Newspaper advertising forecast for 2013

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These slides were presented at the beginning of a NetNewsCheck webinar Thursday, Oct. 4, 2012, by Borrell Associates CEO Gordon Borrell. For the narrative, download the deck and look in the notes for each slide.

Business

Where Newspaper Advertising Is Headed

Oct. 4, 2012

For the narrative of this presentation,
click “Save File” on the slide frame (above)
and download the presentation. See the narrative
in the notes beneath each slide.

Newspaper Print Adv. Trends, 2000-2017
© 2012 Borrell Associates Inc.

$ billions

Not down…but not up much, either.

Sources: NAA, Borrell Associates Inc.

Newspaper Print Ad Forecast
 0.5% growth in advertising in 2013
 1.7% growth in 2014
 1% to 1.5% annual growth beyond that
 Smaller newspapers grow by high single digits
 Metro papers decline for foreseeable future

Watch for Camel Hump. Preprints May Be OK

Hump
© 2012 Borrell Associates Inc.

Hump

?

Sources: NAA, Borrell Associates Inc.

Digital Revenue Growth in 2012

Local Online Ad Sales in 2013
© 2012 Borrell Associates Inc.

Estimated Average Median Highest
Parent Media # in Sample 2012 Growth DMR Share DMR Share DMR Share
Daily Newspapers 371 14.6% 5.93% 5.73% 65.96%
TV Stations 324 10.6% 1.93% 2.56% 63.26%
Pureplay Internet Cos. 667 32.5% 4.09% 3.91% 58.85%
Weekly Newspapers 127 13.0% 0.80% 0.48% 11.76%
Cable Systems 137 15.9% 0.91% 1.43% 10.47%
Radio Clusters 59* 9.5% 0.65% 0.60% 3.48%
Total/Averages 1,685 21.4% 3.14% 2.17% 65.96%

Local Online Ad Sales in 2013
 30% overall growth in most local markets
 Untargeted banner sales decline -3%
 Targeted banner sales increase 105%
 Online video ad sales up 43%
 Little growth for “bundled” print+digital sales

Growth in 2013: Video & Targeted Banners

Local Online Ad Sales in 2013
© 2012 Borrell Associates Inc.

The Future: It’s All About Targeting

Local Online Ad Sales in 2013
© 2012 Borrell Associates Inc.

Don’t Miss This Event!

Join us for the largest gathering of local digital media executives. For information,
Visit borrellassociates.com and click on “conference.”

Questions?

Gordon Borrell, CEO
Phone: 757-221-6641
Email: gborrell@borrellassociates.com
Website: www.borrellassociates.com
LinkedIn Group: Local Advertising & Marketing Trends

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Newspaper advertising forecast for 2013

1. Where Newspaper Advertising Is Headed Oct. 4, 2012

2. For the narrative of this presentation, click “Save File” on the slide frame (above) and download the presentation. See the narrative in the notes beneath each slide.

4. Newspaper Print Ad Forecast  0.5% growth in advertising in 2013  1.7% growth in 2014  1% to 1.5% annual growth beyond that  Smaller newspapers grow by high single digits  Metro papers decline for foreseeable future

6. Digital Revenue Growth in 2012 Local Online Ad Sales in 2013 © 2012 Borrell Associates Inc. Estimated Average Median Highest Parent Media # in Sample 2012 Growth DMR Share DMR Share DMR Share Daily Newspapers 371 14.6% 5.93% 5.73% 65.96% TV Stations 324 10.6% 1.93% 2.56% 63.26% Pureplay Internet Cos. 667 32.5% 4.09% 3.91% 58.85% Weekly Newspapers 127 13.0% 0.80% 0.48% 11.76% Cable Systems 137 15.9% 0.91% 1.43% 10.47% Radio Clusters 59* 9.5% 0.65% 0.60% 3.48% Total/Averages 1,685 21.4% 3.14% 2.17% 65.96%

7. Local Online Ad Sales in 2013  30% overall growth in most local markets  Untargeted banner sales decline -3%  Targeted banner sales increase 105%  Online video ad sales up 43%  Little growth for “bundled” print+digital sales

10. Don’t Miss This Event! Join us for the largest gathering of local digital media executives. For information, Visit borrellassociates.com and click on “conference.”

11. Questions? Gordon Borrell, CEO Phone: 757-221-6641 Email: gborrell@borrellassociates.com Website: www.borrellassociates.com LinkedIn Group: Local Advertising & Marketing Trends

Editor's Notes

Kathy first question to Gordon: Gordon Borrell I’ve seen forecasts of newspaper revenue falling again next year, yet you’re seeing smaller and medium sized publishers generating revenue increases. What’s Borrell’s forecast for the industry in 2013?
Kathy first question to Gordon: Gordon Borrell I’ve seen forecasts of newspaper revenue falling again next year, yet you’re seeing smaller and medium sized publishers generating revenue increases. What’s Borrell’s forecast for the industry in 2013?

Newspaper advertising forecast for 2013

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