Successfully reported this slideshow.
We use your LinkedIn profile and activity data to personalize ads and to show you more relevant ads. You can change your ad preferences anytime.

Charitable Bequest Demographics

4,477 views

Published on

The demographics and statistics of charitable estate planning

Charitable Bequest Demographics

  1. 1. Reaching the right people at the right time: The demographics of charitable estate planning Russell James Professor Texas Tech University
  2. 2. It’s kind of a BIG DEAL Why this new data is so important
  3. 3. The entire “lifetime” movie (tracking same people from mid-life to post-mortem) New data Previous data Old data Small one-time snapshots in life Post-mortem for largest estates
  4. 4. The entire “lifetime” movie • Matches sequence of lifetime responses with post- mortem distributions for over 10,000 decedents • Identifies timing of plan changes • Large, federally-funded, longitudinal, in-person, well-compensated, nationally representative, study on health and retirement issues
  5. 5. Does charitable bequest planning cannibalize current giving? “I don’t give now, because I have a planned charitable bequest”
  6. 6. $3,000 $4,000 $5,000 $6,000 $7,000 $8,000 $9,000 Before -8 years Before -6 years Before -4 years Before -2 years Mixed After +2 years After +4 years After +6 years After +8 years AnnualCharitableGiving inConstant(InflationAdjusted)2012Dollars Giving Before and After Adding Charitable Beneficiary to Estate Plan9,439 observations from a nationally representative longitudinal study
  7. 7. $3,000 $4,000 $5,000 $6,000 $7,000 $8,000 $9,000 Before -8 years Before -6 years Before -4 years Before -2 years Mixed After +2 years After +4 years After +6 years After +8 years AnnualCharitableGiving inConstant(InflationAdjusted)2012Dollars Giving Before and After Adding Charitable Beneficiary to Estate Plan9,439 observations from a nationally representative longitudinal study $7,381 average annual giving post-plan $4,210 average annual giving pre-plan +$3,171 average annual giving increase
  8. 8. Warning! Some results might not be pretty
  9. 9. 49% 51% 53% 55% 57% 59% 61% U.S. 55+ population with a will or trust
  10. 10. States allowing “Transfer on Death” deeds in 1995
  11. 11. States allowing “Transfer on Death” deeds in 2000
  12. 12. States allowing “Transfer on Death” deeds in 2005
  13. 13. States allowing “Transfer on Death” deeds in 2017
  14. 14. 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40% 45% 50% 55% Age 55+ use of will alone or trust Will Only Funded Trust
  15. 15. 8.0% 8.5% 9.0% 9.5% 10.0% 10.5% 11.0% 11.5% Charitable beneficiary among those aged 55+ with a will or trust
  16. 16. 0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 10% U.S. 55+ with a charitable beneficiary
  17. 17. Where’s the boom?
  18. 18. 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 $BillionsAnnually Est. High ('98-'17) Est. Middle ('98-'17) Est. Low ('98-'17) Charitable bequests received Charitable bequests: Predicted v. Received Estimated annually is 1/20 of 20 year estimated total from P.G. Schervish and J. J. Havens (1999) “Millionaires and the millenium: New estimates of the forthcoming wealth transfer and the prospects for a golden age of philanthropy”. Bequests received are inflation-adjusted numbers from Giving USA 2014
  19. 19. 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 $BillionsAnnually Est. High ('98-'17) Est. Middle ('98-'17) Est. Low ('98-'17) Charitable bequests received Charitable bequests: Predicted v. Received Estimated annually is 1/20 of 20 year estimated total from P.G. Schervish and J. J. Havens (1999) “Millionaires and the millenium: New estimates of the forthcoming wealth transfer and the prospects for a golden age of philanthropy”. Bequests received are inflation-adjusted numbers from Giving USA 2014
  20. 20. Charitable bequests since 2000 have trended flat… What’s going on?
  21. 21. 76 78 80 82 84 86 88 MedianAgeatDeath Linear (Male Bequest Donor) Linear (Female Bequest Donor) Linear (All Female) Linear (All Male) Wealthy people die old. Wealthy bequest donors die even older.
  22. 22. 70-90% of charitable bequest dollars come from decedents aged 80+ 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% 65 70 75 80 85 90 95 96+ Cumulative share of charitable bequest dollars by donor age at death (12,238 decedents) Actual $1MM Gift Cap
  23. 23. 2000000 2500000 3000000 3500000 4000000 4500000 1914(Age100) 1917(Age97) 1920(Age94) 1923(Age91) 1926(Age88) 1929(Age85) 1932(Age82) 1935(Age79) 1938(Age76) 1941(Age73) 1944(Age70) 1947(Age67) 1950(Age64) 1953(Age61) 1956(Age58) 1959(Age55) 1962(Age52) 1965(Age49) 1968(Age46) 1971(Age43) 1974(Age40) 1977(Age37) 1980(Age34) 1983(Age31) The “baby bust” is driving demographics Births
  24. 24. 1900000 2000000 2100000 2200000 2300000 2400000 2500000 Total deaths in the United States
  25. 25. 0 5,000,000 10,000,000 15,000,000 20,000,000 50-54 55-59 60-64 65-69 70-74 75-79 80-84 85-89 90-94 95-99 100+ 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Key population not growing, YET Total resident population by 5-year age groups Temporary flat trend in key population
  26. 26. Coming demographic wave will impact CRT creation first, then CGA creation, then bequests realization Realized Bequest Peak Age: 88 Franey, J. W. & James, R. N., III (2013) Trending Forward: Emerging Demographics Driving Planned Giving. National Conference on Philanthropic Planning, Minneapolis, MN, October 15-17, 2013 CRT Creation Peak Age: 70-74 CGA Creation Peak Age: 75-79
  27. 27. No upfront capital gains tax at sale Tax deferred growth (only distributions taxed) Immediate tax deduction Post-mortem management with DAF/PF beneficiary A CRT increases AUM IRS estimates overstate deduction due to donor longevity
  28. 28. Will a maximum payout CRUT (with appreciated assets) give more after-tax dollars to clients & heirs than a direct investment with no charitable gift? The Tax Benefit $ The Charitable Gift $ It depends…
  29. 29. Direct Investment v. Max-Payout CRUT • Age 60 male & 55 female • Vary life span (2012 IAM Table) • Vary returns (historic large cap std. dev.) • Annual consumption 2.8% of initial investment then inflation adjusted • 20% basis asset Monte Carlo Simulation of 3,000,000 retirement lifetimes Yeoman, John C. (2014). The economics of using a charitable remainder trust to fund a retirement portfolio. The Journal of Wealth Management, 40-50.
  30. 30. (run out of money) Failure 9.9% (Average PV of initial $) Consumed 52.88% (Average PV of initial $) for Heirs 47.12% (any payment below projected consumption) Failure 7.9% (Average PV of initial $) Consumed 53.10% (Average PV of initial $) for Heirs 61.48% Direct Investment (No Charitable Gift) Max Payout CRUT
  31. 31. The future is bright…
  32. 32. 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40% 45% 50% 55% 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014p Age 55+ charitable recipient among those with will/trust by family status Grandchildren Children only No Offspring (unmarried) No Offspring (married)
  33. 33. 9% 11% 13% 15% 17% 19% 21% 1976(78-83) 1977(77-82) 1979(75-80) 1980(74-79) 1981(73-78) 1982(72-77) 1983(71-76) 1984(70-75) 1985(69-74) 1986(68-73) 1987(67-72) 1988(66-71) 1990(64-69) 1992(62-67) 1994(60-65) 1995(58-63) 1998(56-61) 2000(54-59) 2002(52-57) 2004(50-55) 2006(48-54) Year (current age range) Percent Childless Women at Age 40-44 in U.S.
  34. 34. 0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 10% 12% 14% 16% 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014p Age 55+ inclusion of charitable recipient by education Grad School College Grad Some College HS Grad <HS Grad
  35. 35. 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 1971 1974 1977 1980 1983 1986 1989 1992 1995 1998 2001 2004 2007 2010 2013 U.S. population share with bachelor's degree+ Age 55+ Age 35-54
  36. 36. 0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 10% 12% 14% 16% 18% 20% 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014p Age 55+ charitable beneficiary among those with will/trust by giving/volunteering Volunteer Only Donor Only Both Neither
  37. 37. 30% 32% 34% 36% 38% 40% 42% 44% 46% 48% 50% Age 55+ giving ($500+) & volunteering (100+ hours) volunteer charitable giving
  38. 38. Wills that won’t What ultimately happened to those written and witnessed will documents reported during life?
  39. 39. Reported wills are often unused 17% 38% 10% 18% 11% 6% Distributed estates where decedent reported having a signed and witnessed will (n=7,150) No will found Will probated Unprobated will: nothing much of value Unprobated will: estate otherwise distributed Unprobated will: trust distributed Unprobated will: other
  40. 40. Funded trusts more likely to work 76% 10% 7% 3% 4% Distributed estates where decedent reported having a funded trust (n=1,102) Funded trust exists Probated will Otherwise divided Nothing much of value Unknown/Not yet distributed
  41. 41. Documents • The will is only a back-up document • Ask about titling and beneficiary designations (especially qualified plans!) • Most wills are never used – let me explain why • Encourage trust planning • Consider alternate will language “a dollar amount equal to __ percent of my adjusted federal gross estate…”
  42. 42. Reaching the right people at the right time
  43. 43. Who are these people?
  44. 44. Predicting who ACTUALLY leaves a charitable estate gift AT DEATH
  45. 45. Lifetime predictors of a post-mortem bequest gift
  46. 46. 1. % years giving 2. No offspring 3. Highest giving 4. % years reporting funded trust 5. Female 6. Last reported wealth 7. Not married 8. Last reported giving 9. Growing wealth 10. % years volunteering
  47. 47. Items 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 Base rate 2.36% 1.47% 1.49% 1.11% -2.73% -4.70% -3.20% -3.12% -2.89% -3.03% % years giving 8.69% 8.85%8.66% 6.40% 6.73% 5.96% 6.22% 6.16% 6.29% 5.68% No offspring 8.66%8.55% 8.60% 8.36% 9.56% 8.05% 8.00% 7.92% 7.95% Highest giving $k 0.12% 0.11% 0.11% 0.11% 0.11% 0.07% 0.07% 0.07% % years reporting trust 10.19% 10.24% 8.43% 9.45% 9.36% 9.39% 9.46% Female 2.45% 2.65% 2.00% 1.96% 1.90% 1.91% Last wealth (doubles) 0.07% 0.08% 0.08% 0.06% 0.06% Married -2.18% -2.23% -2.30% -2.26% Last giving $k 0.10% 0.10% 0.10% Wealth trend 1.76% 1.83% % years volunteering 2.41% Best 1 to 10-Item Models Other items valuable (p<.01) in larger models: Education level and Age at death
  48. 48. Predicting the actual dollars of charitable estate gifts at death Note: Dollar-based analyses are always dominated by a few major donors, so the results may be less reliable than the “yes” v. “no” question.
  49. 49. 1. Avg. annual giving 2. Ending wealth 3. No offspring 4. Last reported giving 5. % years with funded trust 6. (-) Highest ever reported wealth 7. Avg. wealth over time 8. (-) Lowest ever reported wealth 9. (-) Highest $ given in one year 10. Unmarried
  50. 50. Items 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 base rate 1,499 703 -242 -199 -826 -561 -836 -636 -567 346 Average $k giving 1,415 1,344 1,340 1,024 1,004 1,078 1,056 1,044 1,244 1,250 Last reported wealth $k 4 4 3 3 5 4 4 4 5 No offspring exists 9,774 9,722 9,815 9,807 9,917 9,868 9,844 9,325 $k of giving in last report 336 341 317 301 293 286 286 % years reporting funded trust 9,960 11,125 10,049 10,014 10,096 10,195 Highest reported wealth $k -2 -4 -5 -5 -5 Average reported wealth $k 7 10 10 10 Lowest reported wealth $k -13 -13 -12 Highest $k year of giving -113 -114 Married -2,409 Best 1 to 10-Item Models Other items valuable (p<.01) in larger models: Education level and Any Gift at Last Report
  51. 51. Reaching the right people at the right time
  52. 52. When do plans change?
  53. 53. Factors predicting when charitable plans are ADDED
  54. 54. 1. Approaching death (final pre- death survey) 2. Becoming a widow/widower 3. Diagnosed with cancer 4. Decline in self- reported health 5. Divorce 6. Diagnosed with heart problems 7. Diagnosed with a stroke 8. First grandchild 9. Increasing assets 10. Increasing charitable giving
  55. 55. Factors predicting when charitable plans are DROPPED
  56. 56. 1. Decline in self- reported health 2. Approaching death (final pre- death survey) 3. Becoming a widow/widower 4. Divorce 5. Diagnosed with cancer 6. Diagnosed with heart problems 7. Diagnosed with a stroke 8. First grandchild 9. First child 10. Exiting homeownership
  57. 57. 1. Death feels near • Final pre-death survey • Decline in self-reported health • Diagnosis with cancer • Diagnosis with heart disease • Diagnosis with stroke • Becoming a widow or widower 2. Family structure changes • Divorce • First child • First grandchild • Becoming a widow or widower Plans destabilize when
  58. 58. Most realized charitable plans (in red) added within 5 years of death 38% 13%10% 39%43% 22% 15% 20% Estates $ Gifted
  59. 59. Although most charitable plans were added within 5 years of death, ONE longer- term plan was worth FOUR first made in the last two years.
  60. 60. A 5% national sample of 2012 probate records in Australia showed an estimated • 31% of charitable wills were signed within 2 years of death • 60% were signed within 5 years of death Baker, Christopher (October, 2013) Encouraging Charitable Bequests by Australians . Asia-Pacific Centre for Social Investment & Philanthropy - Swinburne University
  61. 61. Plans destabilize as death approaches lifetime reports made as death approaches post-mortem transfers v. lifetime reports timing of the last changes made to the final will
  62. 62. 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 1993/4 to 2004 1995/6 to 2006 1998 to 2008 2000 to 2010 2002 to 2012 2004 to 2014 10-Year Retention of Charitable Estate Component 70+ 50-69
  63. 63. 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 1993/4 to 2004 1995/6 to 2006 1998 to 2008 2000 to 2010 2002 to 2012 2004 to 2014 10-Year Retention of Charitable Estate Component 70+ 50-69
  64. 64. 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 1993/4 to 2004 1995/6 to 2006 1998 to 2008 2000 to 2010 2002 to 2012 2004 to 2014 10-Year Retention of Charitable Estate Component 70+ 50-69
  65. 65. 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 1993/4 to 2004 1995/6 to 2006 1998 to 2008 2000 to 2010 2002 to 2012 2004 to 2014 10-Year Retention of Charitable Estate Component 70+ 50-69
  66. 66. 50% 55% 60% 65% 70% 75% 80% 85% 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 Charitable Plan Loss TrajectoryAmong those still alive and answering the question who reported having a charitable component in BOTH 1998 & 2000
  67. 67. So where does “Once in, Always in” come from?
  68. 68. Old data Post-mortem for largest estates Plans destabilize as death nears We can see this only in a LIFETIMEsurvey not in a ONE TIMEsurvey
  69. 69. The NCPG (2000) study showed that 90% of planned bequest donors don't change their plans Fiction Among those (avg. age of 58) WITH a charitable plan, 10% chose “Amount Decreased” when asked about their overall plan, “Has the amount of the charitable bequest ever increased or decreased?” Fact It showed that IF charity stayed in, plan changes decreased total charitable amount 10% of the time
  70. 70. Practice suggestions What now?
  71. 71. Many charities go silent at the most important point of decision. 20% 25% 30% 35% 40% 45% 50% 55% 60% 65% 70% Lifetime Giving and Volunteering by Actual Estate Donors Giving ($500+) Volunteering
  72. 72. “Count it and forget it” doesn’t work!
  73. 73. A bequest commitment is the beginning, not the end Higher value in converting to irrevocable commitments: gift annuities, charitable remainder trusts, remainder interests is homes and farms.
  74. 74. Charitable plans signed earlier DO produce larger gifts, IF they stay in (or they return later)
  75. 75. Don’t ignore your oldest supporters
  76. 76. Half of all charitable bequest dollars came from decedents this age and older… Current U.S. study (1992-2012): Age 85 New Australian study (5% sample of national probate files 2010): Age 90 Remember that most realized charitable bequests are added within 5 years of death
  77. 77. Age at Will Signing (by share of total charitable bequest $ transferred) 76% 11% 13% 80s+ 70s pre-70 Australian data from: Baker, Christopher (October, 2013) Encouraging Charitable Bequests by Australians . Asia- Pacific Centre for Social Investment & Philanthropy - Swinburne University
  78. 78. Age when charitable decedents added final charities by $ transferred 4% 14% 27%53% 2% before 60s 60s 70s 80s 90s U.S. Data: 12,238 decedents from 1992-2012 Health & Retirement Study, displaying $19,298,578 in known ($13,668,695 unknown) post- mortem charitable transfers when capped at $1MM per transfer maximum This does not count more recent wills where charity was not added. Date of charity addition is known for only 59% of charity dollars transferred. Others had charity plan when first entering the survey (median entry age 77)
  79. 79. For those 75+ with lifetime connections, stay “top of the mind” (service, service communication, mission communication, honoring/thank you, living bequest donor stories)
  80. 80. Many of our customers like to leave money to charity in their will. Are there any causes you’re passionate about? Would you like to leave any money to charity in your will? No reference to charity Charitable bequest decisions are often unstable and easily influenced Charitable plans among 1,000 testators Charitable plans among 1,000 testators Charitable plans among 1,000 testators
  81. 81. • Plans change every time a donor opens a new account with a TOD/POD or changes a joint account owner • Plans become unstable as death approaches • Stay connected! Stay communicating! The score doesn’t count until the clock runs out
  82. 82. A realistic boom is starting soon (5 years) But, trusts do Wealthy, consistent donors with a trust (especially childless and unmarried) Approaching mortality & family changes
  83. 83. My favorite student evaluation from a personal finance class… This class sucked. It was all about reality. I didn’t want to know this stuff.
  84. 84. Drilling down…
  85. 85. When death feels near or family changes plans are both dropped and added
  86. 86. Combined effect (adding less dropping) of lifetime changes on the presence of a charitable plan rankΔ factor Δ in conditional probability 1 Start (-stop) giving +7.98% 2 Start (-stop) volunteering +5.85% 3 + assets by 10k +0.01% 4 + annual volunteering hours by 100 +0.91% 5 Being diagnosed with cancer +7.28% 6 $1k change in giving to charity +0.10% 7 Becoming a widow/widower +5.72% 8 The last survey before death +5.28%
  87. 87. Race and ethnicity in charitable planning
  88. 88. 0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 10% 12% 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014p Age 55+ charitable beneficiary among those with will or trust by race/ethnicity White (NH) Black (NH) Hispanic
  89. 89. 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014p Age 55+ use of will or trust by race/ethnicity White (NH) Black (NH) Hispanic
  90. 90. 0% 1% 2% 3% 4% 5% 6% 7% 8% 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014p Age 55+ inclusion of charitable beneficiary by race/ethnicity White (NH) Black (NH) Hispanic
  91. 91. Trends in use of funded trusts
  92. 92. 25% 30% 35% 40% 45% 50% 55% 60% 65% 1995/6 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016(p) Age 55+ use of will alone by age 55-64 65-74 75+
  93. 93. 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% Age 55+ use of funded trust by age 55-64 65-74 75+
  94. 94. 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014(p) Age 55+ use of funded trust by wealth Top 20% 60%-80% 40%-60% 20%-40% Bottom 20%
  95. 95. 5% 6% 7% 8% 9% 10% 11% 12% 13% Age 55+ use of funded trust by household type Married Households Single Female HH Single Male HH
  96. 96. 0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 10% 12% 14% 16% 18% 20% 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014p Age 55+ use of funded trust by education level Grad School College Grad Some College HS Grad <HS Grad
  97. 97. 0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 10% 12% 14% 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014p Age 55+ use of funded trust by race/ethnicity White (NH) Black (NH) Hispanic
  98. 98. Additional trends
  99. 99. 7% 8% 9% 10% 11% 12% 13% 1993 1995/6 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014(p) Charitable beneficiary among those with a will or trust by age 55-64 65-74 75+
  100. 100. 35% 40% 45% 50% 55% 60% 65% 70% 75% 80% 1995/6 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014(p) Age 55+ with a will or trust by age 55-64 65-74 75+
  101. 101. 30% 35% 40% 45% 50% 55% 60% 65% 1995/6 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 (p) 2014(p) Age 55+ use of will alone by age 55-64 65-74 75+
  102. 102. 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 1993 1995/6 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014(p) Age 55+ use of funded trust by age 55-64 65-74 75+
  103. 103. 30% 35% 40% 45% 50% 55% 60% 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014p Age 55+ use of will alone by household type Married Households Single Female HH Single Male HH
  104. 104. 35% 40% 45% 50% 55% 60% 65% 70% 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014p Age 55+ use of will or trust by household type Married Households Single Female HH Single Male HH
  105. 105. 40% 45% 50% 55% 60% 65% 70% 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014p Age 55+ use of will or trust by family status Grandchildren Children only No Offspring (unmarried) No Offspring (married)
  106. 106. 35% 40% 45% 50% 55% 60% 65% 70% 75% 80% 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014p Age 55+ use of will or trust by giving and volunteering Volunteer Only Donor Only Both Neither
  107. 107. 4.0% 4.5% 5.0% 5.5% 6.0% 6.5% 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014p Age 55+ charitable beneficiary by household type Married Households Single Female HH Single Male HH
  108. 108. 4% 6% 8% 10% 12% 14% 16% 18% 20% 22% 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014p Age 55+ charitable beneficiary among those with will/trust by education level Grad School College Grad Some College HS Grad <HS Grad
  109. 109. 0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 10% 12% 14% 16% 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014(p) Age 55+ charitable beneficiary by wealth Top 20% 60%-80% 40%-60% 20%-40% Bottom 20%
  110. 110. Wills That Won't Russell James Professor Texas Tech University www.EncourageGenerosity.com/ACBD.pdf

×