2012 th, Weekly Markets26 n PerspectivesNovember For important disclosures, refer to the Disclosure Section, located at the end of this report.
Weekly SummaryRisk assets rebounded last week. Global stocks Portugal passed the sixth review of itsmarkets had their best weekly gains in many programme. The Troika said that downside risksmonths, reflecting increased optimism after to growth were significant. Given this economicpresident Obama expressed confidence on a fiscal backdrop, will Portugal be able to meet its fiscalcliff agreement with Congress. However, the road targets of 5% of GDP this year and 4.5% of GDP into a fiscal compromise is still expected to be 2013?bumpy. The EU Summit on a spending plan for the yearsThe Euro-zone stock markets had to face two 2014-2020 showed strong differences in opinionnegative events: the downgrade of France and and no agreement.further delay in the release of the loans to Greece. In China, the November HSBC “flash”Moody’s has downgraded France from Aaa to Aa1 manufacturing PMI rose to a 13-month high. In(outlook remains Negative) due to a sustained loss Europe, the November “flash” PMIs for France,of competitiveness and the uncertain fiscal outlook. Germany and the euro area seem to point to aThe market reaction has been fairly modest. Euro-zone contraction in Q4.The Eurogroup was unable to reach a consensus The Japanese election is scheduled for Decemberlast Tuesday on Greece. A new meeting will be held 16th. The pronouncements of the LDP leader aretoday to decide in which conditions will be released influencing the market as they are seen as thethe next bailout tranche to Greece. policies of the future prime minister of Japan.
Portugal passes sixth review of its programme• The statement by the European Commission, reforms are proceeding; ECB, and IMF on the sixth review mission to • Rising unemployment weighs on households’ Portugal was published last week; incomes, while the recession in the euro area is• Portugal has passed the 6th quarterly review of beginning to bear on exports dynamics; its rescue programme. The country will receive • The statement mentions that downside risks to the next €2.5bn tranche of its loan. With this, growth are significant. Real GDP in 2013 is Portugal will have received 87% of its €78bn expected to decline by 1%, but should gradually rescue loan; return to positive quarterly growth rates during• The programme is considered to be broadly on the year. Is this projection too optimistic? track; • A expenditure review in underway by the• According to the statement, external and fiscal Portuguese government. Results will be discussed adjustment continue to advance, and structural during the seventh review (February 2013). Current Account Balance 20112012F 2013F IMF (WEO October 2012) -6.4%-2.9% -1.7% EU/IMF Financial Assistance Programme 2011-2014 -9.0%-6.7% -4.1% Unemployment Rate 20112012F 2013F IMF (WEO October 2012) 12.7%15.5% 16.0% EU/IMF Financial Assistance Programme 2011-2014 12.1%13.4% 13.3% Government Budget Deficit Target 20112012F 2013F 6th Review Mission 5.0% 4.5% EU/IMF Financial Assistance Programme 2011-2014 5.9% 4.5% 3.0%Source: IMF; Bank of Portugal Source: Bank of Portugal, IMF
BoP and INE releases monthly IFO rebounds in Novembereconomic indicators • The overall German business climate indicator• In October 2012, the monthly coincident rose from 100 in October to 101.4 in indicators for the y/y evolution of economic November; activity and private consumption, calculated by • The rise was unexpected. However, the index the Bank of Portugal, increased compared to the remains at its second lowest level since previous month (see chart); February 2010;• However, the economic climate indicator, • It is probably too soon to conclude that released by INE (the statistical office of Portugal) Germany is going through a renewed upturn, fell in September and October, interrupting the which would be positive for the peripheral previous tenuous ascending path. economy. BoP Monthly Economic Indicators Ifo Business Climate Indicator and German GDP 6 115 5% 4 105 0.9% 1% 2 Activity Coincident Indicator - Monthly 95 -3% 0 93.2 -1.7-2 Private Consumption Coincident Indicator - 85 -7%-4 Monthly-6 -4.5 75 -11% 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013-8 Ifo Business Expectations (Adv. 3 mths, LHS) German GDP (% y/y, RHS) 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012Source: Bank of Portugal Source: Ifo Institute; Eurostat
Moody’s downgrades France Euro-zone recession keeps going…• Moody’s put France on negative outlook in • The Euro-zone “flash” composite PMI index February and S&P downgraded it in January. increased slightly in November from 45.7 to 45.8 France is now rated Aa1 by Moody’s. However (see chart); bond yields remain very low (see chart); • The pick-up in the composite index reflects an• The downgrade can cut the lending capacity of increase in the manufacturing index offsetting a the EFSF and ESM; fall in the service index. The service index fell to a• It can also strain the relationship between 40-month low, pointing to the negative effects of Germany and France; the austerity and to a weakening labour market;• Will France be pushed towards more austerity • The German composite index increased from 47.7 measures to reduce its budget deficit to 3% of to 47.9, while the French index rose from 43.5 to GDP next year? 44.6; 10-Yr Government Bond Yield Composite PMI and Euro-zone GDP4.0% 4.0% 65 1.5% 1.0%3.5% 3.5% 60 0.5%3.0% 3.0% 55 -0.10% 0.0% -0.5%2.5% 50 2.2% 2.5% -1.0% 45 45.8 -1.5%2.0% 2.0% -2.0% Germany 1.4% 401.5% 1.5% -2.5% France 35 -3.0%1.0% 1.0% 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 Jan-10 Jun-10 Nov-10 Apr-11 Sep-11 Feb-12 Jul-12 Dec-12 Composite PMI (LHS) Euro-zone GDP (q/q, RHS)Source: Bloomberg Source: Markit and Eurostat
Spanish Banks NPLs at 10.71% Catalonia went to the polls• NPLs increased by €3.45bn to €182bn in • Artur Mas called the election after Madrid September (+2% m/m), reflecting a weak refused more fiscal autonomy for Catalonia; economy, the Real Estate sector adjustment and • Catalan people are increasingly in favour of high unemployment levels; independence;• Private deposits fell 7.3% y/y (+1.4% m/m); • Catalonia is the most indebted of the regions (see• Loans to the private resident sector decreased chart); 4.9% y/y. Total loans declined 2.2% y/y; • The economic fundamentals remain weak in• Sovereign debt holdings increased 46% y/y and Spain. The country is still expected to request 5% m/m (to 6.9% of total assets). ECB funding support from the euro area. Pressure on Spain is stood at €378bn at the end of September. likely to mount in 2013 in light of its gross bond issuance (€90bn). Regional Government Debt (% of regions GDP) 25% 22% 21% 20% 18% 18% 16% 15% 13% 12% 12% 12% 11% 11% 10% 11% 10% 11% 9% 9% 10% 5% 0% Madrid canarias Navarra Extremadura Galicia Murcia Andalucia Baleares Aragon Castilla y Leon Cantabria Castilla-La Mancha Pais Vasco Valencia Asturias Cataluna La RojaSource: Bank of Spain Source: Bank of Spain
US: NAHB Housing Market Index is now at its highest levelsince May 2006 – Housing continues to strengthen• Housing data released last week (housing starts, • Initial jobless claims dropped 41,000 to 410,000 building permits, existing home sales and NAHB during the week ending November 17th. The US housing market index) continues to suggest a Department of Labor disclosed that the elevated recovery in the US housing market; claims readings from the past two weeks were• November consumer sentiment was revised distorted by Hurricane Sandy; down in the final estimate. The decline was likely • The flash estimate of the US Markit explained by weakness in the stock market in manufacturing PMI in November rose to a five- recent weeks; month high 52.4 from 51.3 in October. 460 NAHB Index vs. US Existing Home Sales 85 U. of Michigan Consumer Confidence Initial Jobless Claims (000s)50 5.5 82.7 440 41 8040 5.0 420 75 41030 4.79 4.5 400 7020 4.0 380 6510 3.5 360 600 3.0 55 340 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 NAHB Index (LHS) Existing Home Sales (mn annualized, RHS) 50 320Source: National Association of Home Builders; 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov DecNational Association of Realtors Source: U. of Michigan Research Center Source: US Department of Labor
Cyprus close to EU/IMF bailout China: PMI supports steady The rescue could amount to around €17bn• (c.100% of Cyprus’s GDP), of which €10bn will be recovery to refinance banks; • The November HSBC flash manufacturing PMI• Banks’ exposure to Greece (160% of GDP) led to rose to a 13-month high of 50.4 (49.5 in massive losses, forcing Cyprus to ask Russia for a October), moving above the 50 threshold for €2.5bn loan late last year; the first time since October 2011 (see chart);• Cyprus requested a bailout in June and has been • The output index reached a 13-month high. in negotiations with the Troika since November New export orders rose above 50 for the first 9th; time since April 2012;• The European Commission sees the country’s • The positive signs seen in the September and deficit at 5.7% of GDP next year and the debt October activity data seem to have been ratio reaching 96.7%. sustained into November. Cyprus Real GDP growth (y/y)8%6%4%2%0%-2% -2.7% -2.2%-4% 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012Source: Bloomberg Source: Bloomberg
Japan: Will the upcoming elections change themacroeconomic outcome ?• Since the lower house dissolution, the leader of • The new administration in Japan will probably the LDP (the largest opposition party) has spoken be aggressive on monetary policy, pushing for a about reform the BOJ monetary policy; higher inflation target and for bond buying by• The LDP will probably win a majority or near- BOJ; majority in the lower house. Nevertheless, the • LDP’s “Revitalization Plan for Japan’s Economy” LDP will need a coalition partner in order to pass includes measures in the tax system and in the legislation through the upper house; energy sector (e.g. overcome electricity-supply• There´s little clarity on fiscal policy because the constraints). LDP is split. There’s a group calling for more Japan: Government Debt vs. spending (higher public investment) and a group 210% Government Budget 10% concerned about fiscal deficit and government 200% 8% debt. However, an expansionary budget is likely in 190% 6% the near term; 180%• Increased pressure on the BOJ to buy JGBs; 170% 4%• The LDP’s economic policies intends to end yen 160% 2% appreciation and “the creation of a framework for 150% stronger collaboration between the government 140% 0% 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 and BoJ and the implementation of bold Government Debt as % of GDP (LHS) monetary easing, including revisions to the BoJ Government Budget Deficit as % of GDP (RHS) Law”; Source: Central Intelligence Agency; Bloomberg
PSI20 weekly review• Sonae Indústria (SONI PL) fell 5.4%, the most in the PSI20. The company reported 3rd quarter 2012 results on November 16th. Although Sonae Indústria is now more efficient after the restructuring done over last years, its strong exposure to macro uncertainty in Europe and high financial leverage remain significant concerns for investors;• Jerónimo Martins (JMT PL) rose 6.6% to €14.5. The company’s Chairman said that Jerónimo Martins wants to have about 30 to 40 stores in Colombia next year. More details could be announced at its upcoming Investor’s Day in Lisbon on December 11st;• Galp (GALP PL)´s CEO stated that he expects exports to reach €4.2bn in FY12. With potencial upside to resources estimates from both Mozambique and Brazil, Galp could deliver one of the best production and earnings growth rates in the European oil and gas sector. The stock was up 5.5% last week;• Banco Espirito Santo (BES PL) rose 3.7% over the week. The bank announced a R$ 100mn capital increase for its Brazilian unit (80% BES and 20% Bradesco). Source: Bloomberg
Q3 2012 Mota-Engil Results: Net profit increase 11% y/y to€7mn• Mota-Engil (EGL PL) reported Q3 2012 results. Revenues reached €675mn, up 16% y/y and 5% above consensus, reflecting the good performance of the international unit (more than compensating the weakness of the domestic unit);• Q3 2012 EBITDA rose 9% y/y to €83mn, a 3% beat vs. consensus. EBIT stood at €53mn, up 6% y/y. Net profit was €7mn, which compares to €11mn from consensus. Higher minorities reflect the strong performance of the Angolan unit. Net debt deceased 1% q/q;• The order book fell 6% q/q;• The re-negotiation of the Portuguese shadow tolls’ remuneration (that are currently paid by availability) is ongoing;• The company continues to diversify its revenue sources;• Regarding the privatization of the Portuguese Airport Operator (ANA), Mota-Engil’s stake in the consortium should be small.€ thousand Q3 2011 Q2 2012 Q3 2012 Change % Q/Q Change % Y/YTurnover 582,121 530,637 675,009 27% 16%EBITDA 75,606 72,417 82,693 14% 9%EBIT 50,457 48,103 53,336 11% 6%Net Income 16,207 20,564 23,220 13% 43%Non Controlling Interests 9,945 6,766 16,257Net profit to the Group 6,262 13,798 6,963 -50% 11% Source: Company data
Last week’s market highlights Hewlett Packard share price ($)• Hewlett-Packard (HPQ US) fell 3.0% over the week. The 50 45 company reported Q4 FY12 of $1.16, ahead of consensus 40 of $1.14. However, the company’s outlook for next 35 quarter was disappointing, although it maintained its 30 25 FY13 outlook. Sentiment and expectations around the 20 stock continue to be remarkably depressed. Hewlett- 15 12.46 Packard accused Autonomy, the software company it 10 Jan-11 Apr-11 Jul-11 Oct-11 Jan-12 Apr-12 Jul-12 Oct-12 4.5 bought last year, of several falsehoods that contributed Nokia share price (€) 4.0 to a $8.8bn writedown; 3.5• Nokia (NOK1V FH) surged 30.5%. The company disclosed 3.0 €2.754 that it received reports that its Lumia 920 model had 2.5 sold out in Germany. Nokia still has a long way to go to 2.0 reach sustainable profitability. Nevertheless, investor 1.5 1.0 sentiment on Nokia shares and on the new Windows 8 Dec- 11 Feb-12 Apr-12 Jun-12 Aug-12 Oct-12 Dec- 12 Nokia Lumia 920/820 phones were overly negative; 3.5 Gamesa Share price (€)• Gamesa (GAM SM) rose 9.9% to €1.703. Gamesa India 3.0 2.5 announced that it will develop 47.6MW wind farm in 2.0 Maharashtra. The company presented last October its 1.5 1.703 2012-15 business plan. Gamesa targets a €100mn fixed 1.0 cost reduction and will implement several restructuring 0.5 moves. Jan-12 Mar- 12 Source: Company data May-12 Jul-12 Sep-12 Nov-12
What we are watching this week: CALENDAR - Event Date Hour (GMT) Survey Prior• Euro-zone finance ministers and Troika BOJ Minutes of Oct 30 monetary policy meeting 26-Nov 23:50 n.a. n.a. Japan BOJ Governor Shirakawa speech 26-Nov n.a. n.a. n.a. representatives will attempt to reach an Euro-Zone Finance Ministers meet on Greek Debt 26-Nov 11:30 n.a. n.a. GfK Consumer Confidence Survey ,Germany 26-Nov 12:00 6.2 6.3 agreement on Greece matters today. FED Chairman Bernanke gives brief opening remarks at College Fed 27-Nov 13:30 n.a. n.a. Will a deal be announced on a reshuffle Hungary monetary policy decision Portugal to hold final vote on 2013 Budget 27-Nov 27-Nov n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. Q3 Real GDP details (y/y), UK 27-Nov 09:30 0.0% 0.0% of the Greek bailout programme? Will OECD November Economic Outlook, Euro-Zone 27-Nov 10:00 n.a. n.a. Durable Goods Orders, US 27-Nov 13:30 -0.8% 9.9% some debt relief be offered to Greece? Richmond Fed Manufact. Index ,US 27-Nov 15:00 n.a. -7 The discussion will start at 11:30 GMT; Conf. Board Consumer Confidence, US (Nov) Euro-Zone M3 s.a. (y/y) ,Euro-Zone 27-Nov 28-Nov 15:00 09:00 73.0 2.8% 72.2 2.7%• On Wednesday, the ECB will release its New Home Sales, US Federal Reserve Beige Book, US 28-Nov 28-Nov 15:00 19:00 388K n.a. 389K n.a. data on monetary developments in the Brazil Copom monetary policy decision 28-Nov n.a. 7.25% 7.25% Unemployment Change (000s), Germany 29-Nov 08:55 16K 20K Euro-zone for October; Unemployment Rate, Germany 29-Nov 08:55 6.9% 6.9% Business Climate Indicator, Euro-Zone 29-Nov 10:00 -1.60 -1.62• There will be various inflation figures Euro-Zone Economic Confidence, Euro-Zone 29-Nov 10:00 84.5 84.5 Q3 Real GDP (revision) QoQ (Annualized), US 29-Nov 13:30 2.8% 2.0% for November later in the week Initial Jobless Claims, US 29-Nov 13:30 390K 410K Continuing Claims, US 29-Nov 13:30 3321K 3337K (Germany, Spain, Italy, Euro-zone); Consumer Spending (y/y), France 30-Nov 07:45 -0.5% -0.3%• In the US, the durable goods report for Consumer Confidence, Portugal Economic Climate Indicator, Portugal 30-Nov 30-Nov 10:00 10:00 n.a. n.a. -55.3 -4.6 October will be disclosed Tuesday; Euro-Zone Unemployment Rate Euro-Zone CPI Estimate (y/y) 30-Nov 30-Nov 10:00 10:00 11.7% 2.4% 11.6% 2.5%• The Conference Board measure of Japan nationwide CPI (Oct) Industrial Production (m/m), Portugal 30-Nov 30-Nov n.a. 11:00 n.a. n.a. n.a. -12.0% consumer confidence (Tuesday) and the Japan industrial production (prelim. Oct) 30-Nov n.a. n.a. n.a. Retail Sales (m/m), Portugal 30-Nov 11:00 n.a. -4.1% October personal and spending report GDP (IBGE) y/y ,Brazil 30-Nov 11:00 1.9% 0.5% Gross Domestic Product y/y, Canada 30-Nov 13:30 1.2% 1.2% (Friday) should also be watched closely; Personal Income, US (Oct) 30-Nov 13:30 0.2% 0.4% Personal Spending, US (Oct) 30-Nov 13:30 0.1% 0.8%• Q3 2012 real GDP data for Switzerland Chicago Purchasing Manager, US 30-Nov 14:45 51.0 49.9 China manufacturing PMI (Nov) 1-Dec n.a. n.a. 50.2 and Sweden are due Thursday. Korea trade balance (Nov) 1-Dec n.a. n.a. n.a.
Next Week Preview: Economics US Conf. Board Consumer Confidence• The Conference Board Consumer Confidence for 120 November is due Tuesday (November 27th). The 100 fall in gasoline prices, the recent pick-up in job 80 growth and the recovery in the housing market 60 should continue to support consumer sentiment. 40 However, the fall in equity prices at the beginning 20 of the month and fiscal cliff uncertainty could 0 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 have a negative effect;• The latest orders data from public homebuilders suggest that US housing market continues to recover. October’s new home sales will be released Wednesday (November 28th). Nonetheless, Hurricane Sandy could have had some impact;• Brazil Q3 2012 Real GDP will be released Friday. 2.0% Brazil Real GDP (q/q) Real GDP growth is expected to have accelerated. 1.3% If confirmed, the central bank will probably stop 0.9% 1.0% 0.8% cutting rates. Interest rates have been cut by 0.6% 0.4% 525bp since mid-2011. Both monetary and fiscal 0.1% 0.1% policies seems to be expansionary, at the -0.2% Mar-10 Jun-10 Sep-10 Dec- 10 Mar- 11 Jun-11 Sep-11 Dec-11 Mar-12 Jun-12 Sep-12 Dec- 12 moment. Source: Bloomberg
Next Week Preview: Eurogroup meeting and Portugal earnings seasonThe Eurogroup meets again Portugal: This week’s resultstoday• The Eurogroup and the IMF were not able to • Soares da Costa (SCOAE PL) will report its Q3 find an agreement to finish the Greek 2012 results on November 29th (before market programme review and proceed to the payment open). A poor performance is expected for the of the next financing tranche; domestic market. However, investor should focus• Official lenders are reported to be considering a on the performance of the Angolan and US units; debt buyback program, a cut on interest rates • Banif (BNF PL) will disclose Q3 2012 earnings on charged on Greek loans (or even allow for a November 30th. B/S deleverage, assets disposals grace period), and to lengthen maturities; and restructuring costs should penalize the bank’s• According to press reports, the Eurogroup is results. The Bank recapitalization plan should working on ways to bring down the debt to GDP remain the investors’ main focus; ratio more aggressively; • Teixeira Duarte (TDSA PL) is expected to• However, European member states still oppose announce Q3 2012 results on November 30th. A outright haircuts on Greek loans; weak performance in the domestic unit should• An agreement at today’s meeting would allow reflect the depressed market environment. the payment of the Q3 2012 (€31.3bn), the Q4 International markets (particularly Brazil) should 2012 (€5bn) and probably also the Q1 2012 continue growing. Retail and the Hotels unit (€8.3bn) financing tranches, totaling €44bn. should show positive signs.
Charts we are watching (I)• Glencore (GLEN LN)’s takeover of Xstrata (XTA LN) Glencore and Xstrata share prices 130 140 got the go-ahead from both sets of shareholders last 120 Glencore 130 Tuesday. This deal was only possible after Glencore Xstrata 120 proposed a revised offer of 3.05 new shares for 110 110 every Xstrata share, up from 2.8. Moreover, Europe’s 100 antitrust regulator announced more modest than 100 90 expected conditions to clear the deal. Glencore must 90 now secure a final approval from China and South 80 80 Dec. 31, 2011 = 100 African authorities. The Glencore Xstrata seems to 70 70 be an attractive story from an EPS momentum Jan-12 Source: Bloomberg Apr-12 Jul-12 Oct-12 (commodity mix, self-help) and growth point of view. 8 Banco Popular Share Price (€) 7• Banco Popular (POP SM)’s EGM recently approved a 6 €2.5bn rights issue to meet capital needs from Oliver 5 Wyman’s stress test. The rights will trade until November 28th, and the new shares will start trading 4 on December 6th. Once completed, the bank is 3 expected to have confortable capital ratios. The 2 stock is down c.70% YTD. Given the weak domestic 1 0.55 economy backdrop, will its business model allow the 0 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 bank to achieve higher ROEs in the mid-term? Source: Bloomberg
Charts we are watching (II)• Zon (ZON PL) and Sonaecom (SNC PL) rose 5.3% and ZON and Sonaecom Share Prices 130 4.3%, respectively over the last week. Both stocks outperformed the Portuguese Stock Market Index 120 Dec. 31, 2011 = 100 PSI20. ANACOM, the Portuguese telecom regulator, announced that it intends to release the regulation on 110 fibre until the end of the year. Investors seem to remain 100 focused on a possible M&A deal between the two companies and the meaningful impact that it should 90 ZON Sonaecom bring to both. Zon and Sonaecom seem to have a strong 80 fit. A deal would allow significant cost synergies and Jan-12 Mar-12 May-12 Jul-12 Sep-12 Nov-12 Source: Bloomberg create a strong integrated player to compete with Portugal Telecom. JPY/USD (JPY per 1 USD) (RHS) Topix vs. JPY/USD exchange rate 880 Topix Stock Market Index 84• The Topix stock market index showed again strong gains (LHS) 83 on a weaker yen and easing expectations. Japanese 840 JPY/USD (JPY per 1 USD) 82 (RHS) stocks were supported by the LDP election manifesto 800 81 (released on November 21st), that included significant 80 monetary easing, a 2% inflation target, and more than 760 79 3% nominal GDP growth. At the monetary policy 720 78 meeting on November 20th, the BOJ Policy Board voted 77 680 76 unanimously to maintain the current policy rate and to Jan-12 Mar-12 May-12 Jul-12 Sep-12 Nov-12 keep the size of the Asset Purchase Programme. Source: Bloomberg
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