributions <ul><li>Thanks to the people who supplied the creative commons licensed images used in this presentation: </li></ul><ul><li>kid gives finger.jpg - http://flickr.com/photos/kevinclark/9826288/ </li></ul><ul><li>riot police line small.jpg - http://flickr.com/photos/73594239@N00/25719098/ </li></ul><ul><li>anne hathaway.jpg - http://flickr.com/photos/barbaradoduk/177959197/ </li></ul><ul><li>baby birthday.jpg - http://flickr.com/photos/yoshimov/19513076/ </li></ul><ul><li>teapot.jpg - http://flickr.com/photos/joi/411403/ </li></ul><ul><li>darasuram temple.jpg - http://flickr.com/photos/ravages/129783888/ </li></ul><ul><li>us capitol building.jpg - http://flickr.com/photos/jcolman/542294684/ </li></ul><ul><li>hamadan people mosaic.jpg - http://flickr.com/photos/hamed/225868856/ </li></ul><ul><li>well town hall.jpg - http://flickr.com/photos/tuinkabouter/1135560976/ </li></ul><ul><li>watchmaker.jpg - http://flickr.com/photos/dashananda/310662720/ </li></ul><ul><li>highway storm.jpg - http://flickr.com/photos/areyoumyrik/235230688 </li></ul><ul><li>web1-0 corporate logo sheet web 2-0ized.jpg - http://flickr.com/photos/stabilo-boss/93136022/ </li></ul><ul><li>web 2-0 logos part1.jpg - http://flickr.com/photos/stabilo-boss/93136022/ </li></ul><ul><li>meerkat.jpg - http://flickr.com/photos/peasap/1089208526/ </li></ul><ul><li>Gare do Oriente Lisbon.jpg - http://flickr.com/photos/higaara/228673603/ </li></ul><ul><li>motionless in crowd2.jpg - http://flickr.com/photos/laburbuja/149566116/ </li></ul><ul><li>snail1.jpg - http://flickr.com/photos/7147684@N03/1037533775/ </li></ul><ul><li>social_architecture.jpg - http://flickr.com/photos/karen-ward/268612548/ </li></ul><ul><li>baby_with_lemon 55381094_10694660e5.jpg - http://flickr.com/photos/pichichi/55381094/ </li></ul><ul><li>laptop face.jpg - http://flickr.com/photos/sd/7746599/ </li></ul>
    61. 61. Site references <ul><li>We Feel Fine - http://wefeelfine.org/ </li></ul><ul><li>Trulia - http://www.trulia.com/ </li></ul><ul><li>ManyEyes - http://services.alphaworks.ibm.com/manyeyes/home </li></ul><ul><li>Data360 - http://www.data360.org/ </li></ul><ul><li>Swivel - http://www.data360.org/ </li></ul><ul><li>Delicious - http://del.icio.us/ </li></ul><ul><li>YouTube - http://youtube.com/ </li></ul><ul><li>Flickr - http://flickr.com/ </li></ul><ul><li>Oakland Crimespotting - http://oakland.crimespotting.org/ </li></ul>

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