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Charitable Bequest Demographics,[object Object],Dr. Russell James,[object Object],Texas Tech University,[object Object]
What do we know about who makes charitable plans and charitable bequests?,[object Object],Dr. Russell James,[object Object],Texas Tech University,[object Object]
Previous studies,[object Object],One time survey,[object Object],[object Object],After death distributions,[object Object],[object Object]
Rare single county probate studies,[object Object]
New Questions,[object Object],Changes,[object Object],Not just who has charitable plans but ,[object Object],when do they add and drop them,[object Object],Intentions v. Outcomes,[object Object],Did during life plans result in after death distributions,[object Object]
Details,[object Object],[object Object]
Over 20,000 people per survey.
In person interviews, some follow up by phone.
Started in 1992
Questions within larger Health & Retirement Study
Respondents paid,[object Object]
U.S. Over 50 Population,[object Object],* Weighted nationally representative 2006 sample,[object Object]
U.S. Over 50 Population,[object Object],* Weighted nationally representative 2006 sample,[object Object]
What share of over-50 charitable donors  giving over $500 per year indicate that they have a charitable estate plan?,[object Object]
* Donors giving $500+ per year, weighted nationally representative 2006 sample,[object Object]
Can that be right?,[object Object],Maybe a lot of donors will eventually get around to making a charitable plan?,[object Object],Will donors ever get around to making a charitable plan?,[object Object]
Projecting based on age, gender and mortality or tracking actual post-death distributions ,[object Object],88%-90% of donors ($500+/year) over age 50 will die with no charitable estate plan.,[object Object]
You mean 90% of our donors will die without leaving a gift?,[object Object],You mean we could generate 9 times more estate gifts from our current donors?,[object Object]
Among donors ($500+) over 50 with an estate plan, what is the single most significant factor associated with having a charitable estate plan?,[object Object],Age? Education? Wealth? Income? ,[object Object]
Among Donors ($500+) with an Estate Plan,[object Object]
Regression: Compare only otherwise identical people ,[object Object],Example: The effect of differences in education among those making the same income, with the same wealth, same family structure, etc.,[object Object]
Likelihood of having a charitable plan(comparing otherwise identical individuals),[object Object],Graduate degree (v. high school)		+4.2 % points,[object Object],Gives $500+ per year to charity		+3.1 % points,[object Object],Volunteers regularly				+2.0 % points,[object Object],College degree (v. high school)		+1.7 % points,[object Object],Has been diagnosed with a stroke		+1.7 % points,[object Object],Is ten years older				+1.2 % points,[object Object],Has been diagnosed with cancer		+0.8 % points,[object Object],Is married (v. unmarried)			+0.7 % points,[object Object],Diagnosed with a heart condition		+0.4 % points,[object Object],Attends church 1+ times per month		+0.2 % points,[object Object],Has $1,000,000 more in assets		+0.1 % points,[object Object],Has $100,000 per year more income	not significant,[object Object],Is male (v. female)				not significant,[object Object],Has only children (v. no offspring)		-2.8 % points,[object Object],Has grandchildren (v. no offspring)		-10.5 % points,[object Object]
Find your estate donor…,[object Object]
From an Australian study by Christopher ,[object Object],Baker including 1729 wills:,[object Object],“Australian will-makers without surviving children are ten times more likely to make a charitable gift from their estate”,[object Object]
How did giving during life compare with post death transfers? ,[object Object],$,[object Object],$,[object Object],$,[object Object],$,[object Object]
Estate giving and annual giving for 6,342 deceased panel members,[object Object]
When did people drop charitable plans?,[object Object]
Yes!,[object Object],Yes!,[object Object],No.,[object Object],What happened here?,[object Object]
Factors that triggered dropping the charitable plan,[object Object],1. Becoming a grandparent 			0.7226* (0.2997),[object Object],2. Becoming a parent 				0.6111†(0.3200),[object Object],3. Stopping current charitable giving 	0.1198* (0.0934),[object Object],4. A drop in self-rated health  		0.0768†(0.0461),[object Object],Some factors that didn’t seem to matter: ,[object Object],Change in income ,[object Object],Change in assets ,[object Object],Change in marital status,[object Object],*Fixed effects analysis including 1,306 people who reported a charitable plan and later reported no charitable plan.  Coefficients show relative magnitude of factors.,[object Object]
When did people add charitable plans?,[object Object]
Factors that triggered adding a new charitable plan,[object Object],Starting to make charitable gifts  		.1531† (.0882),[object Object],An improvement in self-reported health 	.0927* (0.0446),[object Object],A $100k increase in assets 			.0061** (.0023),[object Object],One factor dramatically reduced the likelihood that a new charitable plan would be added:,[object Object],The addition of the first grandchild 		-.4641† (.2732),[object Object]
How often did planned bequests produce a post-death gift?,[object Object],Yes!,[object Object],No.,[object Object],Yes!,[object Object],Yes!,[object Object]
How often did planned bequests produce a post-death gift?,[object Object],Yes!,[object Object],40.9%,[object Object],59.1%,[object Object],Yes!,[object Object],No.,[object Object]
How often did planned bequests produce a post-death gift?,[object Object],71.5%,[object Object],surviving spouse,[object Object],No.,[object Object],Yes!,[object Object],No surviving spouse,[object Object],49.4%,[object Object],No.,[object Object],Yes!,[object Object]
What’s the problem?,[object Object]
Are mischievous heirs stealing the documents?,[object Object]
Charitable Bequest Demographics
Does choice of planning document matter?,[object Object]
Charitable Bequest Demographics
Does document choice really matter or is it just the people who are different?,[object Object]
Regression: Compare only otherwise identical people ,[object Object],Example: The effect of differences in trusts among those with same education, income, wealth, family structure, etc.,[object Object]
Trust increases likelihood of charitable transfer by 14-15 % points,[object Object]
Why are trusts more effective?,[object Object],Will probated,[object Object],60%,[object Object],40%,[object Object],Charitable plan and only will,[object Object],Will not probated,[object Object]
Consider using a phrase such as “a dollar amount equal to 10% of my gross estate for federal estate tax purposes”,[object Object]
Do the estates of people who make charitable estate plans grow differently than the general population?,[object Object]
After making their plan, charitable estate donors grew their estates 50%-100% faster than did others with same initial wealth,[object Object]
Using Demographics to Make Future Projections,[object Object],Dr. Russell James,[object Object],Texas Tech University,[object Object]
The Fall and Rise in Live Births - US,[object Object]
Dramatic increases on the horizon,[object Object],Temporary drop in key demographic population,[object Object]
The fall and rise in live births - UK,[object Object]
Persons alive in the UK, 2008-2030,[object Object]
Ireland population pyramid, 2001,[object Object],Without the large post-war baby boom, expect less rapid growth in older ages,[object Object],Growth will come primarily due to improved longevity,[object Object]
Projecting future bequest giving,[object Object],Frequency of future bequest gifts ,[object Object],Change in population,[object Object],Change in tendency to make bequest gifts,[object Object]
Do the boomers give differently?,[object Object],After controlling for wealth and income, the baby boom cohort gave at a significantly lower rate during middle age than the pre-war cohort did (Wilhelm, Rooney, and Tempel, 2008).,[object Object],Will boomers also be less charitable in estate giving? ,[object Object]
Data,[object Object],[object Object]
Analysis weighted to project to national means and adjusted for complex sample selection process,[object Object]
What is driving this trend?,[object Object]
Weighted descriptive statistics of adults aged 55-65 (‘96 & ‘06 HRS),[object Object]
Charitable estate planning among adults aged 55-65,[object Object]
Increases in charitable planning are driven by increases in childlessness and education,[object Object],Time trend disappears when including childlessness and education,[object Object],Time trend exists,[object Object],Probit analysis of all respondents age 55-65 in 1996-2006 HRS.  Outcome variable is the presence of charitable estate planning. ,[object Object]
Basic relationship,[object Object],This suggests that the overall trend of increased charitable estate planning may have been driven, in large part, by changes in childlessness and education.,[object Object],Such a relationship has important implications for predicting charitable estate planning levels in the future.,[object Object]
Upcoming cohorts and childlessness,[object Object],[object Object]
Women in the 56-61 age group during 2006 reported a childlessness rate of 16.0% in 1990 when they were aged 40-44 (Dye, 2005).  In comparison, women in the 40-44 age range in 2004 (i.e., those who will begin entering the 55-65 near retirement age group in 2015) reported a childlessness rate of 19.3% (Dye, 2005).  ,[object Object]
http://www.statistics.gov.uk/articles/population_trends/birthstats_pt94.pdf,[object Object]
Upcoming cohorts and education,[object Object],[object Object]
In 1996, less than 27% of those in the 35-54 age group had at least a bachelor’s degree.
By 2007, over 31% of those in the 35-54 age group had at least a bachelor’s degree (Current Population Survey, 2007).
Thus, one can expect the upcoming cohorts of individuals nearing retirement to be more educated than individuals currently in the 55-65 age group.,[object Object]
Photos from www.istockphoto.com,[object Object],Charitable Bequest Demographics,[object Object]

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Charitable Bequest Demographics

  • 1.
  • 2.
  • 3.
  • 4.
  • 5.
  • 6.
  • 7. Over 20,000 people per survey.
  • 8. In person interviews, some follow up by phone.
  • 10. Questions within larger Health & Retirement Study
  • 11.
  • 12.
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  • 61.
  • 62.
  • 63.
  • 64.
  • 65.
  • 66. In 1996, less than 27% of those in the 35-54 age group had at least a bachelor’s degree.
  • 67. By 2007, over 31% of those in the 35-54 age group had at least a bachelor’s degree (Current Population Survey, 2007).
  • 68.
  • 69.
  • 70.
  • 71.
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  • 75.

Editor's Notes

  1. http://www.statistics.gov.uk/CCI/article.asp?ID=618&Pos=3&ColRank=2&Rank=176
  2. http://www.statistics.gov.uk/downloads/theme_population/NPP2008/NatPopProj2008.pdf