6. So I learned how to forecast in
Colorado, and started to share.
Dec 2007
28 people email list
2008-2009
500 people email list
2009-2010
245,000 pageviews
2010-2011
1,315,000 pageviews
2011-2012
3,330,000 pageviews
2012-2013
12,000,000 pageviews
27. When to trust the forecast
10 days
+ storm or no storm
+ cold, hot, dry, moist
3-5 days
+ details becoming clearer
1-2 days
+ details are as clear as possible
28. How to plan
7-10 days
4-5 days
2-3 days
Toast to
possibilities
Clear your
schedule
Pretend you’re
getting sick
29. Weather is not
magic. It’s
physics.
Forecasts are rarely
perfect, but they are
getting better every year.
Study them, don’t
dismiss them.
30. Long range
forecasts stink!
We cannot reliably
predict snow
accumulations
beyond about two
weeks. Seasonal
outlooks are even worse.
34. Mountains = Precipitation
Indian Peaks /
RMNP
Park Range
Flattops
Gore
Ten Mile &
Mosquito
Grand
Mesa
Elk
Mtns
N&S
San Juans
Sawatch
Sangre de
Christo
East
San Juans
50. Colorado is a state of
extremes
The difference between a wet
year and a dry year can come
down to the presence or absence
of just a few major storms.
Joe Ramey, National Weather Service Grand Juntion, Slide #8 2009-2010 Winter Outlook for Colorado
51. Colorado is a state of
extremes
More than half of the total annual
precipitation falls in only 20% of
the days when precipitation
occurs.
Joe Ramey, National Weather Service Grand Juntion, Slide #8 2009-2010 Winter Outlook for Colorado