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The Astounding Resurrection of AI
A Primer On Artificial Intelligence
March 27, 2015
Matt Turck, FirstMark
Capital
© 2015 FirstMark Capital, All rights reserved. Proprietary and Confidential.
About FirstMark
2
FirstMark
Early-stage VC (Seed & Series A)
Established in 2008
$800m under management
Consumer and Enterprise: Pinterest,
Shopify, Knewton, Lumosity, Tapad,
NewsCred, Riot Games
100+ events per year
www.firstmarkcap.com
Matt Turck
Partner
www.mattturck.com
www.twitter.com/mattturck
Last updated 3/30/15
Monthly Events
Data Driven NYC
8,000 members
http://datadrivennyc.com/
Hardwired NYC
3,200 members
http://hardwirednyc.com/
Design Driven NYC
2,250 members
http://designdrivennyc.com/
© 2015 FirstMark Capital, All rights reserved. Proprietary and Confidential. 3
AI in Hollywood
© 2015 FirstMark Capital, All rights reserved. Proprietary and Confidential.
AI in the 60’s: “It’s going to be huge”
4
“Machines will be capable, within twenty years, of doing any work a man can
do.”
- H. A. Simon, The Shape of Automation for Men and Management,
1965
“In three to eight years we will have a machine with the general intelligence of
an average human being.”
- Marvin Minsky, Life Magazine, 1970
© 2015 FirstMark Capital, All rights reserved. Proprietary and Confidential.
Broken Promises
5
© 2015 FirstMark Capital, All rights reserved. Proprietary and Confidential.
The AI Spring
6
© 2015 FirstMark Capital, All rights reserved. Proprietary and Confidential. 7
Money is Pouring In
After Google’s acquisition of
DeepMind ($400M-$650M),
AI startups see a 302%
funding jump in 2014.
© 2015 FirstMark Capital, All rights reserved. Proprietary and Confidential.
Rapidly Accelerating Startup Activity
8
© 2015 FirstMark Capital, All rights reserved. Proprietary and Confidential. 9
The New Rockstars
Yann Lecun Geoff Hinton Andrew Ng
© 2015 FirstMark Capital, All rights reserved. Proprietary and Confidential.
What’s Different This Time?
“AI [has] now embraced a statistical, brute force approach based on analyzing
vast amounts of information with powerful computers and sophisticated
algorithms.”
- Irving Wladawksy-Berer, Wall Street Journal, Nov 21, 2014
10
Cheap Parallel
Computing
Massive amounts
of data
Better Algorithms
, Deep Learning
A
I
© 2015 FirstMark Capital, All rights reserved. Proprietary and Confidential.
Horizontal AI?
11
A
I
© 2015 FirstMark Capital, All rights reserved. Proprietary and Confidential.
Or Vertical AI?
“Most of the commercial work completed by AI will be done by special-purpose,
narrowly focused software brains that can, for example, translate any language
into any other language, but do little else. Drive a car, but not converse. Or
recall every pixel of every video on YouTube but not anticipate your work
routines. In the next 10 years, 99 percent of the artificial intelligence that
you will interact with, directly or indirectly, will be nerdily autistic,
supersmart specialists.”
– Kevin Kelly, Wired, Oct 27, 2014
12
© 2015 FirstMark Capital, All rights reserved. Proprietary and Confidential.
Automating Mind Numbing Tasks
“People in occupations that span the skill spectrum devote large amounts
of time to ridiculous little tasks that are trivially easy for people but
nonetheless time consuming. Think paralegals or lawyers sifting through boxes
full of documents or researchers fixing all the little irregularities in a dataset.
Maybe the end of that sort of thing, and the beginning of a new round of faster
productivity growth, is in sight.”
“Signs of things to come”, The Economist, July 23rd, 2014
13
© 2015 FirstMark Capital, All rights reserved. Proprietary and Confidential. 14
x.ai
© 2015 FirstMark Capital, All rights reserved. Proprietary and Confidential.
How x.ai Works
15
© 2015 FirstMark Capital, All rights reserved. Proprietary and Confidential.
x.ai Making Friends
16
© 2015 FirstMark Capital, All rights reserved. Proprietary and Confidential.
The Perils of AI
“If we build these devices to
take care of everything for us,
eventually they'll think faster
than us and they'll get rid of
the slow humans to run
companies more efficiently.”
– Steve Wozniak
17
“With artificial intelligence we
are summoning the demon. In
all those stories where there’s
the guy with the pentagram and
the holy water, it’s like yeah
he’s sure he can control the
demon. Didn't work out.”
– Elon Musk
“First the machines will do a lot
of jobs for us and not be super
intelligent. That should be
positive if we manage it well. A
few decades after that though
the intelligence is strong
enough to be a concern.”
– Bill Gates
© 2015 FirstMark Capital, All rights reserved. Proprietary and Confidential.
Living with AI
“At x.ai, we see users responding to Amy as if she is indeed
human. Phrases like ‘You’re amazing’, ‘thank you so much’,
‘would you be so kind’ and other notions of kindness arrive as
replies.”
“Intellectually, we know that a robot doesn’t need to be shown
such level of gratitude but we do. Humans treating an AI like
another human is exactly what we aim to achieve. We love
it!”
– x.ai
18

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The Astonishing Resurrection of AI (A Primer on Artificial Intelligence)

  • 1. The Astounding Resurrection of AI A Primer On Artificial Intelligence March 27, 2015 Matt Turck, FirstMark Capital
  • 2. © 2015 FirstMark Capital, All rights reserved. Proprietary and Confidential. About FirstMark 2 FirstMark Early-stage VC (Seed & Series A) Established in 2008 $800m under management Consumer and Enterprise: Pinterest, Shopify, Knewton, Lumosity, Tapad, NewsCred, Riot Games 100+ events per year www.firstmarkcap.com Matt Turck Partner www.mattturck.com www.twitter.com/mattturck Last updated 3/30/15 Monthly Events Data Driven NYC 8,000 members http://datadrivennyc.com/ Hardwired NYC 3,200 members http://hardwirednyc.com/ Design Driven NYC 2,250 members http://designdrivennyc.com/
  • 3. © 2015 FirstMark Capital, All rights reserved. Proprietary and Confidential. 3 AI in Hollywood
  • 4. © 2015 FirstMark Capital, All rights reserved. Proprietary and Confidential. AI in the 60’s: “It’s going to be huge” 4 “Machines will be capable, within twenty years, of doing any work a man can do.” - H. A. Simon, The Shape of Automation for Men and Management, 1965 “In three to eight years we will have a machine with the general intelligence of an average human being.” - Marvin Minsky, Life Magazine, 1970
  • 5. © 2015 FirstMark Capital, All rights reserved. Proprietary and Confidential. Broken Promises 5
  • 6. © 2015 FirstMark Capital, All rights reserved. Proprietary and Confidential. The AI Spring 6
  • 7. © 2015 FirstMark Capital, All rights reserved. Proprietary and Confidential. 7 Money is Pouring In After Google’s acquisition of DeepMind ($400M-$650M), AI startups see a 302% funding jump in 2014.
  • 8. © 2015 FirstMark Capital, All rights reserved. Proprietary and Confidential. Rapidly Accelerating Startup Activity 8
  • 9. © 2015 FirstMark Capital, All rights reserved. Proprietary and Confidential. 9 The New Rockstars Yann Lecun Geoff Hinton Andrew Ng
  • 10. © 2015 FirstMark Capital, All rights reserved. Proprietary and Confidential. What’s Different This Time? “AI [has] now embraced a statistical, brute force approach based on analyzing vast amounts of information with powerful computers and sophisticated algorithms.” - Irving Wladawksy-Berer, Wall Street Journal, Nov 21, 2014 10 Cheap Parallel Computing Massive amounts of data Better Algorithms , Deep Learning A I
  • 11. © 2015 FirstMark Capital, All rights reserved. Proprietary and Confidential. Horizontal AI? 11 A I
  • 12. © 2015 FirstMark Capital, All rights reserved. Proprietary and Confidential. Or Vertical AI? “Most of the commercial work completed by AI will be done by special-purpose, narrowly focused software brains that can, for example, translate any language into any other language, but do little else. Drive a car, but not converse. Or recall every pixel of every video on YouTube but not anticipate your work routines. In the next 10 years, 99 percent of the artificial intelligence that you will interact with, directly or indirectly, will be nerdily autistic, supersmart specialists.” – Kevin Kelly, Wired, Oct 27, 2014 12
  • 13. © 2015 FirstMark Capital, All rights reserved. Proprietary and Confidential. Automating Mind Numbing Tasks “People in occupations that span the skill spectrum devote large amounts of time to ridiculous little tasks that are trivially easy for people but nonetheless time consuming. Think paralegals or lawyers sifting through boxes full of documents or researchers fixing all the little irregularities in a dataset. Maybe the end of that sort of thing, and the beginning of a new round of faster productivity growth, is in sight.” “Signs of things to come”, The Economist, July 23rd, 2014 13
  • 14. © 2015 FirstMark Capital, All rights reserved. Proprietary and Confidential. 14 x.ai
  • 15. © 2015 FirstMark Capital, All rights reserved. Proprietary and Confidential. How x.ai Works 15
  • 16. © 2015 FirstMark Capital, All rights reserved. Proprietary and Confidential. x.ai Making Friends 16
  • 17. © 2015 FirstMark Capital, All rights reserved. Proprietary and Confidential. The Perils of AI “If we build these devices to take care of everything for us, eventually they'll think faster than us and they'll get rid of the slow humans to run companies more efficiently.” – Steve Wozniak 17 “With artificial intelligence we are summoning the demon. In all those stories where there’s the guy with the pentagram and the holy water, it’s like yeah he’s sure he can control the demon. Didn't work out.” – Elon Musk “First the machines will do a lot of jobs for us and not be super intelligent. That should be positive if we manage it well. A few decades after that though the intelligence is strong enough to be a concern.” – Bill Gates
  • 18. © 2015 FirstMark Capital, All rights reserved. Proprietary and Confidential. Living with AI “At x.ai, we see users responding to Amy as if she is indeed human. Phrases like ‘You’re amazing’, ‘thank you so much’, ‘would you be so kind’ and other notions of kindness arrive as replies.” “Intellectually, we know that a robot doesn’t need to be shown such level of gratitude but we do. Humans treating an AI like another human is exactly what we aim to achieve. We love it!” – x.ai 18

Editor's Notes

  1. Working title, hope you can read the title against the background.
  2. Talk about the hype and general inability to live up to expectations leading to the AI winter in the 80s and 90s
  3. Might start by referring to other instances of AI in popular culture. Ex Machina is the new one that is based on the Turing Test.
  4. Talk about the hype and general inability to live up to expectations leading to the AI winter in the 80s and 90s
  5. Even today AI isn’t where we want it to be - here are funny examples of Siri failing
  6. There are already starting to be “beta” releases of AI into the wild that the public are somewhat familiar with
  7. BUT money is starting to flow back into AI. Lots of it.
  8. Here are examples of vertical commercial AI applications
  9. Here are the top minds in AI getting swept up by the big technology companies.
  10. Describe the renaissance of AI and the factors at play for its success
  11. Here are examples of horizontal Ai, which is more challenging and ambitious
  12. This is the point that AI is more realistically domain-focused rather than broad
  13. This is a transition to talking about x.ai. For the nontechnical and non-VC in the audience, this is a problem everyone has.
  14. Introduce x.ai
  15. Visually describes how x.ai works
  16. Shows how real people really like it.
  17. Here’s a bunch of recent quotes from titans of industry about how we should be cautious with AI
  18. Have we passed the Turing test already?