Mobile Trends 2020 Africa a collaborative outlook Curated by Erik Hersman, Ken Banks & Rudy De Waele Visualization by Steffen Becker Addtional slides by Jo Webber join the conversation: #KuyuGH #giveamanafish #africa2020
With 7 African countries in the top 10 of fastest growing economies in the world the coming 5 years (The Economist, Jan 6th 2011 - based on the latest IMF statistics), Africa is becoming one of the most interesting continents of economic growth this decade. Currently petroleum and other raw materials are still the main drivers but mobile technology is going to play a key role in the development.Mobile subscribers in African countries on average doubled every single year between 2002 and 2007 (in Europe it was on average 17%). Innovations in mobile technology in health, education, micropayments, renewable energy, agricultural ICT and social services on the continent may push some African countries in a leading role in some of these areas.Stability in African countries such as Angola, Mozambique, Nigeria, Ethiopia, Tanzania, Ghana, Rwanda, Zambia and the Republic of Congo creates a new investment climate. Through growth emerges a new middle class, stimulating entrepreneurship and leading to further innovations in many of these areas -- there is definitely something moving on the African continent.Join the conversation: #africa2020Enjoy! Rudy De Waele Entrepreneur, CNO dotopen.com @mtrends BY NC ND
Wolfgang Fengler World BankLead Economist for Kenya, Rwanda, Eritrea, Somalia http://blogs.worldbank.org/africacan/team/wolfgang-fengler http://blogs.worldbank.org/africacan/team/wolfgang-fengler
The total mobile revolution. The last decade has seen an astonishing growth in ICT in Africa. But we have just seen the tip of the iceberg. This growth will continue and new innovations will develop. The mobile revolution will reshape the way Africans interact among themselves and with the outside world. Mega cities. Africa is the most rapidly urbanizing continent in the world. Currently a third of Africans live in cities. In 10 years, half of Africa's 1.2 billion people will live in cities. On balance this is good news because it will accelerate innovation and create more economies of scale. Regional integration. Africa needs bigger markets and too many small states impede the growth of cities. Regional integration is the most powerful and promising response which has started to take hold, especially in East Africa. South South integration. Africa's greatest injection for higher growth will come from other emerging economies. Trade with BRIC countries has been growing exponentially and will continue to do so over the decade. This will reshape economic and political dynamics. Africa will look more East and West, and less North. Drifting apart. Although Africa as a whole will experience a strong decade of economic development, the continent will also drift apart. While several countries will catch up and become emerging economies, many will remain in disarray. Countries like Congo, Guinea and Somalia will remain the biggest global development challenge by the end of the next decade.
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Breakout #1 > 5 groups x7 including x1 presenter (15 minutes) > What do you use your mobile phone for? (drawings/words) > What features would you like to have on your mobile phone? > Why is a mobile phone so useful in Ghana/Africa?
Note: Zain sold their Africa operations to Bharti Airtel, so Zain is no more operating in Ghana. Also Kasapa has morphed into Expresso.
Breakout #2 > 5 groups x7 including x1 presenter (10 mins) > Based on the Google Insights for search data, what do you find interesting, is free browsing on the internet a key consideration? > Complete a brand presentation of your favourite mobile provider, what do you like? Or would you prefer to create your own brand/community?
Kennedy Kachwanya Co-Founder and CEO Maduqa.comBlog: www.kachwanya.com www.kachwanya.com
Banking will purely on mobile phones and Mobile phones to replace ATMs. The success of MPESA in Kenya is just the beginning. I see a future where banking halls will be deserted and ATMs obsolete. Mlearning. Africans have mobile phones, and kids also own devices… so why not use the channel to transmit knowledge. At the moment, getting one computer or laptop per child in Africa is not that easy but getting one Nokia lower-end phone per child is possible even in the most remote areas of the continent. I think mlearning will be both an affordable and realistic option for learning in most African countries. Mobile healthcare. New possibilities will include the use of SMS to track (and remind of) appointments as well as medication availability. Mobile apps will also enable data collection. In Kenya, mobile phones are already being used to fight counterfeit drugs. I also expect more smarter use of mobile phones to fight dangerous diseases MCommerce. In the next few years mcommerce will be everything in Africa. The fact that people trust the phones to be their banks means that soon they will start accepting the same phone to be the dominant mode of payment for the goods and services. Mobile-centric living. The trend is already forming where the mobile takes center stage for everything. With the expected expansion of Africa’s role with mobiles, the continent would be the center of innovation when it comes to mobile phones and all things related to them. Innovation would give users the chance to do everything via their mobile phone from payroll processing, office work, reading and sending of emails, getting the news, listening to music, playing games, etc... to critical issues like health.
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Eric Cantor Director, AppLab, Grameen Foundation applab.org applab.org
Ubuntuphone – sub-$100-smartphone and plummeting data prices will expand the capabilities of those who today find themselves on the wrong side of the digital divide, enabling the unconnected to connect more deeply Afroogle – the first wave of companies born, bred and built in the sub-Saharan Africa context will emerge with innovative technology solutions to African problems, doing it more efficiently than foreign competitors M-business – mobile will become deeply embedded in business, personal and government processes to the point that paper forms and manual processes go by the wayside and mobile money becomes the dominant form of financial exchange Consolidation – falling ARPUs in the core business will drive operational efficiencies, most of which will be realized through consolidation of mobile operators down to a few big ones.
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Will Mworia Founder, Afrinnovator.com@afrinnovator Founder, Afrinnovator.com@afrinnovator
Blurring boundary between smart and feature phone: More features lower cost/cost effective smartphones Exponential increase in mobile web access (especially for social engagement) bringing more of the African population online primarily via the mobile screen Mobile money shifts economies on a large scale, and across borders.Africa will be the home of the fastest, most modern mobile telecommunications infrastructure deployments Devices made in Africa: African startups that would take open source operating systems like Android and manufacturing mobile devices based on this. The trend is already starting in Nigeria where Nigerian companies are manufacturing tablet computers based on Android
The development of mobile applications that make women safer, both on the street and in their homes. No borders or boundaries: Development of mobile money payments within and across all African countries & the Diaspora. The use of mobiles to improve citizens’ lives, such as enhancing service delivery, monitoring corruption, and deepening respect for human rights. Voice over mobile to broaden access to information.An African “Don’t Use Your Mobile Day” to remind us all of the value of real time, personal connection.
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Breakout #3 > 5 groups x7 including x1 presenter (15 minutes) > Create your own mobile brand/community strategy. Choose your brand/community (all categories welcome) > Show the class how you would launch the brand/community (online promotion/physical event/fundraisers etc.) > What would type of message would you send to customers/community on their mobile devices?
Liva Judic Social media & mobile marketing for social good@merrybubbles Social media & mobile marketing for social good@merrybubbles
Operators + mobile social platforms >> Democracy facilitated by generalized access to information on mobiles. Deals between local carriers and platforms allowing free data connection like 0.facebook will help break isolation of small villages and spread information across the most remote territories. Location-based apps + mobile technology >> accessible healthcare. Mobile devices will be cheaper and more powerful. Healthcare practitioners will be able to send pictures of visual symptoms to the nearest bigger center for help/support when the cases in question are too complicated to be treated locally. Geolocation information will enable to pinpoint available doctors in closest area. Mobile gaming >> Education + socialization: the spreading of mobile gaming will enable the development of games dedicated to educate, at lower costs too. Interaction between distant users will foster socialization and open up small villages. The use of QR codes will enable the easy transfer of valuable personal data, including health files…
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Breakout #4 > 5 groups x7 including x1 presenter (5 minutes) > Create your own QR code based on your favourite mobile provider. Jo to present live demo.
Steve Vosloo Shuttleworth Foundation shuttleworthfoundation.org @stevevosloo @stevevosloo
There is 90% internet penetration in Africa, via widespread mobile data infrastructure. Mobile data is cheap, real cheap.The $10 smartphone is a hand-me-down device, in the hands of children. All phones are internet-enabled. Through widespread and cheap communications, small businesses and innovation flourish. Africa is enjoying a renaissance. mLearning plays a vital role in Africa's formal and informal education.
Android is starting to take off in Africa. Kenya has over 9 models in the market already and one model at at least around US$ 200.00 at retail. This should lead to uptake and growth which should drive local content. Also consider Samsung's Bada which has over 5 million handsets sold globally - where will Nokia be in a few years even as they dominate in Africa currently. Data is increasingly becoming a major area of mobile usage in Africa and especially in Kenya where more and more Internet users get online via the mobile web instead of the PC web. This trend will see a whole new market for mobile content and services across the board as 2G and 3G become widely available for the masses. Training and Skills - Academic institutions, mobile handset manufacturers, business, government and development organizations are partnering more and more to improve training and skills for the mobile market. This means that in the next few years, an increasing number of students and ICT professionals will be able to serve local and international needs. Mobile Money - Africa and Kenya in particular has taken leadership in Mobile Money. This trend will continue and will lead to innovations that could result in new ecosystems and business models built around the mobile phone. It is in fact already the case that Mobile Money in Kenya will be Africa's access point to participate in global e-commerce. Smartphones - the cost of highly capable smartphones is fast dropping and features are increasing commensurately. This in time will lead to users in Africa and Kenya abandoning entry-level feature phones as they start becoming connected to global digital services via their Smartphones.
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Valerie Itey Founder Mobile MendIt Worldwide@valitey Founder Mobile MendIt Worldwide@valitey
Doctors can not be everywhere with mobile technologies their knowledge will flow.Mobile computing will be in health cooperating cloud data services.Mobile will deliver expertise remotelyMobile text power will help health preventionReal time measurement will cut the gap between medical drugs provider and real demand.
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Breakout #5 > 5 groups x7 including x1 presenter (15 minutes) > Discuss mlearning and banking. How could internet/mobile banking be useful in your lives? What are the potential pros and cons? > Discuss mlearning and medicine. How could health professionals utilise mobile technology? What are the pros and cons?
Megabytes over Minutes: Operator price wars will be focused on price per MB rather than per minute.
Compensation as well as Communication: Phones won't be a device simply to communicate - they will be used as a mechanism for compensation.
Price Always Trumps Features: The most popular phones in the next decade will still be the cheapest.
Spectrum Wars: Operator licenses will continue to be a cash cow for local governments.
Nathan Eagle Co-founder and CEO at txteagle BY NC ND
David Risher Books for All worldreader.org @worldreaders
New devices like e-readers and advanced cell phones will play an enormous role in Africa’s development. Today there is an huge gap between those who have access to connected computers and everyone else. But new, low-power and highly connected devices like e-readers will fill the void between simple cell phones and advanced computers, providing access to information to millions.
African customers will no longer be satisfied with reduced-functionality or past-generation mobile devices. While there will always be room for low price-points in the developing world, the sophistication of African markets will demand latest-generation technology, and increased competition will drive both handset and data prices down for all.
Everything and everyone will be connected via the mobile phone network. In 10 years it will be impossible to buy an advanced electronic device that doesn’t communicate with other devices, keeping devices and people in synch with one another and providing information with which people can improve their lives.
Cards similar to mobile phone scratch-off cards will become the basis of micropayments for digital e-commerce in Africa, allowing digital products like e-books and downloadable music to be purchased using cash.
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Jacques van Niekerk CTO MIH Internet, CEO MIH SWAT@gustiblenaspers.com, mihswat.com
Within the next three years, cheap smartphones will be ubiquitous in Africa. Feature phones will largely be replaced by cheap, functional smartphones (probably manufactured in China) that run Android as an operating system. The cost of data on cellular networks will keep dropping , reaching the price of an everyday commodity. This will be driven by a combination of extreme price sensitivity and strong competition amongst operators and service providers. Within five years, the advent of ultra-efficient batteries will free the phone from the grid - energy for mobile devices will derive from environmental sources, and will effectively be "free". The independence from infrastructure will accelerate and democratise the adoption of high powered mobile devices. The Babelphone will address issues of illiteracy and unfamiliar user interfaces by its ability to interpret natural language - and to translate to other languages. It will be the first step in the evolution of the mobile device as an everyday tool that delivers expert system functionality to illiterate users. The killer apps in Africa will be mobile money, goverment services (census, polls, information), and ultimately the development of expert systems that use contextual data (geolocation, environment) to provide relevant services.
While cities internet connectivity is owned by the ISPs who control fiber, the mobile operators become the ISPs for rural Africa. Data enabled smartphones with real browsers costing around $50 will be taking hold in the next couple years across the leading tech countries in Africa, specifically Nigeria, South Africa, Kenya, Ghana. This trend will extend to the neighboring countries, and into the sub-urban and rural areas around cities where it set out from. The mobile web is the future. While app stores and device-dependent services will continue to proliferate in the next couple of years, both consumers and entrepreneurs will seek a way around walled gardens/proprietary systems. Such an aspiration can only be satisfied by the open source systems/OS. In the future both consumers and entrepreneurs seek decreased friction, which can only be provided by the open web. Digital money transactions have always been the Achilles heel holding back technology in Africa. That problem is solved by mobile payments systems tied to real IDs and historical use. This, in turn, creates a system that allows for debt and credit ratings, lending and loans, creating weath and generating transactions across the continent and beyond. A mobile operator blankets the continent with their service in 90% of the continent's countries.
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Ken Banks Founder, kiwanja.net and FrontlineSMS@kiwanja
Africa takes hold of its own communications future: Local talent shines through and the continent becomes a leading innovator, manufacturer and exporter of cutting-edge, energy efficient, eco-friendly communications devices and systems not only throughout the continent, but to the rest of the world.
Appropriate technologies: Local manufacturers, more aware and sensitive to Africa's cultural diversity, build devices with real-time translation of text and voice to support and embrace multiple languages and dialects. Cultural, historical and environmental augmented reality tools will also allow users to reconnect with lost customs, traditions, storytellers and languages of the past.
Local networks: With rural populations still featuring strongly in Africa's demographic make-up, devices will double-up as base stations as standard, creating automatic ad-hoc networks any time, anywhere without the need for masts or other cumbersome infrastructure.
The Knowledge Phone: Internal storage capacity on mobile devices will be infinite, allowing the storage of vasts amounts of data. "The World Wide Web on a stick" (well, a phone).
Access to communication and information will be officially classified as a "human right".
The images used in this work are used with permission from a Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 Unported, unless otherwise stated. Thank you for sharing your work: Rudy De Waele / image by Jonathan Dueck / http://www.flickr.com/photos/jdueck/ Kennedy Kachwanya / image by Frank Douwes / http://www.flickr.com/photos/frankdo uwes/ Stephane Boyera / image by Thomas Leplus / http://www.flickr.com/photos/lethalpossum/ Eric Cantor / image by Nathan Colquhoun / http://www.flickr.com/photos/nathancolquhoun/ Will Mworia / image by Maker Fa ire Africa / http://www.flickr.com/photos/533 74366@N07/ Gerald Begumisa / image by Global.finland.fi / http://www.flickr.com/photos/mlk_global/ Bev Clark / image by Dan A'Vard / http://www.flickr.com/photos/dirty_dan/ Liva Judic / image by IICD / http://www.flickr.com/photos/iicd/ Steve Vosloo / image by Dan A'Vard / http://www.flickr.com/photos/dirty_dan/ Nigel Waller / image by Ken Banks / http://www.flickr.com/photos/kiwanja/ Nicholas Heller / image by Global.finland.fi / http://www.flickr.com/photos/mlk_global/ Moses Kemibaro / image by Fabien Girardin / http://girardin.org/fabien/ Gustav Praekelt / image by Tina Li / http://www.flickr.com/photos/tinali778/ Valerie Itey / image by Tina Li / http://www.flickr.com/photos/tinali778/ Jessica Colaço / image by Morten Just / http://www.flickr.com/photos/mortenjust/ John Wesonga / image by Kovas Boguta / http://www.visualizing.org/html5/12846 Marlon Parker / image by Rita Willaert / http://www.flickr.com/photos/rietje/ Brigh t Simons / image by Felix Krohn / http ://www.flickr.com/photos/kro_royal/430406905/ Katrin Verclas / image by dotopen / http://www. mobileactive.org Nathan Eagle / image by Brittany H. / http://www.flickr.com/photos/thelivelygirl/ Adam Greenfield / image by esa / http://esamultim edia.esa.int/images/EarthObs ervation/Envisat/tapisserie_100x55_H.jpg David Risher / image byFrank Douwes / http://www.flickr.com/photos/frankdouwes/ Ken Banks / image by Jo hn Duffell / http://www.flickr.com/photos/johnduffell/ Jacques van Niekerk / image b y Global.finland.fi / http://www.flickr.com/photos/mlk_global/ Wolfgang Fengler / image by Nathan Cooke / http://www.flickr.com/photos/chefcooke/ Erik Hersman / image by Smyl/ http://www.flickr.com/photos/vatyma/ Anthony K. Ng'eno / image by Enric Teller / http://www.flickr.com/photos/cirne/ Steve Mutinda / image by pam Morris / http://www.flickr.com/photos/35528040@N04/ Ajit Jaokar / image by Clem23 / http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Lake_Manyara.jpg