Technology Talk to UTHM Dec. 4, 2013

1. Future of Broadband in Malaysia
Presentation by: Dr. Mazlan Abbas
Technology Seminar – UTHM Dec. 4, 2013

2. +
Summary
n
Introduction to the Malaysian Broadband
n
DNA - The Key Drivers
n
The Technology Trends
n
Summary

3. + The Birth of Internet in Malaysia
2012
17,700,000 Users / 29M Population
1995
25,000 Users / 20M Population
JARING
Introduced Malaysian Internet with 25 Subscribers

4. + Cellular Broadband
[Source: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Internet_in_Malaysia ]

5. + Digital Subscriber Line (DSL)
1.
2.
3.
4.
ADSL – Asymmetric Digital Subscriber Line
VDSL – Very high bit rate Digital Subscriber Line
SDSL – Symmetric Digital Subscriber Line
ETTH – Ethernet to the Home
[Source: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Internet_in_Malaysia ]

6. + DSL Technology Options

7. + DSL Speed vs Distance

8. + Fibre
[Source: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Internet_in_Malaysia ]

9. + Wireless Broadband
[Source: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Internet_in_Malaysia ]

10. + Hotspot
[Source: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Internet_in_Malaysia ]

11. +
n
Overview
3G Service
n
n
82% pop coverage [June 2012]
41.1 M
n
n
141.6% per pop [Dec. 2012]
Cellular coverage at populated areas
n
n
n
96.8% [Dec. 2012]
Internet users
n
17.7 M [June 2012]
n
3.3 M [Jan. 2013]
Broadband subscriptions
n
Cellular phone subscriptions
n
Mobile broadband subscriptions
n
14.6 M subscriptions [Dec. 2012]
n
n
6.2 M [Jan. 2013]
In 2013, our digital eco-system will
welcome two new service, Hybrid TV –
Digital Terrestrial TV with Internet and
Mobile 4G-LTE

12. +
Evolution of Wireless Technologies

13. National Broadband Initiative
In 2005, Malaysia targets
50% Broadband Household Penetration by 2010
Growth:
10.6% (2006) to 53.5% (Oct. 2010)
Target:
75% (2015)

14. + Global Innovation Index - Ranking
Country
2008-2009
Rank
Country
2009-2010
Rank
USA
5.28
1
Iceland
4.86
1
Germany
4.99
2
Sweden
4.85
2
UK
4.84
3
Hong Kong
4.83
3
Sweden
4.82
4
Switzerland
4.82
4
Singapore
4.81
5
Denmark
4.72
5
South Korea
4.73
6
Finland
4.66
6
Switzerland
4.73
7
Singapore
4.65
7
Denmark
4.69
8
Netherlands
4.62
8
Japan
4.65
9
4.60
9
Netherlands
4.64
10
New
Zealand
Canada
4.63
11
Norway
4.59
10
Hong Kong
4.59
12
USA
4.57
11
Finland
4.57
13
Canada
4.55
12
…
…
…
Japan
4.50
13
Malaysia
4.06
25
…
…
…
Malaysia
3.77
28

15. + Human Capacity - Researchers

16. + Importance of ICT
Communications -> Information -> Knowledge -> Power

17. + What is Innovation?
invention, which usually requires a flash of inspiration,
innovation is a process of coordinated activities that, when linked
Unlike
with identified opportunities, generates new value for the organisation and
the customer.

18. +
Prime Minister
introduced 4 strategic
thrusts to transform
Malaysia towards Vision
2020

19. +
New Economic Model
(NEM)as a framework to
begin our
journey

20. +

21. +
USD
NKEA will boost
our Gross
National
Income (GNI) by
15,000
RM
48,000
Per capita
2020
A National Key Economic Activities (NKEA)
is a driver of economic activity that has the
potential to directly and materially contribute a
quantifiable amount of economic growth to the
Malaysian economy
USD 6,700
RM 23,770
Per capita
[Source: PEMANDU http://www.pemandu.gov.my/]

22. +
12 NKEAs
[Sumber: PEMANDU http://www.pemandu.gov.my/]

23. + CCI - 10 EPPs covering 3 major categories
Serving Tomorrow
!
(Platform, Applications, Content)!
1a
!
MY Creative Content
!
Pushing Boundaries
!
(Industries Enablement)
"
2a
!
Local content hub to
vitalise creative sector,
reduce dependence on
international connectivity,
and export content!
1b
!
1MY Payment
!
2b
!
E-Healthcare
!
2c
!
E-Government
!
Increasing the
accessibility, speed, and
transparency of
government services
through communications
technology
"
3b
!
Extend Reach
!
Acceleration and
expansion of broadband
coverage in non-urban
areas (e.g. to Zone 2
and
"
Zone 3)
"
3c
!
3d
!
[Source: PEMANDU http://www.pemandu.gov.my/]
Broadband for All
!
Establishing broadband
as an essential service
to Malaysians on par
with other utilities, e.g.
water and electricity
"
Networked healthcare
providers to each other
and to their patients to
improve productivity and
information
management
"
Connecting 1MY
!
Next-generation
services to provide
ubiquitous connectivity
and compelling services
for the Rakyat at home,
in the workplace,"
and ‘on-the"
move’
"
3a
!
Integrated approach to
provide access, devices,
and platforms/content/
applications to benefit
the learning"
Rakyat
"
Common standards,
platforms and security
protocols to cashless
payment to masses in
Malaysia
"
1c
!
E-Learning
!
Enhancing Foundation
!
(Next Generation Infrastructure)!
Smart Network
!
Differentiated pricing to
provide higher quality
and more affordable
service"
Regional Network
!
Capacity increase of
Malaysia’s submarine cable
network to lower
international IP connectivity
costs
"

24. + Setting the Objectives - Challenges
50%
4,500
6,000
Medical
institutions
connected
(50% of total)
schools
connected
(60% of total)
RM320
million
(USD100 Million)
Additional
revenue from
export of
creative content
[Sumber: PEMANDU http://www.pemandu.gov.my/]
700,000
Of services
online
(including
school
registrations
and transfers,
business
permits and
licenses.
Non-urban
broadband
users
(Additional 2.1
Mil premises
passed and
2,000 wireless
sites)
150,000
6 million
Users on
Internet and
mobile
payments
Additional fixed
broadband
subscribers
860,000
Additional
wireless
broadband
subscribers

25. + Enhancing Foundation
(Next Generation Infrastructure)
[Sumber: PEMANDU http://www.pemandu.gov.my/]

26. + Extend Reach - Deployment
Challenges
[Sumber: PEMANDU http://www.pemandu.gov.my/]

27. +
B R I D G I N G
THE DIGITAL
DIVIDE
Broadband – The Malaysian
Approach

28. + Rural Subscriber Present an
Unlocked Potential
Close to 3.4 Billion people live in Rural Area (World
population 6.7 Billion)
In Africa about 70% and in Asia 60%
Often there is NO communications service available
Characteristics of a potential village subscriber
• Income less than USD 3 per day
• Awareness and education level is low
• Lack of basic infrastructure such as power, roads, etc

29. + Zones Distribution
Area
Zone
1
Technology
Choice
FTTH,
ETTH,
VDSL,
HSPA+,
13,318,703
WiMAX
Popula+on
Zone
2
ADSL2+,
HSPA+,
WiMAX
Zone
3
8,911,813
ADSL,
HSDPA,
WiMAX,
etc
Total
To-date: 53.5 % (Oct, 2010)
5,499,180
27,729,696
Zone 1&2 : Broadband for General
Population (BBGP)
• Medium Impact Area (> 384 kbps < 2 Mbps)
Zone 1 : High Speed Broadband
(HSBB)
• High Impact Area (>10Mbps)
• Target to cover 50% of household
Zone 1
Zone 3 : Universal Service Provision (USP)
• Telephone and Broadband (384 kbps)
• Less than 80 people in 1 square km
• Operators Contribution
Zone 2
Zone 3

30. + Understanding the Bridging Digital Divide
Socio-economic value of ICTs
(BDD) Gap
• Poor Value
realization due to
Insufficient value
creating content
Social & economic
impact of ICTs
3
Value gap
Intensity of
ICT adoption
2
Adoption gap
Diffusion of
ICT infrastructure
• Barrier to entry
due to literacy
level and
language
• Complexity of
Computers
1
Access gap
• Connectivity
• Devices
• High cost of
Infrastructure
deployment
Knowledge comes from information
Time
Information is Power

31. + Digital Natives - Webciety
“We create the Internet”
Create
“We use the Internet”
Use
“We live and
breathe in the
Internet”
Live

32. + Screen Evolution
5th
Screen
Tablet
1st
Screen
Cinema
Digital
4
2
Native Screen
Screen
th
nd
3rd
Screen
Smartphone
Computer
Television

33. +
4G (LTE)

34. +
Key Drivers
of
Broadband

35. +
Driver #1
MOBILE

36. +
Future Wireless Access – Key
Challenges

37. Data Tsunami is coming
• Currently an exponential growth of mobile data is observed*
• More advanced devices with more capabilities
(smartphones, tablets, etc), as well as increased
importance of machine generated data result in increased traffic
generation
• Multi-device ownership, resulting in synchronization of data
between devices
• Mobile Social Networking and User Generated Contents
* The data amount is doubling annually resulting in 1000× increase in the current decade, for the individual devices this means
performance will increase 100×

38. + It’s Happening Fast !
Subscribers (MM)
First 20 Quarters Since Launch
100
80
Mobile Internet
60
40
Desktop Internet
20
0
Q1
Q3
Q5
Q7
Q9
Q11
Q13
Q15
Q17
Q19
Quarters Since Launch
Note AOL subscribers data not available before CQ3:94; Netscape users limited to US only. Source: Morgan Stanley Research Estimates, April 2010

39. + The Trend is Irreversible
Global Mobile vs. Desktop Internet User Projection, 2007 – 2015E
Internet Users(MM)
2,000
1,600
Desktop Internet Users
1,200
Mobile Internet Users
800
400
0
2007E
2008E
2009E
2010E
2011E
2012E
2013E
Source: Morgan Stanley Research Estimates, April 2010
2014E
2015E

40. +
Annual global IP traffic will surpass the
zettabyte threshold (1.4 zettabytes) by the
End of 2017

41. +
Global IP traffic has increased more than fourfold in
the past 5 years, and will increase threefold over
the next 5 years.

42. +
Content Delivery Networks (CDNs) will
carry over half of Internet traffic in 2017.

43. +
Nearly half of all IP traffic will originate
with non-PC devices by 2017

44. + Beyond Email. Beyond Voice
10GB
600
Average
data
usage
per
month
Concurrent
users
per
site
548GB
Highest
user
consump4on
record
in
1
month
Over
57%
Rich
Media
ac4vi4es
on
P1’s
network
1,700TB
Average
monthly
network
traffic
[SOURCE: Michael Lai Keynote Speech, WiMAX Forum SEA Regional Focus Conference 2010]

45. + Mobile Data Crunch
AT&T's iPhone Mess
The iPhone has swamped AT&T's
data network and sparked a
consumer rebellion.
Cover Story
February 3, 2010
A Network Optimized for Mobile Voice
Cannot Handle High Numbers of Mobile
Internet Users
KDDI Confirms LTE Migration Plan
But Will Use WiMAX and WIFI too
KDDI’s
President
and
Chairman,
Tadashi
Onodera
stated
at
GSMA
Mobile
Asia
Congress
2010.
TeleGeography
Comms
Update
Wed,
17
Nov
2010
LTE will not be sufficient to cope with such
huge data demands so we also need to use
other technologies such as WiMAX and WiFi
Traffic Equivalents*
1 Laptop= 15 Smartphones = 450 Voice Handsets
[ Source: Cisco, 2009]

46. + Smartphones Unleashed

47. Carry & Edit
High-Performance
Laptop
UMPC
Laptop
DIGI-Cam
TV
UMPC
UMD
eBook
Navigation
UMPC
View
Creator
Consumer
Information
Create
+ Device Ecosystem
Navigation
Modem
In-Car
Entertainment
Fixed &
In Vehicle
Gateway
Briefcase
Game
PMP
Handbag
Backpack
Portability / Mobility
47
Dual Mode
Handset
PMP
MP3
Player
Palm
Pocket

48. + The Habits of Online Newspaper
Readers
[http://online.wsj.com]

49. + User Interface Transformation

50. + What’s the Next UI?
Leap Motion Air Gesture
Moto-X Touchless Control

51. +
Driver #2
APPLICATIONS

52. +
Android Market
Windows
Marketplace
App Store
Verizon Media
Store
Telus Mobility
App Store
Blackberry App
World
Mobile
App Stores
Ovi Store Nokia
PlayNow Arena
– Sony Ericsson
Symbian Apps
Samsung App
Store
PocketGear
App Store

53. + Data ARPU increase
Consumers increasingly want to
access the same Internet
content and services on their
mobile phones that they can
from fixed access/PCs

54. +
May 2011
Social Media

55. + Impact of Facebook

56. + Impact of Twitter

57. + Impact of YouTube
800 Million+ Monthly Unique Visitors
• That’s more than the entire population of
Europe!
72 Hours+ Video Uploaded Per Minute
• That’s over a decade of content every day!
4 Billion Hours of Video Viewed Each
Month
• That’s over 450,000 years of video viewed each
month!

58. + The Social Media Effect
User
Generated
Contents

59. +
Driver #3
NETWORKS

60. + Which is More Superior?
Never Ending Battle for “Networks Superiority”

61. + The Future is Heterogeneous
Technology
GSM, HSPA,
LTE, WiFi
Spectrum
Deployment
Macro – Outdoor
Micro / Pico - Indoor
3G
WiFi
LTE

62. +
Key Challenges

63. + The Mobile Internet Creating New
Challenges For Carriers
Devices/Users
1,000,000
Gbytes
Mobile
Internet
Mobile Internet Capacity
14
Capacity
Demand
12
100,000
Desktop
Internet
10,000
1000
PC
100
+1B
Minicomputer
10 Mainframe
1
10
10B+
Connected
Devices
+100M
+10M
1970
1980
6
Capacity
Supply
4
2
+1M
1960
8
1990
2000
2010
2020
Source: Morgan Stanley Mobile Internet Report Dec ‘09
0
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
Source: Rysavy Research Feb;10
2015
2016

64. + Traffic Grows Explosively But Not
the Revenue
Mobile data traffic will increase
1000 times in 10 years
Profit per bit will continuously
decrease in the future years

65. + The Changing World of Mobile
Internet
Disruptive Transformation
Bandwidth
“Pipe Provider”
Applications
“Value-Added Provider”
• Higher quality-of-experience
• Higher sessions and session rates
• New monetization models

66. + The Future of Broadband in Malaysia
n
How do we close the Digital Gap?
n
How do we leverage Broadband to innovate?
n
How do we achieve Vision 2020?

67. +
THANK YOU
EMAIL: mazlan@gmail.com
TWITTER: mazlan_abbas
FACEBOOK: www.facebook.com/drmazlanabbas
LINKEDIN: my.linkedin.com/in/mazlan/
SLIDESHARE: www.slideshare.net/mazlan1