Anne Duputié | MEE 2013 | Modelling range shifts in dynamic environments – How can evolution enter the stage?
1. Anne Duputié – Models in Evolutionary Ecology – May 23rd, 2013
Modelling range shifts in dynamic environments –
How can evolution enter the stage?
Anne Duputié
CEFE, Montpellier
2. Anne Duputié – Models in Evolutionary Ecology – May 23rd, 2013 Parmesan et al. Nature 1999
Tircis
1940-69
1970-97
1915-39
- Migration
Responses to environmental changes (& lack thereof)
65% of 35 non migrating butterflies have
shifted their range northwards in <100 y
3. Anne Duputié – Models in Evolutionary Ecology – May 23rd, 2013 Zhu et al. GCB 2012
Northward shift
Southward shift
Expansion
Contraction
- Migration (or not)
Northernboundarychange(deglatitude)
Southern boundary change (deg latitude)
Responses to environmental changes (& lack thereof)
only 20% of 92 North American tree
species show a northward range shift
(59%: contraction)
4. Anne Duputié – Models in Evolutionary Ecology – May 23rd, 2013 Bradshaw & Holzapfel PNAS 2001
1940-69
1970-97
Latitude (corrected for altitude)
Wyeomyia smithii (photo S Gray)
- Migration (or not)
- Adaptation
Criticalphotoperiod(h)
Responses to environmental changes (& lack thereof)
Evolution of critical photoperiod for
entering into diapause (heritable trait,
h²=15-70%) within 25 years
5. Anne Duputié – Models in Evolutionary Ecology – May 23rd, 2013
- Migration (or not)
- Adaptation (or not)
. generation time
. no standing variance left
Responses to environmental changes (& lack thereof)
Drosphila birchii
Fragmented populations;
no available genetic variance to respond
to stress
Hoffmann et al Science 2003
6. Anne Duputié – Models in Evolutionary Ecology – May 23rd, 2013 Etterson & Shaw Science 2001
Chamaechrista
fasciculata
- Migration (or not)
- Adaptation (or not)
. generation time
. no standing variance left
. correlations among traits
Distribution of Chamaechrista fasciculata
Responses to environmental changes (& lack thereof)
7. Anne Duputié – Models in Evolutionary Ecology – May 23rd, 2013 Etterson & Shaw Science 2001
precocity
number of leaves
Responses to environmental changes (& lack thereof)
Chamaechrista
fasciculata
- Migration (or not)
- Adaptation (or not)
. generation time
. no standing variance left
. correlations among traits
Distribution of Chamaechrista fasciculata
8. Anne Duputié – Models in Evolutionary Ecology – May 23rd, 2013 Etterson & Shaw Science 2001
Future optimum
climate shift
by 2035
Responses to environmental changes (& lack thereof)
precocity
number of leaves
Chamaechrista
fasciculata
Distribution of Chamaechrista fasciculata
- Migration (or not)
- Adaptation (or not)
. generation time
. no standing variance left
. correlations among traits
9. Anne Duputié – Models in Evolutionary Ecology – May 23rd, 2013 Etterson & Shaw Science 2001
Future optimum
migrationclimate shift
by 2035
Responses to environmental changes (& lack thereof)
precocity
number of leaves
Chamaechrista
fasciculata
Distribution of Chamaechrista fasciculata
- Migration (or not)
- Adaptation (or not)
. generation time
. no standing variance left
. correlations among traits
10. Anne Duputié – Models in Evolutionary Ecology – May 23rd, 2013 Etterson & Shaw Science 2001
Future optimum
migration
Adaptation
(no migration)
climate shift
by 2035
Responses to environmental changes (& lack thereof)
precocity
number of leaves
Chamaechrista
fasciculata
Distribution of Chamaechrista fasciculata
- Migration (or not)
- Adaptation (or not)
. generation time
. no standing variance left
. correlations among traits
11. Anne Duputié – Models in Evolutionary Ecology – May 23rd, 2013 Etterson & Shaw Science 2001
Future optimum
climate shift
by 2035
Responses to environmental changes (& lack thereof)
precocity
number of leaves
Chamaechrista
fasciculata
Distribution of Chamaechrista fasciculata
- Migration (or not)
- Adaptation (or not)
. generation time
. no standing variance left
. correlations among traits
Phenotype distribution
12. Anne Duputié – Models in Evolutionary Ecology – May 23rd, 2013 Etterson & Shaw Science 2001
Future optimum
climate shift
by 2035
Responses to environmental changes (& lack thereof)
precocity
number of leaves
Chamaechrista
fasciculata
Distribution of Chamaechrista fasciculata
- Migration (or not)
- Adaptation (or not)
. generation time
. no standing variance left
. correlations among traits
Phenotype distribution
13. Anne Duputié – Models in Evolutionary Ecology – May 23rd, 2013 Etterson & Shaw Science 2001
Future optimum
climate shift
by 2035
Responses to environmental changes (& lack thereof)
precocity
number of leaves
Chamaechrista
fasciculata
Distribution of Chamaechrista fasciculata
- Migration (or not)
- Adaptation (or not)
. generation time
. no standing variance left
. correlations among traits
Phenotype distribution
14. Anne Duputié – Models in Evolutionary Ecology – May 23rd, 2013 Etterson & Shaw Science 2001
Future optimum
climate shift
by 2035
Responses to environmental changes (& lack thereof)
precocity
number of leaves
Chamaechrista
fasciculata
Distribution of Chamaechrista fasciculata
- Migration (or not)
- Adaptation (or not)
. generation time
. no standing variance left
. correlations among traits
Phenotype distribution
Correlations among traits
slow down evolution
15. Anne Duputié – Models in Evolutionary Ecology – May 23rd, 2013
Modelling species distributions
Observed occurrences
Observed/inferred density
Probability of occurrence
Habitat suitability
16. Anne Duputié – Models in Evolutionary Ecology – May 23rd, 2013
Modelling species distributions
Observed occurrences
Observed/inferred density
Probability of occurrence
Habitat suitability
17. Anne Duputié – Models in Evolutionary Ecology – May 23rd, 2013
Modelling species distributions
Example: Fagus sylvatica, European beech
18. Anne Duputié – Models in Evolutionary Ecology – May 23rd, 2013
Modelling species distributions
Example: Fagus sylvatica, European beech
19. Anne Duputié – Models in Evolutionary Ecology – May 23rd, 2013
Environment
Probability of occurrence
Tmax Tmin Prec GDD
…
Modelling species distributions
?
20. Anne Duputié – Models in Evolutionary Ecology – May 23rd, 2013
“Phenomenological”
Environment
Probability of occurrence
Tmax Tmin Prec GDD
…
Modelling species distributionsP(occurrence)
environment
“
21. Anne Duputié – Models in Evolutionary Ecology – May 23rd, 2013
“Phenomenological”
“Process-based”
Environment
Probability of occurrence
Traits:
reaction norms
Growth/
Survival…
(Fitness)
Tmax Tmin Prec GDD
…
Modelling species distributionsP(occurrence)
environment
Trait
environment
22. Anne Duputié – Models in Evolutionary Ecology – May 23rd, 2013
“Phenomenological”
“Process-based”
Environment
Probability of occurrence
Traits:
reaction norms
Growth/
Survival…
(Fitness)
“Conceptual”
Traits:
realised vs
optimum
Fitness
Tmax Tmin Prec GDD
…
Modelling species distributionsP(occurrence)
environment
Trait
environment
Fitness
Matching
trait/optimum
23. Anne Duputié – Models in Evolutionary Ecology – May 23rd, 2013
“Phenomenological”
“Process-based”
Environment
Probability of occurrence
Traits:
reaction norms
Growth/
Survival…
(Fitness)
“Conceptual”
Traits:
realised vs
optimum
Fitness
Ease of calibration
Understanding
Tmax Tmin Prec GDD
…
Modelling species distributionsP(occurrence)
environment
Trait
environment
Fitness
Matching
trait/optimum
Trait evolution
24. Anne Duputié – Models in Evolutionary Ecology – May 23rd, 2013
Genetic adaptation and distribution ranges
1. Constraints to adaptation ?
a conceptual model of trait adaptation on a shifting gradient
2. Evolution of trait reaction norms
a process-based model of tree distribution ranges
25. Anne Duputié – Models in Evolutionary Ecology – May 23rd, 2013
Factors limiting distribution ranges:
Topography
Biotic interactions
Demography
Adaptation
Migration
1. Responses to environmental changes: existing conceptual models
Brown AmNat 1974
Grinnell Auk 1917
Mimura & Aitken JEB 2009
« Fundamental » niche
Realised niche
Svenning & Skov EcolLett 2007
26. Anne Duputié – Models in Evolutionary Ecology – May 23rd, 2013
Factors limiting distribution ranges:
Topography
Biotic interactions
Demography
Adaptation
Migration
1. Responses to environmental changes: existing conceptual models
Brown AmNat 1974
Grinnell Auk 1917
Mimura & Aitken JEB 2009
« Fundamental » niche
Realised niche
Svenning & Skov EcolLett 2007
27. Anne Duputié – Models in Evolutionary Ecology – May 23rd, 2013
Breeder’s equation: R=h² S
Available genetic variance
Selection strength
1. Responses to environmental changes: existing conceptual models
Fitness
(intrinsicgrowthrater)
Mean trait z
Selection
gradient
Model:
- One species
- Quantitative trait evolves
28. Anne Duputié – Models in Evolutionary Ecology – May 23rd, 2013
Fitness
(intrinsicgrowthrater)
Mean trait z
Selection
gradient
Model:
- One species
- Quantitative trait evolves
- Environmental gradient
Fitness r
1. Responses to environmental changes: existing conceptual models
29. Anne Duputié – Models in Evolutionary Ecology – May 23rd, 2013
Model:
- One species
- Quantitative trait evolves
- Environmental gradient
- Variable population density
Fitness r
Space
Density
Coupling demography/adaptation
1. Responses to environmental changes: existing conceptual models
Coupling demography/adaptation
30. Anne Duputié – Models in Evolutionary Ecology – May 23rd, 2013
Model:
- One species
- Quantitative trait evolves
- Environmental gradient
- Variable population density
Fitness r
Space
Density
Coupling demography/adaptation
1. Responses to environmental changes: existing conceptual models
31. Anne Duputié – Models in Evolutionary Ecology – May 23rd, 2013
Some results of this type of models:
- No spatial heterogeneity:
Maximal speed of environmental change (Lynch & Lande 1993)
- Can be generalised to several traits (Gomulkiewicz & Houle AmNat 2009)
0 2
1
2
2 2
G G
c
S e S
V V
k k r
V N V
too little genetic variance
or too weak selection
low fecundity
small population
Extinction if:
1. Responses to environmental changes: existing conceptual models
32. Anne Duputié – Models in Evolutionary Ecology – May 23rd, 2013
Some results of this type of models:
- No spatial heterogeneity
- Spatial heterogeneity only (Kirkpatrick & Barton AmNat 1997)
1. Responses to environmental changes: existing conceptual models
Adaptation depends on VG and migration
Meantrait
optimum
realised
Space
33. Anne Duputié – Models in Evolutionary Ecology – May 23rd, 2013
1. Responses to environmental changes: existing conceptual models
Adaptation depends on VG and migration
Wider distribution for intermediate
migration rates
Space
MeantraitDensity
optimum
realised
Space
Some results of this type of models:
- No spatial heterogeneity
- Spatial heterogeneity only (Kirkpatrick & Barton AmNat 1997)
34. Anne Duputié – Models in Evolutionary Ecology – May 23rd, 2013
Some results of this type of models:
- No spatial heterogeneity
- Spatial heterogeneity only
- Spatial and temporal heterogeneity (Pease et al Ecology 1989)
1. Responses to environmental changes: existing conceptual models
Space
MeantraitDensity
optimum
realised
Space
35. Anne Duputié – Models in Evolutionary Ecology – May 23rd, 2013
Some results of this type of models:
- No spatial heterogeneity
- Spatial heterogeneity only
- Spatial and temporal heterogeneity (Pease et al Ecology 1989)
1. Responses to environmental changes: existing conceptual models
Space
MeantraitDensity
optimum
realised
Space
Clines move as the environment changes.
If persisting, the species shifts its range at
the speed of the environmental change,
with a lag.
36. Anne Duputié – Models in Evolutionary Ecology – May 23rd, 2013
Some results of this type of models:
- No spatial heterogeneity
- Spatial heterogeneity only
- Spatial and temporal heterogeneity
what about genetic constraints in
heterogeneous environments?
1. Responses to environmental changes: existing conceptual models
37. Anne Duputié – Models in Evolutionary Ecology – May 23rd, 2013 Duputié et al. EcolLett. 2012
1. Genetic correlations and range shifts: model ingredients
- One species
- Fitness depends on several traits under stabilizing selection: S
Trait1
Trait 2
Adaptive landscape
S
38. Anne Duputié – Models in Evolutionary Ecology – May 23rd, 2013 Duputié et al. EcolLett. 2012
1. Genetic correlations and range shifts: model ingredients
- One species
- Fitness depends on several traits under stabilizing selection: S
- Genetic variance: G
Trait1
Trait 2
Adaptive landscape
S
G
39. Anne Duputié – Models in Evolutionary Ecology – May 23rd, 2013 Duputié et al. EcolLett. 2012
1. Genetic correlations and range shifts: model ingredients
- One species
- Fitness depends on several traits under stabilizing selection: S
- Genetic variance: G
- Environmental gradient, slope b
Trait1
Trait 2
Adaptive landscape
S
G
b
Space
optimum 1
optimum 2
Traitmean
40. Anne Duputié – Models in Evolutionary Ecology – May 23rd, 2013 Duputié et al. EcolLett. 2012
- One species
- Fitness depends on several traits under stabilizing selection: S
- Genetic variance: G
- Environmental gradient, slope b
- Shifting at speed v
Trait1
Trait 2
Adaptive landscape
S
G
b
Space
optimum 1
optimum 2
Traitmean
1. Genetic correlations and range shifts: model ingredients
41. Anne Duputié – Models in Evolutionary Ecology – May 23rd, 2013 Duputié et al. EcolLett. 2012
- One species
- Fitness depends on several traits under stabilizing selection: S
- Genetic variance: G
- Environmental gradient, slope b
- Shifting at speed v
- Migration: density-dependent diffusion, σ
Trait1
Trait 2
Adaptive landscape
S
G
bσ
Space
Density
Space
optimum 1
optimum 2
Traitmean
1. Genetic correlations and range shifts: model ingredients
42. Anne Duputié – Models in Evolutionary Ecology – May 23rd, 2013 Duputié et al. EcolLett. 2012
- One species
- Fitness depends on several traits under stabilizing selection: S
- Genetic variance: G
- Environmental gradient, slope b
- Shifting at speed v
- Migration: density-dependent diffusion, σ
- Spatial selection gradient Sb
Trait1
Trait 2
Adaptive landscape
S
G
b
Sb
σ
Space
optimum 1
optimum 2
Traitmean
Space
Density
1. Genetic correlations and range shifts: model ingredients
43. Anne Duputié – Models in Evolutionary Ecology – May 23rd, 2013 Duputié et al. EcolLett. 2012
- One species
- Fitness depends on several traits under stabilizing selection: S
- Genetic variance: G
- Environmental gradient, slope b
- Shifting at speed v
- Migration: density-dependent diffusion, σ
- Spatial selection gradient Sb
- G, S, b assumed constant
Trait1
Trait 2
Adaptive landscape
S
G
b
Sb
σ
Space
optimum 1
optimum 2
TraitmeanDensity
Space
1. Genetic correlations and range shifts: model ingredients
44. Anne Duputié – Models in Evolutionary Ecology – May 23rd, 2013 Duputié et al. EcolLett. 2012
Trait1
Trait 2
Adaptive landscape
S
G
b
Sb
σ
Space
trait z optima
1. Genetic correlations and range shifts: results
45. Anne Duputié – Models in Evolutionary Ecology – May 23rd, 2013 Duputié et al. EcolLett. 2012
Trait1
Trait 2
Adaptive landscape
S
G
b
Sb
σ
Traits develop clines
Clines often flatter than optima
Space
trait z optima
realised
1. Genetic correlations and range shifts: results
46. Anne Duputié – Models in Evolutionary Ecology – May 23rd, 2013 Duputié et al. EcolLett. 2012
Trait1
Trait 2
Adaptive landscape
S
G
b
Sb
σ
Traits develop clines
Clines often flatter than optima
Population density is gaussian
Space
trait z optima
fitness r
Space
Space
density n
realised
1. Genetic correlations and range shifts: results
47. Anne Duputié – Models in Evolutionary Ecology – May 23rd, 2013 Duputié et al. EcolLett. 2012
Trait1
Trait 2
Adaptive landscape
S
G
b
Sb
σ
Traits develop clines, shifting across time
Clines often flatter than optima
Population density is gaussian
Population shifts
Space
trait z optima
fitness r
Space
Space
density n
realised
1. Genetic correlations and range shifts: results
48. Anne Duputié – Models in Evolutionary Ecology – May 23rd, 2013 Duputié et al. EcolLett. 2012
Trait1
Trait 2
Adaptive landscape
S
G
b
Sb
σ
Traits develop clines, shifting across time
Clines often flatter than optima
Population density is gaussian
Population shifts, with constant lag
Space
trait z optima
fitness r
Space
Space
density n
realised
Ln
1. Genetic correlations and range shifts: results
49. Anne Duputié – Models in Evolutionary Ecology – May 23rd, 2013 Duputié et al. EcolLett. 2012
Trait1
Trait 2
Adaptive landscape
S
G
b
Sb
σ
Traits develop clines, shifting across time
Clines often flatter than optima
Population density is gaussian
Population shifts, with constant lag
Space
trait z optima
fitness r
Space
Space
density n
realised
Ln
ρ
1. Genetic correlations and range shifts: results
50. Anne Duputié – Models in Evolutionary Ecology – May 23rd, 2013 Duputié et al. EcolLett. 2012
Trait1
Trait 2
Adaptive landscape
S
G
b
Sb
σ
Traits develop clines, shifting across time
Clines often flatter than optima
Population density is gaussian
Population shifts, with constant lag
Range width constant
Space
trait z optima
fitness r
Space
Space
density n
realised
Ln
ρ
Vn
1. Genetic correlations and range shifts: results
51. Anne Duputié – Models in Evolutionary Ecology – May 23rd, 2013 Duputié et al. EcolLett. 2012
Trait1
Trait 2
Adaptive landscape
S
G
b
Sb
Traits develop clines, shifting across time
Clines often flatter than optima
Population density is gaussian
Population shifts, with constant lag
Range width constant
Analytical expressions for adaptation &
demography.
Increase when:
Maximal adaptability A = bTS G Sb
G aligned with Sb
Minimal spatial fitness gradient B = bT S b
b aligned with S
1. Genetic correlations and range shifts: results
52. Anne Duputié – Models in Evolutionary Ecology – May 23rd, 2013 Duputié et al. EcolLett. 2012
Trait1
Trait 2
Adaptive landscape
S
b
Traits develop clines, shifting across time
Clines often flatter than optima
Population density is gaussian
Population shifts, with constant lag
Range width constant
Analytical expressions for adaptation &
demography.
Increase when:
Maximal adaptability A = bTS G Sb
G aligned with Sb
Minimal spatial fitness gradient B = bT S b
b aligned with S
1. Genetic correlations and range shifts: results
53. Anne Duputié – Models in Evolutionary Ecology – May 23rd, 2013 Duputié et al. EcolLett. 2012
0 2
2 2
c
B A
v r
B
Extinction if change faster than:
Low fecundity Maladapted
migrants
Not enough
adaptation
Slow migration
Tolerance to change:
1. Genetic correlations and range shifts: results
54. Anne Duputié – Models in Evolutionary Ecology – May 23rd, 2013 Duputié et al. EcolLett. 2012
1. Genetic correlations and range shifts: results
Hinders adaptation Widens range
diffusion σ
Rangewidth
diffusion σ
Criticalspeed
ofchange
Migration:
diffusion σ
Clineslopes
Maximal tolerance for
intermediate dispersal
+ =
0 2
2 2
c
B A
v r
B
Extinction if change faster than:
Low fecundity Maladapted
migrants
Not enough
adaptation
Slow migration
Tolerance to change:
55. Anne Duputié – Models in Evolutionary Ecology – May 23rd, 2013 Duputié et al. EcolLett. 2012
Adaptation to change easier when
- genetic variance available in the direction of the (spatial) selection gradient
- optimum changes in a direction under weak stabilising selection.
Counter gradients may appear due to genetic correlations/correlational
selection
The more traits, the more persistence is threatened.
1. Genetic correlations and range shifts: wrap-up
56. Anne Duputié – Models in Evolutionary Ecology – May 23rd, 2013
Fixed genetic variance
Fixed, diffusive dispersal
Constrained fitness function
No phenotypic plasticity
Linear gradients shifting at constant speed
1. BUT…
57. Anne Duputié – Models in Evolutionary Ecology – May 23rd, 2013
Fixed genetic variance
Fixed, diffusive dispersal
Constrained fitness function
No phenotypic plasticity
Linear gradients shifting at constant speed
Burrows et al. Science 2011
Williams et al PNAS 2007
Non-analogous climates, B2 scenario
Projected temperature changes (°C/decade)
Spatial gradient (°C/km)
1. BUT…
58. Anne Duputié – Models in Evolutionary Ecology – May 23rd, 2013
Fixed genetic variance
Fixed, diffusive dispersal
Constrained fitness function
No phenotypic plasticity
Linear gradients shifting at constant speed
use a process-based model to:
- evaluate selective pressures
- take phenotypic plasticity into account
- explicitly model spatial heterogeneity
1. BUT…
59. Anne Duputié – Models in Evolutionary Ecology – May 23rd, 2013
Genetic adaptation and distribution ranges
1. Constraints to adaptation ?
a conceptual model of trait adaptation on a shifting gradient
2. Evolution of trait reaction norms
a process-based model of tree distribution ranges
60. Anne Duputié – Models in Evolutionary Ecology – May 23rd, 2013 Chuine & Beaubien EcolLett. 2001
2. Evolution of trait reaction norms: the model PHENOFIT
Fitness
Local climate
Phenological traits
ReproductionSurvival
Resistance traits
61. Anne Duputié – Models in Evolutionary Ecology – May 23rd, 2013 Chuine & Beaubien EcolLett. 2001
2. Evolution of trait reaction norms: the model PHENOFIT
Bud dormancy
Fitness
ReproductionSurvival
62. Anne Duputié – Models in Evolutionary Ecology – May 23rd, 2013 Chuine & Beaubien EcolLett. 2001
2. Evolution of trait reaction norms: the model PHENOFIT
Bud dormancy
Leafing
Flowering
Fitness
ReproductionSurvival
63. Anne Duputié – Models in Evolutionary Ecology – May 23rd, 2013 Chuine & Beaubien EcolLett. 2001
2. Evolution of trait reaction norms: the model PHENOFIT
Bud dormancy
Leafing
Flowering
Fruit maturation
Fitness
ReproductionSurvival
64. Anne Duputié – Models in Evolutionary Ecology – May 23rd, 2013 Chuine & Beaubien EcolLett. 2001
2. Evolution of trait reaction norms: the model PHENOFIT
Bud dormancy
Leafing
Flowering
Fruit maturation
Leaf
senescence
Fitness
ReproductionSurvival
65. Anne Duputié – Models in Evolutionary Ecology – May 23rd, 2013 Chuine & Beaubien EcolLett. 2001
2. Evolution of trait reaction norms: the model PHENOFIT
FrostBud dormancy
Leafing
Flowering
Fruit maturation
Leaf
senescence
Fitness
ReproductionSurvival
66. Anne Duputié – Models in Evolutionary Ecology – May 23rd, 2013 Chuine & Beaubien EcolLett. 2001
2. Evolution of trait reaction norms: the model PHENOFIT
Frost
Drought
Bud dormancy
Leafing
Flowering
Fruit maturation
Leaf
senescence
Fitness
ReproductionSurvival
67. Anne Duputié – Models in Evolutionary Ecology – May 23rd, 2013 Chuine & Beaubien EcolLett. 2001
2. Evolution of trait reaction norms: the model PHENOFIT
Frost
Drought
Bud dormancy
Leafing
Flowering
Fruit maturation
Leaf
senescence
Fitness
ReproductionSurvival
68. Anne Duputié – Models in Evolutionary Ecology – May 23rd, 2013 Duputié et al. in prep
2. Evolution of trait reaction norms: calibrating the model
fructification
leafing + senescence
Using time series: phenology & climate
Leafingdate
observed
modelled
Year
Example: sessile oak Quercus petraea
69. Anne Duputié – Models in Evolutionary Ecology – May 23rd, 2013 Duputié et al. in prep
2. Evolution of trait reaction norms: validating the model
Presence / absence
Observed distribution Fitness simulated by
PHENOFIT (1980-2000)
Using observed distribution ranges
Example: sessile oak Quercus petraea
70. Anne Duputié – Models in Evolutionary Ecology – May 23rd, 2013 Duputié et al. in prep
2. Evolution of trait reaction norms: model extrapolations
1950-2000 50-year fecundity,
simulated by PHENOFIT
Under scenario A1Fi (“business as usual”)
Example: sessile oak Quercus petraea
71. Anne Duputié – Models in Evolutionary Ecology – May 23rd, 2013 Duputié et al. in prep
1990-2040
2. Evolution of trait reaction norms: model extrapolations
50-year fecundity,
simulated by PHENOFIT
Under scenario A1Fi (“business as usual”)
Example: sessile oak Quercus petraea
72. Anne Duputié – Models in Evolutionary Ecology – May 23rd, 2013 Duputié et al. in prep
2010-2060
2. Evolution of trait reaction norms: model extrapolations
50-year fecundity,
simulated by PHENOFIT
Under scenario A1Fi (“business as usual”)
Example: sessile oak Quercus petraea
73. Anne Duputié – Models in Evolutionary Ecology – May 23rd, 2013 Duputié et al. in prep
2030-2080
2. Evolution of trait reaction norms: model extrapolations
50-year fecundity,
simulated by PHENOFIT
Under scenario A1Fi (“business as usual”)
Example: sessile oak Quercus petraea
74. Anne Duputié – Models in Evolutionary Ecology – May 23rd, 2013 Duputié et al. in prep
2050-2100
2. Evolution of trait reaction norms: model extrapolations
50-year fecundity,
simulated by PHENOFIT
Under scenario A1Fi (“business as usual”)
Example: sessile oak Quercus petraea
75. Anne Duputié – Models in Evolutionary Ecology – May 23rd, 2013 Duputié et al. in prep
2. Evolution of trait reaction norms: determine selection gradients
« plastic » date
d=165
d=125
d=102
Method: impose event dates – e.g. leafing date.
76. Anne Duputié – Models in Evolutionary Ecology – May 23rd, 2013 Duputié et al. in prep
2. Evolution of trait reaction norms: determine selection gradients
« plastic » date
d=165
d=125
d=102
d=166
d=126
d=103
d=164
d=124
d=101
1plasticd d 1plasticd d
Method: impose event dates – e.g. leafing date.
77. Anne Duputié – Models in Evolutionary Ecology – May 23rd, 2013 Duputié et al. in prep
2. Evolution of trait reaction norms: determine selection gradients
« plastic » date
d=165
d=125
d=102
d=166
d=126
d=103
d=164
d=124
d=101
Fecundity
1plasticd d 1plasticd d
Method: impose event dates – e.g. leafing date.
78. Anne Duputié – Models in Evolutionary Ecology – May 23rd, 2013 Duputié et al. in prep
2. Evolution of trait reaction norms: determine selection gradients
« plastic » date
d=165
d=125
d=102
d=166
d=126
d=103
d=164
d=124
d=101
Fecundity
1plasticd d 1plasticd d
log fecundity
trait
Method: impose event dates – e.g. leafing date.
79. Anne Duputié – Models in Evolutionary Ecology – May 23rd, 2013 Duputié et al. in prep
2. Evolution of trait reaction norms: determine selection gradients
Sessile oak
Quercus petraea
European beech
Fagus sylvatica
Fecundity
Selection
gradient
2000
Fecundity:
high
low
Budburst selected
to occur:
later
earlier
80. Anne Duputié – Models in Evolutionary Ecology – May 23rd, 2013 Duputié et al. in prep
2020
Sessile oak
Quercus petraea
European beech
Fagus sylvatica
Fecundity:
high
low
Budburst selected
to occur:
later
earlier
Fecundity
Selection
gradient
2. Evolution of trait reaction norms: determine selection gradients
81. Anne Duputié – Models in Evolutionary Ecology – May 23rd, 2013 Duputié et al. in prep
2. Evolution of trait reaction norms: determine selection gradients
2040
Sessile oak
Quercus petraea
European beech
Fagus sylvatica
Fecundity
Selection
gradient
Fecundity:
high
low
Budburst selected
to occur:
later
earlier
82. Anne Duputié – Models in Evolutionary Ecology – May 23rd, 2013 Duputié et al. in prep
2. Evolution of trait reaction norms: determine selection gradients
2060
Sessile oak
Quercus petraea
European beech
Fagus sylvatica
Fecundity
Selection
gradient
Fecundity:
high
low
Budburst selected
to occur:
later
earlier
83. Anne Duputié – Models in Evolutionary Ecology – May 23rd, 2013 Duputié et al. in prep
2. Evolution of trait reaction norms: determine selection gradients
2080
Sessile oak
Quercus petraea
European beech
Fagus sylvatica
Fecundity
Selection
gradient
Fecundity:
high
low
Budburst selected
to occur:
later
earlier
84. Anne Duputié – Models in Evolutionary Ecology – May 23rd, 2013 Duputié et al. in prep
2. Evolution of trait reaction norms: determine selection gradients
Sessile oak
Quercus petraea
European beech
Fagus sylvatica
Fecundity
Selection
gradient
Fecundity:
high
low
Budburst selected
to occur:
later
earlier
2100
85. Anne Duputié – Models in Evolutionary Ecology – May 23rd, 2013 Duputié et al. in prep
2. Evolution of trait reaction norms: determine selection gradients
Temperature
Precipitations
Temperature
Selection for later budburst: western (warmer) part of the range
Sessile oak
Quercus petraea
European beech
Fagus sylvatica
Budburst selected
to occur:
later
earlier
In the climatic (niche) space:
86. Anne Duputié – Models in Evolutionary Ecology – May 23rd, 2013 Duputié et al. in prep
Budburst date (imposed)
Fecundity
Sessile oak
Quercus petraea
Jan 30 Mar 30 Jun 20
2. Evolution of trait reaction norms: why these patterns?
87. Anne Duputié – Models in Evolutionary Ecology – May 23rd, 2013 Duputié et al. in prep
Budburst date (imposed)
Fecundity
Sessile oak
Quercus petraea
Jan 30 Mar 30 Jun 20
frost damage
2. Evolution of trait reaction norms: why these patterns?
88. Anne Duputié – Models in Evolutionary Ecology – May 23rd, 2013 Duputié et al. in prep
insufficient time to
reach maturation
Budburst date (imposed)
Fecundity
Sessile oak
Quercus petraea
Jan 30 Mar 30 Jun 20
frost damage
2. Evolution of trait reaction norms: why these patterns?
89. Anne Duputié – Models in Evolutionary Ecology – May 23rd, 2013 Rutschmann et al. in prep
Method: suppress reaction norm phenology/local climate
Treatments:
plastic population
d=165
d=125
d=102
d=152
d=120
d=96
year1 year 2
200
160
120
80
Resistance
Fitness
Climate
Phenology
2. Evolution of trait reaction norms: where is plasticity beneficial?
90. Anne Duputié – Models in Evolutionary Ecology – May 23rd, 2013 Rutschmann et al. in prep
2. Evolution of trait reaction norms: where is plasticity beneficial?
Method: suppress reaction norm phenology/local climate
Treatments:
plastic population
no interannual plasticity
J=165
J=125
J=102
J=152
J=120
J=96
year1 year 2
200
160
120
80
d=145
d=125
d=102
d=145
d=125
d=102
Resistance
Fitness
Climate
Phenology
91. Anne Duputié – Models in Evolutionary Ecology – May 23rd, 2013 Rutschmann et al. in prep
2. Evolution of trait reaction norms: where is plasticity beneficial?
advantageous
burdensome
interannual
plasticity
precipitations
temperature
92. Anne Duputié – Models in Evolutionary Ecology – May 23rd, 2013 Rutschmann et al. in prep
Précipitations
Température
2. Evolution of trait reaction norms: where is plasticity beneficial?
advantageous
burdensome
interannual
plasticity
imposed budburst date
fecundity
93. Anne Duputié – Models in Evolutionary Ecology – May 23rd, 2013 Rutschmann et al. in prep
Précipitations
Température
2. Evolution of trait reaction norms: where is plasticity beneficial?
advantageous
burdensome
interannual
plasticity
imposed budburst date
fecundity
94. Anne Duputié – Models in Evolutionary Ecology – May 23rd, 2013 Rutschmann et al. in prep
Précipitations
Température
2. Evolution of trait reaction norms: where is plasticity beneficial?
advantageous
burdensome
interannual
plasticity
imposed budburst date
fecundity
95. Anne Duputié – Models in Evolutionary Ecology – May 23rd, 2013 Rutschmann et al. in prep
Précipitations
Température
2. Evolution of trait reaction norms: where is plasticity beneficial?
advantageous
burdensome
interannual
plasticity
imposed budburst date
fecundity
96. Anne Duputié – Models in Evolutionary Ecology – May 23rd, 2013
Wrap-up
Phenotypic plasticity may translate constraints
Interannual variability on budburst/senescence dates weakly
impacts fitness
+ long-distance gene flow e.g. Kremer et al. 2012
-> reaction norms selected at the scale of the range?
… except at range/niche margins
e.g. Pichancourt & van Klinken 2012
97. Anne Duputié – Models in Evolutionary Ecology – May 23rd, 2013
Perspectives
Selection gradients vary over space/time
weak response to climatic change?
Can the evolution of phenology mitigate projections
of range shifts in temperate trees?
Optimal reaction norm
Simulated fitness, t=later
98. Anne Duputié – Models in Evolutionary Ecology – May 23rd, 2013
Perspectives
Selection gradients vary over space/time
weak response to climatic change?
Can the evolution of phenology mitigate projections
of range shifts in temperate trees?
Optimal reaction norm
Simulated fitness, t=later
PhD project, O. Ronce/I. Chuine, ED SIBAGHE
response Gβ
99. Anne Duputié – Models in Evolutionary Ecology – May 23rd, 2013
Perspectives
Selection gradients vary over space/time
weak response to climatic change?
Can the evolution of phenology mitigate projections
of range shifts in temperate trees?
Optimal reaction norm
realised reaction norm
Simulated fitness, t=later
PhD project, O. Ronce/I. Chuine, ED SIBAGHE
response Gβ
100. Anne Duputié – Models in Evolutionary Ecology – May 23rd, 2013
Thanks!
Isabelle Chuine
François Massol Ophélie Ronce
Alexis Rutschmann
Mark Kirkpatrick