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Kai-Fu Lee at AI Frontiers : The Era of Artificial Intelligence

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The Era of AI:
The Rise of China &
The Future of Work
Dr. Kai-Fu Lee
Chairman & CEO, Sinovation Ventures
www.aisuperowers....

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Deep Learning
人工智能正在改变世界
“Say something about AI”
It’s a great thing to build a better world with Artificial Intelligence
...

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2015
2011
2004
1998
Wave 4: Autonomous AI
Wave 3: Perception AI (digitized physical world)
Wave 2: Business AI
Wave 1: Int...

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Kai-Fu Lee at AI Frontiers : The Era of Artificial Intelligence

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In this talk, I will talk about the four waves of Artificial Intelligence (AI) , and how AI will permeate every part of our lives in the next decade. I will also talk about how this will be different from previous technology revolutions -- it will be faster and be driven by not one superpower, but two (US and China). AI will add $16 trillion to our global GDP, but also cause many challenges that will be hard to solve. I will talk in particular about AI replacing routine jobs -- the consequences, the proposed solutions that don't work (such as UBI), and end with a blueprint of co-existence between humans and AI.

In this talk, I will talk about the four waves of Artificial Intelligence (AI) , and how AI will permeate every part of our lives in the next decade. I will also talk about how this will be different from previous technology revolutions -- it will be faster and be driven by not one superpower, but two (US and China). AI will add $16 trillion to our global GDP, but also cause many challenges that will be hard to solve. I will talk in particular about AI replacing routine jobs -- the consequences, the proposed solutions that don't work (such as UBI), and end with a blueprint of co-existence between humans and AI.

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Kai-Fu Lee at AI Frontiers : The Era of Artificial Intelligence

  1. 1. The Era of AI: The Rise of China & The Future of Work Dr. Kai-Fu Lee Chairman & CEO, Sinovation Ventures www.aisuperowers.com
  2. 2. Deep Learning 人工智能正在改变世界 “Say something about AI” It’s a great thing to build a better world with Artificial Intelligence 人工智能正在改变世界 Deep Learning
  3. 3. 2015 2011 2004 1998 Wave 4: Autonomous AI Wave 3: Perception AI (digitized physical world) Wave 2: Business AI Wave 1: Internet AI Four waves of Artificial Intelligence Applications
  4. 4. Massive data Accurate, objective tagging Single domain Computation power AI Experts Five Premises of AI 1 2 3 4 5
  5. 5. US Leads in AI Science & Top Scientists Turing Award Recipients in AI Deep Learning Inventors Yann LeCun Yoshua Bengio Geoff Hinton
  6. 6. Source: AMiner 2017 AI and Autonomous Driving Research World’s Leading 1000 AI Experts by Country (H-Index≥60) US 68% China 6% UK 5% Canada 3% Isreal 2% Italy 1% Germany 2% Australia 2% Holland 2% Swissland 1% others 8% China US US leads China by far in top-1000 researchers & patents
  7. 7. So how can China have a chance? Only few AI breakthroughs + they’re easy to apply AI entering era of imple- mentation AI platforms + openness further lowers entry barrier 1 2 3
  8. 8. Observation 1: Only few AI breakthroughs: Deep learning is the biggest breakthrough that is now easy-to-apply 1956 2010 2018 Perceptron Expert System Machine Learning Deep Learning ResNet, Reinforcement Learning, Transfer Learning, GAN, …
  9. 9. Wide-spread Application Early Adopter Research Driven Application Driven Expert is King Data is King Advantage US Advantage China Observation 2: AI is entering the Era of Implementation
  10. 10. Observation 3: AI platforms + openness lower AI entry barrier
  11. 11. Massive data Accurate, objective tagging Single domain Computation power zSuper AI Experts For most applications, super AI experts not needed 1 2 3 4 5 Young AI Engineers
  12. 12. Deep Learning: Autonomous Driving (Student Project)
  13. 13. How China leapfrogs in AI implementation Only few AI breakthroughs + they’re well understood AI entering era of imple- mentation AI platforms + openness further lowers entry barrier Massive Young Chinese AI engineers China has become innovative Chinese founders are fast & tenacious China has more AI funding & unicorns China has more data Chinese techno- utilitarian policies 1 2 3 4 51 2 3 6
  14. 14. Reason 1: Massive number of young Chinese AI engineers Chinese contributions to AI journals and conferences Articles References
  15. 15. Copied from U.S. Inspired by U.S., then leapfrogged Chinese innovations Reason 2: Chinese product innovation has caught up with US Entering the era of: Copy-from-China …
  16. 16. Parallel Universe
  17. 17. Reason 3: Tough market begets tough entrepreneurs Gladiator-like Entrepreneurs moving at lightening speed Work ethic driven by hunger for success Strong fund raising capability + impregnable bus. model Fast iterations towards business goals, while adding data = the key to AI implementation 996
  18. 18. Reason 4: China's AI capital leads the world 2017 world-wide AI investments 48% 38% 13% Source: CB Insights 2017 Global Artificial Intelligence Investment China U.S. Others China-US Top Voice Recognition Company Valuation (in USD billions) iFlyTek Nuance US$12B US$7B
  19. 19. 计算机视觉 首家独角兽 Valued at $15Bn Multiple~ 13x World's most profitable mining machine + AI chip company Valued at $1Bn Multiple~ 12x China's first AI unicorn in Fin-Tech Valued at $2.2Bn Multiple~ 72x World’s first AI unicorn in computer vision Valued at $1Bn Multiple~ 22x China's first AI unicorn in autonomous driving Valued at $1.5Bn Multiple~ 8x China's unicorn in consumer AI chip Sinovation Ventures’ s AI unicorns, total valuation $21B
  20. 20. Reason 5: Massive data is critical for AI product success Algorithms are important Data is even more critical More data Better AI-trained product More users More revenue More scientists/ machines ModelPrecision Size of Data Big Market = Big Data = Best AI
  21. 21. In the age of AI, China is the Saudi Arabia in data 0 3 6 9 12 中国 美国 印度 巴西 俄罗斯 日本 墨西哥 印尼 土耳其 泰国 韩国 U.S. Brazil Russia Japan Mexico Indonesia Turkey Thailand KoreaIndia 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 中国 美国 0 3 6 9 12 15 2015 2016 2017E 2018E 2019E 300X 50X 0 200 400 600 800 1000 1200 1400 1600 1800 2000 中国 美国 10X Mobile Internet users by country (100 million) Mobile Internet, China vs. U.S. (USD trillion) Food Delivery, China vs. U.S. (10,000/day) Shared bike rides, China vs. U.S. (million/day) 3X China China ChinaU.S. U.S.
  22. 22. US $18.8 trillion2017 China Mobile Payment 2017 US $12.9 trillionChina GDP Mobile payment everywhere
  23. 23. Reason 6: Techno-utilitarian Chinese policies Setting the tone: Chinese State Council AI Development Plan, July 2017 • By 2020: Lead AI technology & applications • By 2030: Become global AI innovation hub Infrastructure investments: Xiong’an: New city with autonomous driving • Two layers: one for automobiles, one for pedestrians Zhejiang: New highway with sensors to improve safety
  24. 24. China 5 China 8 China 3 China 6 US 5 US 2 US 7 US 4 AIImplementation:China’sgrowingrapidlyandcannotbestopped 2018 2023 Internet AI Business AI Perception AI Automation AI China 1 China 1 US 10 US 9 US 10 US 9 2013 China 1 China 6 China 1 China 5 US 9 US 4 US 9 US 5
  25. 25. The Four Forces Accelerating AI Sino-US dual engine drive AI platform emerging; many apps comingAI VC & funds growing rapidly 7 giants with own virtuous cycle1 2 3 4
  26. 26. $ 15.7 Trillion By 2030 PWC predicts the size of the world AI market (2017 China + India GDP = $15.3 trillion) Today’s AI + extrapolations will create unprecedented wealth
  27. 27. AI will also cause unprecedented challenges Bias from Data Job Displacement SecurityPrivacy Giant Dominance Wealth Inequality
  28. 28. AI Displaces Jobs Much More Than It Creates Tele-sales Dishwasher Customer Support Truck driver Courier Security Guards Radiologist Reporter Research Analyst CEO M&A Expert Economist Repetitive Routine Optimizing Complex Creative Columnist Scientist Artist 5years SAFE SAFE AI AI AI Optimization Creativity or Strategy 10years 15years
  29. 29. zWhite collar Blue collar The Displacement is Happening … Starting NOW!!
  30. 30. CEO M&A Expert Economist Complex Creative Columnist Scientist Artist SAFE SAFE Optimization Creativity or Strategy Wave of Unemployed All Becoming “Creative”?
  31. 31. The Two Weaknesses of AI: No Creativity & No Love! AI is just a tool, and cannot create AI has no self-awareness or love
  32. 32. HUMAN +AI AI Human Creativity AI Tool Tele-sales Dishwasher Customer Support Courier Security Guards Truck driver Reporter Research Analyst Radiologist CEO M&A Expert Economist Repetitive Routine Optimizing Complex Creative Columnist Scientist Artist Elderly Caretaker Wedding Planner Hotline volunteer Teacher Beauty Consultant Concierge Tour Guide Social Worker Remote Tutor Home-school teacher Elderly Companion PR/Marketing DirectorAI Analysis Human Warmth
  33. 33. AI: Era of Human Enlightenment 1. Be thankful of the AI Era: • Liberate us from routine work • Push us into thinking what makes us human 2. Be responsible for humanity: • We have free will, • and must choose to write our ending to the AI story
  34. 34. Conclusion: 21st Century Will be Remembered by To get complete copy of slides text “AI” to 345345 To buy an autographed book, visit: signedcopy.co/aibook The arrival of AI Driven by 2 AI superpowers

Editor's Notes

  • 1、CB Insights2018年AI報告顯示,在對AI初創公司的資助上,中國已經超越美國成為世界第一大國。2017年中國占全球人工智慧啟動資金總額的48%,而美國僅為38%。
    2、人工智慧成為投資風口,AI公司不斷獲得高額融資,如:Face++獲得C輪4.6億美金融資,創下全球人工智慧領域最高融資記錄。
    2018年1月26日,第四範式宣佈獲得來自中國工商銀行、中國銀行、中國建設銀行等三家國有銀行及所屬基金的聯合戰略投資。
    2017年11月2日,追一科技獲得2060萬美元規模B輪融資。
  • 如果有更合適的照片,也可以引用,基本要搭配Notes裡面的描述

    回到AI的主題,我們跟AI最大的差別就是我們有愛。雖然你們看到科幻電影裡面的AI有愛,但是那是虛構的。我可以負責任地告訴你,AI程式沒有愛的能力,他們甚至沒有任何感受或自我意識。AlphaGo擊敗了柯潔,但是AlphaGo下棋沒有任何樂趣,贏棋感覺不到一絲快感,贏了之後也沒有擁抱它愛的人的慾望。AI是冷冰冰的。 將來,即使AI診斷工具比醫生精準10倍,病人不會想要從AI機器人那裡聽到一個冷冰冰的診斷說:「你得了第四期淋巴癌,5年內有70%的死亡率。」病人會想要一位願意聆聽我們病痛、鼓勵我們的「愛心醫生」說:「李開復也得過同樣的淋巴癌,經過治療後現在很健康,所以你也要加油。」在AI分擔了繁重的理性工作後,醫生終於有時間到家裡去探病,有時間和我們說話。這種愛心醫生不僅使我們感覺更人性,更有信心,而且也會產生安慰劑效應,增加病人康復的幾率。 這有可能解決我前面提到AI取代人類工作的問題。「愛心醫生」的人數將超過現在的醫生人數。失去工作的人可以去做傳播愛和分享經驗的服務業,無論是做熱情的導遊、貼心的飯店禮賓人員,或是風趣的調酒師。有了這類全新的「愛心服務專家」職位,將會創造出許多新的人情味服務業工作。它們不一定是「職業」,也可以是在孤兒院或養老院的志工類工作。我回到台灣居住的這段時間,多次被台灣的志工打動。我在佛光山、慈濟、甚至圖書館、區公所,都經常碰到彬彬有禮,充滿人情味,有感染力,而且永遠帶著笑容的志工。我相信台灣的志工精神,可以感染世界,可以讓更多人找到AI無法取代的服務業工作。這不但能帶給人自我實現的自豪感和滿足感。更重要的是,這會讓我們的地球充滿愛與歡樂。
  • AI will liberate us from routine work, and push us into thinking what makes us human.

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