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Future of broadband in Malaysia

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Technology Talk to UTHM …

Technology Talk to UTHM
Dec. 4, 2013

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  • 1. Future of Broadband in Malaysia Presentation by: Dr. Mazlan Abbas Technology Seminar – UTHM Dec. 4, 2013
  • 2. + Summary n  Introduction to the Malaysian Broadband n  DNA - The Key Drivers n  The Technology Trends n  Summary
  • 3. + The Birth of Internet in Malaysia 2012 17,700,000 Users / 29M Population 1995 25,000 Users / 20M Population JARING Introduced Malaysian Internet with 25 Subscribers
  • 4. + Cellular Broadband [Source: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Internet_in_Malaysia ]
  • 5. + Digital Subscriber Line (DSL) 1.  2.  3.  4.  ADSL – Asymmetric Digital Subscriber Line VDSL – Very high bit rate Digital Subscriber Line SDSL – Symmetric Digital Subscriber Line ETTH – Ethernet to the Home [Source: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Internet_in_Malaysia ]
  • 6. + DSL Technology Options
  • 7. + DSL Speed vs Distance
  • 8. + Fibre [Source: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Internet_in_Malaysia ]
  • 9. + Wireless Broadband [Source: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Internet_in_Malaysia ]
  • 10. + Hotspot [Source: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Internet_in_Malaysia ]
  • 11. + n  Overview 3G Service n  n  82% pop coverage [June 2012] 41.1 M n  n  141.6% per pop [Dec. 2012] Cellular coverage at populated areas n  n  n  96.8% [Dec. 2012] Internet users n  17.7 M [June 2012] n  3.3 M [Jan. 2013] Broadband subscriptions n  Cellular phone subscriptions n  Mobile broadband subscriptions n  14.6 M subscriptions [Dec. 2012] n  n  6.2 M [Jan. 2013] In 2013, our digital eco-system will welcome two new service, Hybrid TV – Digital Terrestrial TV with Internet and Mobile 4G-LTE
  • 12. + Evolution of Wireless Technologies
  • 13. National Broadband Initiative In 2005, Malaysia targets 50% Broadband Household Penetration by 2010 Growth: 10.6% (2006) to 53.5% (Oct. 2010) Target: 75% (2015)
  • 14. + Global Innovation Index - Ranking Country 2008-2009 Rank Country 2009-2010 Rank USA 5.28 1 Iceland 4.86 1 Germany 4.99 2 Sweden 4.85 2 UK 4.84 3 Hong Kong 4.83 3 Sweden 4.82 4 Switzerland 4.82 4 Singapore 4.81 5 Denmark 4.72 5 South Korea 4.73 6 Finland 4.66 6 Switzerland 4.73 7 Singapore 4.65 7 Denmark 4.69 8 Netherlands 4.62 8 Japan 4.65 9 4.60 9 Netherlands 4.64 10 New Zealand Canada 4.63 11 Norway 4.59 10 Hong Kong 4.59 12 USA 4.57 11 Finland 4.57 13 Canada 4.55 12 … … … Japan 4.50 13 Malaysia 4.06 25 … … … Malaysia 3.77 28
  • 15. + Human Capacity - Researchers
  • 16. + Importance of ICT Communications -> Information -> Knowledge -> Power
  • 17. + What is Innovation? invention, which usually requires a flash of inspiration, innovation is a process of coordinated activities that, when linked Unlike with identified opportunities, generates new value for the organisation and the customer.
  • 18. + Prime Minister introduced 4 strategic thrusts to transform Malaysia towards Vision 2020
  • 19. + New Economic Model (NEM)as a framework to begin our journey
  • 20. +
  • 21. + USD NKEA will boost our Gross National Income (GNI) by 15,000 RM 48,000 Per capita 2020 A National Key Economic Activities (NKEA) is a driver of economic activity that has the potential to directly and materially contribute a quantifiable amount of economic growth to the Malaysian economy USD 6,700 RM 23,770 Per capita [Source: PEMANDU http://www.pemandu.gov.my/]
  • 22. + 12 NKEAs [Sumber: PEMANDU http://www.pemandu.gov.my/]
  • 23. + CCI - 10 EPPs covering 3 major categories Serving Tomorrow ! (Platform, Applications, Content)! 1a ! MY Creative Content ! Pushing Boundaries ! (Industries Enablement) " 2a ! Local content hub to vitalise creative sector, reduce dependence on international connectivity, and export content! 1b ! 1MY Payment ! 2b ! E-Healthcare ! 2c ! E-Government ! Increasing the accessibility, speed, and transparency of government services through communications technology " 3b ! Extend Reach ! Acceleration and expansion of broadband coverage in non-urban areas (e.g. to Zone 2 and " Zone 3) " 3c ! 3d ! [Source: PEMANDU http://www.pemandu.gov.my/] Broadband for All ! Establishing broadband as an essential service to Malaysians on par with other utilities, e.g. water and electricity " Networked healthcare providers to each other and to their patients to improve productivity and information management " Connecting 1MY ! Next-generation services to provide ubiquitous connectivity and compelling services for the Rakyat at home, in the workplace," and ‘on-the" move’ " 3a ! Integrated approach to provide access, devices, and platforms/content/ applications to benefit the learning" Rakyat " Common standards, platforms and security protocols to cashless payment to masses in Malaysia " 1c ! E-Learning ! Enhancing Foundation ! (Next Generation Infrastructure)! Smart Network ! Differentiated pricing to provide higher quality and more affordable service" Regional Network ! Capacity increase of Malaysia’s submarine cable network to lower international IP connectivity costs "
  • 24. + Setting the Objectives - Challenges 50% 4,500 6,000 Medical institutions connected (50% of total) schools connected (60% of total) RM320 million (USD100 Million) Additional revenue from export of creative content [Sumber: PEMANDU http://www.pemandu.gov.my/] 700,000 Of services online (including school registrations and transfers, business permits and licenses. Non-urban broadband users (Additional 2.1 Mil premises passed and 2,000 wireless sites) 150,000 6 million Users on Internet and mobile payments Additional fixed broadband subscribers 860,000 Additional wireless broadband subscribers
  • 25. + Enhancing Foundation (Next Generation Infrastructure) [Sumber: PEMANDU http://www.pemandu.gov.my/]
  • 26. + Extend Reach - Deployment Challenges [Sumber: PEMANDU http://www.pemandu.gov.my/]
  • 27. + B R I D G I N G THE DIGITAL DIVIDE Broadband – The Malaysian Approach
  • 28. + Rural Subscriber Present an Unlocked Potential Close to 3.4 Billion people live in Rural Area (World population 6.7 Billion) In Africa about 70% and in Asia 60% Often there is NO communications service available Characteristics of a potential village subscriber •  Income less than USD 3 per day •  Awareness and education level is low •  Lack of basic infrastructure such as power, roads, etc
  • 29. + Zones Distribution  Area   Zone  1   Technology   Choice   FTTH,  ETTH,  VDSL,  HSPA+,   13,318,703   WiMAX   Popula+on   Zone  2   ADSL2+,  HSPA+,  WiMAX   Zone  3   8,911,813   ADSL,  HSDPA,  WiMAX,  etc   Total   To-date: 53.5 % (Oct, 2010) 5,499,180   27,729,696   Zone 1&2 : Broadband for General Population (BBGP) •  Medium Impact Area (> 384 kbps < 2 Mbps) Zone 1 : High Speed Broadband (HSBB) •  High Impact Area (>10Mbps) •  Target to cover 50% of household Zone 1 Zone 3 : Universal Service Provision (USP) •  Telephone and Broadband (384 kbps) •  Less than 80 people in 1 square km •  Operators Contribution Zone 2 Zone 3
  • 30. + Understanding the Bridging Digital Divide Socio-economic value of ICTs (BDD) Gap •  Poor Value realization due to Insufficient value creating content Social & economic impact of ICTs 3 Value gap Intensity of ICT adoption 2 Adoption gap Diffusion of ICT infrastructure •  Barrier to entry due to literacy level and language •  Complexity of Computers 1 Access gap •  Connectivity •  Devices •  High cost of Infrastructure deployment Knowledge comes from information Time Information is Power
  • 31. + Digital Natives - Webciety “We create the Internet” Create “We use the Internet” Use “We live and breathe in the Internet” Live
  • 32. + Screen Evolution 5th Screen Tablet 1st Screen Cinema Digital 4 2 Native Screen Screen th nd 3rd Screen Smartphone Computer Television
  • 33. + 4G (LTE)
  • 34. + Key Drivers of Broadband
  • 35. + Driver #1 MOBILE
  • 36. + Future Wireless Access – Key Challenges
  • 37. Data Tsunami is coming •  Currently an exponential growth of mobile data is observed* •  More advanced devices with more capabilities (smartphones, tablets, etc), as well as increased importance of machine generated data result in increased traffic generation •  Multi-device ownership, resulting in synchronization of data between devices •  Mobile Social Networking and User Generated Contents * The data amount is doubling annually resulting in 1000× increase in the current decade, for the individual devices this means performance will increase 100×
  • 38. + It’s Happening Fast ! Subscribers (MM) First 20 Quarters Since Launch 100 80 Mobile Internet 60 40 Desktop Internet 20 0 Q1 Q3 Q5 Q7 Q9 Q11 Q13 Q15 Q17 Q19 Quarters Since Launch Note AOL subscribers data not available before CQ3:94; Netscape users limited to US only. Source: Morgan Stanley Research Estimates, April 2010
  • 39. + The Trend is Irreversible Global Mobile vs. Desktop Internet User Projection, 2007 – 2015E Internet Users(MM) 2,000 1,600 Desktop Internet Users 1,200 Mobile Internet Users 800 400 0 2007E 2008E 2009E 2010E 2011E 2012E 2013E Source: Morgan Stanley Research Estimates, April 2010 2014E 2015E
  • 40. + Annual global IP traffic will surpass the zettabyte threshold (1.4 zettabytes) by the End of 2017
  • 41. + Global IP traffic has increased more than fourfold in the past 5 years, and will increase threefold over the next 5 years.
  • 42. + Content Delivery Networks (CDNs) will carry over half of Internet traffic in 2017.
  • 43. + Nearly half of all IP traffic will originate with non-PC devices by 2017
  • 44. + Beyond Email. Beyond Voice 10GB 600 Average  data  usage  per  month   Concurrent  users  per  site     548GB Highest  user  consump4on  record    in  1  month   Over 57% Rich  Media  ac4vi4es  on  P1’s  network   1,700TB Average  monthly  network  traffic   [SOURCE: Michael Lai Keynote Speech, WiMAX Forum SEA Regional Focus Conference 2010]
  • 45. + Mobile Data Crunch AT&T's iPhone Mess The iPhone has swamped AT&T's data network and sparked a consumer rebellion. Cover Story February 3, 2010 A Network Optimized for Mobile Voice Cannot Handle High Numbers of Mobile Internet Users KDDI Confirms LTE Migration Plan But Will Use WiMAX and WIFI too KDDI’s  President  and  Chairman,  Tadashi   Onodera  stated  at  GSMA  Mobile  Asia  Congress   2010.     TeleGeography  Comms   Update   Wed,  17  Nov  2010   LTE will not be sufficient to cope with such huge data demands so we also need to use other technologies such as WiMAX and WiFi Traffic Equivalents* 1 Laptop= 15 Smartphones = 450 Voice Handsets [ Source: Cisco, 2009]
  • 46. + Smartphones Unleashed
  • 47. Carry & Edit High-Performance Laptop UMPC Laptop DIGI-Cam TV UMPC UMD eBook Navigation UMPC View Creator Consumer Information Create + Device Ecosystem Navigation Modem In-Car Entertainment Fixed & In Vehicle Gateway Briefcase Game PMP Handbag Backpack Portability / Mobility 47 Dual Mode Handset PMP MP3 Player Palm Pocket
  • 48. + The Habits of Online Newspaper Readers [http://online.wsj.com]
  • 49. + User Interface Transformation
  • 50. + What’s the Next UI? Leap Motion Air Gesture Moto-X Touchless Control
  • 51. + Driver #2 APPLICATIONS
  • 52. + Android Market Windows Marketplace App Store Verizon Media Store Telus Mobility App Store Blackberry App World Mobile App Stores Ovi Store Nokia PlayNow Arena – Sony Ericsson Symbian Apps Samsung App Store PocketGear App Store
  • 53. + Data ARPU increase Consumers increasingly want to access the same Internet content and services on their mobile phones that they can from fixed access/PCs
  • 54. + May 2011 Social Media
  • 55. + Impact of Facebook
  • 56. + Impact of Twitter
  • 57. + Impact of YouTube 800 Million+ Monthly Unique Visitors •  That’s more than the entire population of Europe! 72 Hours+ Video Uploaded Per Minute •  That’s over a decade of content every day! 4 Billion Hours of Video Viewed Each Month •  That’s over 450,000 years of video viewed each month!
  • 58. + The Social Media Effect User Generated Contents
  • 59. + Driver #3 NETWORKS
  • 60. + Which is More Superior? Never Ending Battle for “Networks Superiority”
  • 61. + The Future is Heterogeneous Technology GSM, HSPA, LTE, WiFi Spectrum Deployment Macro – Outdoor Micro / Pico - Indoor 3G WiFi LTE
  • 62. + Key Challenges
  • 63. + The Mobile Internet Creating New Challenges For Carriers Devices/Users 1,000,000 Gbytes Mobile Internet Mobile Internet Capacity 14 Capacity   Demand   12 100,000 Desktop Internet 10,000 1000 PC 100 +1B Minicomputer 10 Mainframe 1 10 10B+ Connected Devices +100M +10M 1970 1980 6 Capacity     Supply   4 2 +1M 1960 8 1990 2000 2010 2020 Source: Morgan Stanley Mobile Internet Report Dec ‘09 0 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Source: Rysavy Research Feb;10 2015 2016
  • 64. + Traffic Grows Explosively But Not the Revenue Mobile data traffic will increase 1000 times in 10 years Profit per bit will continuously decrease in the future years
  • 65. + The Changing World of Mobile Internet Disruptive Transformation Bandwidth “Pipe Provider” Applications “Value-Added Provider” •  Higher quality-of-experience •  Higher sessions and session rates •  New monetization models
  • 66. + The Future of Broadband in Malaysia n  How do we close the Digital Gap? n  How do we leverage Broadband to innovate? n  How do we achieve Vision 2020?
  • 67. + THANK YOU EMAIL: mazlan@gmail.com TWITTER: mazlan_abbas FACEBOOK: www.facebook.com/drmazlanabbas LINKEDIN: my.linkedin.com/in/mazlan/ SLIDESHARE: www.slideshare.net/mazlan1